Where is the US economy headed?

Wow! The Dow ended down 400 points, with a 100 point rebound in the last few minutes. A 3.7% loss for the day. Financial stocks worldwide got slammed badly as fears rose about the EU situation. There was also concern in the U.S. after jobs, home sales and manufacturing turned in disappointing news.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

It is worth remembering that the eminent Keynes' breakthrough career experience was as a second tier advisor to Lloyd George during the 1918-1919 Paris negotiations leading to the ill-conceived treaty later signed at Versailles.

That is untrue. And what's more, I pointed out to you years ago that it was untrue. You accepted the rebuttal, even thanked me for the insight. And yet you keep repeating this slanderous talking point all the same. You're one to talk about Parados's relationship with the facts!

To repeat what I said back then: Keynes was indeed an advisor to Lloyd George at Versailles. His advice was that the treaty was catastrophic, would wreak havoc with the economies of Europe in general and Germany in particular, and would, in the long run, lead to a second world war. When Lloyed George refused to listen, Keynes resigned from the advisory board in protest and wrote his book The Economic Consequences of the Peace. In this book, published 1919, he predicted pretty darn exactly that what did happen in the Germany of the 20s and 30s, would happen.

Do you see any way Keynes could have acted more intelligently and honorably than he did? To say that his advice lead to the ill-conceived treaty of Versailles is the exact opposite of the truth. Shame on you for continuously repeating this lie even though you know better!

1 Reply

@Thomas,

What I wrote isn't untrue at all. You are mistakenly relating this to a six year old exchange on another topic.

Keynes was indeed a second tier advisor to Lloyd George at the Paris negotiations in 1918 & 19 - Just as I wrote.

The evidence suggests he emerged from the process with a cynical view of human constructs - Just as I wrote.

You've been hanging around with Cyclo to much.

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@georgeob1,

Quote:

You've been hanging around with Cyclo to much.

No reason to act like such an ass, George. Nobody is impressed by it.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Nobody is impressed by it.

Cycloptichorn

Still speaking for everyone eh?

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@georgeob1,

In this case, I feel perfectly comfortable doing so - just as in some cases, you feel perfectly comfortable doing so in turn.

You have a real tendency to, when attacked, start attacking others instead of actually defending your point. Thomas was simply pointing out that the facts you listed - which he didn't say you were wrong about - were not, in fact, a blemish on Keynes' reputation or credentials in the slightest. Your answer back to him, while technically true, misses the spirit of his comment completely.

As an example: if you work for a business which is failing, and accurately realize that it's failing because of factors X Y and Z, quit that business, and go on to write extensively on the subject of how these and other things cause businesses to fail, it's fallacious to say that your only experience is 'employee of a failed business.' It's technically true but substantively false.

And let's be honest: you demean Keynes because his theories say that much of what you consider to be sound economic advice is perfectly incorrect.

Cycloptichorn

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

What I wrote isn't untrue at all. You are mistakenly relating this to a six year old exchange on another topic.

On this particular point, the exchange was identical. Go read it up.

georgeob1 wrote:

Keynes was indeed a second tier advisor to Lloyd George at the Paris negotiations in 1918 & 19 - Just as I wrote.

What's untrue is your insinuation that his advice contributed to the signing of this treaty rather than inhibiting it. The truth is that Keynes fought the treaty of Versailles with tooth and nails.

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@High Seas,

Gold except for some electronic uses and jewelry is a worthless metal in any real life terms but for the idea is that it have some magical worth beyond that.

Such emotional and irrational valuation are going to and have gone up and down wildly base only on the emotions at any given moment.

Gold pricing at it current level is very unstable to say the least no matter how you wish to compare it pricing to oil or anything else You can not power a power plant with gold bars.

It too bad the US is not selling a few hundreds tons of it gold reserves into this market in a very quiet manner as any open selling would drop the gold prices like a rock off a cliff.

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@BillRM,

Well, there are quite a few 'electronic' uses for which gold really is well suited. And if more of it existed, it would be much more widely used. It does have inherent value.

Cycloptichorn

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@Thomas,

Thomas wrote:

What's untrue is your insinuation that his advice contributed to the signing of this treaty rather than inhibiting it. The truth is that Keynes fought the treaty of Versailles with tooth and nails.

I made no such insinuation. On the contrary, I related the experience to his subsequent cynicism. That, indeed was the point. Read what I wrote. You are projecting.

Parenthetically, Keynes didn't oppose everything in the treaty negotiations and even supported some of Lloyd George & Clemenceau's rather harmful proposals.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Wow! The Dow ended down 400 points, with a 100 point rebound in the last few minutes. A 3.7% loss for the day. Financial stocks worldwide got slammed badly as fears rose about the EU situation. There was also concern in the U.S. after jobs, home sales and manufacturing turned in disappointing news.

Stimulate! We need more government spending!

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@BillRM,

Quote:

Gold except for some electronic uses and jewelry is a worthless metal in any real life terms but for the idea is that it have some magical worth beyond that.

It's magical alright Bill. Why do you think there are Golden Wonder crisps. The Golden Arches of McDonald.s. The golden handshake. Golden showers. (a neat juxtaposition eh?). Goldenballs. (Sir James Goldsmith's nickname.) Golden Gate Bridge. "Golden hair, golden smile/Walking along the Golden Mile." (That's in Blackpool.) Goldfinger. Goldilocks. Bake until golden. Golden wedding. (phew!!!!). Goldie Hawn. The Golden Ball. (that's a pub--there's a few actually) The Golden Fleece. The Golden Shot.

Try running a few Kruggerands through your fingers.

Have you not got any Bill?

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@spendius,

Golden Oldies.

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@spendius,

Quote:

Try running a few Kruggerands through your fingers.

Have you not got any Bill?

At one time I had eight or so Mexican coins with 1 and 1/5 or so ounces of gold apiece if memory serve me correctly that I purchase at 400 dollars an ounce and sold them at 800 dollars an ounce.

The coins was good looking with great art work and at the time if was a fun idea to have gold coins.

Then I got married and divorce in a short time period so I sold them for double what I purchase them for to pay the divorce lawyer.

Oh shortly after I sold them at 800 dollars an ounce the price dropped below the price I purchase them for.

1 Reply

@BillRM,

Very funny Bill. Especially the bit about getting married.

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

Thomas wrote:

What's untrue is your insinuation that his advice contributed to the signing of this treaty rather than inhibiting it. The truth is that Keynes fought the treaty of Versailles with tooth and nails.

I made no such insinuation. On the contrary, I related the experience to his subsequent cynicism. That, indeed was the point. Read what I wrote. You are projecting.

What you wrote was: "It is worth remembering that the eminent Keynes' breakthrough career experience was as a second tier advisor to Lloyd George during the 1918-1919 Paris negotiations leading to the ill-conceived treaty later signed at Versailles. That alone was likely enough to later ensure a somewhat cynical estimate of any enduring realities on even a human time scale."

I don't think it's projecting to discover an insinuation here that Keynes contributed to the treaty of Versailles such as it was. But I'll take your word that you didn't mean to make such an insinuation, and am ready to drop the matter.

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I bet it's good fun being stuck on a barstool in between George and Thomas.

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Ah, it is just after the middle of the month, meaning it is once again time to check out the exciting news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: the CPI-W for July. And now we are playing for keeps, as the CPI-W average for July, August and September is used to determine how much of an increase there will be in Social Security benefits for 2012. In the 3rd Qtr of 2008, the index was 215.5 but was below that in 2009 and 2010. Hence, no increase in SSAE for 2 years.
The July, 2011, index came in at 222.7 vs 216.3 in 2008. That is a 3% increase. Back in 2008, the index continued to slump in August and September. Prices now are volatile to say the least.
My guess (I forget what I said last month) is that SS benefits could be pegged at +3.20 for next year.
Aren't you sorry you wasted time reading this?

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@spendius,

Quote:

Very funny Bill. Especially the bit about getting married.

That marriage was not funny to me as in less then a year I went from having a very fat bank account to the edge of needing to declare bankruptcy.

1 Reply

@BillRM,

A frontier tale if ever I heard one.

0 Replies

Where is the US economy headed?

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