Where is the US economy headed?

@genoves,

What are you talking about? I don't have any comments on Obama's "abortive position on climate."

How do you arrive at conclusions for me that I have never spoken on the subject? That's what I call "moronic."

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

You don't have a position on anything! Note my last two posts. At least I give some links. You post without giving evidence. Are you a tenured professor on EVERYTHING?

Give evidence on what you post or butt out!!!!!!!

1 Reply

@genoves,

It's not my fault you don't understand the English language. +

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Hey< English is my first language. What is yours? Chinese? Japanese? Tagalog?

0 Replies

Unemployment 9.4% now. I thought it was supposed to be only 9.2%?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/05/unemployment-rate-climbs-percent-highest-years/

"Republicans Blast Obama Administration as Jobless Rate Hits 9.4 Percent
Republicans cite the latest unemployment figures as evidence that President Obama's $787 stimulus package isn't working."

1 Reply

@okie,

okie wrote:

Unemployment 9.4% now. I thought it was supposed to be only 9.2%?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/05/unemployment-rate-climbs-percent-highest-years/

"Republicans Blast Obama Administration as Jobless Rate Hits 9.4 Percent
Republicans cite the latest unemployment figures as evidence that President Obama's $787 stimulus package isn't working."

The last president who had such high unemployment was Reagan - I suppose you blame him for that too?

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I am not blaming Obama for the beginning of this downturn, but I am pointing out his stimulus package isn't working at all. It was not a stimulus bill, it was a grow government bill. That was predicted by Republicans, cyclops. And the Democrats in Congress bear alot of responsibility for the downturn, the housing crisis, etc.

2 Replies

@okie,

okie wrote:

I am not blaming Obama for the beginning of this downturn, but I am pointing out his stimulus package isn't working at all.

You are asserting it, but not proving it. The Stimulus package is doing exactly what it was designed to do: help states and folks who are on the edge, get by, until the economy re-asserts itself.

Once again, Reagan had been in office for at least 2 or 3 years by this point, and his economy was in the shitter just like the current one; are you going to claim that the things Reagan did or tried didn't work at all, b/c they hadn't worked by that point?

Quote:

It was not a stimulus bill, it was a grow government bill. That was predicted by Republicans, cyclops. And the Democrats in Congress bear alot of responsibility for the downturn, the housing crisis, etc.

Not really. The housing crisis can be blamed, more than any other factor, on greed; and the financial crisis on greed and a lack of regulation. Both of those things are pillars of the Republican philosophy, so I have no idea why you guys aren't owning up to them now.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Knock on wood, of course, but the stock market seems to believe the stimulus is or will work. My investments are up 30% since Bush left office.

1 Reply

@Lightwizard,

Quote:

Knock on wood, of course, but the stock market seems to believe the stimulus is or will work. My investments are up 30% since Bush left office

Governments have spent something on the order of $5 trillion priming the pump, one hopes that it buys something. I don't see where the equities markets have priced in the fact that 30 years of consumption mania is over though. Nor that absent creating another bubble high unemployment is here to stay, which will be very corrosive politically. Nor where the markets have priced in the economic instability that flows from the global economy being debt ridden.

The markets are substainially overpriced.

0 Replies

@okie,

Quote:

I am not blaming Obama for the beginning of this downturn, but I am pointing out his stimulus package isn't working at all. It was not a stimulus bill, it was a grow government bill. That was predicted by Republicans, cyclops. And the Democrats in Congress bear alot of responsibility for the downturn, the housing crisis, etc.

The conventional wisdom has been since Dec that the stimulus will not really kick in till around Sep. The actions taken will do something good short term. The problem is that the added debt will have very negative long term consequences, and our long term prospects were already terrible BEFORE this global economic crash.

Our long term problem is that the entire global economy is mucked in debt, for a generation there will not be enough money to both service debt and have the standard of living that we have come to expect. There will be political hell to pay.

2 Replies

@hawkeye10,

It's because okie doesn't understand how economies work; he expects immediate improvement in our economy from Obama's stimulus plan whiles hundreds of thousands continue to lose their jobs and homes. His ignorance is never-ending.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Job losses by month since things really started to deteriorate (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics):
9/2008: -321,000
10/2008: -380,000
11/2008: -597,000
12/2008: -681,000
1/2009: -741,000
2/2009: -681,000
3/2009: -652,000 (revised 6/5 from 699,000)
4/2009: -504,000 (revised 6/5 from 539,000)
5/2009: -345,000

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

Is that a trend I see? Some flattening, at least.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:

This is kind of interesting. Next to the job losses by month for the whole economy (source: BLS) I have put in the % of those job losses that were attributable to the 500 largest publicly owned companies in the U.S. (source: Forbes), with Sept and Oct not being available:

9/2008: -321,000
10/2008: -380,000
11/2008: -597,000 16%
12/2008: -681,000 29%
1/2009: -741,000 22%
2/2009: -681,000 19%
3/2009: -652,000 6%
4/2009: -504,000 4%
5/2009: -345,000 7%

There were big layoffs in May at MSFT, AMEX, Dupont and HP. Here is how it looks on "Main Street:"

Job losses by month excluding the 500 largest companies:

11/2008: 501,000
12/2008: 484,000
1/2009: 361,000
2/2009: 552,000
3/2009: 657,000
4/2009: 517,000
5/2009: 321,000

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

improvement means adding jobs, means regaining stability in the economy. Right now we are slowing down the collapse. It will be a few months before we see positive numbers.

2 Replies

@hawkeye10,

IMHO it's going to be a lot more than "a few months." We're still bleeding jobs by the thousands every day.

Quote:

U.S. employers cut 345,000 jobs in May.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

IMHO it's going to be a lot more than "a few months." We're still bleeding jobs by the thousands every day.

As the employment situation stabilizes those with jobs will spend a bit more as their personal situation looks more solid, thus increase the profitability of firms. The problem with so many unemployed is that the foreclosure rate and thus housing values will not stabilize for a long time, a year or more, and also there will be increasing political pressure over time to create a jobs program. This is problematic, as the government blew its wad with the bailouts. I look for stabilization and slight improvement for a year to a few years, then on to the next wave of the collapse. The next wave will either be caused by the debt markets or by currency valuation instability.

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@hawkeye10,

Obama is in office 137 days as of today. What do you want, a miracle worker? Dig up Ronald Reagan, then!

2 Replies

@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

improvement means adding jobs, means regaining stability in the economy. Right now we are slowing down the collapse. It will be a few months before we see positive numbers.

Sure, which is why I didn't say 'improvement,' I said 'flattening.' That's exactly what we would expect to see.

After we stop losing job, I predict we will see a period of 8 months-1 year before any meaningful gains start back up.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Where is the US economy headed?

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