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The meaning of getting to Mars? Your view?

 
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 05:52 pm
@livinglava,
livinglava wrote:
The Earth doesn't get too much sunlight. If it did, trees and plants and the many species that live underneath their shady canopies wouldn't be able to survive. Drought and desertification would have long ago taken over the planet, before humans started moving all the underground carbon/energy to the atmosphere and deforesting the land.

Did you read the timeline? In the future we are going to be getting WAY too much sunlight.

In fact, if we do not take steps, we will eventually find ourselves INSIDE THE SUN.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 06:07 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:
I've been reading a bit about a space station to orbit the moon. Which is most likely, a moon base or space station?

A space station would be easier. It would be a good intermediate step on the road to a permanent base on the surface.

If you stay in orbit you avoid all the technical challenges of safely descending to the surface without crashing, as well as all the technical challenges of how to escape the surface gravity when you are ready to go back home.

The same applies even more so with Mars since there is more gravity and more atmosphere. Orbiting is much easier than descending to the surface safely.

Although with Mars there probably won't be any need for a way to escape the surface gravity. Any astronauts who land on Mars will probably be volunteers on a one-way trip to a permanent colony.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 07:31 pm
Geeze, the ignorance here is breathtaking. When our star heats up, in one to one and a half billion years, it will roast the Earth, and roast Mars to a cinder. There are several people here who demonstrate that they know nothing about this star system, and so-called outer space entirely.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 07:39 pm
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:
When our star heats up, in one to one and a half billion years, it will roast the Earth,

Unless we take steps to deflect most of that energy away from the Earth.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 08:02 pm
@oralloy,
Dream on . . .
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 08:16 pm
Maybe we could move Jupiter between us and the sun.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 08:44 pm
@Setanta,
It's worth a try. Is there any reason why deflecting a portion of the sunlight away from the Earth couldn't work?

Considering that this thread has talked about terraforming planets, simply deflecting sunlight seems like a relatively easy undertaking.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 08:45 pm
@edgarblythe,
Jupiter would be pretty hard to move. Plus it wouldn't be much of a shield.

Orbiting mirrors though would seem to be a good way of defecting sunlight away from the earth.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 09:47 pm
@oralloy,
The article in NATURE, last year, presented the detailed model that predicts the length of time we have on the planet before it becomes unlivable. Due to the several fusion reactions of H1 to H2 and He and protons into He4, the gradual "heat up will be occuring over about a billion years before the oceans begin to evaporate and earth turns into Venus ( the resultant atmospheric pressure will be based primarily on what we call STEAM) . So we have about a Billionyears in which we can try a number of tricks like what Ollie said (Im not a fan of stopgaps that have no evidence of working unless we do some modelling, materials testing well before we do any in situ testing of the concept). I envision, if all looks reasonable, testing the energy dispersion fields along earths equator where we could actually measure effects accurately before we run and design a Space Trabant ).

HOWEVER, At the same time we need to be doing heavy planning for intermediate and long term settlement for our species off our planet . Mars will only give us a "Setback" time of some tens of millions of years and maybe after Mars, a Jovian or Saturnian satellite . ALL this as a precursor to leaving the solar system on an eviction notice delivered via physics.

Realize what this will do to civilizations on the planet? We will be forced to work together or be wiped out because we were too dim to think in more than 1 dimension.

When you think about how long it would take to reach earth like planets based on our present level of science?? Knowing that, at least, should make us realize that we really dont have a lot of time.

farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 09:54 pm
@farmerman,
That Billion years is not a number with a fixed terminus. We will be going through a gradual warm up and perhaps we will need some energy dispersive gizmos earlier into the next Billion.
e are going to need lots of aero space and climate engineers over th nwxt millions of years.


Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 11:42 pm
That idea of using mirrors, etc., is rather like carrying a parasol while walking up to a raging inferno.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Feb, 2020 11:47 pm
@Setanta,
Would they not reflect sunlight away from the Earth? It seems a shame to abandon the Earth a few hundred million years from now when we could instead have billions of years left to live on Earth.
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 06:23 am
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

livinglava wrote:
The Earth doesn't get too much sunlight. If it did, trees and plants and the many species that live underneath their shady canopies wouldn't be able to survive. Drought and desertification would have long ago taken over the planet, before humans started moving all the underground carbon/energy to the atmosphere and deforesting the land.

Did you read the timeline? In the future we are going to be getting WAY too much sunlight.

In fact, if we do not take steps, we will eventually find ourselves INSIDE THE SUN.

Such a timeline is too detailed to be accurate. It would be like trying to predict exactly what sicknesses and disabilities you will incur and when in the long process of dying.

I have always read that the sun will eventually balloon into a red giant star and engulf the Earth, yes, but there could be a lot of variation between now and then.

It wouldn't make sense to start radically geoengineering the planet in preparation for future timeline events, not only because there is always uncertainty in prediction, but also because (geo)engineering is different than restoration of natural function.

Restoring natural climate is insurance against radical change. It is fundamentally conservative to restore natural systems based on the FACT that the Earth has evolved sustainably in the absence of human industrial/engineering since its earliest form.

Humans have evolved the intelligence and ability to harness natural resources to (geo)engineer incredible technologies and architectural/infastructural feats, but doing so fails to take into consideration the longer term consequences of disrupting natural ecosystemic biological/geological patterns that have always sustained the planet.

It makes sense for humans to (geo/bio)engineer nature and develop/use industrial technologies in some ways; but it also makes sense to reduce/minimize the level of disruption to natural systems/cycles human activities have; i.e. because that provides the greatest guarantee that humans won't have messed up the Earth beyond repair at some point in the future.

So, for example, when developing land, it makes sense to keep as much natural ecosystemic activity alive/functioning within the developed area instead of killing/clearing it all away and replacing it with dead buildings and pavement. When growing trees/plants/animals for food, it makes sense to look at how the natural local ecology/hydrology sustains itself and try to fit agriculture in a way that is minimally disruptive. We have seen the effects that invasive species can have over time and so we should think ahead and minimize our use of such species, even when we can't eliminate them completely because they provide benefits that can't be sacrificed completely.

In short, the principle that should guide human activity with regard to (geo/bio)engineering is minimal impact in order to retain and conserve natural ecosystems and other patterns that have been evolving in the absence of humans and have thus achieved a level of stability and thus sustainability that we can't assume is achievable when human activities change natural patterns more radically.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 08:27 am
Oralloy can stay here if he wants. I'm going to a different star with a hospitable planet.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 08:37 am
@oralloy,
You really don't understand the scale of this. That's why I made reference to ignorance in an earlier post. To say that someone is ignorant is not an insut, and ignorance is a curable condition. The diameter of the sun in 0.1 astronomical units. An astronomical unit is 93,000,000 miles. When the sun swells to a red giant, its diameter will be two astronomical units. That means that at the closet pass, the Earth would be passing through the prominence of the solar corona. Mercury and Venus will have already been engulfed. That's why I compared it to carrying a parasol to go stand by a raging inferno. No, you're not going to be able to reflect the solar radiation away.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 08:43 am
@edgarblythe,
we will miss swimming if we stay on earth. The sun will gradually grow as the 2nd segment of He4 is consumed in large. "Blocking the light as the entire sun expands will need to be demoed really well an convincingly. Noone has proposed a model of a condition with
1. a non point source of energy
2. a growing ball of non point energy
3. reviewing (3) above, non point growing sphere of energy that is over a medium size planet composed of 78% water

Im dubious about the solar geophysics and changing nuke physics to be able to predict success of shading th earth.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 08:50 am
We could hire artists to wrap Earth in Reynolds Wrap.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 08:51 am
@edgarblythe,
is Chrisco still alive Wink ?
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 04:02 pm
@livinglava,
livinglava wrote:
Such a timeline is too detailed to be accurate.

Even if their figures are off by a little bit, the general gist of the timeline is accurate. Things are going to get a lot warmer if we don't take steps.
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Fri 21 Feb, 2020 04:09 pm
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:
That Billion years is not a number with a fixed terminus. We will be going through a gradual warm up and perhaps we will need some energy dispersive gizmos earlier into the next Billion.
e are going to need lots of aero space and climate engineers over th nwxt millions of years.

Yes. That is the point that I've been trying to make. While I do think it is possible to protect from the red giant phase if we make enough of an effort, you guys are jumping to conclusions that my mirror comments are all about the red giant. Mirrors can deflect light away from the Earth before the red giant phase too.
0 Replies
 
 

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