114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 12:57 am
Hawkeye 10 wrote:

The federal budget deficit is projected to approach $1.3 trillion next year, the highest ever except for this year, when the deficit is forecast to exceed $1.8 trillion. The Treasury is borrowing 46 cents of every dollar it spends, largely from China and other foreign creditors, who are growing increasingly uneasy about the security of their investments.
********************************************************************

This, of course, means that Obama is the most spendthrift President in History

Does he really want to understand the USA or is he just Economically challenged?
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 12:58 am
Re: hawkeye10 (Post 3654496)
You have a clear view of what is going to happen, Hawkeye 10.

From a high of 6.7% under Bush to at least 12% under BO by the end of this year.

You have also zeroed in on the incredible debt which BO has saddled us with.
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT!

By the way, a Trillion Dollars is a HUNDRED THOUSAND MILLION DOLLARS.

But ex-ghetto workers like BO are used to getting goverment largess.
Francis
 
  2  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 01:02 am
@genoves,
Genoves wrote:
By the way, a Trillion Dollars is a HUNDRED THOUSAND MILLION DOLLARS.


Oh yeah?

Quote:
What's a trillion dollars?

A trillion dollars = $1,000,000,000,000.

That's 12 zeroes to the left of the decimal point. A trillion is a million million dollars.

genoves
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 01:17 am
@Francis,
Thank you for the correction, Francis. It is then FAR WORSE THAN I THOUGHT. The Socialist Obama is going to bankrupt the USA.

Not a Hundred thousand Million but a million million--thank you, Francis.

I am glad you pay attention. If you keep your attention focused, you will learn a great many more things about BO, the man from the inner city Ghetto!
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 01:19 am
Well, I do hope, Francis, that you frogs are not copying Obama.


I read the following:

AFP - France's budget minister on Tuesday revised upwards the public deficit forecast for 2009 as the European Commission was considering action to rein in over-spending.

The public deficit "is bound to reach more than 4.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2009", Eric Woerth said in an interview to the online magazine Capital.fr.

The forecast that a deficit forecast of 86 billion euros (109 billion dollars) would be "revised upward."

The European Union's Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia warned in Brussels that action could be taken soon against EU member states which allowed their deficits blow out.

France has called for the EU limit, restricting public deficits to a maximum of 3.0 percent of output, to be eased as governments grapple with the worst economic downturn in decades.

It had said it expected its deficit to be 3.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2008 and 4.4 percent in 2009.

end of quote--

Maybe you are eating too much cheese and drinking too much wine!
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 01:21 am
@genoves,
I do not support assertions biaised by political and racial views, which is obviously the case here.

I do prefer stick to figures and their evolution..
genoves
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 01:29 am
@Francis,
I would be so happy that you do not support assertions biaised by political and racial views, if I could find out how assertions can be B I A I S E D.

However, you appear to be very dense. Are you aware that you do not have to support anything you do not wish to support on these threads?

Are you aware that writers on these threads are able to give their opinions? Iknow that the French do not allow critical discourse because of their ridiculous Gallic presumption that they are the best people in Europe.

I am sure that if you asked Herr Hinteler, he would remind you that the Germans kicked French ass twice in the twentieth century.

You need to support nothing you do not agree with, Francis. Here, the objective is to find evidence to show that the person who is "biaised" is wrong. You seem to be good at math. Are you as good at finding evidence to show that someone is in error philosophically?
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  3  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 03:42 am
Genoves wrote:
Are you as good at finding evidence to show that someone is in error philosophically?


Yes, I am.

But I don't feel compelled as to explain him in what consists his error..

(Maybe my Gallic presumption..)
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 08:54 am
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

This bites. I have a credit card for my business. Many of my small suppliers prefer to be paid upon shipment with a card. Cash flow and bad debt issues. Fine with me. It costs about $1.50 to write and mail a check and this card offered a 1% rebate each month on my purchases - which averaged about $8000/month. The card has a $25000 limit, which was more than ample. We always paid the full balance on time. Never a late fee or interest.
Today (5/26) I get a "Dear customer" letter that says (in essence): The institution that funds outstanding balances (i.e. "buys" the credit card debt) has suspended operations. Your card is canceled as of 5/31. You have made $X in purchases since your last statement. We will allow an additional $500 of charges. Any charge made later will be declined. Have a nice day.
It matters little to me. I was in it for the rebate and the savings vs writing checks. My cash flow is fine.
The timing of this -just a week or so after Congress passed credit card reform- suggest to me that the bean counters looked at my history and decided they were not making any money off of me and people like me.

I too use credit cards solely as a convenience, to be paid at the end of each month. I never pay interest, as I always considered that to be totally stupid, after all, why be willingly robbed? I see you used credit cards on a larger scale for your business, to your advantage, good for you.

With the inevitable shakeout as a result of the credit card reform, which by the way is maybe about the only thing I so far agree with the Obama administration on, I will simply give up any credit card that begins to charge more fees, and I will shop around, and if necessary I will go without a card completely. My parents never owned a credit card, never, and so I know it can be done, and it wasn't much of a problem. The whole credit card industry became too big of an industry for what it has deserved to be.

A couple more suggestions for the Obama administration if they wish to eliminate financial predators. One huge one would be government run lotteries. Another perhaps the advance payday loan people.

P.S. I did get a notice from one of my credit cards, saying my credit amount had been lowered, the reason given, I didn't need it because I never used it. That had me scratching my head, but it matters not to me, I don't plan on borrowing from them anyway. My credit score is just the same, so I don't know the real reason for it. Maybe it is to limit their exposure if my card is stolen? After all, if I never use it, maybe they figure why carry that high of a credit limit?
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 11:34 am
@okie,
The credit card is a wonderful tool, however, when you need to make a purchase and the vendor doesn't have debit card capability, doesn't accept checks, and you have insufficient cash. It also takes all the hassle out of renting a car or other items, makes hotel registration much less complicated without giving any vendor access to your bank account, and other than paying cash is a necessity at many restaurants, and makes buying fuel at self serve pumps quick and effortless.

I personally would find it difficult to do my work without the convenience of credit cards, but like most others never pay late fees or interest. And I wonder if the credit cards companies do really lose on me though as the vendors do pay a fee for accepting the cards. We haven't paid interest or a fee on a credit card for many years, yet the credit card companies keep regularly sending us new cards. Why would they do that if they were losing money on me year after year?

See this useful discussion on the subject - excerpted -

Quote:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 at 12:01 pm
If I'm such an unprofitable customer, Citi should feel free to take back my credit card at any time

. . . .Every time I buy something with my credit card, the store I buy it from pays an interchange fee to"in my case"Citigroup (via Mastercard). This makes perfect sense. There is a value to the store in accepting credit cards; I am more likely to shop there. Interchange fees tend to run about 2% to 3% of what you spend. That might seem like a hefty cut. In fact, businesses really complain about how high interchange fees have become. It doesn't look like that's changing anytime soon, though.

How valuable are interchange fees"and, by extension, customers who don't funnel card companies money by carrying balances month-to-month? Well, according to a 2006 report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office, for every $100 in credit-card balances outstanding, card companies make $10.45 in profit from interest and $2.87 in revenue from interchange fees. Yes, interest accounts for a bigger slice. But there's a risk that comes from that revenue stream"card companies never know when balance-carrying customers will stop paying their bills. That's hardly a minor issue: default rates at many card companies are approaching 10%. Interchange fees, by comparison, are essentially risk-free.

Another interesting comparison from the GAO report: revenue from penalty fees accounts for $1.40 for every $100 charged"half of what the firms make from people simply using their credit cards. The next time someone tries to tell you that legislating a fairer system for assessing penalty fees will make card companies stick it to their good customers, you might bring that up.

Now, it is possible that at $2.87 for every $100 charged, I'm not a profitable customer. It is possible that Citi has extended me credit in the hopes that some day, some glorious day, I'll rack up $8,000 in charges and then spend years to pay them off. But again, I'm dubious. I've been with Citi for a long time. They're pretty used to my spending"and bill-paying"habits. If they were losing so much money on me, why would they send me a new credit card, under the same terms, when my old one expired? More to the point, why would credit-card companies, in the aggregate, do business with the 42% of American households that pay off their balance each month? . . . .

More here:
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/05/19/if-im-such-an-unprofitable-customer-citi-should-feel-free-to-take-back-my-credit-card-at-any-time/
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 11:49 am
@Foxfyre,
Quote:
If they were losing so much money on me, why would they send me a new credit card, under the same terms, when my old one expired? More to the point, why would credit-card companies, in the aggregate, do business with the 42% of American households that pay off their balance each month? . . . .


I really don't see how you guys miss out on the business model the CC companies employ.

Every one of you guys who 'pays their balance in full' every month is being responsible and you are still trickling money in to the CC companies; and EVENTUALLY a certain percentage of you will screw up, have bad accidents, have health problems, lawsuits whatever, and suddenly the person who is used to charging everything and paying off every month will be charging but NOT paying every month. It's a revenue stream waiting to happen and it costs them little to allow it to continue.

Additionally, it promotes the 'credit culture' which spreads business for them all by itself.

Don't forget that the CC companies are betting that you will fail; and a large percentage of people DO fail. You are a horse in their race, it's a shitty position to be in, even if you think you are getting ahead.

Cycloptichorn
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 12:00 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I don't think so. As did the writer of the piece I excerpted, we have a track record spanning years now and the credit card companies have access to our credit score and are familiar with our spending habits. It isn't like a life insurance company that gambles that you'll pay more in premiums before you die than you will collect when you die or they can make up any difference through investments.

Yes if we paid interest we would be more profitable. But we are more profitable than those who pay late fees and are a lot more profitable than those who default. So that does seem to blow a hole in the theory that the credit card companies want bad customers more than good customers.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 12:11 pm
@Foxfyre,
Those so-called credit track records are no longer reliable or used by many crediting companies; even those with relatively high credit (FICO) scores are denied credit today - especially in trying to buy a home.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 12:17 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

I don't think so. As did the writer of the piece I excerpted, we have a track record spanning years now and the credit card companies have access to our credit score and are familiar with our spending habits. It isn't like a life insurance company that gambles that you'll pay more in premiums before you die than you will collect when you die or they can make up any difference through investments.


Yes, it is.

Let us say that the CC company has 100 customers like you, all who charge up 2k in bills per month but who pay their bills off fully every month. They get roughly $3 on every $100 you spend, so that amounts to $60 per customer per month or around $6,000 per month in revenues. Of course, they have administrative costs but as we have little way of knowing how high those are, let's ignore them for now.

I'm quite sure that over time a certain percentage of that group will start to fall behind on their payments, and the amount of profit on them goes up tremendously. Let us say that 5% of the aforementioned 100 people will fall behind over the course of any given year. If they have an interest rate of 10%, they could easily end up paying an extra thousand or two each in interest over the course of a year.

5 people x $100o in interest (which is conservative really, some interest rates are MUCH higher) = almost as much money as the other 95 people combined.

The CC companies are betting that more people will default out of that 100-person group than the cost of running the business for that 100-person group. They don't need to make a cent of profit on you right now - they just have to wait and bet on your falling behind. Which does happen, probably more than 5 out of 100 customers fall behind at some point over any three-year period.

Quote:
Yes if we paid interest we would be more profitable. But we are more profitable than those who pay late fees


No, you are not more profitable than those who pay late fees. No way.

Quote:
and are a lot more profitable than those who default.


Maybe. Collections agencies and the Bankruptcy bill lead to a lot of that money actually coming back to the industry.

Quote:
So that does seem to blow a hole in the theory that the credit card companies want bad customers more than good customers.


There has to be a careful balance for the industry to work under its' current revenue model. They need both bad AND good customers, and yes, they need a lot of bad customers to support giving perks to the good ones. If every customer paid in full every month, there would be no 'cash back' or 'frequent flier miles.' They couldn't afford to do it!

This is the situation which will hopefully come about soon: one in which the pre-eminence of the 'credit lifestyle' becomes less and less.

Cycloptichorn
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 04:10 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
So how about it, cyclops, if you are cheerleading on the government making credit card companies quit pillaging the poor, how about the governments quit pillaging the poor with lotteries? Just wonder if you want to be consistent? After all, they both offer a "something for nothing" philosophy.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 04:12 pm
@genoves,
genoves wrote:

Hawkeye 10 wrote:

The federal budget deficit is projected to approach $1.3 trillion next year, the highest ever except for this year, when the deficit is forecast to exceed $1.8 trillion. The Treasury is borrowing 46 cents of every dollar it spends, largely from China and other foreign creditors, who are growing increasingly uneasy about the security of their investments.
********************************************************************

This, of course, means that Obama is the most spendthrift President in History

Does he really want to understand the USA or is he just Economically challenged?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 04:43 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

So how about it, cyclops, if you are cheerleading on the government making credit card companies quit pillaging the poor, how about the governments quit pillaging the poor with lotteries? Just wonder if you want to be consistent? After all, they both offer a "something for nothing" philosophy.


I'm not big on lotteries. But they aren't trying to make profits off of either deceiving or usury, as Credit cards do. The odds are printed on the back of pretty much every ticket I've seen. You don't ever end up in situations where you owe the Lottery commission money. Not exactly the same thing.

Cycloptichorn
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 04:59 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Lotteries are a money pump. Not a lot different from stealing candy out of baby's prams.

The money is pumped from the provinces into the metropolis to fund wine bars, feminist propaganda and arty-farty jollifications. Media centres are in the megalopolitan areas and hence are in favour.

Some fringe groups are just too clever for ordinary people.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 05:34 pm
Good evening to yall. Thank you for participating in the discussion about credit cards. We all seem to fit the category of "bad" customers. We pay the bill on time each month. I note that I, a merchant, pay about 2.5% on card purchases. Our feeling, though, is that we more than make that up on "add on" or impulse purchases.
MOVING RIGHT ALONG ---
Yesterday, the Dow soared on the Consumer Confidence numbers. I mentioned before that my sales were up 6% April over last April, and May is looking strong. It was only in the 4th quarter that things fell apart, so I will have some easy comps then.
Today, the Dow slumped by a nearly equal amount, led down by GM's impending bankruptcy, the British pound rising vs the dollar, oil prices reaching a 6-month high and a report indicating that, despite existing home sales rising 3% in April, the number of unsold homes rose 9% to 4 million.

And then, deep down in the news, was this. The price on the U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell from Tuesday's to Wednesday's price such that the yield rose from 3.55% to 3.72%. That is big, because that rate is often used to set consumer and mortgage loan rates. I think anyone with half a brain realizes that the recovery measures initiated by President Bush and accelerated by President Obama would result in inflation. That was deemed as okay if it got us out of the freezing up of bank lending. Alas, despite the ads that banks may be lending, it is still mighty cold out here.

Enough from me. Get back to your one-line quips and barbs.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 May, 2009 05:41 pm
@realjohnboy,
Well- I have never had a CC in my life. Nor a mobile phone.

As I understand it from an expert, when you use a CC or a MP the government knows the longtitude and latutude of the two square feet of floor space on which you are standing at the time. If you are known to be an insignificant person I don't think they bother about it though.

My expert told me that the government was probably unaware of my existence.
0 Replies
 
 

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