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Oil $105 a barrel.

 
 
au1929
 
Reply Sat 2 Apr, 2005 08:51 am
Oil prices jumped 3.4 percent to a record yesterday, prompted by concerns over the level of gasoline stockpiles in the United States before the summer driving season.

The May contract for crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.87 and settled at $57.27 a barrel after reaching $57.70 in earlier trading. The closing futures price was the highest since trading began in 1983.

Gasoline futures in New York trading also rose, closing up 7 cents, to $1.73 a gallon. They have jumped 10 percent in the last three days.

The increase in oil prices and concerns over a pickup in inflation have rippled through stock markets. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 99.46 points, or nearly 1 percent yesterday, to 10,404.30 points. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 14.42 points, to 1,984.81.

Oil markets continue to be rocked by the tightness in global production and concerns over rising demand. These issues, along with unexpected interruptions from producers like Iraq or Venezuela, have contributed to a 67 percent jump in oil prices in the last year.


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/02/business/02oil.html?th&emc=th

The price of a barrel of oil is $57 and as some experts in the field are now predicting is on it's way up to $105. What effect will that have on the US economy, the stock market, employment, housing market .
Can the US government do anything to lessen the impact? Are they powerless, do not have the will or are they inept.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 706 • Replies: 15
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 Apr, 2005 10:53 am
Glad I bought a bicycle. Anyone want to invest in my commuter rail company?

Heh

The US gov't won't do anything to lessen the impact of this oil price rise, as it is in many ways exactly what those in power want. Though the economy may suffer somewhat, the oil companies are going to make a killing overall, and we all know who is in bed with them..

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
rodeman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 Apr, 2005 12:18 pm
Bush, Oil, Cheney, Energy, Oil, Cheney, Bush, Energy..........?

What a co-winky-dink......?
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 Apr, 2005 09:54 pm
Well, we have all the free oil in Iraq. Perhaps we should send oer a couple dozen super tankers.
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Apr, 2005 04:22 pm
USA > Economy
from the April 05, 2005 edition

Oil cost stokes push for policy

Congress begins work Tuesday on a bill to boost production and conservation.

By Gail Russell Chaddock | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON – For a generation Americans have commuted, heated their homes, manufactured goods, and expanded foreign trade without any major overhaul of energy policy. Proponents of oil exploration and conservation never went away, but their urgings were muffled by an era of relatively cheap oil.


Now the momentum is finally shifting.

With crude oil topping $55 a barrel and 55 Republicans in the US Senate - up from 50 before the November elections - major energy legislation now appears much more likely to pass than it did even a year ago.

Monday oil traded briefly above a new high of $58 a barrel. Prospects ranging from terrorist attacks on critical oil facilities in the Middle East to soaring prices at US gas pumps this summer have rattled Wall Street and are giving new urgency to efforts backed by President Bush and key lawmakers.

It remains uncertain how those efforts will play out. But as a House committee begins to mark up its bill Tuesday, a range of options, from drilling in Alaskan wilderness to expanding conservation efforts, are politically possible, thanks in part to new coalitions of business, conservation, and national-security groups.

"Oil prices are at record highs and every day we grow more dependent on foreign sources of oil," says Rep. Joe Barton (R) of Texas, chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

This marks the third Congress that has attempted to pass an energy bill in the Bush presidency. Each time, bills cleared the GOP-controlled House but failed in negotiations with the Senate over issues such as drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) or immunity for groundwater polluters.

But the new party balance in the Senate, as well as pressure from new alliances of interest groups, could tip the balance.

A first sign of the new calculus on Capitol Hill came last month, as the Senate voted 51-49 to open the ANWR to oil and gas drilling. Four of those votes came from newly elected GOP senators who replaced Democrats who opposed drilling in the Alaskan refuge. That doesn't represent final approval for this measure, but by attaching the ANWR proposal to the fiscal 2006 budget resolution, Republican leaders hope to avoid the filibusters that derailed such legislation in the past.

At the same time, the possibility that some crisis could push petroleum prices still higher, even to $100 a barrel, is fueling pressure for more serious conservation proposals to curb petroleum use.

The real cost of oil isn't just the prices paid at the pump, but also some $400 billion to support US military presence in the Middle East - and the constant threat of disruptions in that region, critics say.

"People are starting to wake up to the fact that we do have a problem with oil revenues being used to support instability and terrorism around the world. That's making the politics more favorable toward fuel efficiency," says Jim Presswood, energy advocate at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington.

Last month, the NRDC joined a new campaign sponsored by 26 former national-security officials to reduce US oil consumption. The Set America Free initiative calls for a national commitment to produce more fuel-efficient cars (gasoline accounts for about half of US oil consumption) and oil alternatives.

"There is a real national-security emergency in the making, and we have an opportunity to utilize existing technologies to make a difference in our vulnerabilities," says Frank Gaffney, a former Reagan official who heads the Center for Security Policy in Washington.

The current House bill and White House policy reflect the conventional wisdom that the US economy remains heavily dependent on oil, and the solution is finding more of it, says Mr. Gaffney. "We're saying: We're heavily dependent on oil. We know where most of it is, and it's ill-advised [for us] to remain heavily dependent on oil.... So let's go get alternative means" of powering the economy.

The House bill would take other significant steps. It aims to boost US refining capacity by accelerating the review and approval process for new refineries in "refinery revitalization zones." It would override state and local authorities on siting power plants - a move that could boost prospects for a $20 billion proposal for new power lines from Wyoming to California. The House bill also includes money for clean-coal technology, hydrogen-fueled vehicles, and wind, solar, geothermal, and hydroelectric power.

In a controversial move, the House bill also reintroduces a provision that protects oil companies from lawsuits on the gasoline additive called MTBE, a provision that was a dealbreaker for the Senate in the 108th Congress. The provision is strongly backed by House majority leader Tom DeLay, whose Texas district includes MTBE production, as well as House energy chairman Barton.

In February, a coalition of state and local officials wrote an open letter urging Congress to keep MTBE out of the bill. States and localities face billions in cleanup costs if producers are shielded from liability suits.

But even with showstoppers like MTBE in the mix, energy activists say they expect a bill to pass this year. On the Senate side, Democrats have been closely involved in drafting an energy bill, in sharp contrast to previous years. "The process is noticeably different from what it was in the last Congress, in which Republicans pursued a very exclusionary process" that limited Democratic support, says Bill Wicker, a spokesman for Democrats on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

In another bellwether move, the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee approved a renewable-fuels bill on March 16 that GOP leaders say will be wrapped into the Senate version of the energy bill. Strongly backed by senators from farm states, who promote corn-based ethanol, the bill requires refiners to use 6 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2012. It also calls for a phaseout of MTBE and provides funds to help with cleanup.

"We are going to go toward biomass-generated ethanol and other flexible fuels once there is a catastrophe," says Gaffney. "But you pay a very high price for delay."



It is about time that the congress got off their collective asses and do something constructive. It has been talked and worried about for years.
0 Replies
 
Bella Dea
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Apr, 2005 05:43 pm
$2.39/ gal here. This sucks.
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Apr, 2005 06:03 pm
Bella Dea
By this summer you may be longing for the days when it was only $2.39/ gal.

There has been a need for conservation and alternate sources of energy for years. Unfortuneatly it takes a crisis for our legislators to get the lead out of their A$$es. Now we have to hope they do not do what they usually do. Screw it up.
0 Replies
 
candidone1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Apr, 2005 02:36 pm
...make war with a country, and your friends in the military industry get rich. Make war with an oil rich country and all your oilmen friends get rich.
+$100/bbl prices don't haunt everyone.
0 Replies
 
Bella Dea
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Apr, 2005 02:37 pm
au1929 wrote:
Bella Dea
By this summer you may be longing for the days when it was only $2.39/ gal.

There has been a need for conservation and alternate sources of energy for years. Unfortuneatly it takes a crisis for our legislators to get the lead out of their A$$es. Now we have to hope they do not do what they usually do. Screw it up.


God I hope not. If that's the case...I am screwed. I have a bit of a drive to work. I might need a second job to pay for the gas to get to the first.
0 Replies
 
watchmakers guidedog
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Apr, 2005 01:34 am
You say the words "oil prices" and people think of petrol stations with people refilling their cars.

However, that same oil drives (no pun intended) the majority of the american economy. Goods are shipped by truck, boat or by train. All of these become more expensive with a rising oil price. Changes like this could unravel the social fabric in unexpected ways.
0 Replies
 
Bella Dea
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Apr, 2005 06:27 am
watchmakers guidedog wrote:
You say the words "oil prices" and people think of petrol stations with people refilling their cars.



Of course we do. It's how it first hits us and how we are first affected.
0 Replies
 
candidone1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Apr, 2005 10:09 am
In Calgary, we've already seen cab prices increase, restaurants talking of increasing menu prices as a result of higher costs incurred by rising transportation costs to the restaurant/rising costs incurred by grocery supplier, long haul truckers either finding new work or billing more to accomodate rising fuel costs, city budgets being exceeded (for running police and ambulance services) hinting of higher taxes to make up for the shortfall....

So, no, I don't think simply of Joe Citizen filling up their Durango at the Shell station....
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Apr, 2005 10:26 am
Eventually higher costs for a barrel of oil will adversly effect the price of every we buy. Nothing will be spared.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Apr, 2005 10:27 am
Quote:
Eventually higher costs for a barrel of oil will adversly effect the price of every we buy. Nothing will be spared.


Agreed.

We haven't even begun to discuss the impact on the Plastics and Synthetics industry, which is a part of every single thing that we take for granted in our modern society.

Rising oil prices -> rising plastic prices -> rising packaging costs (just to name one) = Everything going up in price.

Not good.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Apr, 2005 10:45 am
I would note that the rise in the price of a barrel of oil in part is the devalued American dollar. Europe because of the strength of the Euro against our weak dollar has not been impacted as we in the states have.
With the devalued dollar and the high cost of energy, Inflation no doubt is about ready to bite us in the backside.
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Apr, 2005 03:54 pm
Consider what the effect this will have on our consumer oriented economy

Quote:
USA > Economy
from the April 07, 2005 edition

Oil prices pinch other spending

By Ron Scherer | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

NEW YORK – The price of gasoline has begun a springtime surge that experts believe will push it to a national average of $2.50 a gallon by Memorial Day. At that level, many Americans will find it costs about $65 - or more - to tank up the Sequoia or Suburban. In California, which usually has some of the highest prices in the nation, forget about expensive self-indulgences because gasoline could average close to $3 a gallon.


In the Monitor
Thursday, 04/07/05
If prices were to remain at these higher levels by the summer driving season, it would mean Americans would spend $5 billion more a month than they did last summer on gasoline. Economists estimate this will reduce economic activity as Americans have less money to buy ice cream or go to the movies. In fact, consumer polls now indicate confidence in the economy is eroding as fast as gasoline prices are rising.

"Consumers are now responding differently this year than they did last year when prices were high. They are fundamentally changing their spending," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. "I think we'll begin to see the effects on spending in the second quarter."

Last week, an analysis by the investment banking firm Goldman Sachs looked at how high gasoline prices would have to go to induce Americans to change their SUV lifestyle. The analysis said, "Super spike may be upon us." If so, it predicted the price of a barrel of oil could reach $135 by 2008. At that point, the analysis concluded that gasoline will average about $4.30 a gallon - a price high enough to "meaningfully reduce consumption" and reduce oil prices.

But this summer will not see any major changes in gasoline consumption, predicts Tancred Lidderdale, an economist with the Energy Information Administration in Washington. "The problem is there is still a continued growth in demand as we have a growing population and an increase in the number of autos driven. At the same time there is a general deterioration in the average [automobile] fuel economy."

This means many Americans will be groaning over the next several weeks as prices tick up. According to GasPriceWatch.com, the national average for regular unleaded gasoline is $2.30 a gallon, up 40 to 50 cents a gallon compared with a year ago. In California, gas prices are now averaging about $2.50 a gallon, compared with $2.10 last April. "We won't see the peak until the Memorial Day weekend," predicts Brad Proctor, founder of the Centerville, Ohio, organization.

Energy experts say the price should continue to rise at the pump because it is still not reflecting the higher prices of a barrel of crude oil. It normally takes several weeks before the higher price of crude - currently about $55.50 a barrel - is reflected in the retail price for gasoline, says Mr. Lidderdale.

At the same time, refiners are beginning to shift over to producing the summer blend of gasoline. This change creates its own set of problems, says Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. For example, in New England, the additive MBTE has been replaced with ethanol for pollution reasons. "You get 2.4 percent worse gas mileage with ethanol," says Mr. Routt, who observes that gasoline prices almost always mini-spike around April 15 when the gasoline stations shift over.

To meet demand, oil companies import gasoline from overseas. This has already started, says Routt, pointing to recent shipments of blending components from Taiwan and India. "Part of the silliness of the story is that our imports must continue higher as our demand continues higher," he says. No new refineries have been built in the US since 1976.

To free up the refinery bottleneck, Mr. Proctor is proposing to end the production of the middle grade of fuel. "It's equal to building one or two new refineries now," he says. "It would release the strain on production."
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