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Moving past the middle of the end now

 
 
JTT
 
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2005 07:14 am
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/14/opinion/main688188.shtml

Bush is Tanking

Did you notice this one? A Gallup-CNN-USA Today poll at the end of last week found that 50 percent of American adults now believe that the Bush administration "deliberately misled" them about why we had to go to war in Iraq. It seems fair to say that the average respondent will have understood that "deliberately misled" is a polite way of saying the word "lie"; so, in sum, every other American adult believes the president and his apparatchiks lied us into war.

That's an astonishing fact: The president of the United States has no credibility with half of the adult citizenry on a defining question of his tenure that happens to have sent more than 1,500 young Americans to their graves (and in another recent poll, 53 percent said the war wasn't worth the costs). This was never remotely true of Bill Clinton or any modern president going back decades. George W. Bush defenders will invoke Harry Truman, but while it's true that Truman was profoundly unpopular at the end of his second term over the Korean War, the American people at least didn't blame him for lying us into it.

Combine this finding with other recent polls putting Bush's approval rating at 44 or 45 percent, which is the lowest of any sitting two-term president at this point in his tenure in decades. Bush is objectively and without question one of the most unpopular presidents of the last 80 years: Herbert Hoover after the Depression; Truman after Korea; Richard Nixon after Watergate; Jimmy Carter after Iran. Bush is right there with them.

And yet: Why do I suspect that if you asked Washington's top 100 agenda-setting journalists -- Tim Russert, George Will, Tom Friedman, etc. etc. -- whether Bush deliberately misled us into war, no more than about 15 or 20 of them would acknowledge what the half the American public sees clearly? Why do I still hear some of these bigfoots speak emphatically of a "popular wartime president"?

In the spring of 2003, when I was a Shorenstein fellow up at Harvard, NPR's Linda Wertheimer came to speak. The audience of people on the Shorenstein Center's mailing list tilted -- I will not deny it -- heavily liberal.
The guests peppered Wertheimer with questions about why the press wasn't tougher on Bush. She instructed the audience to look at the polls; Bush's approval rating was above 60 percent, and when a president's that popular, it's tough for the media to do its job and place itself so out of step with public opinion.

Funny, I thought: Clinton's approval rating was higher than 60 percent pretty much throughout 1998, the year of Monica, but somehow the press didn't seem to mind being out of step with public opinion then. (In case you're dubious about this assertion: May 1, 1998, Field Poll, 64 percent; August 23, 1998, Los Angeles Times, the week after Clinton 'fessed up about having "inappropriate" relations with Monica, 65 percent; December 20, 1998, CNN, just after the House voted the articles of impeachment, 73 percent; et cetera.)

Of course, "Linda Wertheimer" and "Washington journalism" are not the same thing, but her comments about Bush struck me as awfully representative of the media as a whole after September 11 and in the run-up to the Iraq War.

But what about today? Bush is tanking. The public thinks that his war wasn't worth it and that he lied about it. His Social Security scheme is distrusted and detested by most Americans. His decision to fly back to Washington from Crawford to "err on the side of life" was opposed by a massive majority. He's still liked personally, but he's doing virtually nothing with which the people he was elected to serve agree. His Republican colleagues in Congress are even more unpopular.

But with all this, the media are still reflexively deferential to this administration. There's more reporting now that cuts against that narrative than there was a few months ago. But the underlying assumptions of coverage are still that Bush is a strong leader and that anything that doesn't go his way is an aberration.

Journalists love to say at awards dinners and such-like events that they are the people's eyes and ears, the watchdogs of the public. But the people, in fact, are way ahead of them. Again: Bush is objectively one of the least popular presidents in modern American history. Let's hope the day may come when you don't have to visit the Prospect to read that sentence.


Michael Tomasky is the Prospect's executive editor.
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goodfielder
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2005 07:42 am
But...but....but....the media is *gasp* liberal! Isn't it?

Okay sarcasm off, contempt on....the media are not watchdogs, they haven't got the heart of Benji or the brains of my own dog (and she ain't got much but I love her dearly), they are cowardly curs, frightened of their real owners. Liberal media? Bah!
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farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2005 07:48 am
And here we are , going into another recession.(This too will be spun so that Bush had nothing to do with it)
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JTT
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Apr, 2005 03:56 am
The inescapable conclusion; the envelope, please, ... and the winner is ...


http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/images/blbushdumbpeople.htm
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revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Apr, 2005 06:25 am
I am glad that people are finally able to see past the spin. You have to admit though the Bush administration were very good at pushing buttons after 9/11.

About the media, in America there are two sets, the cable news which is largely conservative and the so called abc channels which is more to the left than the conservative news on cable channels. IMO
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Baldimo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Apr, 2005 09:07 pm
Cable news is more conservative? Besides Foxnews which other news channels are conserative?
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edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Apr, 2005 09:13 pm
Oh, no; Clinton's sex life is responsible for the new recession that's coming.
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Baldimo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Apr, 2005 09:19 pm
I would think it is the low $ as well as govt over spending.
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goodfielder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Apr, 2005 09:36 pm
Twin deficits makes for the low dollar. Being in super massive debt to Japan and China doesn't help. The US economy has to get back on its feet or we'll all suffer. For that alone the Bushii will be seen to be a fool and a total failure as President.
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watchmakers guidedog
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Apr, 2005 01:59 am
The media is usually neither liberal nor conservative. Rather they are self-interested capitalist bodies. They craft the news to sell papers and draw eyes to the advertisements in their television.

Sometimes a corporation that gives them advertising money is let off the hook. Sometimes they support governments that offer to give them helpful legislation. Sometimes they get involved in shady deals.

But most often they're just out for a buck.
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JTT
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Apr, 2005 04:16 am
Baldimo wrote:
I would think it is the low $ as well as govt over spending.


Come on, Baldimo, you can do it! Just one more tiny step. And who might you think would be responsible for that?
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JTT
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Apr, 2005 04:29 am
The mission of the Media Research Center is to bring balance and responsibility to the news media. Leaders of America's conservative movement have long believed that within the national news media a strident liberal bias existed that influenced the public's understanding of critical issues. On October 1, 1987, <b>a group of young determined conservatives set out to not only prove - through sound scientific research - that liberal bias in the media does exist and undermines traditional American values, but also to neutralize its impact on the American political scene.</b> What they launched that fall is the now acclaimed --- Media Research Center (MRC).

JTT: I am flabbergasted! I wonder, are these bright lights aware of the existence of "objectivity"?

This, above, is unbelievably laughable. In a scientific study, one does not set out to prove one's theory. In circumstances like this, the theory is proven before you get out of the gate.

Perhaps this is why academic institutions have more liberals; from this, it appears that conservatives are simply too dumb to make the grade.

I'm almost beginning to feel sorry for them.
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revel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Apr, 2005 12:34 pm
JTT; interesting. I am not questioning but wanting to know more about what you just described about that conservative study, do you have a link?
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revel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Apr, 2005 12:46 pm
I found one, is this what you are talking about?

http://www-csli.stanford.edu/~nunberg/MRC.html

Another Party Heard From

(Posted 6/28/02)


Yet another study of partisan labeling, this one from the conservative Media Research Center , in an effort to redeem Bernard Goldberg's claim that the media label conservatives more often than liberals.

The MRC looked at the use of the words liberal and conservative in five years' worth of network news, culling out nonpolitical uses of the terms (e.g., "a conservative estimate"), references to foreign politics, and duplicate records. They then determined that the word conservative is used about four times as frequently as liberal, a result they trumpet as showing that "reporters are actually four times more likely to label conservatives than liberals."

Not so fast -- the study actually proves nothing of the sort. Iindeed, it proves nothing at all -- the MRC has cooked the books in a way that even an Arthur Andersen accountant would blush to own up to.

For one thing, the MRC study didn't actually look at political labeling as such, but merely the uses of the terms conservative and liberal in their political senses. That means that they included not just phrases like "conservative Senator Jesse Helms" but sentences like "Hard-core conservatives have created a new verb, ?'Borked,' after 1987 Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork." But the latter are obviously irrelevant to the claims made by Goldberg and others. After all, if the media merely said things like "conservatives did such-and-such" more often than "liberals did such-and-such," it wouldn't suggest a liberal bias -- not unless, in the familiar paranoid style, you assume that anyone who is talking about you must be saying something bad. (By that same logic, you could argue that the fact that the press mentions Sharon more than Arafat demonstrates its anti-Israel bias.)

In fact the MRC admit that most of their examples were of this generic type -- itself enough to invalidate the study -- but they are curiously diffident about giving an exact breakdown of how many instances of liberal and conservative were actually used to label a specific politician or group. And given that the MRC study didn't bother to separate out the uses of conservative and liberal that actually function as labels, they weren't in a position to answer the central question in all these studies: what's the relative frequency with which such labels are applied to politicians on either side?

What we want to know, that is, is what the odds are that a given liberal or conservative politician will be given a partisan label. But to make that determination, you have to tabulate labels as a proportion of overall mentions of the names of the people in question -- the procedure followed both in my own study and in a study of labeling by conservative blogger Edward Boyd . After all, the fact that the label conservative apappears more frequently than the label liberal is meaningless by itself if the overall mentions of conservative and liberal groups and individuals are not proportionate. If Jesse Helms and Paul Wellstone are both labeled ten percent of the time but Helms is mentioned five times as often as Wellstone, then you would expect to find five times as many labels for Helms as for Wellstone.

And in fact it's clear that liberal and conservative politicians and groups are not mentioned with equal frequency in the press. In Boyd's survey, conservative politicians were mentioned overall more than two-and-a-half times as frequently as liberals, which was pretty much what I found in my study. And my study and others have showed that groups like the Heritage Foundation are mentioned four times as frequently as liberal groups like the ADA. By failing to correct for these differences, the MRC study stacked the deck -- it turns a discrepancy in the overall number of mentions of liberal and conservative politicians into a specious discrepancy in the frequency with which they are labeled. Once again, the press are being charged with a liberal bias because they mention liberals less than they do conservatives.

Is MRC simply too dim to understand this? Not likely. In fact the MRC has used proportional counts in other studies , when it seemed convenient to do so. And they were well aware of both my study and Boyd's, which appropriately used proportional counts. (To his credit, Boyd himself has pointed out the limitations of the MRC method and agrees with these criticisms.) So they knew what the correct procedure was, but didn't want to use it. Or what's equally likely, they actually did the right sort of analysis and then decided not to report it, since it didn't produce the results they were after.

One further point that MRC somehow didn't get around to reporting is how often labels are used in the abstract -- are politicians and groups labeled one percent of the time, five percent of the time, twenty percent of the time? The omission is particularly significant because in earlier comments, MRC pooh-poohed my own study on the grounds that the overall proportion of labelings was very low:

In fact, Nunberg's "30 percent" gap was between how the liberals were labeled 3.78 percent of the time and the conservatives were tagged 2.89 percent of the time. If the MRC ever did a study which found that kind of puny difference we wouldn't claim a 30 percent disparity. We'd say the media basically hardly ever do x or y. So, if you buy Nunberg's numbers he only found that newspapers hardly ever label anybody, not that liberals are labeled significantly more often.
Yet when they actually did get around to doing that study, this particular Post-It seems to have slipped off their refrigerator door -- they somehow neglected to report what the overall proportion of labeling was. Why am I not surprised?

Added 6/30: One other thing that occurs to me: If the study doesn't bother to compute the proportions of liberals and conservatives who were labeled, it does at least allow us to infer just how frequently network TV labels politicians overall. The MRC looked at five years worth of broadcasts from the three major networks -- that is, at a total of about 1875 hours of network news (= three networks times five half-hour broadcasts per week for five years). They found a total of 924 uses of liberal and conservative as political terms, of which they admit that "most" were not labelings of individual politicians and groups. If, say, a third of the uses did involve such labelings, that means that the labelings occurred at a rate of about one every six hours of broadcasting on each network. That is, politicans were labeled by the networks at a rate of one every two-and-a-half weeks. And they don't call that "hardly ever"?

Added 6/30: In an email to the Washington Times in response to my criticisms, an MRC spokeman says: " Only someone with absolutely no first-hand knowledge of the ABC, CBS and NBC newscasts could suggest that conservatives were discussed four times more often than liberals." In other words: "Um, well, we didn't actually count the disparities in mention between liberals and conservatives."

Well, let's see if we can help. In one of the few claims that does in fact give enough information to be checked proportionately, the MRC study reports that the conservative label is applied to Supreme Court justices 49 times while the liberal label is used only 24 times, a two-to-one discrepancy. But now consider how often the names of justices on both sides have been mentioned on NBC news broadcasts over the past five years, using figures from the same Nexis database that the MRC claims to have used:

Mentions of liberal justices: Breyer (8), Stevens (16), Ginsburg (7), Souter (7): Total mentions: 40

Mentions of conservative justices: Rehnquist (104), Thomas (40), Scalia (50), Kennedy(14), O'Connor (40). Total mentions: 248.

Ratio of mentions of conservative to mentions of liberal justices: 6.2 to 1.

Ratio of total number of conservative labels to total number of liberal labels applied to justices: 2 to 1.

In other words, if we take the NBC figures as roughly representative of the networks as a whole, the MRC study shows that liberal justices are proportionately labeled three times more frequently than conservatives are. Bias indeed.

(With a six-million dollar budget, can't these guys hire a statistician?)
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