@hawkeye10,
Most humans do not understand that emotion makes up the greater part of our decision making - about 80%, while true analysis only about 20%. That's the reason why we have seen so many jump off the equity ship, because fear took over their analytical side. Most humans make the wrong decisions when it comes to money matters. They buy when the market is high, and sell when the market is low. That's what's happening now.
Businesses fear an Obama presidency, to the tune of about 3/4 of the management, and considering that 85% of the jobs in this country is provided by private businesses, that doesn't show much confidence in Obama's socialistic views. After all, how will Obama stimulate the economy, with more government jobs? Not likely, and if he tries, what happens to productivity? Not a pretty picture.
Mel Martinez of Florida compares Obama's vision as something tried in communist cuba. Right on, Mel, you are figuring out what Obama is about.
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/video08.html?maven_referralObject=3156963&maven_referralPlaylistId=&sRevUrl=http://www.foxnews.com/
@okie,
Anybody speculating on the effect of an Obama vs a McCain victory on the stock market? It seems to me that an Obama victory would send a chill into lots of stocks, perhaps the entire market? How does one know whether he will rob the profits or penalize perfectly legitimate businesses? More government intervention into the market creates alot more uncertainties, uncertaintees that can cause big losses, or I suppose big gains for those fat cat insiders in government? And why even invest if the government is going to confiscate our 401k's?
@okie,
The market has already accepted an Obama victory. To even speculate that his winning would do anything is to not know anything about the market.
@okie,
Business leaders are not stupid. They know very well that there needs to be regulation. Look at what happened when the market was deregulated.
I think business also knows that our healthcare system is a mess, and is detrimental to business. Business leaders, for the most part, know we need to go to a universal system.
@Advocate,
Business knows its own self interest.
@roger,
Quote:Business knows its own self interest.
which is to have a wealthy and stable society in which to operate
@hawkeye10,
Highwaymen would agree with that.
@parados,
parados wrote:
The market has already accepted an Obama victory. To even speculate that his winning would do anything is to not know anything about the market.
Is that when it has crashed the last few weeks?
@hawkeye10,
"What's good for General Motors is good for America"?
I see the market responded to the Obama victory today in audacious fashion, losing almost 500 points, or about 5% of its value in one single day, the biggest drop the next day after an election in the history of the United States. Now, Obama supporters will attribute it to something else, but it seems that the election was the biggest news of the day, and has to be considered a prime reason for the mood on Wall Street.
As for me, I would consider investing in energy, but my big hangup is why, what if Obama raids all the companies of profits, or shuts down their ability to prosper? Not just the energy industry, but other industries as well, it has to be a big question mark when government looms with possible intrusions, unpredictable manipulations of some business sectors, and controls in the future. I do not see an Obama presidency as an encouragement to investors. With one exception, some rich Democrats may become enthusiastic based upon their emotion, but even they are not in the long run going to be stupid solely because of their politics.
So maybe it will go up 500 points tomorrow, who knows, but it was obvious today at least that an Obama presidency was not welcomed with a burst of optimism on Wall Street.
@okie,
todays drop had nothing to do with Obama, it was about the new numbers on the economy being horrid. Also, the fix applied by bush has not worked, and the consensus is now that the $130 billion thrown at AIG will not be enough to save it and that trying to save it was a mistake. Expensive mistakes such as that call into question the current leaderships ability to steer this sinking ship.
@hawkeye10,
Okay fine, if you say so, but I think that if McCain had won, and it dropped 500 points today, certain of the media would have spun it differently. And even with the negatives, that I heard about already before you mentioned them, if an Obama presidency was all that hopeful, there would have been some effect. The election after all is one of the biggest news stories all year long.
@okie,
okie wrote:
Anybody speculating on the effect of an Obama vs a McCain victory on the stock market? It seems to me that an Obama victory would send a chill into lots of stocks, perhaps the entire market? How does one know whether he will rob the profits or penalize perfectly legitimate businesses? More government intervention into the market creates alot more uncertainties, uncertaintees that can cause big losses, or I suppose big gains for those fat cat insiders in government? And why even invest if the government is going to confiscate our 401k's?
Uncertainty is murder on Wall Street, and now into the second day, we are down over 700 points since yesterday morning, as of now.
Unbelievable, before the guy even is close to taking office, I can see businesses and investors are wildly optimistic. Yes, hope, that says it all.
Not here to pour cold water on people's personal catharsis over voting for Obama, to cleanse themselves or whatever it may be, reality now will take over. Reality is a stubborn thing.
@okie,
okie wrote:
okie wrote:
Anybody speculating on the effect of an Obama vs a McCain victory on the stock market? It seems to me that an Obama victory would send a chill into lots of stocks, perhaps the entire market? How does one know whether he will rob the profits or penalize perfectly legitimate businesses? More government intervention into the market creates alot more uncertainties, uncertaintees that can cause big losses, or I suppose big gains for those fat cat insiders in government? And why even invest if the government is going to confiscate our 401k's?
Uncertainty is murder on Wall Street, and now into the second day, we are down over 700 points since yesterday morning, as of now.
Unbelievable, before the guy even is close to taking office, I can see businesses and investors are wildly optimistic. Yes, hope, that says it all.
Not here to pour cold water on people's personal catharsis over voting for Obama, to cleanse themselves or whatever it may be, reality now will take over. Reality is a stubborn thing.
Okie, why do you persist in this? You know the Dow is not a measurement of how much people like Obama. This childish **** has got to get boring after a while.
Cycloptichorn
@Cycloptichorn,
You're quite right, Cyclo. Still, I used to hear that the market dived every time Bush made a speach. Tell me it wasn't fun for you.
@roger,
roger wrote:
You're quite right, Cyclo. Still, I used to hear that the market dived every time Bush made a speach. Tell me it wasn't fun for you.
I don't think that was true, actually; the markets often applauded Bush's speeches, back in the day.
Cycloptichorn
@Cycloptichorn,
Sure, sure, cyclops, you are so believable. Well, now down about 10% in two days. Great start for your guy. By the way, do you have a 401K that you can't wait to fork over to them?
I loved PBS spin, it is all about profits, yeah sure. The biggest loss in American history for the first two days after an election, and its just about quarterly profit? Sure, I believe them.
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
Most humans do not understand that emotion makes up the greater part of our decision making - about 80%, while true analysis only about 20%. That's the reason why we have seen so many jump off the equity ship, because fear took over their analytical side. Most humans make the wrong decisions when it comes to money matters. They buy when the market is high, and sell when the market is low. That's what's happening now.
So the emotion following the election does not seem to be too great, not so far at least, does it?
I keep waiting for all the rich Democrats to jump back into the market with both feet, but so far their money is not following the hype.
Down the shitter, and if you think that Obama can interrupt the cycle, please join me at my seminar on Florida swamp real estate.
It's all timing.
Obama will not be blamed for the economy he inherits (and rightly so), but if the turn-around cycle takes place in the next 4 years (as it probably wil), he will get the credit.
Fair enough. Presidents get unfairly blamed for economic downturns, and therefore they should get unfairly credited for economic upturns.
The probem is that if Obama follows his leftist economic leanings, the Economy wil suffer; not improve.
Just take a look at how really bad the economy was under Carter.
Carter's Economy makes this one look like Happy Days Are Here Again.
Perhaps someone in this forum is prepared to defend the Carter presidency.
If so I welcome you! Have at it.
The greater the extent of governmental bailout the greater the ultimate problem.
Now the auto industry is looking for a bailout.
The global economy is founded on GM results?
Nope.
If GM can't compete with Toyota, let them fail.
Obama won't, because the Unions may want to hobble GM, but they sure don't want to see it die.
And before you ask it... let AIG fail, let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fail, let Bear Stearns fail...let them all fail.
Initially, I supported the bailout but now I realize it was an erroneous opinion.
The economy will revive itself, and quicker without intervention by a central government.
Wealth exists and until the End of Days it always will.
It may have shrunk in an economic debacle but it would not have been lost.
It wasn't lost during the Great Depression.
Hopefully Obama won't (a la Carter) retard the natural economic cycle, but chances are pretty good that four years from now things will have turned around.
If so, the 2012 elections will be based on issues other than the Economy. If not, Obama will lose in a landslide.
