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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
OGIONIK
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 01:59 pm
YOUR telling me.

i had 10 bucks and i thought i would do some laundry.

and buy some food.

i did 2 loads and i was like wow my moneys gone.


good ******* game.
0 Replies
 
OGIONIK
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 02:01 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
What a nation of whiners!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/5965849/for/cnbc/

Quote:
Soaring costs for gasoline and food pushed inflation at the wholesale level up by a larger-than-expected amount in June, leaving inflation rising over the past year at the fastest pace in more than a quarter-century.

The Labor Department reported that wholesale prices jumped by 1.8 percent last month, the biggest one-month rise since last November. Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices are up 9.2 percent, the largest year-over-year surge since June 1981, another period when soaring energy costs were giving the country inflation pains.


10% in a year.

Cycloptichorn


According to our government, we're still not in a "recession."



funny aint it.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 03:46 pm
Hmmm, which way will we go?

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/14/inflation_recession_alligator.jpg

Cycloptichorn
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 03:53 pm
Cyclo, That cartoon explains our governments indecision very well; they just don't know what they are doing. It's not about inflation; we are already experiencing inflation based on our wages not keeping up with "inflation" plus the fact the fuel and foods costs are increasing at double-digit rates. It doesn't require much analysis to know that many families are losing their jobs and homes, and many have lost money from their bank accounts (Indymac is only the beginning).

While they try to figure out what to do, we'll have more runs on the banks while the stock market continues to tank. Most middle class and poor have been feeling the pinch for a couple of years now, and the government is now responding to a crisis of monumental proportions. They all deserve an "F."
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 03:54 pm
They are so hung up on the war in Iraq that they fail to see the security problems right here at home.
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mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 06:03 pm
This is interesting...

Bush lifts offshore drilling restrictions, and oil prices immediately drop.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTM1YmU4NWZkYjBhOTk3MjJmM2YzYmM5ZWU3M2UxYTY=
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 06:05 pm
mysteryman wrote:
This is interesting...

Bush lifts offshore drilling restrictions, and oil prices immediately drop.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTM1YmU4NWZkYjBhOTk3MjJmM2YzYmM5ZWU3M2UxYTY=


Actually, Bush ended the ban yesterday, and the price didn't go down at all.

Today, the price drops were more likely due to:

Crude futures were recently down $8.14 at $137.04 a barrel in New York, weighed down by several factors. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries gave a downbeat outlook for world oil demand in coming months. Traders also said it appears that some funds are unloading positions, either to book profits from oil's hefty long-term rally or to raise money to cover soured bets on credit securities that can't be unloaded.

per the Wsj.

Larry Kudlow is a political pundit, not a respectable economist.

Cycloptichorn
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 07:10 pm
Also, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that demand will drop when gas hits over $5/gallon. Most families can't afford current prices.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 08:36 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Also, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that demand will drop when gas hits over $5/gallon. Most families can't afford current prices.

I agree. I think there is a bit of a bubble in the price, and it will drop. Part of the price is emotional, or speculation, obviously, so if we not only announce our intent to drill offshore more, but also ANWR, I think it willl also have an impact fairly immediately. There is a short term impact, based on futures and anticipated supply, and a longer term impact, based on actual production. One thing sure, it will actually mean about 100 times more than any Democratic solution, such as pumping more oil out of the strategic reserves, or maybe throwing money into some goverment research boondoggle, or investigating the oil companies, or taxing windfall profits, etc. etc., all of which are sad commentaries on their knowledge of the energy business.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 08:58 pm
Off to bed for me. But, Okie, I gently ask and hope you can gently answer a question.
The oil companies already have the rights to drill in what I would regard as a huge area. They have had the rights to do that for years. Why haven't they developed those fields? Why do they want access to more fields when they haven't developed the ones that they already have? Thank you. -rjb-
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Jul, 2008 09:39 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
Off to bed for me. But, Okie, I gently ask and hope you can gently answer a question.
The oil companies already have the rights to drill in what I would regard as a huge area. They have had the rights to do that for years. Why haven't they developed those fields? Why do they want access to more fields when they haven't developed the ones that they already have? Thank you. -rjb-

Are you talking in generalities or about one specific area that you are aware of?

I am going to answer with the assumption that you are speaking in general, I think repeating the Democratic talking point, that large areas of existing leases have not been developed.

The answer is that not all areas have equal potential, and all parts of existing leases are not considered equal potential. Oil is not ubiquitous throughout the earth's crust, it occurs as pools or traps, both structural and stratigraphic. Further, leases are generally granted or procured as a land position by an oil exploration firm in an area, wherein they may not have good enough information to yet pinpoint the best drilling targets, that have the most potential for oil and gas, so they lease more land than they can practically expect will be underlain with oil or gas. But a good land position is necessary in order to have room to develop a prospect. Lease costs may be well spent if compared to the cost of drilling, so a good land position is considered wise from the get go. Of course each area has its own characteristics. If alot of drilling has already been done, perhaps a lease here or there is appropriate if the existing information indicates that to be the case.

Further, once leases are procured, they may do more seismic work, etc., to help pinpoint the best targets, which takes more time. And now, permits through various goverment agencies can forestall activity for months, etc. Then once drilling begins, it will provide further information on the geology and potential, yet more specific in area. If a field is found, it will be limited in extent, and will further provide information on the potential for the rest of the lease. The company may then deem the rest of the lease very high potential, of lesser or marginal potential, or virtually no potential at all. The end result of this whole process is that you end up with large portions of leases that are relatively undrilled or not drilled at all because the company does not rate their chances worth the investment of drilling.

Drilling wells is not cheap, generally it is a minimum of hundreds of thousands of dollars per well, and it may be millions for deeper or offshore wells. Simply punching holes everywhere because they have not been drilled is a very poor way to run an oil company, and if you do, you will go broke very quickly.

Companies may hold leases a period of time, without drilling, for any one of several reasons. It could be budget constraints, a matter of priority, they have better places to spend the budget, maybe they wait for a competitor to drill nearby to see what their results may seem to indicate, or they may wish to procure more geophysical information before drilling, which takes time, so there could be lots of reasons that are various and probably unique to each area. Maybe they think a lease is worth keeping, but not worth drilling right away, maybe they have bigger fish to fry.

I hope this explains it a little.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 03:40 pm
Thank you for your long explanation. It will take me awhile to find time to digest it and respond. -rjb
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 03:47 pm
Okie's response was generally correct, though a more cynical person might add that it is in the oil company's interests to keep every single acre of land or water that they can, while trying to acquire more at the same time, b/c they are trying to grab as big a slice of the resource pie as possible before the public wises up.

They can easily claim 'there's not much oil on those leases!;' but how would we know if it was true or not? It's in their interests to keep at least some in the bank for the future...

Cycloptichorn
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 04:03 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Okie's response was generally correct, though a more cynical person might add that it is in the oil company's interests to keep every single acre of land or water that they can, while trying to acquire more at the same time, b/c they are trying to grab as big a slice of the resource pie as possible before the public wises up.

They can easily claim 'there's not much oil on those leases!;' but how would we know if it was true or not? It's in their interests to keep at least some in the bank for the future...

Cycloptichorn

Wow! What a pathetic post. How do we know farmers are just holding land so that they can, so that other people can't own it and raise crops? How do we know that car companies aren't intentionally not building cars? How do we know that a plumbing company intentionally does no work? How do we know lawyers don't simply take one case per year so that they can charge one client all they need to live comfortably for a year?

I think the above post by cyclops illustrates pretty well what it must feel like to be a liberal.

One other thought, why do people keep anything, if they don't use it that day? Why not throw away all your cooking utensils and buy more when you may need them tomorrow. I hate to be sarcastic, but seriously, the total ignorance of how businesses work is totally and utterly astonishing.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 04:10 pm
okie wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Okie's response was generally correct, though a more cynical person might add that it is in the oil company's interests to keep every single acre of land or water that they can, while trying to acquire more at the same time, b/c they are trying to grab as big a slice of the resource pie as possible before the public wises up.

They can easily claim 'there's not much oil on those leases!;' but how would we know if it was true or not? It's in their interests to keep at least some in the bank for the future...

Cycloptichorn

Wow! What a pathetic post. How do we know farmers are just holding land so that they can, so that other people can't own it and raise crops? How do we know that car companies aren't intentionally not building cars? How do we know that a plumbing company intentionally does no work? How do we know lawyers don't simply take one case per year so that they can charge one client all they need to live comfortably for a year?

I think the above post by cyclops illustrates pretty well what it must feel like to be a liberal.

One other thought, why do people keep anything, if they don't use it that day? Why not throw away all your cooking utensils and buy more when you may need them tomorrow. I hate to be sarcastic, but seriously, the total ignorance of how businesses work is totally and utterly astonishing.


Control your breathing, Okie, this breathless hyperventilating is neither becoming nor convincing.

I'm not ignorant as to the practices of business at all; did you miss the part where I said your post was 'generally correct?' I merely pointed out that there is very little downside to the oil companies not exploiting their leases to the fullest at this time, given the nature of oil and the emerging global demand. It's in their interests to present the case to the public that allows them to own the greatest amount of potential oil-bearing land possible. And what I described, is that case.

We can look at a field and tell if it is being farmed or not. It's pretty difficult to look at a patch of sea floor and tell if there is significant amounts of oil under it, or not. Ya kinda got to take the oil companies word for it; and that's not a verifiable situation.

As for this

Quote:
How do we know that a plumbing company intentionally does no work? How do we know lawyers don't simply take one case per year so that they can charge one client all they need to live comfortably for a year?


Do you actually know any plumbers or lawyers? For I think you just described much of their respective professions to a T Laughing

Cycloptichorn
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 04:23 pm
How is it you are so suspicious of people in business? Granted, humans do not always have the purest of intents, but that is precisely why competition is so desireable, it tends to filter out as much of that as is practical, as compared to government, which has no incentive to not be self serving, after all it has a monopoly. The one thing that tends to clean up business is the fact that somebody else more honest will come along and put them out of business.

Back to oil companies, it costs money to hold leases, so it is generally not in the best interest of companies to waste dollars on leases that have no potential, or waste time developing something so that a costly lease can pay for itself. Any company that has as its primary goal to sit on leases will go out of business.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 04:25 pm
If the land had no potential for oil, why did those oil companies buy into those leases? DUH!
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 04:29 pm
Sheesh, ci, please spare yourself of showing ignorance on this?
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 04:30 pm
okie wrote:
How is it you are so suspicious of people in business? Granted, humans do not always have the purest of intents, but that is precisely why competition is so desireable, it tends to filter out as much of that as is practical, as compared to government, which has no incentive to not be self serving, after all it has a monopoly. The one thing that tends to clean up business is the fact that somebody else more honest will come along and put them out of business.

Back to oil companies, it costs money to hold leases, so it is generally not in the best interest of companies to waste dollars on leases that have no potential, or waste time developing something so that a costly lease can pay for itself. Any company that has as its primary goal to sit on leases will go out of business.


I think that in many cases, the profit motive overwhelms the purity of people's intentions. Therefore I don't trust big business at all, ever; and why should we? They have proven time and time again that the profit is what matters at the end of the day, and all other ethical or moral concerns are strictly secondary. I understand but do not agree.

As for holding the leases, if there is oil in the ground, they lease isn't exactly worthless, is it? My point is that we really have no way of knowing if the current leases held by the oil companies have significant oil under them or not; and it's a long-term benefit for the companies to keep as much land as possible, it isn't as if they are hurting for cash, and in the future the price of oil is likely to be much higher then now...

Cycloptichorn
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jul, 2008 04:34 pm
You are hopelessly lost in your own ignorance on this subject, cyclops. If you really want to know, go talk to a few people that are currently working for oil companies. Even better, go to school and get a degree, then work in the business. Otherwise, I would suggest you leave the oil business to experts, instead of trying to figure it out, because you won't, given the attitude that you have.

It is precisely why leftists would screw up an industry so bad in a matter of months if given the opportunity to nationalize oil companies, which I heard one clueless congress person propose.
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