114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 06:49 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye, I agree 100%! It's criminal the way our government is treating Americans vs foreigners with taxpayer money.
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roger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 06:57 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Oh, if I were citing Opinion, Commentary, or Letters, I would make note of the fact. Now, if I thought I had some great insight that were inspired by a letter, I might not.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 08:18 pm
Economic xenophobia. The entire world financial crisis is the fault of the Chinese.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 09:16 pm
@realjohnboy,
We still suffer from economic xenophobia in the US; Hispanics are the primary target.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 10:01 pm
I am fascinated with the auto dealer closings? Who decided which ones, and on what basis? I would like to know alot more about this. It does not seem logical. You don't sell more cars by closing your dealers. I have been in another business with some experience selling to distributors and retailers, and about the dumbest thing you could do is tell them to close their doors and cut down the number and variety of outlets to get your product out there to the people. If you are propping up the dealers, then quit propping them up and let them decide whether they can be profitable and stay in business, but to tell them to close their doors, that is beyond dumb in my opinion, it is bordering on the outright bizarre. Is that what they teach in business school? It can't be.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 10:06 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

Economic xenophobia. The entire world financial crisis is the fault of the Chinese.


Actually I haven't heard anybody say that nor does anybody--at least anybody with a clue--believe Obama created the economic problems he inherited. But as the days, weeks, and months tick by, however, he is going to be less and less credible trying to blame everything on George W. Bush too.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 10:08 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

I am fascinated with the auto dealer closings? Who decided which ones, and on what basis? I would like to know alot more about this. It does not seem logical. You don't sell more cars by closing your dealers. I have been in another business with some experience selling to distributors and retailers, and about the dumbest thing you could do is tell them to close their doors and cut down the number and variety of outlets to get your product out there to the people. If you are propping up the dealers, then quit propping them up and let them decide whether they can be profitable and stay in business, but to tell them to close their doors, that is beyond dumb in my opinion, it is bordering on the outright bizarre. Is that what they teach in business school? It can't be.


I was listening to a commentary on that this morning. An auto 'guru'--sorry I don't recall the name--explained that with GM producing 1/4 of the cars and trucks it once produced, there would not be enough inventory to sustain all those dealerships.

Nobody asked him why some of the most profitable dealerships had their franchises pulled while some less profitable dealerships were retained, however. I wish they had.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 10:23 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre, I would not be surprised to see a shrinking business also experience a shrinking number of dealers or outlets. What is bothersome or bizarre, is the manner in which this is being done, from the top down rather than from the bottom up. Why not let the market determine which ones close? That would be far more logical, and it would not create the same bitterness out there in the communities that experience this process. By dictating closings, based upon some poorly understood reasons, you are not only losing customers, you are alienating entire communities and former dealers and employees.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jun, 2009 10:35 pm
@okie,
This has had me mystified, as well. One guess, and it's only a guess, is that there isn't enough sales volumn to support the number of dealers. That is, they may feel it's better to have a number of healthy dealers than a really big number of dealers on life support. My best guess, though, is that GM has had some supportive financial arrangments with their dealers, and are no longer able to continuing the financing. This is the "floor planning financing" we've heard of.

Like you, I'm pretty sure that fewer dealers will result in fewer sales. Fewer service shops could even tip the decision to a brand that is better supported.

As for which dealers lose the franchise, they may be eliminating duplicate coverage in the major metro areas.

100% guessing.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 12:35 am
@roger,
Quote:
This has had me mystified, as well. One guess, and it's only a guess, is that there isn't enough sales volumn to support the number of dealers. That is, they may feel it's better to have a number of healthy dealers than a really big number of dealers on life support. My best guess, though, is that GM has had some supportive financial arrangments with their dealers, and are no longer able to continuing the financing. This is the "floor planning financing" we've heard of


You are mystified because the car companies are not being honest about why they need to cut dealers. Each dealer, and each car sitting on a lot costs the car companies money. They cut the dealers and thus cut the number of dealers that they need to support financially, and they also cut the number of cars that will be sitting on lots all across America. They car companies claim that they want to make those that can survive more healthy by cutting the dead weight, much as you cut tree samplings in order to make the tree stronger. This is BS, a dishonest sales pitch.
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 09:22 am
@hawkeye10,
I heard the opposite on POTUS (XM radio) yesterday. They had a couple of impacted car dealers who were telling about the business.

I heard them specifically say that cars sitting on the lots do not cost the car companies any money. In fact, the car dealer has to pay the car company money for each car that is resting on their lots each month (and then a significant portion of the sale price).

I don't know if the dealers cost the company money, but it sure doesn't seem like the cars do.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 09:41 am
Unless they don't manufacture enough cars to stock current dealers, it would obviously be better to store them at dealers lots where they can potentially be sold than sitting in massive lots at the place of manufacture. For example, inventory sitting in a warehouse doesn't make any company any money, nor does it sell product. It seems to me they should simply cut the numbers of cars sitting at dealers if they don't have enough, rather than cutting dealers. In the old days, I think there were less cars at dealers, and more people ordered the cars to their liking, then the right car was found at another dealer or at the manufacturer for the customer. Bottom line, if the dealers can't make money, let them decide to close down. If GM is supporting unprofitable dealers, then yank the support (if there is indeed that much support and there is conflicting information on this), but do it across the board, at least based upon some fair criteria, volume or something. But to arbitrarily tell the dealer to close, we are yanking your franchise, that is very bad business practice in my opinion, and is surely to be counterproductive.

In the businesses I have been involved in, I have found to my somewhat surprise that big companies are notoriously dumb in the way they conduct some facets of their businesses. They are much less efficient than small businesses or companies in some respects. So I am not inclined to accept the idea that GM knows what they are doing in regard to this.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 10:02 am
Meanwhile the media is not particularly helpful to explain why it is necessary to close dealerships. Probably the reporters don't have a clue either, but the whole process has apparently been done without much input from Congress:

Quote:
GM, Chrysler Defend Closing Dealers

WASHINGTON (June 3) - The chiefs of General Motors and Chrysler told Congress on Wednesday they have too many dealers to support their slimmed down operations and sacrifices must be shared as they fight to overcome bankruptcy and survive. They acknowledged that slashing dealerships is causing pain in communities around the country.

GM is aiming for "fewer, stronger brands as well as fewer, stronger dealers," GM President Fritz Henderson said in testimony prepared for the Senate Commerce Committee. "These are tough times for everyone in the GM family." . . . .

. . . . .Meanwhile, a group of Republicans distressed by the Obama administration's temporary nationalization of GM is proposing that congressional approval be required before money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program is used to buy a stake in a company.
The lawmakers complained that Congress had no opportunity to review the Obama administration's decision to take a 60 percent ownership of GM.
"General Motors needed a real bankruptcy, not a political bankruptcy," said Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C.

"We end up owning 60 percent of the stock and not a single vote was cast on that plan," said Sen. Mike Johanns, R-Neb. Johanns said the amendment, which they hope to consider Thursday, would apply to any money provided after May 29.

The third Detroit automaker, Ford Motor Corp., has not filed for bankruptcy protection and has not taken any federal bailout money. It has also not announced widespread dealership closings.

Car dealers are a potent political force, contributing more than $9 million to federal candidates for the 2008 elections.
http://money.aol.com/article/gm-chrysler-defend-closing-dealers/486222?flv=1


This one was a bit more helpful in providing a rationale:

Quote:
. . . ."I want you to know," said President Barack Obama to the thousands of dealerships about to be closed, "you're making a sacrifice for the next generation."

That's because many analysts don't believe closing dealerships will make an immediate impact on the bottom lines of the automakers.

"I personally don't believe it does help the car manufacturer," said Steve Hewitt, the partner who heads the Dealer Services Group of WIPFLi, a Minneapolis accounting and consulting firm.

"Once the car leaves the dock of the manufacturer, it's the dealer's problem," explained Hewitt. "The dealer carries the cost of financing that inventory. The dealer carries the cost of advertising. And the dealer carries the real estate associated with selling that product."

He called the distribution system of the automakers "virtually no-cost" to them. However, carmakers do have some costs in dealing with dealerships. There are trainers who travel the country teaching technicians how to repair the cars. There are auditors who analyze all the requests for warranty reimbursement from the dealers. And there is a sales force that sells cars to the dealers.

General Motors has nearly 6,000 dealers, Chrysler has 3,200 while Toyota has just under 1,700 dealers.

"I do believe that's where the domestic manufacturers are headed," said Hewitt.

The foreign automakers have a system that is less reliant on small, rural dealerships. Instead they favor large, gleaming superstores.

It's more efficient to write fewer checks to reimburse dealers for warranty repairs.

Plus: "fewer dealers offers less competition," pointed out Hewitt.

Right now it's fairly easy to compare a Chevy at two different dealerships and then pit dealer versus dealer in an effort to get the best price. That is cutting into the profit margins of the dealers and some believe it's hurting the brand image of GM and Chrysler. It also makes it harder for dealers to pour money into upgrades and improvements of their own facilities.

"Very, very few profitable dealers are being asked to wind down," said Mark LaNeve, Vice President of Sales, Service and Marketing for General Motors "We had a very objective process based on sales and [consumer satisfaction index] performance and profitability."

"The remaining dealers will have a chance to have a terrific business and compete effectively. We will still have far and away to most extensive dealer network in the US," explained LaNeve.

According to General Motors, 400 of the dealers they are forcing to close sold fewer than 50 cars last year.

But Hewitt pointed out that the dealers bear the cost of cars that don't sell. He said dealers should have the right to make their own decision as to when they need to close their business. . . .
http://wcco.com/local/closing.auto.dealerships.2.1027387.html
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 05:02 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:

Economic xenophobia. The entire world financial crisis is the fault of the Chinese.


Actually I haven't heard anybody say that...


I have, Foxfyre. The "logic" of the "Chinese Conspiracy" to bankrupt the U.S. goes like this: (1) They have kept the currency exchange rate vs the dollar artificially low (True) allowing them to (2) export massive quantities of stuff to the U.S. that American manufacturer's can't begin to compete with (Probably True). (3) Americans race to the discount stores to buy up the stuff and put it all on credit cards (More than a bit of a stretch).
(4) China ends up with vaults full of dollars (True) which they (5) lend to the U.S. (True). This (6) keeps U.S. interest rates low (Probably) and (7) causes banks to chase after better yields by making riskier and riskier loans (Could be, but probably more complicated than that).
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 05:51 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:

Economic xenophobia. The entire world financial crisis is the fault of the Chinese.


Actually I haven't heard anybody say that nor does anybody--at least anybody with a clue--believe Obama created the economic problems he inherited. But as the days, weeks, and months tick by, however, he is going to be less and less credible trying to blame everything on George W. Bush too.


Well I have a confession to make. I misread your statement to be "....the entire world financial crisis is the fault of Obama". Which kinda sorta explains why I responded to it as I did. Smile

But now putting it into its proper context, and properly translating "Obama" to be 'the Chinese" that you actually said, I still hadn't heard that. But the way you illustrate it is interesting in one of those wierd conspiratorial ways that sometimes gain legs. So what do you think? Are the Chinese that savvy?
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 07:16 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

So what do you think? Are the Chinese that savvy?

Damn straight "they" are. I'll come back to who "they" are in a bit.

Now that I am semi-retired, I watch the listings of free lectures at UVA. Often by eager doctoral candidates or "fellows" or at loosely affiliated Think Tanks . I look for the ones that offer a reception after. Free supper for RJB, often in exchange for sitting through a ponderous presentation where the talker uses Power-point to present paragraphs of stuff and then proceeds to read it to us.
But I digress.
The Chinese technocrats in Economics are savvy. At least the few I have met. They studied at elite universities in China and abroad. They are not, in my mind, party hacks. So the "Conspiracy Theory" falls apart. It would not be in China's interest to see the U.S. economy fail.
Of bigger concern , it seems to me, is this: the massive Chinese populace is demanding a share of the economic pie. The Chinese technocrats know that, we in the West know that and perhaps the Chinese government realizes that. They have perhaps 8-10 years before there are big troubles there. -rjb-
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 07:51 pm
@realjohnboy,
The Chinese in China already have huge problems with pollution. Most of their environment stinks and kills. Many places in China do not have fresh water. They use coal to produce most of their energy, and will continue to do so for many decades.

It's true that China does not want to see the US economy fail , because they own too much US bonds. They're between a rock and a hard place, because the devaluation of the US dollar decreases our debt to China, and makes our products and services cheaper on the world marketplace.

China has already closed thousands of factories necessitated by the world economic downturn, and the recovery will take five plus years before we begin to see any improvement.

It's going to be a long haul for everybody.



genoves
 
  0  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 08:32 pm
I am very much afraid that unless this article is spurious, the Chinese are going to hang Obama his head on a platter with regard to his environmental "cap and trade" insanities.

Note:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124290515793142949.html

In this article, A DOCUMENT outlining China's stance ahead of the December Climate talks in Copenhagen states:

a. China wants developed nations to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2020 from 1990 levels.

b. China is also asking rich countries to donate at least 0.5% to 1.0% of GDP to help poorer countries cope with climate change.

c. China has resisted any mandatory quotas on carbon emissions.

d. China has surpassed the US as the world's top polluter.

e. India has also refused to accept carbon caps since they would limit economic growth and unfarily penalize LATE-DEVELOPING NATIONS>




How could the past president of the Harvard Law Review be so stupid?

If China and India do not get on board on the alleged "global warming" ploy, then any action we take will be irrelevant and merely costly and lead to more job losses.

Maybe BO will charm them!!!
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genoves
 
  0  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 08:35 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Cicerone Imposter continues to show that he is probably the most moronic poster on these threads. China will bury us economically if we press for Obama's abortive position on climate.
genoves
 
  0  
Reply Thu 4 Jun, 2009 08:44 pm
Realjohnboy- You may be interested in an article _"Why Bejing Wants A Stronger Dollar" by Zachary Karabell. His new book- "Superfusion-How China and America Became One Economy and How the World's Prosperity Depends on It"

Karabell wrote:

To see China's holdings as a threat is to misjudge the goals of the Chinese government. China believes that its affluence is best guaranteed by economic interdependence with the world's most dynamic economy...And while there is a competetive component to China's ambitions, it is competition within the framework of capitalism more than nationalism"

end of quote

See

http://www.google.com/search?q=Why+Bejing+Wants+a+Strong+Dollar&rlz=1I7DKUS_en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7
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