Where is the US economy headed?

oe, you intentionally misrepresent what I have just said. Never have I claimed the recession was only Obama. What I have said is that the Obama Market Effect has made the problem worse than it would have been otherwise, here, and furthermore, the global economy not only affects us, but we also affect it greatly. We would still have a recession, and I have said this a number of times. I don't expect an apology for misrepresenting my opinion, but at least try to be objective, oe. I know you are emotionally dedicated to Obama, and any hint of fault is a really tough pill to swallow for you as well as all the other koolaid drinkers, but the time will come that all of this will have to be acknowledged. The markets are in fact greatly affected by public confidence in the future and in economic policies being planned, and there is just no denial of it.

okie, Your problem is you not only lack emotion, but also common sense. You expect miracles from Obama after he's been in office for less than three months. That is senseless and bone-headed. He has recruited some of the smartest and brightest in finance and the economy, the very opposite of GW Bush who recruited based on party affiliation.

Not only that, but you have already claimed Obama as a failure. You need another crystal ball that will give you more clarity, because what you see are ignorance and extremism.

Ritholtz' pyramid of misery. Where do you fall on it?



Cycloptichorn

Dumb post, ci. Head of the IRS is a tax cheat. Smartest and brightest, LOL. I've heard mostly academics, ci, and stands to reason, Obama is an academic, he has little or no practical experience or knowledge of economics.

If he's a tax cheat, why don't you have him charged? You're all mouth and no guts. Quit complaining if you're not going to do anything about it.

I don't have the power to do it, ci. Your man, Obama, and his compatriots are in charge. If I was head of the IRS, I would look into auditing politicians however, because I think it could help our coffers alot, especially Democrats that failed to pay taxes.

You are pathetic, actually. If I complain for paying taxes to an organization responsible for collecting taxes, headed by a guy that did not pay all his taxes, its my fault for not charging him, its not Obama's fault. The people in charge should do something about it, such as fire all the tax cheats and get some credible people in there to run the operation.

Why do you think tea parties are springing up all over the country? I might have to go to one, if I didn't have to work, maybe I would.

If you can't do it, quit barking like a mad dog.

Deficit grows by leaps and bounds, and no sign of any stimulus working yet:

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. budget deficit almost hit $1 trillion during the first six months of this fiscal year which began on October 1, according to estimates released on Monday by the Congressional Budget Office.

......

In comparison, the federal deficit for the first six months of fiscal 2008 was $313 billion, roughly a third of the estimated current total.

More red ink is expected to pile up this fiscal year, with CBO projecting the deficit could total more than $1.8 trillion -- by far a record. CBO has forecast the deficit would drop a bit in fiscal 2010, to nearly $1.4 trillion."

so far as I know there is general agreement that the stimulus will take 6 months to kick in. There is also wide agreement that all it will do is stop the falling of the economy, for a limited duration. What happens after depends upon psychology. The sings so far are not good at all. The mood of the country for long term prospects economically have gotten worse over the last months, not better as was hoped. The government kicking into action was supposed to make everyone feel better, but it seems to have had the opposite effect as it has made people aware of how much trouble we are in. There has also been a lot of national conversation about the problems that the cure itself will cause long term, which was certainly nor part of the plan. We can't blame the GOP for this, as the recovery plan lacks documentation in logic, and has been generally applied in back rooms and in an amateuristic manor to boot. Not to mention it has been sold almost exclusively using the fear up approach, which is never a good thing in a democracy.

I'm totally broke. Where do I apply for a bailout?

At your local bank. Bring a gun.

I haven't got one. Our government doesn't trust us to have guns in civilian life.

+1

Some people are predicting considerable violence within a couple of years directed at bankers, CEO, government officials, et al. I guess the thought is that jobs will continue to disappear and minimal help will be available to the suffering.

Do you agree?

There is no doubt that the government, at the end of Mr Bush's term and the start of President Obama's, has been hurling money like crazy at various segments of the economy.
Okie notes that this activity leads to record budget deficits with, so far, little to show in the way of progress.
I would quietly like to suggest that, when the economics books are written in the future, we will learn that we came precitiously close to a melt-down of our banking system. But I may be exageratting. I don't think so.
So where are we:
- The stock market is up, which is good for those that have money there
- Employment is stabilizing. New claims down, but employment is a lagging indicator. Employers will add hours back to the under-employed before hiring new workers
- Inventories at stores and in warehouses are at record lows. The theory is that those will have to be rebuilt. I tend to doubt that.

I do sense some optimisn amongst the folks I talk to locally and nationally. But we certainly have a ways to go.

John Bogle would not let the institutional money managers off the hook for the present state of our economy. And nothing is being done about them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/12/business/12gret.html?_r=1

Ditto: in the last two weeks more than a few have peaked out from under the covers, wondering if the worst is over. I wonder myself, will the massive spending by governments make things stabilize for a time? I can easily imagine getting a few decent years in with marginal growth. I am confident however that in that case there will be another crash a few years down the road, that one a depression for sure. We have not learned our lessons and changed our ways yet. I am organizing my family finances for a depression, and if I am wrong so be it.

With the global economic system as unstable as it is you gotta mitigate the downside potential in personal finances.

The worst is not over until our unemployment problem is resolved at the current rate of about 22,000 lost jobs daily.

Our problems are far from over. Not until the administration actually acknowledges the root of the problems and addresses the problems instead of the symptoms will we ever solve this more long term. We may be able to rock along for a few years by pouring money at problems, but it will only delay the inevitable for a while, but the inevitable could actually expand into an even worse crisis down the road. For example, you can keep the wolves away from the door by consolidating all your debts into one loan, but if your lifestyle of borrowing and spending continues, the debts only grow in number and size, and the wolf grows bigger and has more friends with him when he comes to the door tomorrow.

The problem is our competitive disadvantages in the world market, as experienced by the private sector. No amount of government spending or regulation will fix this. In fact, some of what we are doing will only make the problems worse than they are now, longterm. What we need to do is improve the landscape for enhancing our ability to compete as a nation, with our private sector, for ourselves and with the rest of the world.

To solve a problem, one must first correctly identify the cause of the problem, and Obama gets an F in this regard.

okie, What exactly are the cause of the problems?