@Thomas,
Speaking of bets, Thomas, I continue to move my money on and off the table with regards to whether or not Germany and France will sign on to the euro-zone bailout of Greece. The cost is projected to be something like $160Bn over a couple or three years IF Greece gets its deficits under control. Big IF.
Germany seems to send a different message every day, which results in stock markets world wide being volatile.
The calendar is interesting. Greece needs the money by May 19th to avoid default. There is some big euro-zone meeting on May 10th. But, oops, there are important elections in Germany May 9th. I think I have that time line right.
I would be interested to here your take, as a German, on what might happen.
Americans are, for the most part, naively not following this. But interest rates on government debt in Greece are now in double digits. Spain and Portugal and perhaps Ireland are in difficulty. And pundits are keeping a wary eye on the U.K.
This could be another shoe dropping just as we thought the economic crisis was winding down, having a big impact on our exports and tourism.
Ms Merkel will sign on eventually, I think. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Thanks in advance for your analysis.