Should I exempt from the military if it means that a big part of my society would hate me?

I’m 18 years old and I live in Israel and soon I'm going to be evaluated on whether I'm fit for the military or not. I'm quite certain that with my mental health background I could choose to be exempted from it or, I could say that I feel great mentally and go to the military. I know for a fact that if I exempt from the military (no matter what the reason is) a big chunk of my society will despise me for it. I also know that if I choose to exempt from the military, it’s because I don’t want to spend 3 years of my life doing something that I hate and that would hardly benefit me in the rest of my life. So basically, my reasoning for exiting the military is purely selfish. But, if I come to the conclusion that the most probable outcomes of me leaving the military would be that the world either doesn’t change at all or that it becomes a better place, I would then be able to feel good about myself and my decision and on top of that, whenever I’ll receive any sort of message saying I’m a terrible person for exiting the military it wouldn’t hurt me because I’ll know that the truth is that I’ve either bettered the world or I didn’t hurt it in any way.
So the question then becomes, can I measure the most probable outcomes of me leaving the military? So now my thinking process is this, unless I become a super famous figure, my decision isn’t likely to influence other people to exempt from the military (for their various reasons). And in this case, my decision probably has very little impact at all on the world and in turn I am able to take the moral high-ground by saying that my decision hasn’t done any harm to the world and I can “deflect” any hate messages I get saying I’m an awful person for exempting from the military. But in the other scenario where I do become a successful influential figure (it might be important to mention that my intention is to get there at some point) now the most probable outcome is that I’ve also influenced other people to do what I did and exempt from the military.
And now the question becomes, assuming that I’ve influenced enough people to exit the military to make any sort of difference in the world, would that difference be good or bad? To specify the question: if the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) are weakened (since fewer people enroll) would that do good to the world? Perhaps it would save more Palestinian lives because the IDF can’t afford to use as much force as they could before against Palestinians. Or maybe because the IDF is now weaker, it would pressure Israel to come up with a peace solution quicker. Or on the flip side, maybe if the IDF is weaker Hamas would decide it’s time to start a war and a lot of lives from both sides would be lost.
Are these outcomes too “far out there”? Is it even possible to measure the probable outcome of the world by me exempting from the military? Or maybe the question is different, perhaps because my intended career paths (director/actor/internet personality) all include being an influential figure and therefore I go forward with my exemption knowing that if I succeed with my goals it would result in other people exempting the question is now isolated to the outcome of the IDF weakening. That’s important because now even if the probability that my exemption is actually going to weaken the IDF is very low it still doesn’t matter because I exempted with a goal (my career path) that basically guarantees that (in some degree). So if I find out that a weakened IDF would be bad for the world I would blame myself for it even if it didn’t actually happen in reality.
I thought about this a lot, and I don’t think I could even roughly predict the probable outcome of that. And if I can’t find any probable outcome in which the IDF weakening is either good for the world or bad for the world I can assume that it is neutral, right? If so, that would mean that my decision to exit the military is morally neutral too correct? If this is the conclusion I come to, then I could happily exempt from the military because now I won’t feel bad about myself and I won’t be affected by negative comments later on saying I’m a bad person for exiting the military because I would know that it’s not true since I haven’t caused any harm to the world.
Do you think this logic is correct? I would really appreciate it if you could point out any flaws in my thinking or answer any of my other questions if you think your answer would be able to lead me to a final conclusion on which I could base my decision upon. I would also like to point out that I often get in these thought loops where I overthink and analyze a problem so much until it grows way out of proportion and it stops making any sense. Which is why I legitimately don’t know if all these different aspects of my problem that I’ve detailed in this letter are just a complete irrational mess or not.
In any case though, thanks for your time and help.