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Where is the US economy headed?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2012 02:38 pm
The US economy is struggling along - even at the expense of the GOP doing everything in their misguided power to make Obama fail.

Our country's growth is between 1 and 2% a year; it could have been stronger if the GOP didn't filibuster all the legislation that would have helped small businesses.

We are on a slow rate of recovery. Home prices and sales are on the upswing. That bodes well for our economy, because that means more construction jobs.
It means increases demand for raw materials, appliances, and everything that's needed to build homes. Add to that the increased demand for mortgage loans, title companies, and realty personnel. Somewhat like the auto industry, increased demand for homes increases jobs in other industries. That in turn increases consumer demand for more goods and services, and that's what any developed economy bases their economic stability.

That's only if the GOP doesn't destroy it with their stupidity.
0 Replies
 
Rickoshay75
 
  0  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2012 02:41 pm
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:

We at least need someone as President who is able to count past ten without removing his or her shoes and socks.


A flexible congress is more important. Presidents can only sign bills.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Fate leads him who follows it, drags him who resist. Plutarch
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2012 03:11 pm
@Rickoshay75,
What are you trying to imply?
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 20 Jan, 2013 11:37 pm
the recently released meeting minutes showing that almost no one running the Fed in 07 had any idea of of the calamity which was in the process of running us over puts an end to the argument of some here that this economy is under the control of experts.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jan, 2013 04:05 am
@hawkeye10,
Show us who made such a claim?
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jan, 2013 08:48 am
@hawkeye10,
That's a rather ridiculous claim hawkeye.
If we follow that logic then the shuttle disaster would show that no one at NASA is a rocket scientist. And the second shuttle disaster would confirm there are no rocket scientists there.
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Mon 21 Jan, 2013 09:48 am
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
the recently released meeting minutes showing that almost no one running the Fed in 07 had any idea of of the calamity which was in the process of running us over puts an end to the argument of some here that this economy is under the control of experts.


You are failing to allow, hawk, that the intention was precisely to "run you over" and that what transpired was not a calamity but a sweetly organised piece of social engineering in the service of objectives which obviously you have failed to consider in your eagerness to second guess what an expert is.

Once you use expressions such as "calamity" and " running us over" you are, by definition, involved in a circular argument. If those expressions are correct then the Fed, was indeed run by nincompoops.

We might, for example, say that the national propensity to live it up on borrowed money was driving the population mad and that it was felt that a mad population had no future in a globalised economic system.

I am, of course, not saying that is the case but simply that it might be considered to have some validity before coming to any hard and fast conclusions.
0 Replies
 
Kolyo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jan, 2013 12:00 pm
@parados,
Ah, but if you gave a group of engineers the task of getting people from one side of a gulch to the other, and their solution was to design a rocket ship (which then crashed), would you call them "expert" engineers? If "expert" observers assured us that the rocket ship was a beautiful mode of crossing the gulch, I'd be a bit leery of their advice, especially if similar rockets had gone down in flames in the past.

Banking doesn't have to be complicated. Somebody comes to you asking for a loan. You analyze whether that person can pay you back, and if so lend the money. But we have made it unduly complicated. And those who assure us that it's all for the best are far from expert in my book.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jan, 2013 12:26 pm
@Kolyo,
But the fed doesn't loan money to persons.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jan, 2013 06:14 pm
@Kolyo,
Quote:
Banking doesn't have to be complicated. Somebody comes to you asking for a loan. You analyze whether that person can pay you back, and if so lend the money. But we have made it unduly complicated. And those who assure us that it's all for the best are far from expert in my book

the bankers not understand/caring about risk is a problem, but the bosses allowing the creation of a derivative market that is 20 times global GDP when no derivative markets are required to run the economy efficiently is a much bigger crime. everybody was in on turning banking into a Vegas operation, but it is government and the fed bosses who will get most of the blame when loses from the unnecessary bets kills off our economic system and plunges the world into a long depression.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 01:24 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

Show us who made such a claim?

Quote:
In December 2007, the month that the recession is now known to have begun, Fed officials were working from economic projections that would prove wildly inaccurate. They forecast sluggish but sustained growth in 2008 followed by a bounceback in 2009. Staff economist Dave Stockton acknowledged that his was a more optimistic view:
“Our forecast could admittedly be read as still painting a pretty benign
picture: Despite all the financial turmoil, the economy avoids recession and, even with steeply higher prices for food and energy and a lower exchange value of the dollar, we achieve some modest edging-off of inflation.”
He then joked, “So I tried not to take it personally when I received a notice the other day that the Board had approved more frequent drug-testing for certain members of the senior staff, myself included. I can assure you, however, that the staff is not going to fall back on the increasingly popular celebrity excuse that we were under the influence of mind-altering chemicals and thus should not be held responsible for this forecast. No, we came up with this projection unimpaired and on nothing stronger than many late nights of diet Pepsi and vending-machine Twinkies.” (Ylan Q. Mui)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/18/breaking-inside-the-feds-2007-crisis-response/?hpid=z11

and again

Quote:
One Fed member sounding the alarm of problems in the housing market in October 30/31 2007 was Boston Fed chair Eric Rosengren. While he conceded that there was no direct evidence of a slowdown, “the distribution of risks around that outcome for growth remains skewed to the downside.” He added, “In fact, our forecast for residential investment has become sufficiently bleak that there may actually be some upside risk to it,” prompting laughter around the room (again, Fed humor is strange).
Rosengren’s forecast grew more and more prescient as the meeting wore on. “Particularly worrisome has been the announcement of significant downgrades of tranches of CDOs and mortgage-backed securities with large exposure to the subprime mortgage market,” he warned. “Not only have the lower tranches experienced significant downgrades, but a number of the AAA and AA tranches have been downgraded to below investment grade…The number of the downgrades, the magnitude of the downgrades, and the piecemeal ratings announcements all are likely to call into further question the reliability of the ratings process.”
Rosengren was the only committee member sounding the alarm about the possibility that the rating agencies were giving top grades to junk debt. Of course, that turned out to be exactly right. (Dylan Matthews)
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 05:25 am
@hawkeye10,
I assume that Pepsi and Twinkies are not going to take having their products besmirched by the association lying down.



0 Replies
 
Kolyo
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 03:44 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

But the fed doesn't loan money to persons.


No, they just loan money to banks who have loaned money irresponsibly when those banks get in trouble.
Kolyo
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 03:47 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

the bosses allowing the creation of a derivative market that is 20 times global GDP when no derivative markets are required to run the economy efficiently is a much bigger crime. everybody was in on turning banking into a Vegas operation, but it is government and the fed bosses who will get most of the blame when loses from the unnecessary bets kills off our economic system and plunges the world into a long depression.


I just hope they aren't to the point yet where they're placing bets on my life, as well as on loan defaults. Smile
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 04:07 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
but the bosses allowing the creation of a derivative market that is 20 times global GDP when no derivative markets are required to run the economy efficiently is a much bigger crime.


But that is circular hawk and depends on what you mean by efficiently. Derivative markets are an essential feature of a capitalist economy. I think the basic principles are enshrined in the Constitution. They just evolved under particularly energised conditions which the FFs could not possibly have imagined let alone legislated for.

A hunting and fishing community might be running their economy efficiently.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 05:10 pm
@Kolyo,
Kolyo wrote:


No, they just loan money to banks who have loaned money irresponsibly when those banks get in trouble.

No, they don't loan money to banks to make loans.
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 05:30 pm
@hawkeye10,
You just supplied info that contradicts what you claimed in the post I questioned.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 05:30 pm
@hawkeye10,
You just supplied info that contradicts what you claimed in the post I questioned.
hawkeye10
 
  2  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 07:08 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

You just supplied info that contradicts what you claimed in the post I questioned.

where? use the quote tab and parse the words. lazy drive-bys will not do.
cicerone imposter
 
  0  
Reply Tue 22 Jan, 2013 07:59 pm
@hawkeye10,
I'm in Hawaii using my tablet, and can't copy and paste, but every time I challenged you - you were wrong. Show me one instance I was wrong. You can cut and paste from any discussion we've had. Any.
0 Replies
 
 

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