@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:
livinglava wrote:Such a timeline is too detailed to be accurate.
Even if their figures are off by a little bit, the general gist of the timeline is accurate. Things are going to get a lot warmer if we don't take steps.
The problem is that you have to first grasp that Earth is a mechanical system that has an established feed of solar energy, which it has evolved in tandem with for as long as it has existed.
You also have to realize that you can't just put a bunch of solar shields in orbit around Earth and have them stay there permanently and not break down due to bombardment by xrays, cosmic rays, dust/debris, and other exposure to energy that's they're not shielded from the way they would be if they were closer to sea level.
Chlorophyll has evolved to reflect energy abundantly. It does so to retard/slow the rate at which energy is absorbed by leaves/trunk/branches/soil because everything has to stay hydrated to survive.
Trees and plants also absorb latent heat from their surroundings and warmer cells transport nutrients and grow at a faster rate. So trees/plants are designed/evolved to use the latent waste heat of the environment to grow leaves/canopies that reflect sunlight.
So when you talk about building and launching solar shields around the planet, you are talking about huge quantities of energy that have to be somehow harvested/mined from Earth's energy budget and then used to make and deploy a huge number of artificial solar shields that would need to cover an area greater than that of the Earth at sea level (which is already enormous).
And you can't just build and deploy these shields once and forget about them; you'd have to maintain them the same as you'd maintain a roof or solar array that breaks down and needs repairs and replacement that costs lots of effort, energy, and materials.
I think you should put some effort into thinking about how a forest canopy, whether it's a rain forest or a deciduous forest or a northern boreal forest or an established agricultural orchard maintains itself by growing/dropping seeds, which automatically/naturally sprout and grow to replace their aging parents.
You can't engineer a system that automatically builds and deploys orbital solar shields by absorbing some of the solar energy they are reflecting, so that the net effect of systemic entropy doesn't affect Earth's energy budget.
For argument's sake, let's say you could design such a system and then just 'seed' an automated solar-shield-factory that flies itself around the solar system using only solar power, gathers materials it needs to reproduce itself, and then brings the solar shields back to Earth orbit so that the overall solar shield maintains itself indefinitely without polluting the Earth with unmanageable debris OR depleting the Earth of energy/resources needed to maintain various aspects of the system.
I find that about as likely as the prospect of building a fleet of self-driving cars and automated infrastructure machines that reproduce themselves while maintaining a sustainable infrastructure that keeps humans in harmony with restored/natural climate.
I'm not saying they both aren't interesting prospects to theorize and critically plan/assess; but I think you have to proceed from the restriction that you don't allot Earth's energy to achieving them; because the moment you invent a project/process that taps into Earth's energy budget, you're initiating a pattern of dependency that will be difficult if not impossible to reform over time.
Whenever an industrial/economic pattern is launched and established, eventual reform prospects get thwarted and/or suppressed in the interest of protecting the economic interests that would be interrupted by reforms.
Humans struggle to preserve status quo and avert change, so it doesn't make sense to begin projects that are unsustainable with the intent of reforming them later to become sustainable. New projects should already be sustainable when they are initiated, and otherwise it should be 'back to the drawing board' to make them permanently sustainable and non-harmful from the start.