The New Statesman | 23 June 2003 issue
Iraq - the issue we have chosen to forget
The law of inverse proportions applies to Iraq. The greater the death
toll, the less we in Britain seem to care. Each report of violence, each new
piece of evidence of pre-war miscreance by our politicians produces the
same shrug of the shoulders. And yet
nearly six months after elections
that were supposed to herald a new era, that were (very briefly) seized upon by a cheerleading clique as "vindication" of the Blair-Bush 2003
adventure, the situation deteriorates on a number of fronts.
After a short lull in February and March, in which attacks on coalition
troops dipped to "only" 35 a day,
the violence is once more rising
rapidly. It takes many forms and has many effects; it perpetuates a sense of lawlessness and fear; it confines occupying US troops mainly to their barracks; it further undermines the fledgling political process; it
prevents meaningful economic activity; it makes a mockery of the more
sanguine predictions of a winter of troop reductions and early
withdrawals.
By far the biggest casualties are Iraqis, particularly those who have enlisted in the security forces. As
the Americans training them readily admit, the recruits have applied not out of the goodness of their
hearts, but because in most parts of the country it is the only way to earn a living. And now the Iraqi government, under instruction from
Washington, is poised to make matters worse with a plan for huge cuts in the public sector. Iraq has been told that it has to reduce public spending under a debt-reduction scheme sponsored by, you've guessed it, the
International Monetary Fund. Given that the public sector accounts for about a half of the jobs anywhere in the country, any cuts will exacerbate social tensions.
In the sweltering heat of an Iraqi summer, the suffering continues,
with intermittent energy supplies, widespread health problems (including
malnutrition among children) and a growing lack of safe drinking water
and sanitation (40 per cent of Baghdad households report sewage on their
streets). More than two years after the US rolled into Baghdad, it is a
dismal stock-take for the Pax Americana.
Both sides are involved in a war of attrition, a war without end. US
forces, now supported by British warplanes, make sporadic attacks on
insurgent strongholds of devastating magnitude but dwindling
effectiveness.
The near destruction of Fallujah won them a few months of relative
quiescence, at the expense of an estimated 700 deaths. Recently, it
seems the insurgents have regained a foothold in the city. The aim of
Operation Lightning around Baghdad and Operation Spear by the Syrian border is to "pacify" troublesome areas. The result of these actions is to stoke anger and increase the pool of young suicide bombers from which the various terrorist groups can now pick and choose.
The Americans long ago gave up any pretence at a hearts-and-minds
strategy.
Apart from the odd "spontaneous" conversation with a shopkeeper for the
cameras, with heavy reinforcements at the ready, the US confines itself
to brute force. About 60,000 Iraqis are now said to be held in detention
centres, with fewer than a third of the detainees registered. The others
have simply disappeared, with their relatives unable to contact them.
Military commanders are planning to relocate troops from Iraq's towns,
moving them to four giant blast-proof bases. But, as the recent attacks
on targets next to Baghdad's government and security "green zone" testify, nowhere is safe.
For the first time in a while, Iraq is beginning to flicker on the US
political radar.
A steady stream of documents in recent weeks has shown
the extent to which Tony Blair and his advisers accepted in the summer of
2002 that George W Bush had committed to war, and how they set themselves the task of making the facts fit the political exigency, even though they knew that the Americans had made no preparation for a "protracted and costly" occupation.
The revelations have received considerable coverage in the serious
segments of the US press. In the UK they have barely registered. On 30 May, the New Statesman disclosed "spikes" of bombardment by the British and US air forces designed to provoke Saddam Hussein into war nine months before actual hostilities began. With a few honourable exceptions, most UK media have done Blair's business for him. They have decreed the general election as the cut-off point for Iraq and decided that readers and viewers have "moved on".
Conspiracy? Laziness? Or, perhaps, the unfortunate reality is that in
our minds we have raised the bar so high that only the most heinous acts or revelations have an effect. It seems that we are all unshockable now.
http://www.newstatesman.com/nsleader.htm