Where is the US economy headed?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/washington/29housing.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

And some where else I read that home values have at least another 10% down to go if most of the experts called it right. Ouch, that is a lot of people reversed, this is going to suck.

According to some media reports, the US lost 62,000 jobs in June, but the unemployment rate remained the same. That's what I call creative math.

The feds continue to shy away from calling the present downturn in our economy a recession - while millions lose their jobs and homes.

Bush has all of them tongue-tied - or something. Can't be having job losses for the past six months with all the bad economic news and not have a recession.

Well, it wasn't really enough jobs lost to shift the unemployment figures; 62k isn't that big a percentage of 180 million or so.

Cycloptichorn

Cyclo, Where'd you get 180 million? Seems awfully high to me!

I did a Google search using "Job gains losses by sector 2008 U.S." and came up with a Bureau of Labor Statistics report dated today.
It is a little difficult to wade through because sometimes they talk about non-farm employment and sometimes about civilian employment (excluding government). It looks to me that Cyclo's number is close. A number I see there is 155 million, but I might be missing something.

Unemployment rates are complicated by the creative definition for "unemployed. A person who has not looked for work for 4 weeks (eg given up or is sick or carrying for someone) is not considered unemployed.

Having reconsidered, I can now understand that 62,000 is but a small number compared to 155,000,000. I've just gotten skeptical about numbers produced by our government.

The economy is relatively stable at this moment, but a big Hurricane hitting the US would definitely shake things up.

Further down the road ... Our economy will suffer big time if Obama is elected and if he raises taxes as planned.

Without the creative thinking used by the government in establishing the criteria for unemployment. The true unemployment in the US now stands at 9.9%

Even that number "seems" low to me, but thanks for sharing it, au.

Here's a good sense of what's happening in America.


Americans' unhappy birthday: 'Too much wrong right now'

By PAULINE ARRILLAGA, AP National Writer 1 hour, 33 minutes ago

Even folks in the Optimist Club are having a tough time toeing an upbeat line these days.

Eighteen members of the volunteer organization's Gilbert, Ariz., chapter have gathered, a few days before this nation's 232nd birthday, to focus on the positive: Their book drive for schoolchildren and an Independence Day project to place American flags along the streets of one neighborhood.

They beam through the Pledge of Allegiance, applaud each other's good news ?- a house that recently sold despite Arizona's down market, and one member's valiant battle with cancer. "I didn't die," she says as the others cheer.

But then talk turns to the state of the Union, and the Optimists become decidedly bleak.

They use words such as "terrified," "disgusted" and "scary" to describe what one calls "this mess" we Americans find ourselves in. Then comes the list of problems constituting the mess: a protracted war, $4-a-gallon gas, soaring food prices, uncertainty about jobs, an erratic stock market, a tougher housing market, and so on and so forth.

One member's son is serving his second tour in Iraq. Another speaks of a daughter who's lost her job in the mortgage industry and a son in construction whose salary was slashed. Still another mentions a friend who can barely afford gas.

Joanne Kontak, 60, an elementary school lunch aide inducted just this day as an Optimist, sums things up like this: "There's just entirely too much wrong right now."

Happy birthday, America? This year, we're not so sure.

The nation's psyche is battered and bruised, the sense of pessimism palpable. Young or old, Republican or Democrat, economically stable or struggling, Americans are questioning where they are and where they are going. And they wonder who or what might ride to their rescue.

These are more than mere gripes, but rather an expression of fears ?- concerns reflected not only in the many recent polls that show consumer confidence plummeting, personal happiness waning and more folks worrying that the country is headed in the wrong direction, but also in conversations happening all across the land.

"There are so many things you have to do to survive now," says Larue Lawson of Forest Park, Ill. "It used to be just clothes on your back, food on the table and a roof over your head. Now, it's everything.

"I wish it was just simpler."

Lawson, mind you, is all of 16 years old.

Then there's this from Sherry White in Orlando, Fla., who has a half-century in years and experience on the teenager:

"There is a sense of helplessness everywhere you look. It's like you're stuck in one spot, and you can't do anything about it."

In 1931, when the historian James Truslow Adams coined the phrase "The American Dream," he wrote of "a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement."

In 2008, using history as a yardstick, life actually is better and richer and fuller, with more opportunities than ever before.

"Objectively things are going real well," says author Gregg Easterbrook, who discusses the disconnect in his book "The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse."

He ticks off supporting statistics: A relatively low unemployment rate, 5.5 percent in June. (Employers did, indeed, cut payrolls last month by 62,000 jobs, but consider the 10.1 rate of June 1983 or the 7.8 rate of June 1992.) Declining rates of violent crimes, property crimes and big-city murders. Declining rates of disease. Higher standards of living for the middle class and the working poor. And incomes that, for many, are rising above the rate of inflation.

So why has the pursuit of happiness ?- a fundamental right, the Declaration of Independence assures us ?- become such a challenging undertaking?

Some of the gloom and doom may simply reflect a society that demands more and expects to have it yesterday, but in many cases there's nothing imaginary about the problems.

Just listen to farmer Ricardo Vallot, who is clinging tight to his livelihood.

Vallot expects to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on diesel fuel to plant and harvest his family's sugar cane crop in Vermilion Parish, La. His two combines burn up to 150 gallons a day, and with diesel running an average of $4.68 a gallon in the region, he sees his profits burning away, too.

"My God, it's horrible, it really is," the 33-year-old says, adding: "If diesel goes north of five, it will be really difficult at the price we're getting to stay in farming."

Stay-at-home-mom Heather Hammack grapples with tough decisions daily about how to spend her family's dwindling income in the face of rising food costs. One day, she priced strawberries at $1.75. The next day, they were $2.28.

"I could cry," she responds when asked how things are.

"We used to have more money than we knew what to do with. Now, I have to decide: Do I pay the electric this week? Do I pay for gas? Do I get groceries?" says Hammack, 24, who lives with her boyfriend, a window installer, and their 5-year-old son in a rented home in rural Rowlesburg, W.Va. "You can't get ahead. You can't save money. You can't buy a house. It just stinks."

Those "right direction, wrong direction" polls ?- the latest of which, in June, had only 14 to 17 percent of Americans saying the country is going the right way ?- show a general level of pessimism that is the worst in almost 30 years. Those feelings, coupled with government corruption scandals, lingering doubts over whether the Iraq war was justified, even memories of the chaotic response to Hurricane Katrina, have culminated in an erosion of our customary faith that elected leaders can get us out of a jam.

Says Arizona retiree Dian Kinsman: "You have no faith in anybody at the top. I don't trust anybody, and I'm really disgusted about it."

Stoking the furor is that Americans seem to feel helpless. After all, how can the average Joe or Jane control the price of gas or end the war?

"How am I, a little old West Virginia girl, going to go out and change the world?" asks Hammack.

Still, others suggest a lack of perspective and a sense of entitlement among Americans today may make these times feel worse than they are.

At 82, Ruth Townsend has experienced her share of downturns ?- in her own life and that of the country. She suffered a stroke years ago that left her in a wheelchair, and lives now in an assisted-living center in Orlando, Fla. Townsend recalls World War II and having to ration almost everything: sugar, leather shoes, tires, gas.

"You made do with the little you had because you had to. You shopped in the same stores over and over because you HAD to. We had coupon books and stamps to figure out what we could have," Townsend says. Americans have gotten so used to "things," she says, "that we can't take it when we hit a bad patch."

Allison Alvin condemns an "out of style" values system, in which even kids have cell phones, credit card debt is out of control and families purchase four-bedroom homes they can't afford instead of the two-bedroom ones they could.

"I'm mad at us ... all of my fellow Americans. Maybe a little hardship would be good for us," says Alvin, who at 36 has a job as a freight exporter in Cincinnati, a husband with a factory job, two healthy children, her own home and four cars, all paid off.

At the same time, she acknowledges feeling that "things are getting worse."

"When you're my age, you feel like you should be improving ?- more financially stable, instead of hand-to-mouth. It doesn't matter that we're better off than (others). It still hurts. It's still painful."

Easterbrook ascribes some of this to the media, noting that talk of "crisis" has become almost trendy ?- especially in an election year when politicians and pundits alike seem to feed on discontent as a catalyst for change, or ratings.

Round-the-clock saturation, shouting commentators and ceaseless images of "whatever's burning or exploding," he says, "give you the impression that the whole world is falling apart." Media reports noting that the world isn't rallying around U.S. policies also build frustration.

Perhaps that's why one of the Arizona Optimists, Marilyn Pell, couldn't help but raise her voice when referencing something she'd heard on the news: That gas prices might rise to $7 a gallon by 2010.

"What do you mean I've gotta pay $7 a gallon?" she exclaimed, even though it was just a prediction.

Such anxieties have concrete implications ?- affecting how we spend, how we vote and whether we are willing to take risks. These collective "bad moods" matter because they help steer the country's direction just as the country's direction shapes our mood. Franklin D. Roosevelt expressed this when he said in the depths of the Depression: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

Perspective also varies between the haves and have-nots.

In California's Silicon Valley, one of the wealthiest places, the nation's housing crash can be seen as a healthy correction and a buying opportunity, and high gas prices are unpleasant, yes, but not unbearable.

Maybe it's no surprise that at Ferrari Maserati of Silicon Valley, where $200,000 models are still being snapped up, sales manager Larry Raphael says, "We really haven't been affected by what the media says is a low mood in the country."

Yet in these rarefied ZIP codes, others are affected ?- even if they feel personally secure. "I worry about my gardeners and how they're dealing with the cost of fuel, for example. Floods, fires, there are so many things going on that are going to cost everyone money," says Suzanne Legallet of Atherton, Calif.

Another reason I posted the above article is that our ZIP code has shown an increase in sales by 18%, the only one in Santa Clara County for the last reporting period (last May vs this May). Many are showing sales decreases as much as 65%. The overall bad news is that our county had 213% increase in defaults, 542% increase in forclosure sales, and 546% increase in sales value.

Not nearly enough help for homeowners facing higher interest rates in the coming year.


Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House
Posted 36m ago

WASHINGTON (AP) ?- Home foreclosures will keep rising next year no matter who is elected president in November.

Even the optimism that surrounds a new president taking office can't resurrect home values overnight, and presidents have no direct ability to reduce rising mortgage rates. Nevertheless, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain both promise help for homeowners facing foreclosure.

Obama calls for a broader role for government than McCain, but both candidates envision the Federal Housing Administration providing new, cheaper mortgages to distressed homeowners who otherwise would have difficulty refinancing into more secure government-insured loans with lower monthly payments.

For the plans to work, lenders would have to be willing to take a substantial loss by reducing the amount owed on the loan. But some would have a powerful incentive to do so because a refinancing deal could allow them to recover far more money than they would get from the costly process of foreclosing on the property and trying to resell it.

Obama supports legislation along these lines by Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., which would help around 400,000 strapped homeowners. People wouldn't have to have good credit to qualify as long as they could show they are able to afford the new payments.

CI,
I'm just thankful! Nothing has gone right since Nov. 2000! I'm not in the best of health, but I'm thankful, as hell! Now, on to November, unless, we get an October surprise! :wink:

In politics, almost anything is possible. I think most Americans are disgusted with the current administration and their handling of our economy - even republicans (they're not all wealthy like some on a2k who continued to tell us our economy is just fine), and many will be voting for Obama.

not in the short term. The American political system has been corrupted by the corporate class, nothing major gets fixed until the people take back the political process. You can't look at Obama now and not realize how the system has made him conform to the norms of the system. To expect that Obama as president could change much of anything is naive.

The economy has been sunk by the gross mismanagement and greed of the corporate class, and it will not be fixed until the political system is rid of the corporate class corruption and reformers are allowed to alter the economic landscape. We need changes on the scale that FDR imposed, though not necessarily the same ones. We will not be willing to do that till the recession turns into a depression. This could take up to a decade in my opinion.

hawkeye, How does government correct the corporate class corruption? They're part of the problem by accepting money from them.

Once the corporate class is no longer able to corrupt the political process with money their hold over the process will wither. Unfortunately, so long as the supremes view passing out wealth as free speech, with corporations entitled to the same free speech as individuals, we are kinda screwed.

Wealth is a societal asset, and those who hold societal assets should not be afforded the ability to use that wealth to further their desire for more wealth in a way that violates democratic society principles.

What are the "democratic society principles?"

one person one vote....you don't get to add weight to your vote or invalidate other people vote by way of the fact that you hold assets. This is the very tyranny that we rejected at the founding. The switching of the asset allowed to allot power from land ownership rights to money ownership rights matter not at all.