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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 08:10 am
@H2O MAN,
This guy thinks that Americas problems are of a different sort!

Beware very foul language!

http://www.youtube.com/user/AronRa#p/f/6/VwoVY5eUBA0
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 08:17 am
@reasoning logic,


That's a lard-ass libtard ignoranus you have there... friend of yours?
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 08:18 am
@cicerone imposter,
The combined rhetoric has shifted over to "what the real drop dead sate would be if we let Aug 2 pass" A small minority of "college economists" (ie, those who have nothing at stake if theyre wrong) are saying that wed have at least a two year window before the "default" spectre would loom immediate.
Thats too much brinksmanship because if were heavily invested , the future of equities has always traded based upon rumor and bad news looming.







H2O MAN
 
  -4  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 09:03 am


THE FAILURE OF OBAMANOMICS
0 Replies
 
Below viewing threshold (view)
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 09:13 am
@H2O MAN,
No friend of mine!

What do you think about collective learning are you against it? Here is a well thought out video that shows how it works!
This man is a Christian!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqc9zX04DXs&feature=channel_video_title
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 10:45 am
@reasoning logic,
Reason, I watched about 10 min. of this and realized that this couldent be true. In our local newspaper a person wrote a letter to the reader foram proving that the world was only 8,000 years old. He went to the old testament and backtracked the amount of time that had passed and found that the world could only be 8,000 years and 1 week old. The 1 week being the time it took to create the universe. He knew this to be true because the bible told him so.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 11:18 am
@roger,
I'm not suggesting anything; you do have a "mind" don't you? You should know by experience (by now) that most financial pundits don't know what the hell they're talking about. The result is total confusion.

Economics is not science; it's an art, and most economists disagree on almost every issue. Have you not learned this simple fact?
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 11:24 am
@farmerman,
Technical knowledge about future effects about economics always results in stupid. There is no history that forecast about economics is accurate. There are just too many variables in the real world to know what the future holds.

Economics is not science, although many like to treat it as such.

With all the readings I do about finance, I end up using gut feeling to make decisions about our retirement investments. Most times, my decisions have resulted in the positive. When the stock market hit 14,000, I sold about 40% of my funds, and repurchased them when it hit 8,500. I'm proud of that one! In 2008, it's the only time I recommended buying gold. We all know what happened to gold prices since then.

On June 30 (last month), I exchanged $75,000 of my bond funds into stock market index funds. It has served me well since 2008. I'm not 100% positive that was the right move, but I made the decision and went with it based on a somewhat "gut feeling" it was the right timing. There's that old saw about "never try to time the market." The only wise advise is, "buy low, and sell high." Many don't.

reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 11:33 am
@cicerone imposter,
I can agree with much of what you say but the things that you say that I do not agree with, "could just be that I do not understand them!

Have you ever seen this video that is titled The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (part 1 of 8)?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=list_related&playnext=1&list=SP6A1FD147A45EF50D
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2011 11:36 am
@reasoning logic,
rl, I don't look for agreements from anybody else when I make financial decisions. I do enough reading about finance, and remember most of the lessons learned in college on economics.

When most lost 40% in 2008, my wife and I lost less than half of that. That's good enough for me! My wife's funds lost only 11%, and that's when I used to manage all of her funds.
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2011 04:08 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
rl, I don't look for agreements from anybody else when I make financial decisions.


Do you think that other people look for agreements from anybody else when they make financial decisions? I would hope that they would do the same as you!
Am I correct that you evaluate the situation and use the info that you have learned over the years of studying to reach an informed decision?
Or should I say that you try to use logic to make the most informed decision that you can?

I would think that some people may see if others agree and if they do not they may learn why and see if they should apply it to their decision!

How is this like an art and not more like a science or an informed decision?

When I say that I agree with you what I am implying is that I see it similar as you do!
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2011 04:29 pm
On another matter: Over the weekend, the governor of Conn (Dem) quietly signed legislation requiring employers in the service sector with 50 or more employees to provide sick pay of 40 hours a year. Conn is the 1st state to mandate this, but it also is required in San Francisco and D.C.
At my peak, I had about 25 employees who would qualify for this and I did offer that. My managers explained that, in order to get sick pay, you had to be sick (or have a sick kid or parent). I am confident that about 80% of my employees never got close to the 40 hours. They would juggle their schedules. Many employees let their sick days expire. But then there was a small minority who always managed to get sick between Christmas and New Years - missing 40 hours.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2011 04:47 pm
@realjohnboy,
rjb, The way we managed to control sick leave usage beyond 24 hours was to have a doctor write a note that the patient was indeed sick. It's a good management tool. Also, you can include a policy that if all the workers kept to a minimum the number of sick days used during the year, it translated into a bonus.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2011 05:15 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I can get with this in a small, privately held company. It probably wouldn't work in a company like Florsheim.
My employees know what our sales were last month and what our profit was. They know how much I earn. They know who is a slacker (including the guy who would always announce on a hot and humid August day when a tractor trailer pulled in at 4 pm that he had a "meeting' to go to. I found out about that later, after the guy had left).
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  2  
Reply Thu 7 Jul, 2011 03:09 pm
The Great Recession, Part II
The world could be headed for another economic disaster if we continue to listen to free-market ideologues
.By Joseph E. Stiglitz


Quote:
Just a few years ago, a powerful ideology—the belief in free and unfettered markets—brought the world to the brink of ruin. Even in its heyday, from the early 1980s until 2007, American-style deregulated capitalism brought greater material well-being only to the very richest of the richest country of the world. Indeed, over the course of this ideology's 30-year ascendance, most Americans saw their incomes decline or stagnate.

Moreover, output growth in the United States was not economically sustainable. With so much of U.S. national income going to so few, growth could continue only through consumption financed by a mounting pile of debt.
I was among those who hoped that, somehow, the financial crisis would teach Americans (and others) a lesson about the need for greater equality, stronger regulation, and a better balance between the market and government. Alas, that has not been the case. On the contrary, a resurgence of right-wing economics, driven by ideology and special interests, once again threatens the global economy—or at least the economies of Europe and North America, where these ideas continue to flourish.
In the United States, this right-wing resurgence, whose adherents evidently seek to repeal the basic laws of math and economics, is threatening to force a default on the national debt. If Congress mandates expenditures that exceed revenues, there will be a deficit, and that deficit has to be financed. Rather than balancing the benefits of each government expenditure program with the costs of raising taxes to finance those benefits, the right seeks to use a sledgehammer—not allowing the national debt to increase forces expenditures to be limited to taxes.
This leaves open the question of which expenditures get priority. If expenditures to pay interest on the national debt are not prioritized, a default is inevitable. Moreover, to cut back expenditures now, in the midst of a crisis brought on by free-market ideology, would inevitably prolong the downturn.
A decade ago, in the midst of an economic boom, the United States faced a surplus so large that it threatened to eliminate the national debt. Unaffordable tax cuts and wars, a major recession, and soaring health care costs—fueled in part by the commitment of George W. Bush's administration to giving drug companies free rein in setting prices, even with government money at stake—quickly transformed a huge surplus into record peacetime deficits.
The remedies to the U.S. deficit follow immediately from this diagnosis: Put America back to work by stimulating the economy; end the mindless wars; rein in military and drug costs; and raise taxes, at least on the very rich. But the right will have none of this, and instead is pushing for even more tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, together with expenditure cuts in investments and social protection that put the future of the U.S. economy in peril and that shred what remains of the social contract. Meanwhile, the U.S. financial sector has been lobbying hard to free itself of regulations, so that it can return to its previous, disastrously carefree, ways.
But matters are little better in Europe. As Greece and other countries face crises, the medicine du jour is simply timeworn austerity packages and privatization, which will merely leave the countries that embrace them poorer and more vulnerable. This medicine failed in East Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere, and it will fail in Europe, too. Indeed, it has already failed in Ireland, Latvia, and Greece.
There is an alternative: an economic-growth strategy supported by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Growth would restore confidence that Greece could repay its debts, causing interest rates to fall and leaving more fiscal room for further growth-enhancing investments. Growth itself increases tax revenues and reduces the need for social expenditures, such as unemployment benefits. And the confidence that this engenders leads to still further growth.
Regrettably, the financial markets and right-wing economists have gotten the problem exactly backward: They believe that austerity produces confidence, and that confidence will produce growth. But austerity undermines growth, worsening the government's fiscal position, or at least yielding less improvement than austerity's advocates promise. On both counts, confidence is undermined, and a downward spiral is set in motion.
Do we really need another costly experiment with ideas that have repeatedly failed? We shouldn't, but increasingly it appears that we will have to endure another one nonetheless. A failure of either Europe or the United States to return to robust growth would be bad for the global economy. The failure of both would be disastrous—even if the major emerging-market countries have attained self-sustaining growth. Unfortunately, unless wiser heads prevail, that is the way the world is heading

http://www.slate.com/id/2298580/
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Jul, 2011 04:12 pm
@hawkeye10,
When we have one party who's only aim is to cut taxes, the future looks very grim. We are already cutting education and health insurance funding for our children.

That's what happens in any country where you have extremists that have no brain, and only learn to parrot what their leaders tell them.

The irony of all this current politics is that the GOP has no fear about destroying our economy if they don't get their way, and if we look at the GOP meme for the last decade, they used fear to win elections. It worked in 2008 to win the House. The big $64 thousand dollar question remains; will it work in 2012?

hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Jul, 2011 04:16 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
When we have one party who's only aim is to cut taxes, the future looks very grim
The problem is more fundamental, and sometimes you act like you know but not always.....the political system no longer works, so we do not have the ability to solve this level of problem. We will crash the economy all the way, till we get to our bottom, then and only then will we gather the intestinal fortitude to fix our political system and then move forwards on fixing the rest of our problems.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Jul, 2011 04:26 pm
@hawkeye10,
Sorry, the political system is working as it should; we still elect our government reps in the same manner we have for many decades during good and bad times.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Jul, 2011 04:29 pm
The Labor Department will come out tomorrow morning (8:30 ET) with unemployment rates for June. I have B-3 at a 70% chance of staying at 9.1%; a 10% chance of it rising to 9.2% and a 20% chance of it dropping to 9%. I am going with 9%.
Construction and local governments will be a drag but retailing and manufacturing could help.
 

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