Where is the US economy headed?

The employment numbers are actually quite easy to understand if you know the lingo. We added about 268K in the private sector but lost 24K in the state and local government sector for a net gain of 244K. That is good, although the rule of thumb is we need to add 150K a month to keep up with population growth. When kids graduate in the next month or so from college or high school, we may have a problem.
U-3 is the BLS's number that most of the media uses. It tracks people who are out of work minus those who have given up looking. The unemployment rate rose today because a larger number of people interviewed said that, for one reason or another, they are back into actively trying to get a job.
U-6 is the stat many of us economists (in my case with a very small e) use.

One other set of numbers that came out today was credit card debt. It is a bit of a complicated calculation for several reasons which I sort of understand but can't begin to explain in depth, other than to say that this is what people are putting on their credit cards to function day to day.
2006 (credit card debt rose +5%)
2007 ( +8.1%)
2008 (+1.7%)
2009 (-9.6%)
2010 (-7.5%) (1st Q: -11.9%; 2nd Q: -6.6%; 3rd Q: -9.4%; 4th Q: -3.1%)
2011 (Jan: -2.3%; Feb: -5.9%; Mar: +2.9%)
Note March 2011. Credit card debt rose! Is it because consumers have greater confidence? Or is it because they have run out of cash to buy food and gas? I am inclined to think it is the latter.

rjb, We would have to know what total sales were to know whether the credit card increase were actually a transfer from cash to credit card or a net increase in actual purchases.

I have written about my situation on other threads. I own, in Charlottesville, VA, the corner of 11th and Main St. We call it Syc House. My dad and I bought it in 1980 for $80K cash. My architect and I bought a smaller piece of land 4 years ago across the street for $3.2M, which we call 10.5 after the little street there. A mortgage on it, but no big deal. A couple of mil.
We can tear down the 2 story building at Syc House and build, by right, 9 stories and, by right, 6 stories at 10.5, replacing a one story building.
The UVA hospital is one block south and the main campus is 3 blocks west but getting closer.
To the east, towards downtown, is largely vacant land for about 4 blocks.
UVA has offered me a lot of money for Syc House and 10.5 but, while their offer is fair, I have turned them down. Repeatedly.
I want UVA to stop at 11th St. I don't want them to keep putting up gray office buildings populated by workers who come in at 9am and leave at 5pm.
I have some supporters but I also have a few detractors.

I am getting somewhere with this essay, Bear with me.

In the current configuration, the 9 story Syc House will become developed as a hotel and the 10.5 property will be retail on the ground floor and, perhaps a floor of office, with residential above. The residential would be targeted towards medical personnel. We have designed a 550 sq ft model and an 1100 sq ft one.
I met yesterday with a potential investor in the 10.5 project. He asked whether the housing would be apartments (rented) or condos (owned by the resident). I guess that I assumed the latter.
But I started to think about it. We have talked on A2K before about how there may be a generational shift. Young folks today don't necessarily aspire to a house in the suburbs with a white picket fence and a lawn to mow and a long commute twice a day. They want to live in the city with easy access to restaurants. They largely don't cook much anymore.

I am closing in on finishing this. One more paragraph...or two,

Rent or buy. We are a much more mobile society then we were a generation or two ago. We believed then that home ownership was a goal. But now, I think, owning a place is a bit of an albatross.
I am curious about how someone like Cyclo or Failure Arts or other young people might feel re this. I have a customer, perhaps 50 years old, who went through a bit of an ordeal with his house. He survived, but noted today that he will never buy again. He likes the option of turning the key over to the landlord and driving to a new place.

rjb, It depends a great deal on several factors. The first being whether the residents are transient or settlers. In other words, does the area provide for enough jobs with decent pay that will provide them with the wherewithal to live the kind of lifestyle that is in demand in most cities that provides its residence with the right kind of entertainment, restaurants, parks, and cultural events? What is the demand for housing in your area? How secure are the home prices in your area? What are the demands for rentals vs condos? What's the average age of your community?

There are probably other issues that are important, but can't think of at the moment.

At any rate, good luck on your project.

If I were considering becoming a landlord, I would give a lot of thought to regulations governing to whom I could refuse to rent.

Being a landlord to any income property is not an easy job. rjb is building an income property as he's in his semi-retirement, and I sold our income property when I retired, because I didn't want to manage anything after retirement. Some people just love working after retirement. I love my freedom.

I thought Obama said the stimulus would keep unemployment at 8% or below? it doesn't look like we are anywhere close to achieving that anytime soon, and to find 5% unemployment on the chart you have to go back to the Bush years.

HELL NO!!!!!!

okie, It was a wild guess on Obama's part. There is no economist who can predict future unemployment rates; NONE! Your brain is on overdrive to find anything Obama says to give it the word of god to criticize. You should study what GW Bush said, and you'll really find some stupid statements - such as "mission accomplished, compassionate conservative, and I'm a uniter not a divider."

Hey, waterboy, that unemployment rate was based on fraud; people who didn't qualify to buy homes bought homes, and ran their credit card debt to new highs - buying stuff on credit they couldn't afford. That all ended up as the Great Recession.

Digging through yesterday's unemployment numbers, I would think that seeing the unemployment rate rise to 9% would be regarded as a good thing by some here.
In 2010, state and local governments got rid of 260K workers, more than work for GM.
Since a peak in staffing at the state and local government level in 2008, 435K jobs have been shed, which is more than work for GE.
An old (2/4/11) article from Bloomberg projects that for 2011 the number will come in at around 300K. I think it will be more like 360K as non-federal governments will continue to have to cut spending while not being able to raise taxes. Not only is the recession a problem, but - as we have discussed here before - the dirty little secret about unfunded pension obligations is starting to sink in.
Governors have announced intentions to cut payrolls in the months ahead: NY- 10k; TX- 8K and so on. Not the 6 people it takes to fill a pothole, but - unless it is hype - teachers and cops.

rjb, Good info on government layoffs, and we all know there will be more in the future as all levels of government understand that their spending cannot be sustained at current levels. Even the San Jose City has had ten years of deficit spending, and now they are laying off hundreds of workers including police and fire. They are finally looking at the high rate of disability beneficiaries who pay no income taxes; that's a fraud that's been perpetuated for a very long time. They are slow to correct their fiscal problems, and they will only face tougher choices in the future.

I'm recalling our own town government's position. Within the past 18 months, they had a 10% reduction in employment. Fine. Within weeks of the announcement, there was an account of their (our) leasing of umpty ump acres from BLM for the purpose of establishing a network of trails for bikes and 4WD adventurers. There's just something about the priorities I'm unable to grasp.

Interesting post, RJB. As you know, I've followed your and your architect's exploits with enthusiasm. I hope cyclo, failures art, and others will give their takes on the rental/condo question.

Thanks, Osso. I know that you have an interest, as do I, in urban/suburban design which clearly has a link to changes in the sociology. I think that architecture has failed to lead as well as it should have.
There is a condo project down the street that is so goddamn awful. It looks like it should have been built in Atlanta in the 1970's along the interstate. Horrible construction, but cheap. In one respect, it has driven down prices of condos except for those who recognize it as crap.
By the way, I have absolutely no interest in managing rental property. I'll pay someone else 6% to do that. I could never tolerate someone calling me at 6 am yelling that I need to get someone over -NOW - to unclog a toilet after their kid tried to flush a full roll of toilet paper down. And I should pay for it because it wasn't the kid's fault.

I told my tenants to call the plumber, and to have them send me the bill. No phone calls were necessary if the cost was under $100. (That was back in the late nineties.)

The call would come at 2:00 a.m. and it would be a toothbrush accidentally flushed (much harder to retrieve).

Agree on all counts.