Where is the US economy headed?

@hawkeye10,

The consumer must make sure that if they plan on a cruise too far ahead, that cruise line may go bust before the cruise date, and lose all their money. Plan carefully.

0 Replies

@cicerone imposter,

from MSN - MONEY :

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=BW&Date=20081126&ID=9408704&Symbol=MAR

Quote:

We note that Carnival Cruise Lines CCL and Royal Caribbean RCL both recently suspended their common stock dividend in order to ensure that liquidity would not become an issue even if the operating environment deteriorated significantly from the already challenging levels. We viewed these proactive moves positively. Other companies in the travel and leisure industry, however, may not have such options available.

for the time being we are staying away from cruises .
being stuck in a foreign port can be a major problem . i read that airlines will no longer give free flights to passengers from other bankrupt airlines , even when they are stuck overseas . this just happened this fall when the irish airline ZOOM went belly-up . many canadian passengers were stuck overseas and had to pay for BOTH hotel accomodation and return flights .

wouldn't be too costly trying to get home from a U.S. or american city (so we might consider a 2-week alaska cruise) , but getting home from asia or south-america would be costly .
btw a friend told me that he asked his travel agent to arrange for insurance to cover such costs . the agent told him that no such insurance is readily available ???
hbg

1 Reply

@hamburger,

Quote:

Deep package discounts of as much as 85% signal trouble ahead for cruise line stocks.

The smooth sailing days for the leisure cruise industry may be over. Stock dividend cuts and deep fare discounts are now the norm. Smart shoppers should take advantage of this situation
The special deals on many cruise lines extend well into 2009 and 2010. They range from short, budget-oriented weekend trips to long and exotic luxury voyages. Some of the industry's hottest new ships, like the Celebrity Solstice and the Carnival Splendor, are available at bargains

http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/2008/12/03/carnival-royal-caribbean-pf-ii-in_rm_1203latam_inl.html

Ya, that is a problem....I don't know any business that can mark down 85% and still pay its bills. I would be scared to get on a ship with 1000 employees who might be worried that they will be out of a job and not paided for work done....

0 Replies

@hawkeye10,

Hey hawk--what happens if a cruise ship company goes tits up when ci. is out on the waves? He is either going to be the recipient of Christian charity or become an asset of the administrators who would sell him to a bunch of cannibals for 200 tons of coconuts and smirk.

We will have to hope that the administrator's CEO didn't get Darwin rammed down his throat at school.

0 Replies

The way cruise lines are falling apart with not enough customers for all those new miga-ships built during the past several years, my 26-day cruise this month may be my "last" for quite a while. Demand will surely suffer big time as the world economy tanks to a feared depression level crisis.

Even the popular travel companies I've used often in the past are giving big-time discounts on most of their trips as never seen before. It's downright scary to see so many travel industry big names looking more desperate by the day...

1 Reply

In other news today:
* Oil surged in price by some 10%. Oil producers are making noises about cutting exports. The big factor, though, was a pretty dramatic decline in the value of the dollar.
* That decline in the dollar will make our exports cheaper, but we don't export much anymore. Imports will become more expensive.
* The auto deal appears dead. If the Repubs don't waver, which appears likely, GM and C are in big trouble.

And finally, KB Toys, with some 430 stores and a few thousand employees, went into Chapter 11 today after 80+ years in business. They have become a minor player in the industry, accounting for just 2% of toy sales.
They said things were okay through September but sales tanked by some 20% in Oct and Nov despite deep discounting.
I mentioned before that my little chain of retail stores wasn't doing badly until November. November was bad.
December, so far, is looking okay. But my managers tell me that a lot of the sales are coming from our "kid's section." Kid's will still have Christmas while the adults may not see much under the tree. Tree? What tree?

2 Replies

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

my 26-day cruise this month may be my "last" for quite a while

Are you scared ci? Has your bottle gone?

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

rjb, I wouldn't worry too much about the 10% spike in oil prices. The demand has dropped significantly, and unless they wish not to sell any oil for many years to come, they'll have to accept the simple fact that there are others who will sell their oil at reduced prices.

The decline in the US dollar has been on-going long before this economic crisis came to a head just a couple of months ago. That our products and services will remain competitive in the world marketplace is very important even today and tomorrow. I wouldn't worry too much about the decline; inflation is a greater worry when our government continues to print money like there's no tomorrow. Monopoly money comes to mind.

The auto deal "should be dead." It only delays what is inevitable for the three companies who refused to acknowledge some simple truths about auto competition in the world marketplace. Their management failed, and they should be allowed to go belly-up like any company with poor management.
That's what capitalism is all about; not about the government taking over commercial enterprise. That's called socialism.

If my memory serves, I think there were some news reports some months ago that WalMart sold more toys than any other toy or retail stores.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

in canada there is a lot of "head scratching" too .
the federal government might consider another drop in the federal sales tax . it was dropped from 7% to 5% recently . there are suggestions to drop it further to spur demand .
but the fed's also announced that the interest/dividend on the first $5,000 per year in a "special" savings account would be tax exempt - to encourage savings .
so what are we to do : spend to crank up sales or save for a "rainy" day - right now it's "pouring" .
hbg (scratching head : to spend or not to spend , that is the question)

1 Reply

@hamburger,

While Canada considers another drop in your sales tax, those of us living in Santa Clara County in California must consider an increase in our sales tax from 8.25% to 8.75%. All this while unemployment continues to increase, and our state government can't agree on cutting the budget by some $11 billion dollars to prevent the state from going bankrupt.

2 Replies

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

While Canada considers another drop in your sales tax, those of us living in Santa Clara County in California must consider an increase in our sales tax from 8.25% to 8.75%. All this while unemployment continues to increase, and our state government can't agree on cutting the budget by some $11 billion dollars to prevent the state from going bankrupt

I believe that is $11 billion, and climbing quickly. Here in Washington State the Government is constantly revising estimates in the negative, and telling state agencies to go back and rework their budgets.

0 Replies

@cicerone imposter,

c.i. wrote :

Quote:

living in Santa Clara County

i misread it as "living in Santa Claus Country" .
time for me to shut shop <GRIN>
hbg

1 Reply

@hamburger,

In some respects, we do live in "Santa Clause" country, because our area enjoys some of the highest household income in the US. Smile

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Get ready for the great fall in the market tomorrow based on the failure of congress to approve the bailout for the "big" three. That's good, because we need to let the capitalistic system run its course rather than letting government take over commerce with funny money.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

more importantly, this practice of privatizing profits and socializing losses has got to stop. It is bad for the nation, it is bad for the society, and it is bad for capitalism.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

I totally agree. Congress finally did the right thing - for a change - by denying bankrupt companies from being saved with taxpayer money. Not only that, but the union didn't want to give up their pay at current rates. They want taxpayers to foot the whole bill - even if they do finally go bankrupt with no benefit for taxpayers.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

I tried to tell you it was alot the unions fault, ci. You probably have me on ignore, but I am glad you are seeing the light a little bit.

0 Replies

the markets should crash tommorow, but more because of this:

Quote:

Regulators have not yet verified the scale of the fraud. But the criminal complaint filed against Mr. Madoff on Thursday in federal court in Manhattan reports that he estimated the losses at $50 billion. “We are alleging a massive fraud " both in terms of scope and duration,” said Linda Chatman Thomsen, director of the enforcement division at the Securities and Exchange Commission. “We are moving quickly and decisively to stop the fraud and protect remaining assets for investors.”

Andrew M. Calamari, an associate director for enforcement in the S.E.C.’s regional office in New York, said the case involved “a stunning fraud that appears to be of epic proportions.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/business/12scheme.html?pagewanted=1&hp

as with all deep recessions and depressions, what we have is a lack of confidence in the system. That one of the major players on the street was running a ponzi scheme will shake the foundations of free market capitalism I think.

dec 12 2008...the new black friday??

Asian markets down about 5% at the moment...

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

A ponzi scheme that involved billions of dollars, and they lived high on the hog "gambling" with other people's money who were foolish enough to think any one can out perform the total market all those years. Greed will get em all the time. All those guys with MBAs don't look so smart any more. They played with big money games, and everybody lost.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Retail sales drops and more layoffs will be in the business news tomorrow - on top of what I've posted above.

I'm predicting the DOW to hit below 8,000 tomorrow.

0 Replies

Where is the US economy headed?

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know