114
   

Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  2  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 03:58 pm
@Builder,
Quote:
So you contribute to the "I just don't know what." by cheerleading mass consumerism, and supporting the death of the planet by reporting on it?


I am taking a temperature, not cheerleading. And keep in mind that I am trying to make this dying system work for me, I have a restaurant that I am trying to build into a regional chain.

I am Zen, I am not wed to anything. I am about being in tune with the universe and maximizing potential. As such I always keep working to understand what reality is. My tracking this years retail is part of that. Plus American retail is fascinating right now, with this shift to online over brick and mortar anf growing demand that we move retail workers out of poverty wages. Also, we are 6 years into an alleged recovery that has been extremely weak, we are becoming aware of just how broken our systems are (medical/justice/government/economy/global law and order)..... the state of mind of Americans is very jittery and fluid right now, so watching that is fascinating as well.
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 04:12 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
I am taking a temperature, not cheerleading.


Then do some actual research. You tell me I'm just parroting information. You're getting your "temperature" directly from the source of corruption.

Way to go, cowboy.

And I assume you're paying your staff fifteen an hour, plus tips?
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 04:21 pm
@Builder,
Quote:
And I assume you're paying your staff fifteen an hour, plus tips?

I pay above market rates, and I go the extra mile to take care of my people in other ways as well. It is self interest, I am in the customer service business and training to our standards costs a lot of money (plus I am fundamentally lazy and training is a huge time suck for me). All of my people have been with me at least a year, which is unheard of in this business.

Quote:
Then do some actual research.


So far my impression is that I know far more than you on this subject. If you have any more to say on it however I might change my mind. you know where to find me.
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 04:24 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
So far my impression is that I know far more than you on this subject. If you have any more to say on it however I might change my mind. you know where to find me.


Last word?

You've not a clue what is actually happening in the greater world.

It doesn't start and finish at the US borders.

Your nation's oil hegemony is propped up by endless war.

0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 04:30 pm
@hawkeye10,
Like Hawkeye, I am involved in retailing and follow that industry because of its size in our economy. It will be interesting to see how that sector performs in the holiday season.
I predicted ahead of Thanksgiving that revenues would be up 6% versus last year. This past weekend suggests that that may be too high. I still think that I may be close.
Hawkeye, as I recall, had a lower number in mind.
A 4% increase was projected by many pundits. We'll see come mid-January and we will also find out how much a bite e-commerce takes out of brick and mortar.
New car sales in November were very strong. I wonder how that will affect sales of bric-brac.
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 04:40 pm
Then you'll both be cheering this movement on, I take it?

After all, poverty-stricken workers can't contribute to a consumer society, can they?

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2014/12/02/protests-set-in-160-cities-for-15-minimum-wage/
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 04:57 pm
Third state to enact this legislation to make political donations (bribes) accountable for all. If what you've said can be taken seriously, Hawk, then you'll be right behind this movement; right?

http://www.elections.state.il.us/Downloads/CampaignDisclosure/PDF/CampDiscGuide.pdf
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 05:13 pm
@Builder,
I advocate for public only financing of elections, but this that you mention would be better than what we have. Corrupt politics does intersect with the economy, but not here, so it is not a matter for this thread.
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 05:30 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
Corrupt politics does intersect with the economy, but not here, so it is not a matter for this thread.


Of course it "intersects" with the economy. The fact that you don't want to include it in this thread says a lot about the hypocrisy of your previous claims.

Now state why you say "not here, so it's not a matter for this thread.".

We won't be changing anything nationally, or internationally, until we address the corruption endemic in the ruling class of your nation, or ours.

0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 05:48 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
A 4% increase was projected by many pundits. We'll see come mid-January and we will also find out how much a bite e-commerce takes out of brick and mortar


Subtract something like 1.8% for inflation gets us a 2.2% improvement. Yes we need to wait till mid Jan, but at this point it is already pretty clear that retailers are going to have to start closing/shrinking stores to maintain profits. This has widely been predicted, but the accelerating shift to online shopping (apparently) is going to move up the timeline. It also crushes any hopes JCP had. I also suspect given the complete disasters that are the Sears/Kmart stores this trend will accelerate their exit. On the plus side Walmart might have finally after years of mistakes done something right, they have spent most of the last year trying to fix their stores, and they are trying to do small stores. However, the negative press on not treating their employees well might make that improvement moot.

Another thing that this season is so far changing my mind about: it now appears to me the Rob Johnson was actually basically correct about what he needed to do at JCP. He did it very badly, but his goal understood where retail is going, and what retailers need to do to adjust.
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 06:13 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
On the plus side Walmart might have finally after years of mistakes done something right, they have spent most of the last year trying to fix their stores, and they are trying to do small stores. However, the negative press on not treating their employees well might make that improvement moot.


Do you even cross-reference any of these claims? Looks unlikely.

(CNN/Money) - Over $1 billion in government subsidies have gone into transforming discounter Wal-Mart Stores from a regional discount store operator into the world's largest retailer, according to a report Monday from Good Jobs First, a Washington-based subsidy watchdog group.

"Wal-Mart presents itself as an entrepreneurial success story, yet over a few decades it has made extensive use of tax breaks, free land, cash grants and other forms of public assistance," Philip Mattera, research director of Good Jobs First said in a statement.

The study, which is funded in part by the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, found that 91 Wal-Mart stores have received individual subsidies ranging from $1 million to about $12 million, in the form of free or reduced-priced land, job training funds, sales tax rebates, tax credits and infrastructure assistance, including investment in roads. (end quote)

Story here.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 06:39 pm
It's neither here nor there whether the 4% increase takes into account inflation.

I, and perhaps you also have commented before on the over-building of retail complexes. One of my staff travels a lot touring with his band. He has talked about seeing a mall exactly every 30 miles on some interstate with the same collection of stores in each. We are going to face a big problem with how shopping centers can be re-purposed in coming years.

I saw some stats from Forrester Research which is apparently a respected outfit regarding e-commerce. They had a nice chart showing sales rising about 10% a year since 2009. They also compared those sales to total retail sales (excluding groceries). I was surprised that e-commerce accounted for 11% in 2009 and 15% in 2013. I would have thought they were more of a factor and were growing much faster.
They are perhaps more of a factor in my little corner of retailing. Fortunately the stars are aligning such that, after 40 years on the same corner, I can wind the thing down gracefully and ride into the sunset.
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 06:46 pm
Interesting non-adult thread you have here, boys.

http://cdn77.sadanduseless.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/667.jpg
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 07:07 pm
Here's a prime example of what needs to happen, at a local level, to take back your economy from the corrupted system. You boys seem content to armchair critique, while the ship goes belly up.

It's called "crowd-sourcing", or as I prefer to call it, Direct Democracy.

Quote:
A theme running through the Plan is that without secure access to and control over our food, and without authentic freedom of choice when it comes to food, we lack the basis for any lasting personal, community and national development.

By putting our own people — our farmers, Australian businesses, our own communities — first when making decisions about our food future we become better able to provide fairly for our own needs and to play our role in helping feed those beyond our borders.

In a time of change such as we now find ourselves in, creating a fair food system that offers opportunity to small-to-medium farming and economic enterprises, to the people with ideas and for our citizens is a matter of personal, community, economic and national security. The Peoples’ Food Plan sets a fair and sensible course to these things… to a resilient food system. In this endeavour we invite you to join us.

Together we can built a better, more resilient food future…
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 08:02 pm
RealJohnboy: I have a feeling that if online is in fact doing very well that they are primarily taking it out of the hide of mall operators. Mall owners are already bankrupt or nearly so, gotta feeling that in the next five years we see a lot of dead malls. There is always the danger of bias because I never liked malls and stopped going about 15 years ago, but a lot of people now are talking about the mall concept no longer working.

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/4cfwt3ahvkilsyg4rcpdpa.png
https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/images/Viewpoints/II/2014_res_disc_1.JPG
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2014 08:39 pm
Lalalalala I can't hear you....


http://data3.whicdn.com/images/61707345/large.jpg
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Dec, 2014 11:37 am
Quote:
(Reuters) - Sears Holdings Corp <SHLD.O> reported a quarterly net loss of $548 million, slightly less than it had estimated last month, and the struggling retailer said it had nearly doubled its planned store closures to cut costs.


Shares of Sears were down 1.2 percent at $33.85 in early trading on the Nasdaq.

Sears, which has been selling off assets and closing stores in an attempt to return to profitability, said last month it was expecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of between $590 million and $630 million for the fiscal third quarter ending Nov. 1. Sears recorded a net loss of $534 million in the same period last year.

Quarterly sales fell 13 percent to $7.21 billion, a reflection in part of its shrinking store count.

The company reported an adjusted loss before interest, tax and depreciation (EBITDA) of $296 million for the quarter, compared with a loss of $310 million a year earlier.

The figures pointed to an "improving trend" that was expected to continue in the fourth quarter, Chief Executive Eddie Lampert said on a pre-recorded conference call.

Sears also disclosed that it planned to close a total of 235 underperforming stores in 2014, nearly double the projection of 130 made in August, although it had said at the time it may decide to shutter more beyond that target. Sears said eliminating those stores should boost EBITDA by $50 million

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-reports-smaller-estimated-quarterly-loss-112549054--finance.html

Consensus is over the last year coming around to the conclusion that Lampert has Sears/Kmart in a orderly liquidation. This is because no money is being invested into the stores, and because there is no realistic plan to save either brand. Right now Lambert is putting most of his effort onto extracting money from the real estate before it drops in value, the drop likely will be extreme once it becomes clear that the American Retail footprint is much too big.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Dec, 2014 11:25 pm
@hawkeye10,
Sears: Nothing Left But its Past


by Robin Lewis

Quote:

Eddie “fast buck” Lampert is squeezing the proverbial turnip for more cash — as the musicians aboard the sinking “Titanic” are now truly playing “Nearer My God to Thee.” The cash he’s squeezing out is his own, in the form of a $400 million loan from his hedge fund, ESL Holdings. And regardless of his sinking ship, he’s got a life saver in the form of a healthy interest rate and a loan secured by valuable real estate. So “abracadabra Eddie” keeps the ship afloat. For now.
Unfortunately the music is about to end, and as he continues to sell off the “deck chairs” (read: assets), Sears and its bleeding sister, Kmart, will finally sink into the briny. Some experts predict this will happen by 2016. Regardless of the financial predictions, these two retail brands are “dead men walking” as I write.
.
.
.
For a miraculous intervention to halt Sear’s death spiral, Eddie Lampert must first remove himself from the helm. He needs to find a retail genius, granted there is a very short supply in this industry. And furthermore, he must find a genius that would be interested in taking on the wreckage.


http://therobinreport.com/sears-nothing-left-but-its-past/

Aint going to happen, Lambert has been working his plan to kill Sears for profit, and it is now it is too late to stop the death, even if Lambert could be talked/shamed into changing his mind.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Dec, 2014 02:24 am
@hawkeye10,
Tracks my opinion well

Rise of the 'super savvy shopper' to blame for gloomy holiday sales, say experts



Quote:
Shoppers are getting smarter. The start of the holiday shopping season shows a simple discount, even a big one, isn't always enough to lure people to buy.
Shoppers can sniff out a legitimate deal from a fake one and are even leaving items in online shopping carts as reminders to look for a better bargain.
Shoppers with more knowledge and new patience may have contributed to the less-than-stellar turnout over Thanksgiving weekend, the traditional kickoff of holiday shopping.

Stores heavily discounted holiday merchandise days and even weeks before Black Friday. That gave shoppers plenty of opportunities to avoid the big lines.
That seemed to backfire over Thanksgiving weekend.
The endless stream of sales pitches made many shoppers confident that heavy discounts would continue right on through Christmas.
That may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The lukewarm start to the season means retailers will watch the next few weeks closely and could roll out more promotions than planned, says Dave Bassuk, managing director and co-head of the retail practice at AlixPartners.

'Retailers' greed hurt them, and the consumer is so much smarter,' he said.
ShopperTrak, a Chicago-based consumer analytics company that tracks data at malls and stores but not online sites, said earlier this week that sales for the four-day weekend slipped 2.1per cent to $21.76 billion.
Cyber Monday deals are also being stretched out into 'Cyber Week' and even earlier, crimping sales on the day itself. Sales rose 8.5 percent that day, the Monday after Thanksgiving, according to IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark. But that wasn't as strong as was expected.
The National Federation still projects sales will rise 4.1per cent for November and December, which accounts for on average 20per cent of the industry's total sales. But analysts expect a retail slugfest over winning those dollars.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2862441/How-holiday-shoppers-getting-smarter.html#ixzz3L6W1cmUP
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


That could have been me writing this.
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Dec, 2014 08:32 pm
*crickets* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8E_zMLCRNg
0 Replies
 
 

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