Where is the US economy headed?

First of all some bleak numbers from April. Exports from the U.S, in April hit $155B, which was a record. Credit goes to civilian aircraft, construction equipment and computers Imports, however, dwarfed that number, led by oil. We seem to be on a pace to run a $700B trade deficit this year.
Prices for everything are up which could lead to the need for employers to not only pass on the cost of raw materials and finished goods, but also to increase wages.
That equals inflation.
Despite the article Hamburger cites above about defending the dollar, the Bush administration has, in my mind, deliberately driven down the value of the dollar to benefit otherwise inefficient U.S. manufacturers.
What is needed now is for small but steady increases in interest rates to curb the inflation rate and lower the price of oil (denominated in dollars).
Will that cause some pain? Yes. A stronger dollar will make imports more expensive and exports less competitive, and higher interest rates will stress folks with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS).
But that is where I think we need to go. -rjb-

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rjb, The subprime mortgage problem will be long term - my guess is about four to five years before we see any sense of recovery. During that period, more families will be losing their homes, because their mortgage payments will exceed the equity, and many will just walk away. The constriction in jobs with the comcomitant stress on wages, the higher cost of fuel and food will impact our economy further into recession. The consumer spending that used to make up 75 percent of our economy will be history; survival is the new battle cry. With more stress on the family from job loss, home loss, and struggling to make ends meet, more will have health problems.

The future for the next several years looks bleak for millions in our country. Our government doesn't seem to care that we can spend 12 billion every month in Iraq, while our own citizens go into bankruptcy. There have also been reports that veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan have been committing suicide at much higher rates; about 100 every week; many with young families.

PTS is being ignored by the veteran's administration for too many soldiers returning home.

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Looks like we are all doomed. Its over.

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okie wrote :

Quote:

Looks like we are all doomed. Its over.

is that your opinion ?

what i read into the comments of other posters is that , there may well be tough times ahead for the average family - particularly younger families , and pensioners living on small pensions , i'd say .
(billionaires won't have to worry , no matter what )

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okie must've missed this sentence from my post: The future for the next several years looks bleak for millions in our country.

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So I guess it looks rosy for millions too? So what has changed since the dawn of man?

What do you want, ci, everyone be born with a silver spoon in their mouth?

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okie wrote:

So I guess it looks rosy for millions too? So what has changed since the dawn of man?

well, in the past 6,000 years or so man invented light bulbs and matches.

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okie wrote:

So I guess it looks rosy for millions too? So what has changed since the dawn of man?

What do you want, ci, everyone be born with a silver spoon in their mouth?

Where did I ever even come close to suggest that "everyone be born with a silver spoon in their mouth?"

The fact of the matter is, in the US (and many around this planet), millions still enjoy a pretty rosy living now and in the foreseeable future. Just because some enjoy a rosy life doesn't mean we don't care for those having financial and/or health problems.

Shocked

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dyslexia wrote:

okie wrote:
So I guess it looks rosy for millions too? So what has changed since the dawn of man?
well, in the past 6,000 years or so man invented light bulbs and matches.

Putting wheels on suitcases was big.

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realjohnboy wrote:

dyslexia wrote:
okie wrote:
So I guess it looks rosy for millions too? So what has changed since the dawn of man?
well, in the past 6,000 years or so man invented light bulbs and matches.

Putting wheels on suitcases was big.

You betcha; as we get older, them wheels are a survival requrement.

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Darwin used them wheels to get his digital camera around on the Galapagos Islands so he could take his pictures of apes descending into men (and women)

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realjohnboy wrote:

Putting wheels on suitcases was big.

- I have to credit that quip to Bill McDonough, former "Green Dean" of UVA's School of Architecture.

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realjohnboy wrote:

Good evening to folks on this spirted thread.
I was in the grocery store I use. A national chain but I won't mention the name for fear of being accused of shilling for them. Here is the deal that they are offering.
Buy a gift card good for use in their stores in the amount of $300, $600, $900 or $1200. They will issue the card for 10% more. So $300 becomes $330. I get a 2% rebate from my credit card company for all purchases and I get a 5% discount at the store for being an old fart.
Add it up and I get about a 16% discount on groceries.
There is no expiration date on the gift card but if you lose it you are plumb out of luck.
I don't know what the bottom line profit margins are for grocery store chains. It used to be in the couple of % range. But they have diversified into non-food items, so it is probably better. But they are getting squeezed by Walmart etc.
They need, I guess, to develop a loyal customer base who won't be looking for the lowest price on Chicken Noodle soup.

But. But, I am uncomfortable because this program is being targeted to people like me who have $300, $600, $900 or $1200 in a bank account earning 1% interest. No relief to the folks who have no savings.

Hey, call me a shill, but I found this deal at the local Smith's, which seems to be part of the Kroger system now. I'll take a 10% return on a safe investment, anyday. Any sale at that store over $100.00 gets you a .15 discount on gas, too. That's $.15, though, not 15%.

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Gift cards such as the one you describe provide a nice, risk-free loan for the company. They get to invest the monies spent on the cards in the time between you getting the card and you spending it; in the case of cards which total hundreds of dollars, it is a not inconsiderable amount in the aggregate.

Not to mention, a large percentage of cards never get fully redeemed and some not at all for various reasons. That's straight profit, yo.

All in all a winning proposition for any company; it's one of the reasons you see nearly every store offering them now, and you can often buy gift cards for certain stores at OTHER stores, adding a whole 'nother layer of financial profit possibilities...

As for the store in question, I betcha they don't lose a cent on that program whatsoever.

I sometimes wonder if the creators of 'gift cards' had any idea what they would eventually morph into.

Cycloptichorn

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Great, roger, so you saved 2 dollars and some odd cents on 15 gallons or so of gasoline!

How many bags of potato chips or 6 paks of soda or other junk food items did you waste far more on than that?

I am being a bit sarcastic, but also an honest question. I find it truly amazing how much people will spend to save a few pennies per gallon, which doesn't amount to a hill of beans, and often people spend far more by driving extra miles to fill up at a few cents less per gallon. You may not fit that category, I don't know.

Meanwhile, I don't hear people complaining about cigarette prices, or lottery ticket prices, or prices on lots of things. Last I looked, cigarettes are ..... what, about $4 a pack, and a 2 pack a day smoker spends over $200 a month on coffin nails alone. Roger, I have no idea whether you smoke, you probably don't, so I am just making some general comments here in regard to personal spending habits among the general public.

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okie, Your judgement about what other private citizens do with their life is an interesting one; do you get a bang out of it? Most humans are not perfect; you probably fit that description too! What's your point?

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http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/may-new-home-sales-512k-annual-rate.html

Extremely weak new home sales report for May, the weakest since 1990.

Cycloptichorn

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cicerone imposter wrote:

okie, Your judgement about what other private citizens do with their life is an interesting one; do you get a bang out of it? Most humans are not perfect; you probably fit that description too! What's your point?

My primary point is that people complaining about gasoline prices, and the attention they pay to a penny a gallon or 3 or 4 pennies a gallon is way over-estimated in terms of the impact on their overall budget. This is just something I've noticed throughout life. And they will complain endlessly about gas prices and about oil companies which actually provide a crucial and useful product for them, while they don't complain about companies that produce worthless junk and the prices charged for it.

I wouldn't say I get a bang out of it, but I just find it interesting as an observation of human nature. I realize humans are not perfect, and I also think I do some of the same stuff that I am talking about here. I am one of the worst to buy candy bars and junk in convenience stores, which is a total waste, and while I don't like $4.00 gasoline, I try not to complain and I try to place things into the proper perspective.

One observation about all of this, in regard to human nature, I think once products become a staple or a necessity, and as private enterprise has been so successful and efficient that people can virtually count on having it at a reasonable price, examples would be food, milk, eggs, gasoline, clothing, etc, that people acquire an attitude of entitlement, so that if the supply is ever interrupted or the price is not to their liking, they get angry, to the point of taking out their frustration and anger on the very people that have been working day and night to supply them the stuff up to that point. There does not seem to be any gratitude or credit given to the people that have provide them the stuff.

It is my opinion we should be crediting the oil companies for doing a fantastic job for all of this time, and we still can buy fuel for alot less than they do in Europe. Instead of killing the delivery man, we should be his friend and supporter.

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okie wrote:

cicerone imposter wrote:
okie, Your judgement about what other private citizens do with their life is an interesting one; do you get a bang out of it? Most humans are not perfect; you probably fit that description too! What's your point?

My primary point is that people complaining about gasoline prices, and the attention they pay to a penny a gallon or 3 or 4 pennies a gallon is way over-estimated in terms of the impact on their overall budget. This is just something I've noticed throughout life. And they will complain endlessly about gas prices and about oil companies which actually provide a crucial and useful product for them, while they don't complain about companies that produce worthless junk and the prices charged for it.

I wouldn't say I get a bang out of it, but I just find it interesting as an observation of human nature. I realize humans are not perfect, and I also think I do some of the same stuff that I am talking about here. I am one of the worst to buy candy bars and junk in convenience stores, which is a total waste, and while I don't like $4.00 gasoline, I try not to complain and I try to place things into the proper perspective.

One observation about all of this, in regard to human nature, I think once products become a staple or a necessity, and as private enterprise has been so successful and efficient that people can virtually count on having it at a reasonable price, examples would be food, milk, eggs, gasoline, clothing, etc, that people acquire an attitude of entitlement, so that if the supply is ever interrupted or the price is not to their liking, they get angry, to the point of taking out their frustration and anger on the very people that have been working day and night to supply them the stuff up to that point. There does not seem to be any gratitude or credit given to the people that have provide them the stuff.

It is my opinion we should be crediting the oil companies for doing a fantastic job for all of this time, and we still can buy fuel for alot less than they do in Europe. Instead of killing the delivery man, we should be his friend and supporter.

I suppose the Heroin addict should be friendly and supportive to his dealer as well.

Companies and people who provide products and services DO provide a benefit for society, but they do it at a marked profit. That is to say, there is no 'goodness of the heart' involved. It isn't really an issue of friendship, it's an issue of a business transaction.

I agree with you that adjusting your lifestyle to changing conditions is better then complaining; and that's why I ride a bicycle instead of driving a car. Every time I see the price at the pump going up... I zoom on by.

Cycloptichorn

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You compare heroin to gasoline? Laughing

There is a goodness of heart involved, cyclops, if the product is useful. If you have never experienced this with anyone that has sold you something or provided you a service, I would say you are a sourpuss deluxe. Profit does motivate, but profit is nothing more than a reward, which we all seek to live by. Our lives exist by trading our skills and expertise. If you are so egotistic as to think you are above all of that in life, I feel sorry for you. I happen to get a high degree of satisfaction out of my work, providing a service or product to people and the companies I have worked for, and I think alot of people do the same.

It is the people after the almighty dollar alone that will usually fail in our system. You should instead care about your work and service you provide, and take pride in it, and care about the people you work for.

Adjusting lifestyle adjusts demand, which adjusts supply, which all goes to serve the people. But don't pretend your lifestyle uses no hydrocarbons. I don't think you are than naive, at least I hope not, so I would hope you are still grateful for oil companies doing a great job.

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Where is the US economy headed?

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