114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Aug, 2007 07:27 pm
you might want to read what bloomberg news is reporting - see link .
batten down the hatches !
hbg

Quote:
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- On Wall Street, Bear Stearns Cos., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., are as good as junk.

Bonds of U.S. investment banks lost about $1.5 billion of their face value this month as the risk of owning the securities increased the most since at least October 2004, according to Merrill indexes. Prices of credit-default swaps based on the debt imply that their credit ratings are below investment grade, data compiled by Moody's Investors Service show.

The highest level of defaults in 10 years on subprime mortgages and a $33 billion pileup of unsold bonds and loans for funding acquisitions are driving investors away from debt of the New York-based securities firms. Concerns about credit quality may get worse because banks promised to provide $300 billion in debt for leveraged buyouts announced this year.



read full report : BLOOMBERG NEWS
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Aug, 2007 07:27 pm
From my rough calculations, it'll take about $151 every week for 40 years earning five percent interest to reach one million.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Aug, 2007 07:30 pm
better hold on to your money , c.i. !
bloomberg news report is pretty gloomy - see my earlier posting .
hbg

Quote:
On Wall Street, Bear Stearns Cos., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., are as good as junk.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Aug, 2007 07:49 pm
The July 21st week lost over $500 billion in market value. I'm very cautious right now; I'm holding onto federal money market funds that's guaranteed. I sold between 35 percent to 40 percent of our year to date gains before the big drop, because I knew there was nothing to sustain 14000 on the DOW. Not with what I've been reporting on these threads about the sub-prime loans, highest consumer debt we've ever seen, and our feds spending money like there's no tomorrow. The US dollar continues to lose value against all currencies except the yen and yuan, but that's almost expected in the market place. Our trade imbalance gets a break for now, but I'm now sure how long those countries holding our paper will stand by watching as their holdings lose value. I see the future as pretty bleak. I predict that the stock market will reflect this condition for the next few months, only because people have short memories, but people will take advantage of low prices to buy back into the market. It's almost a predictable cycle.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Aug, 2007 08:04 pm
$10 / week for 50 years @ 10% will get you $518k
$15 / week for 50 years @ 10% will get you $780k
$20 / week for 50 years @ 10% will get you $1.04 million

NOW, adjusting for inflation to have a million of today's dollars in 2057 you would need to save.....

$146.50 / week for 50 years @ 10% return

OR

$582 / month for 50 years @ 10% return

How many of you non minimum wage earners are doing that?

It is unlikely that a person on minimum wage for their entire working career will ever be able to save any substantial amount of money.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Aug, 2007 08:15 pm
And to put that one million into perspective, in fifty years, anyone retiring with one million will be one of the poor ones. Probably be worth about $300,000 in today's dollars.
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Miller
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 07:52 am
cicerone imposter wrote:
And to put that one million into perspective, in fifty years, anyone retiring with one million will be one of the poor ones. Probably be worth about $300,000 in today's dollars.

And wha about the millions of Americans whi don't have a pot to pee into?
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 07:56 am
Miller: And wha about the millions of Americans whi don't have a pot to pee into?


I should live so long. At the current rate, the US will have more Americans on the dole.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 10:39 am
Poverty is a choice for many people. Example, what percentage of the poverty level people smoke? If it is 2 packs a day, what is the cost now, $4.00 ?, so $8.00 x 30 days is $240 per month. If it is cheap cigarettes and only a pack a day, then the cost decreases, but still is significantly more than the $20 per month that generates over 300 grand by retirement.

Cigarette smoking is only one blatant and obvious example of wasteful spending and lifestyle choice, and I could cite many more, so I think it should be obvious that how we spend our money is a choice. I wholeheartedly agree with imposter that it isn't so much determined by what we make, but how we spend. When people spend, they are making a statement of what is most important to them. If a quick puff on a cigarette is more important than future security or a few bucks in the bank for an unexpected car breakdown or appliance repair, or medical insurance, that is what freedom is about, so when their car breaks down, or their appliance gives out, or they need to go to the doctor for a strep test but don't have the money, should they expect the rest of us to foot their bill?
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 10:41 am
okie wrote:
Poverty is a choice for many people. Example, what percentage of the poverty level people smoke? If it is 2 packs a day, what is the cost now, $4.00 ?, so $8.00 x 30 days is $240 per month. If it is cheap cigarettes and only a pack a day, then the cost decreases, but still is significantly more than the $20 per month that generates over 300 grand by retirement.

Cigarette smoking is only one blatant and obvious example of wasteful spending and lifestyle choice, and I could cite many more, so I think it should be obvious that how we spend our money is a choice. I wholeheartedly agree with imposter that it isn't so much determined by what we make, but how we spend. When people spend, they are making a statement of what is most important to them. If a quick puff on a cigarette is more important than future security or a few bucks in the bank for an unexpected car breakdown or appliance repair, or medical insurance, that is what freedom is about, so when their car breaks down, or their appliance gives out, or they need to go to the doctor for a strep test but don't have the money, should they expect the rest of us to foot their bill?


You don't understand what poverty means.

Cycloptichorn
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 10:52 am
I started without a dime, cyclops, and I can remember eating bread and gravy for meals because that is all we had. Many of my shirts were made from flour sacks.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 10:55 am
okie wrote:
I started without a dime, cyclops, and I can remember eating bread and gravy for meals because that is all we had. Many of my shirts were made from flour sacks.


Then, you have forgotten those days, for to say that folks who smoke cigarettes wouldn't be poor if they just gave up those things, is ridiculous.

I will also say that 2 packs a day is a serious drug addiction; even so, heavy smokers like that buy by the carton or case, so they don't pay anywhere near what you quoted.

Cycloptichorn
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:17 am
Cycloptichorn wrote:
okie wrote:
I started without a dime, cyclops, and I can remember eating bread and gravy for meals because that is all we had. Many of my shirts were made from flour sacks.


Then, you have forgotten those days, for to say that folks who smoke cigarettes wouldn't be poor if they just gave up those things, is ridiculous.

It is not ridiculous, not at all. They would not be as poor, cyclops, do the math, especially if they spent it on something useful. Also, if the poor quit buying lottery tickets, they would not be as poor. How many more examples do you need? Are you clueless or what? I have been poor, so I know what I am talking about. Have you ever been poor?

Quote:
I will also say that 2 packs a day is a serious drug addiction; even so, heavy smokers like that buy by the carton or case, so they don't pay anywhere near what you quoted.

Cycloptichorn

Fine, they still spend alot, plus they are increasing their health care bills down the road with more colds, and eventually cancer. Are you trying to tell me they can't help it at all?
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:21 am
okie wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
okie wrote:
I started without a dime, cyclops, and I can remember eating bread and gravy for meals because that is all we had. Many of my shirts were made from flour sacks.


Then, you have forgotten those days, for to say that folks who smoke cigarettes wouldn't be poor if they just gave up those things, is ridiculous.

It is not ridiculous, not at all. They would not be as poor, cyclops, do the math, especially if they spent it on something useful. Also, if the poor quit buying lottery tickets, they would not be as poor. How many more examples do you need. Are you clueless or what. I have been poor, so I know what I am talking about. Have you ever been poor?

Quote:
I will also say that 2 packs a day is a serious drug addiction; even so, heavy smokers like that buy by the carton or case, so they don't pay anywhere near what you quoted.

Cycloptichorn

Fine, they still spend alot, plus they are increasing their health care bills down the road with more colds, and eventually cancer. Are you trying to tell me they can't help it at all?


Oh, it's not that.

Let's say we have a family of four on an income of 38k per year. That's poor. If they spend 1750 per year on luxury items, that they then give up and put in to savings - yes, they would have more money then if they didn't buy any luxury items. but they still would be poor. These people aren't poor b/c they buy a lottery ticket every week, they are poor b/c they don't have the money to afford basic **** in our society.

I understand your position - that people who don't have money shouldn't waste what they have. That's fine. But these people would in many cases never, ever be able to pull themselves up out of poverty. All that it takes is one significant problem in their life - a car wreck, a sick child, loss of a job - and they are f*cked and their meager savings vanish. How many times do I have to explain to you, that Security is the measurement of wealth?

Cycloptichorn
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:27 am
Your answer fits your mindset alright. Go ahead and preach your hopelessness. You are a Democrat, thats for sure, or you vote for Democrats most of the time, one or the other, as that is their mindset as well. They tell people it is hopeless, that they are incapable of anything, and there is nothing they can do to help themselves. Pathetic, cyclops. I happen to believe people can help themselves tremendously and the opportunities are endless and abounding everywhere around them. Much of it lies within themselves. It is about choices, and that is why millions are beating the door down to get here. You need to read your own post again and realize how pathetic it is.

Precisely why I support Republicans or people that believe in this country, and that believe in the people, that we are not helpless, but opportunity abounds.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:41 am
okie wrote:
Your answer fits your mindset alright. Go ahead and preach your hopelessness. You are a Democrat, thats for sure, or you vote for Democrats most of the time, one or the other, as that is their mindset as well. They tell people it is hopeless, that they are incapable of anything, and there is nothing they can do to help themselves. Pathetic, cyclops. I happen to believe people can help themselves tremendously and the opportunities are endless and abounding everywhere around them. Much of it lies within themselves. It is about choices, and that is why millions are beating the door down to get here. You need to read your own post again and realize how pathetic it is.

Precisely why I support Republicans or people that believe in this country, and that believe in the people, that we are not helpless, but opportunity abounds.


Bull ****, Okie. You aren't going to get away with a retreat to empty phrases like that.

I never said that the situation is 'hopeless.' There are plenty who have pulled themselves out of poverty, made a better life, for their kids if not for themselves. But they aren't poor b/c they buy a luxury item every now and then, they aren't going to not be poor b/c they forgo such items.

You originally and affirmatively stated:

Quote:
Poverty is a choice for many people. Example, what percentage of the poverty level people smoke? If it is 2 packs a day, what is the cost now, $4.00 ?, so $8.00 x 30 days is $240 per month. If it is cheap cigarettes and only a pack a day, then the cost decreases, but still is significantly more than the $20 per month that generates over 300 grand by retirement.


A few things:

First, poverty is not a choice for many people. You have not shown how this is true, and my point is that buying a small amount of luxury items doesn't change this.

Second, what you are basically describing is a life for people who are poor, where they are blamed if they decide to spend any of their money on enjoying their life, instead of saving it all for retirement 50 years in the future. And, given inflation, there's no guarantee that that money will be enough to retire on, anyways. You're basically asking people to lead a life with no enjoyment - not any that anyone else has, that costs any money at all - so that in the end of their life they may not be so poor. Not a reasonable position.

Cycloptichorn
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Miller
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:47 am
Many, many of our Asian-Americans come to the US dirt poor. They all get jobs, no matter the nature of the job and they also often pool their resources. It's common for newly arrived Asians to live 4-6 in a one bedroom apartment and that, of course saves on rent. Many get jobs in restaurants, and as a result get their meals there, too. This saves the Asian-Americans rent and food money and thus provides them with cash for investments.

In my town, many, many condos are being bought by newly arrived Asian-Americans . They arise from dirt-poor poverty, by hard work, conservation, saving and wise investment ( both educational investment as well as financial investment).

If these Asian-American immigrants can do this, why can't so many other poor Americans, who are constantly looking for welfare payments?
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:48 am
Miller wrote:
Many, many of our Asian-Americans come to the US dirt poor. They all get jobs, no matter the nature of the job and they also often pool their resources. It's common for newly arrived Asians to live 4-6 in a one bedroom apartment and yhat, of course saves on rent. Many get jobs in restaurants, and as a result get their meals there, too. This saves the Asian-Americans rent and food money and thus provides them with cash for investments.

In my town, many, many condos are being bought by newly arrived Asian-Americans . They arise from dirt-poor poverty, by hard work, conservation, saving and wise investment ( both educational investment as well as financial investment).

If these Asian-American immigrants can do this, why can't so many other poor Americans, who are constantly looking for welfare payments?


It isn't that I don't believe you, but this smacks of Anecdotal evidence - I would like to see some sort of data on this before I decide that the other poor Americans are just a bunch of lazy bums.

Cycloptichorn
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Miller
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:49 am
Dig it up yourself, if that's your interest.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Aug, 2007 11:50 am
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Let's say we have a family of four on an income of 38k per year. That's poor. If they spend 1750 per year on luxury items, that they then give up and put in to savings - yes, they would have more money then if they didn't buy any luxury items. but they still would be poor. These people aren't poor b/c they buy a lottery ticket every week, they are poor b/c they don't have the money to afford basic **** in our society.
Cycloptichorn



Using this family of 4 let's see how $38,000 would likely break down. And let's assume they drive a 6 year old car that is paid off.

Salary - $38,000
Tithing - $3,800
Fed Taxes - $3,000 after child credits
State - $1,000
SS Tases - $2,300
Rent - $8,400 for a 2 bedroom apartment (kids share a room)
Utilities - $2,400 a modest $200/month
Food - $4,800 at $400/month
Auto Insurance - $1,200
Gas - $1,650 at 12,000 miles per year @ 20 mpg @ 2.75/gal
Health Insurance -

These few things eat up $28,550 leaving a whopping $9,450. Of this $9,450 health insurance would eat up another $6,000 / year, leaving a little over $66 / week for everything else.


That seems pretty poor to me.
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