@farmerman,
Technical knowledge about future effects about economics always results in stupid. There is no history that forecast about economics is accurate. There are just too many variables in the real world to know what the future holds.
Economics is not science, although many like to treat it as such.
With all the readings I do about finance, I end up using gut feeling to make decisions about our retirement investments. Most times, my decisions have resulted in the positive. When the stock market hit 14,000, I sold about 40% of my funds, and repurchased them when it hit 8,500. I'm proud of that one! In 2008, it's the only time I recommended buying gold. We all know what happened to gold prices since then.
On June 30 (last month), I exchanged $75,000 of my bond funds into stock market index funds. It has served me well since 2008. I'm not 100% positive that was the right move, but I made the decision and went with it based on a somewhat "gut feeling" it was the right timing. There's that old saw about "never try to time the market." The only wise advise is, "buy low, and sell high." Many don't.