114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
H2O MAN
 
  -3  
Reply Mon 11 Jul, 2011 05:32 pm


Obama is normally kind of a dick, but he's being a real douchebag lately...
I guess he is beginning to realize that he's a clueless hack that has no business being president.
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  2  
Reply Mon 11 Jul, 2011 05:53 pm
Quote:
In a 75-minute meeting Sunday night, President Obama once again demanded that more than $1 trillion in tax increases be part of any deficit reduction package attached to a vote on the debt ceiling. In the session, Obama rejected a Republican proposal to seek $2.5 trillion in spending cuts and reforms, and insisted on higher taxes on businesses and wealthy individuals


So, Obama is insisting on tax hikes.
However, that doesnt jibe with what he said in August of 2009..

Quote:
In August 2009, on a visit to Elkhart, Indiana to tout his stimulus plan, Obama sat down for an interview with NBC’s Chuck Todd, and was conveyed a simple request from Elkhart resident Scott Ferguson: “Explain how raising taxes on anyone during a deep recession is going to help with the economy.”

Obama agreed with Ferguson’s premise – raising taxes in a recession is a bad idea. “First of all, he’s right. Normally, you don’t raise taxes in a recession, which is why we haven’t and why we’ve instead cut taxes. So I guess what I’d say to Scott is – his economics are right. You don’t raise taxes in a recession. We haven’t raised taxes in a recession.”

Todd reminded Obama that he had promised to raise taxes on “some of the wealthiest” Americans.
Obama responded by reiterating his opposition to tax hikes during a recession and making an argument about timing. “We have not proposed a tax hike for the wealthy that would take effect in the middle of a recession. Even the proposals that have come out of Congress – which by the way were different from the proposals I put forward – still wouldn’t kick in until after the recession was over. So he’s absolutely right, the last thing you want to do is raise taxes in the middle of a recession because that would just suck up – take more demand out of the economy and put business further in a hole


http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-vs-obama_576524.html

So, do we raise taxes in a recession, or dont we.
It seems Obama cant make up his mind, or cant remember what he said.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 11 Jul, 2011 05:56 pm
@mysteryman,
Quote:

So, do we raise taxes in a recession, or dont we.
It seems Obama cant make up his mind, or cant remember what he said.


The tax hikes he's calling for don't start immediately - unlike many of the cuts he's agreed to.

However, Obama could remind you - if he were inclined to - that we are no longer in a recession, by the definition the economists use.

Sorry to burst yet another one of yer 'gotcha' moments, mm....

Cycloptichorn
mysteryman
 
  2  
Reply Mon 11 Jul, 2011 05:59 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
It wasnt meant as a "gotcha" moment, so you didnt bust any moment.

So, if the admin calls the current malaise a recession, you will also say that they are wrong and dont know what they are talking about, right.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 11 Jul, 2011 06:13 pm
@mysteryman,
mysteryman wrote:

It wasnt meant as a "gotcha" moment, so you didnt bust any moment.

So, if the admin calls the current malaise a recession, you will also say that they are wrong and dont know what they are talking about, right.


Well, under the strict economic definition, he'd be right. But, we're still feeling a lot of pain, so under a more common definition, they'd be wrong. All depends on how you want to define it.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 11 Jul, 2011 06:26 pm
@mysteryman,
mm, You go back to 2009 to quote Obama and believe what was his first year in office in a Great Recession, and you believe those same conditions exist today? Are you out of your freaking mind?

It's obvious you neither understand economics or politics.

That's not even a "gotcha" issue; it's asinine.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 08:51 am
@Cycloptichorn,
True, we are no longer in a recession in terms of the strict economic definition - two consecutive quarters of economnic contraction. However, we aren't in much of a recovery either. Unemploument is slowly oscillating around 9% or so (increasing lately); our balance of payments (export/import effect) remains very unfavorable, despite unprecedented easy money policies that have significantly depreciated our currency; private sector investment and job creation are low, reflecting uncertainty about future government restrictions on economic activity; and we are saddled with a government that apparently believes ity alone knows what is good for us - a threat to both our freedom and future economic success.

Cyclo rationalizes economically harmful government restrictions on the development of new energy infrastructure (petroleum production, pipelines, etc., by saying money isn't everything - and then goes on to advocate government financed investment in other vaguely defined "infrastructure" projects - all without saying where the energy to operate them will come from.

The 20th century provided us with many conclusive proofs that top-down central planning and bureaucratically managed economies yield only uniform poverty and the loss of freedom. Unfortunately the world is still populated with credulous, unthinking folks like him who neither know history nor understand its lessons.

Today's news about the worsening government debt crisis in Europe and its knock-on effects on economic activity throughout the region is a reminder of the folly of the Krugman, pseudo Keynsian notions that deficits and government debt don't mattter. The truth is it isn't so much the debt itself that crushes creative economic activity as it is the bureaucratic structures, government behavior and public dependence and passivity that is inexorably associated with contemporary high spending governments. Our misguided leaders don't appear to understand that.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 09:18 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:

Cyclo rationalizes economically harmful government restrictions on the development of new energy infrastructure (petroleum production, pipelines, etc., by saying money isn't everything - and then goes on to advocate government financed investment in other vaguely defined "infrastructure" projects - all without saying where the energy to operate them will come from.


I did advocate that? Where?

I didn't say where the energy to operate any new projects would come from, because it doesn't currently need to be said. We have no shortage of available electricity at this time in America.

The rest of your post is muttering about Europe and whatnot, not very interesting. I guess it's worth pointing out that Europe is experiencing huge problems not because of their socialist government, but (mostly) because of bad bets made by their banks in the real estate markets... just like here in America.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 09:53 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

I didn't say where the energy to operate any new projects would come from, because it doesn't currently need to be said. We have no shortage of available electricity at this time in America.
Wrong !! Before the economic downturn we had an undercapitalized power generating establishment with ageing nuclear and coal plants and very little reserve capacity; also an electrical transmission grid that was dangerously short of redundancy and subject to numerous single point wide area failures. Reduced power demand associated with the ongoing economic contraction has temporarily mitigated those problems, but no fix is yet in sight. Meanwhile the Obama EPA is working hard to shut down the 52% of our electrical power generated by coal and his environmentalist allies are working hard to prevent the construction of new powerplants and direct ever more subsidies and mandated shares to "renewables" and other ethanol - like fisascoes. Similarly we see an economy impacted by soaring gas prices while our government works extra hours to prevent further domestic production - something you rationalized, saying money isn't everything.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

The rest of your post is muttering about Europe and whatnot, not very interesting. I guess it's worth pointing out that Europe is experiencing huge problems not because of their socialist government, but (mostly) because of bad bets made by their banks in the real estate markets... just like here in America.

You are dead wrong on this point too. Iceland and Ireland had banking crises of the type you described, but both are well on the way to recovery with large current surpluses and public acceptance of the belt-tightening required. They are no longer the problem. The real financial problem in Europe has to do with the socialist public welfare policies of Greece, Portugual, Spain, and Italy - and to a lesser degree the UK and France in which free spending and over regulating bureaucratic states and a passive public, accustomed to being treated like sheep, csan no longer afford or compete with the over regulated labor markets and expensive public welfare systems to which they have become accustomed. They can't think their way out of their problem, and their publics are unwilling to accept what obviously must be done -- a sure formula for disaster.
Cycloptichorn
 
  0  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 10:00 am
@georgeob1,
Increasing domestic oil production wouldn't meaningfully drop the price of gasoline here, anytime soon, and you know it. So why even say such a thing? And I think it's been pretty conclusively shown that the effects upon the environment are bad at the least, and horrible at the worst. If you don't agree with that, I dare ya to come to Louisiana and go swimming with me.

So yeah, there are other concerns besides just money and profits. Sorry if that offends you, that some of us don't want the country to be endlessly fucked up.

Re: Solar, I guess you haven't noticed that it's dropping in price like a stone. By 2013, solar panels are projected to cost half of what they did in 2009; and that's just going to keep falling as production ramps up. Within a decade, commercial solar installations will likely be cheaper than traditional energy sources, without subsidy. You won't be able to keep making your case for dirty, old-school energy generation for much longer, so enjoy it while you can.

Cycloptichorn



H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 10:02 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Increasing domestic oil production wouldn't meaningfully drop
the price of gasoline here, anytime soon, and you know it.



That's pure BS and you know it is.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 10:23 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Increasing domestic oil production wouldn't meaningfully drop the price of gasoline here, anytime soon, and you know it.
What the hell does that statement mean ? I suppose "soon" is the operative word here. However, if we had better exploited our domestic sources of petroleum ten, five, or even two years ago, we would be in much better shape now, with reduced dependency on OPEC production decisions & market price control and a much more favorable balance of trade. Significant economic benefits follow.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Re: Solar, I guess you haven't noticed that it's dropping in price like a stone. By 2013, solar panels are projected to cost half of what they did in 2009; and that's just going to keep falling as production ramps up. Within a decade, commercial solar installations will likely be cheaper than traditional energy sources, without subsidy. You won't be able to keep making your case for dirty, old-school energy generation for much longer, so enjoy it while you can.
"Falling like a stone" Laughing
large scale solar power generation is very far from commercial viability even with the modest reductions in panel costs you describe. The energy density (land area required per gigawat) is still very low; the capacity factor still dependent on time of day and cloud cover, and the cost per Mw hr delivered still much more than double conventional sources. Power storage & recovery systems stll have at best only 60% efficiencies, with no significant improvements in sight. I think you are way over your head technically here, but would be most interested to see your sources for the allegation that solar power will be cheaper than that derived from nuclear, coal, or gas by 2021. That is... assuming you have any sources to offer. Laughing
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 10:38 am
@georgeob1,
I agree with both comments about US oil production and the viability of solar panels ability to provide enough energy for the future. We still produce about half our energy from coal.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 10:58 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:

large scale solar power generation is very far from commercial viability even with the modest reductions in panel costs you describe.


Dropping in price by half in just a few years isn't 'modest.' Those are huge reductions in price. If they dropped by half again in just another 8 years after that, it would be dead cheap to put solar on ANYTHING.

Quote:
The energy density (land area required per gigawat) is still very low; the capacity factor still dependent on time of day and cloud cover, and the cost per Mw hr delivered still much more than double conventional sources.


I don't know that this is true, given the price drops. I'd have to look at more recent data. Perhaps you have some?

The amount of land required isn't really relevant, as we have gigantic amounts of land which are currently doing absolutely nothing; and that's not counting Roofs, which would really be the best place to put panels in urban areas. Currently these roofs generate little to no income; but soon, they will become a Commodity, usable space, not wasted space.

As to the sources, here's a good start for ya:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/20/solar-panel-price-drop

Quote:
The average one-off installation cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels has already dropped from more than $2 (£1.23) per unit of generating capacity in 2009 to about $1.50 in 2011. Based on broker reports and industry analysis, the report forecasts that those rates of decline will continue, with prices falling close to the $1 mark in 2013.

At present, solar PV is economically viable in the UK for homeowners, businesses and investors only because of government subsidies given out via feed-in tariffs (Fits). But the new analysis suggests that falling PV panel prices and rising fossil fuel prices could together make large-scale solar installations cost-competitive without government support within a decade – sooner than is usually assumed.

...

To compare the relative cost of solar – usually described in terms of the dollar price of each watt of peak capacity – and other energy sources, analysts consider factors such as upfront expenditure, fuel prices, maintenance and discount rates to calculate the "levelised" cost of each unit of energy. The report predicts that, with continued support in the short term, the levellised cost of large-scale solar will be no higher than retail energy prices by 2016-19. This suggests that within 10 years companies with large electricity demands will find it cheaper to install unsubsidised solar than to buy energy via the grid in the traditional way.


Times are a'changing, George. You are correct that significant issues still hamper the generation of power, whether it's through traditional or newer means. But I think it's quite clear that the newer means are becoming ever cheaper, and the issues being tackled and overcome with rapidity. That points to a situation which is only headed one direction: greater utilization of renewable resources in the future, and less utilization of non-renewable ones.

Cycloptichorn

cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 11:47 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Those cost savings look promising, but what I'm interested in are 1) what's the cost/benefit ratio vs other energy sources, 2) how long will it take consumers to recoup that cost, and 3) what's the long-term benefit vs other energy sources?
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 01:54 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Interesting article from the Guardian. However, I don't consider that either an authoritative or relaible source for such technical information. Moreover the article refers only to residential use with direct consumption. That is a far cry from mass large scale energy production, even though the writer wrongfully failed to make the distinction. I can tell you that our large utility clients do not consider solar power to be a viable source for such generation and do not include it in any of their ten year plans - in support of which we provide them engineering consulting services.

In keeping with your earlier standard with respect to domestic petroleum production, solarr power isn't going to increase our energy availability or become a significant source of our energy supply "anytime soon".
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 01:59 pm
@georgeob1,
But Orville Wright might have said on landing that flying machines are not going to increase our ability to get around faster anytime soon.
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 02:41 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I understand politics, its politicians I dont understand.
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 03:12 pm
@mysteryman,
Politicians are people. People are greedy and want all the power and wealth they can acquire. Our economy is run by greed and the rich are more greedy than most. Therefore all politicians are only interested in getting ahead not in helping the people but in helping themselves. Whats not to understand?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Jul, 2011 03:21 pm
@mysteryman,
CLUE: Politicians don't understand politicians. How can they? They're at logger-heads not only with each other, but with the "other" party.

The only problem with the current makeup of the GOP is their voting in lock step to vote "NO."

They don't understand how harmful they are to our country and people.
0 Replies
 
 

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