114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
H2O MAN
 
  -3  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 11:43 am


Obama is destroying this country.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 01:12 pm
CPI-W .......... 1st Q ..... 2nd Q ..... 3rd Q ..... 4th ..... Average
2008 ............ 207.7 ... 212.9 ...... 215.5 .... 208.1 .. 211.1
2009 ............ 206.5 ... 209.2 ..... 211.0 .... 211.6 .. 209.6
2010 ............ 212.9 .... 214.0 ..... 214.9 ... 214.9 .. 214.0
2011 ............. 218.0

Jan 2011 ..... 216.4
Feb 2011 ..... 217.5
Mar 2011 .... 220.0

CPI-W is one of many CPI's produced on a monthly schedule. March came out on April 15th, completing the 1st Q. It is one I follow closely because it is the one that is used to determine whether there will be any of Cost of Living (COL) increase in social security benefits for the next year. Specifically, by law, the 3rd Q is the period looked at. In the 3rd Q of 2008 CPI peaked at 215.5 and then with the recession CPI-W declined in 3Q's of 2009 and 2010. Hence no SS increase was required, although I recall we got a token one time payment of something like $200.
Prices have been rising (duh, johnboy). I see gas continuing to go up heading into summer. (7 states are reporting current prices over $4. I paid $3.60 Sunday). Perhaps they will stabilize by the 3rd Q but I think that that could be at the $4.50 level. Food I don't know about. It could get ugly.
All in all, I see the CPI-W for the 3rd Q at 227.0 which would result in a COL increase of 5.3% For me that would be an increase of about $800.
Please let me know if you found this article useful. I got the data from government sources but I also visited some media sites where there were comments from viewers, most of which were just as abusive - if not more so - then anything on A2K. Of the rational comments most questioned how it was possible that CPI-W shows an increase of only 1.4% from the 4th Q of 2010 through the 1st Q of 2011.
Thanks to any of you who waded through this.
-RJB
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 01:20 pm
Quote:
We're Now Engaging in the Same Disastrous Policies... Only On a National Level


By Graham Summers
Apr 8 2011 10:5

The financial world is entering a massive process of transition though most folks have failed to see it. That process is that of Ben Bernanke being forced to resign and the US Federal Reserve being broken up.

I know many people believe the Fed is always going to be in power, but they are wrong. The US Federal Reserve is in fact the third central bank the US has had. And it, like the other two, will be dismantled in the next five years.

The reason for this is quite simple. The REAL Crisis (of which 2008 was the warm-up) is fast approaching. When I say REAL Crisis I mean full-scale systemic meltdown, a situation in which the market accomplishes what the Fed, regulators, and US Government at large have failed to do: clean house.

The plain facts are right in front of us. The US is broke on every level: Federal, State, Local, and individual/ consumer. We all know this, but we don’t want to admit it because doing so would likely mean wiping out at minimum 30% of what we have today.

Nobody wants this. Consumers don’t want to lose their retirement accounts or their savings. The Government doesn’t want to lose its unending virtual checkbook. Politicians don’t want to lose their financial backers (the oligarchs). And the Fed certainly doesn’t want to lose its massive Free Lunch.

However, it is clear to everyone that the system is broken. Consider that the very policies that Wall Street developed resulting in the 2008 meltdown (excessive debt, fraud, too much leverage, etc) are now being applied to the Federal balance sheet.

Indeed, the Fed’s response to the Financial Crisis was to do the exact same things Wall Street did.

The only reason it worked for a time was because investors continue to believe that the Fed is some kind of omnipotent financial authority that can take on all debts and back up all monetary transactions. The reason they’re willing to believe this is because not doing so would result in the collapse I referred to before.

To use a metaphor, if your house has a broken foundation (the financial system), you can prop it up using various structures (the Fed). However, eventually the foundation gives way regardless of the support.

We are already seeing this happen in Europe. The Euro is up but the entire European system is broken. No one wants to be a part of it any more. Only the politicians and bankers are trying to keep it together (largely because they don’t want to lose their influence).

However, elections in Germany are making it clear voters will obliterate anyone who is pro bailouts. As a result of this, the tide is turning. Large-scale reform and changes can take a while which is why the process seems to be occurring in slow motion.

But the process is occurring. And nothing can stop it. You can fight the tide tooth and nail, but it will turn regardless of your efforts.

The same situation will hit in the US in the future. I’ve already detailed why the US Dollar is holding up (it’s priced against other paper currencies) despite the fact an exodus from the greenback is occurring.

Meanwhile money continues to funnel into the king of currencies: GOLD.


Indeed we just a hit a new all time high for the precious metal. I mentioned before that the pullback in January was a buying opportunity. If you followed my suggestion you should be doing quite well.

Best Regards,

Good Investing!

Graham Summers


Gold is $1495.

Whadya thunk boys?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 01:34 pm
@spendius,
Gold is a fool's investment; guess what'll happen to gold prices once everybody decides to sell? The nose-dive will be so quick, those who are late will see their paper investment worth less then the paper they're holding.

Gold has no real practical value except to make jewelry and computers - and speculation.

Food and fuel are more important commodities.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 01:51 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

Listening to the majority doesn't mean someone's listening to the best.


Heh heh. I once had an algebra instructor who let us vote on the correct answer. His point; majority may rule, but majority is definately not always right.
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 01:58 pm
@roger,
That's an excellent teaching method. Lots of fun.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 01:58 pm
@cicerone imposter,
That reminds me, CI. For many years my mother was in the stamp and coin business. She was by no means a big player, but she enjoyed it. A sinecure, perhaps. She used to say it kept her off the streets.
Two brothers in Texas (Bass brothers?) tried to corner the silver market. It must have been in the early 80's. The price of silver soared. I can't remember how much of a premium there was for the 90% silver coins minted before 1965. It was a lot. Supposedly dumb rednecks with no knowledge of economics somehow realized that those coins would someday have value they came down from the hollows with socks to buckets full. I would take them to Richmond once a week to a big dealer my mom knew. Thousands of dollars of them. I would park in a loading zone in front of Bill's store. An armed security guard would carry them in.
One morning he called and warned her that something was going on in the silver market. He suggested she stop buying. He was off by only a few days.
The price collapsed as the brothers Bass ran out of money. There was too much supply out there.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 02:04 pm
@realjohnboy,
rjb, They were the Hunt brothers in Texas.

Also, there isn't enough liquid cash "out there" to buy all that gold at those prices. A little common sense goes a long way to save oneself misery.

Here's another way to look at gold prices. The US (alone) has over 8100 tonnes of gold.

Price per oz......Total ounces .................Total value of US gold
$1,450.00 261674926.32206 $379,428,643,166.99

How much liquid cash is available to buy over $379 billion worth of gold?
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 02:28 pm
@cicerone imposter,
also, there is no regular cap gains on gold. We are taxed at 28% , because gold is considered a "collectable" not an investment. The fraud with these gold hawkers is that they fail to say that.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -3  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 04:00 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

Hey H2OMAN, I notice you have the fairtax web address below your signature.


I read that Boortz will be on Hanity tonight, I don't watch Hanity, but I will tune in to see Boortz talk up The Fairtax Plan.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 04:19 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:
Listening to the majority doesn't mean someone's listening to the best.

~~~

I'd definitely be impressed to see any real growth from the U.S. economy in 2011.

Your general point is well-taken, but 2% growth is quite realistic since the US economy is starting from a low basis. Remember, it was already in deep recession in 2010. To achieve 2% growth from 2010 levels, it merely has to prevent unemployment from getting worse. Growth in population and productivity would then take care of the rest. Needless to say, such a jobless recovery would still feel like much like a continued recession to Americans, so it wouldn't be anything to celebrate.
spendius
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 04:32 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Gold is a fool's investment; guess what'll happen to gold prices once everybody decides to sell? The nose-dive will be so quick, those who are late will see their paper investment worth less then the paper they're holding


Get on it ci. Sell it short. You'll make a fortune. Get in early. What's the point in having your acumen if you don't put your money where you gob is? There's nothing cheaper than talk.

Quote:
Gold has no real practical value except to make jewelry and computers - and speculation.


You can put the gold coinage in a washing up bowl and start the day running it through your fingers. That's a better breakfast-time pep up than a 10 mile jog with a havesack full of bricks on your back.

Quote:
Food and fuel are more important commodities.


Obviously.
reasoning logic
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 04:40 pm
@spendius,
Spendius is this what intelligence looks like or is this just hope in desperate times?

Sorry that there is no big blouse!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfBiHCMR-Hw&feature=related
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 05:07 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
They were the Hunt brothers in Texas.


Nelson Bunker and William Herbert. NB was champion British flat racing owner in 1973 and 4. His horse Empery won the Epsom Derby and he won many other top European races. He was a pioneer of Libyan oil exploration. A tough Christian and a Bircher. He was chairman of the Board of the Bible Society of Texas.

Quite a lad really. They lived on junk food.
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 05:09 pm
@Thomas,
I said it originally and I'll say it again.

Obama lies & the economy dies.

Thomas wrote:

... 2% growth is quite realistic since the US economy is starting from a low basis.


Don't count on it.

Rising oil prices and Obama's total ban on anything realistic that would make this country less
dependent on imported oil will snuff out any growth in this country for many years to come.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 05:48 pm
Damn. My threads on the CPI-W and silver speculation got thumbed down. Am I that dull?
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 06:10 pm
@realjohnboy,
Somebody just doesn't like your facts.
0 Replies
 
reasoning logic
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 06:22 pm
@reasoning logic,
Does it take a big blouse for you not to thumb down post Spendius! lol

Here is what I would call young intelligence in the making!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1eMRLsEdRw&feature=related
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 06:23 pm
@spendius,
I don't need to; have enough $$$ to keep me comfortable without needing to speculate on anything. I'm what you call a "lucky bloke."
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Apr, 2011 06:25 pm
@spendius,
Your making that up, Spendius. Aren't you? But vaguely in my fading memory...
0 Replies
 
 

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