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Democracy, China, How

 
 
J-B
 
Reply Wed 9 Feb, 2005 06:23 am
Well, It was the toughest issue I have ever dealt with. It is complicated, very complicated, we even have bled for this. And most important, I am a part of it.

The death of Zhao Ziyang and the reation of the government made me think a lot. I listened to Voice of America and Radio Free Asia nearly everyday these days, regardless of intense disturbance of Intellegence Agency's radio station.
I have roared I have cried I have puttered all around the small bedroom without doing anything but thinking of it.

Realy realy tough.

Up to now, I have only made on conclusion: Democracy will definitely come to China.
When will it come? How will it come? How much bloodshed will it take? WHat kind of democracy will come?....
Unpredictable

In this section, we can talk about the meaning and history of democracy, communism, China, human rights, freedom, and the possible prospect and every topics related.

Please, don't be reluctant. I scarcely have chance speaking freely. :wink:
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Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 9 Feb, 2005 09:47 am
^JB^,

The answer is "with patience". The Communists thought that they could totally erase China's cultural history, and they've work very hard to do it. Communism itself has proven to be a very faulty system for governing. Overly centralized planning and control, especially in large systems tends to deliver inefficiencies, corruption, and economic chaos. Making everyone dependant upon the State destroys initiative, and fosters social attitudes that overtime burdens and bogs the whole system down.

The Chinese Communists have shown some sensitivity to the several problems they find themselves chained to. Rather that blindly continue following idiotic Stalinist economic ideas, they have encouraged a gradual return to private ownership and investment. Faced with a major population explosion, their birth limitation laws were a harsh, but at least theoretically sound, means of slowing the birth rate. Large investments in the infrastructure necessary to provide the sort of life style desired by most people, the government is building a foundation for the future, though at sometimes staggering cost.

recognizing and working with the importance and central place of family in Chinese culture is one of the government's failures. Looking out for your family, and respecting ancestors is, I think, far too deeply embedded in the culture to be erased in less than a hundred years. I wouldn't be surprized to learn that the secret following of philosophical Taoism and Confucism is on the rise, especially away from the capitol. In the West, people often think of the Chinese as mystical, but they are really more practical than anything else. Do what must be done to survive and prosper under the current circumstances, and look out for the family. That's a very strong basis for social and governmental change in the Middle Kingdom.

I'm also concerned with the rate at which some technological progress is being made. The number of automobiles that are gas guzzlers that spew dangerous elements into the atmosphere is a dangerous development. In the West we've managed to reduce emissions and increase mileage, though our efforts have fallen far short of what is required given petroleum supplies and environmental damage from automobiles. As I understand it, in China the number of large dirty and wasteful vehicles is a throwback to where the West was over fifty years ago. That's just got to be fixed.

The still heavy dependance upon burning dirty coal for heat, cooking and electricity is another area that poses a major danger both for China and the world. Use of high sulphur coal needs to be curtailed. Increased use of hydroelectric is one answer, but I'm afraid that in China's case nuclear power plants will have to be a major consideration. Increasing the nation's productivity and broadening its economy is only possible by having a very large amount of electrical energy. After population this may be China's biggest problem.

One of the major questions is whether the existing government can move quickly and effectively enough to carry the country through this transitional period. Popular demand for consumer goods, especially automobiles, puts a lot of pressure on the central government. As the power elite move from the Communist ownership of everything to a more capitalistic system there will be increasing problems. Those who've come to rely upon the State for everything, no matter how unproductive they are/were, will not be happy campers. Old factories and social systems that add great cost without returning much social benefit won't go away over night. As individuals exercise their initiative and begin to acquire wealth, they will want more ... and Liberty to spend their wealth as they see fit. In order to keep the boiler from exploding the central government has to keep a lid on an increasingly dangerous situation, while reducing the pressure incrementally. A very tough business indeed.

Several things could upset the applecart. The Democratic Movement might become quite powerful more quickly than anyone might guess, and the Mandate of Heaven will be withdrawn from the Maoist Dynasty. There could be a bloody period as old hatreds and inequities were purged. Chaos would almost certainly reign for a time, and that in itself is a dangerous condition in a place like China at the beginning of the 21st century. There might be an outbreak of a highly communicable disease with a very high mortality rate from the Southeastern part of the PRC. In a worst case scenario upwards of 25% of the population might die within one year. That would be very destabilizing, and in the power vacuum the central government might well collapse. A third and fourth possibility are flood and famine. These are so common in Chinese history that they must be regarded as virtually inevitable. Hydro electrical projects may have decreased the risk of flood somewhat, but if the Yellow River overflowed its banks millions would die. Famine is more likely these days. The food production capability of the land that has been farmed for over three thousand years can not indefinitely feed an ever growing population. One or two bad harvest years could be disaster on a major scale.
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J-B
 
  1  
Reply Wed 9 Feb, 2005 10:01 pm
Very Happy
Ashermen fabulous analysis, and astonishing but also logical prediction.

Here, I am considering particularly in this case these days:
Hu jingtao (as well as central committee ) said that "western-style democracy dosen't suit China."

Why? I can't find the answer. What's your opnions?
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Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 9 Feb, 2005 10:11 pm
^JB^,

I'm not feeling well at the moment. Tomorrow, I'll try to write a bit about that. Ultimately, all people no matter where they're from or their cultural roots, shared very similar desires. Let me sleep now, and perhaps I can talk about this more clearly BTW, be careful the PRC regime is opening the door a little bit, but they are watching and they can be nasty if anything makes them just a little bit nervous. Obviously, you have some pretty good connections, don't stretch them too far or un-necessarily.
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J-B
 
  1  
Reply Wed 9 Feb, 2005 10:20 pm
ok. I will be waiting for you, good night Smile
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Thomas Hayden
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Feb, 2005 09:16 am
We all know that the current Chinese leadership is committed to peace and economic development, and is quickly giving up Maoist and Stalinist internal policies (today linked to North Korea). My question is: are still there hard line politicians in China powerful and crazy enough so they could be tempted to initiate a counter-capitalism coup (as some KGB hardliners attempted in the USSR in 1991). That is something many people would be feared of.
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Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Feb, 2005 11:01 pm
I'm sorry, but I'm sicker today than yesterday. Chills, fever, and a head so stuffed that no idea can make headway. My computer was down most of the day, and only was "repaired" late. I've made a few notes and will try to write again tomorrow.
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J-B
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2005 12:22 am
Asherman:
Do not think too much if you get sick. Really thank you for taking part in my topic. We have lot of time. It is a big issue. And sure I am going to learn a lot about this issue, both from you and some books.

Best wishes for you and be healthy soon Smile
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CowDoc
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Feb, 2005 10:58 pm
Asherman-- bumblebee suggested that I ask you if you have a favorite restaurant or night spot in Albuquerque, since I have to spend next Tuesday and Wednesday there. Let me know if there's a "must visit" spot.
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Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2005 10:20 am
Cowdoc,

We have a number of favorite restaurants, but being old fogies wouldn't know about nightspots. Being pretty much deaf, I don't even go out to the movies anymore. What sort of restaurants do you want to know about? There's a lot to see and do in and around Albuquerque if you have time and the inclination. Often our visitors like to shop for Indian art and jewlery. Old Town is a mecca for visitors, but if you are buying stuff (souveniers, turqoise, potter, etc. you should consult with us first. If you are interested in the Pueblos, there are a number of Indian Pueblos near by, and the Pueblo Indian Cultural Center downtown is worth a visit. The area has had a lot of snow this year, so if you like to ski that can be arranged in either the East Mountains or up in Taos. There are many hiking trails and abundent wildlife virtual within the City itself.

I've been down with the flu for the past week, but perhaps I'll have recovered by Tuesday. Often in the mornings I feel a little better, then by noon I'm sick as a dog again. Contact us when you get into town, and we'll see if we can't make your visit memorable. I don't do telephones, so PM me and I'll give you my Email address. Its raining today and probably most of tomorrow, but by Tuesday the weather should be clearing.

^JB^,

I wrote a draft response for you yesterday morning, but became too sick to continue before finishing. Later in the day the draft was lost, but I wasn't very happy with it anyway. I'll work on it again. I view this as important, and want to be very clear and complete in what I say.

Ash
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CowDoc
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2005 06:05 pm
A2K won't let me send a PM, Asherman. I already tried. I'm pretty much of an old fogey myself, so nightsposts are not a high priority. If you would like to meet and possibly grab a bite Wednesday night, leave me a message at the Hyatt, where I will be staying Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Tuesday I'm committed to an awards dinner, but (to the best of my knowledge) I'm clear on Wednesday. By the way, my name is Cope. Might see you next week!?
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Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Feb, 2005 11:14 pm
Which Hyat? [email protected]
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J-B
 
  1  
Reply Sun 13 Feb, 2005 05:24 am
waiting Smile
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J-B
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2005 03:16 am
Recently I am reading Joseph Schumpeter's Capitalism Socialism, and Democracy.

I find it extremely difficult and dreary to read the first three chapters in which he want to prove the possibility of Socialism by overwhelmingly using ,to me, uncanny economic terms. But the fourth part is just suit my recent interest: What is democracy, can democracy be achieved in a socialism, how can a democracy be achieved in a socialism, and what kind of democracy will be achieved in a socialism.

You have some comment about the book?
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Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 15 Feb, 2005 04:15 pm
I'm feeling a bit better this morning, so let's give commenting another chance. There are at least three elements that are raised by the question of whether "western-style democracy" is appropriate to China.

First, what is it exactly about democracy that is so appealing to the people all over the world? Is the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea a democracy? In spite of the words "Democratic" and "Republic" in the name, few would agree that the DPRK is the sort of governmental system of which dreams are made of. It takes more than the word to make up the thing that inspires people to endure great risk and hardship to achieve. Democracy, some might argue, is a governmental system where the People as individuals have a constitutionally guaranteed franchise to vote on governmental leaders and policies. Did the vote make Saddam's Iraq, or Stalin's Soviet Union Democratic? The questions are, of course, rhetorical.

What attracts people to the form of Democracy best typified by Britain and the United States, is something much more essential. Ask those who dream of immigrating to the United States what it is that draws them. The answer would probably not differ much from the generations of immigrants who've made the choice to tear themselves away from the land of their birth and the home of their ancestors to live in America. We hear again and again that people are seeking "opportunity to make a better life from themselves and their families". We hear again and again, "we seek to escape from injustice and oppression". "In America, you can believe and say whatever you believe without fear of the secret police." "In America, I will be able to choose to follow my own heart." People want to be free of fear, and at liberty to decide for them selves how and where to live. They seek fortune as a reward for their personal effort and initiative. People want to have a say in their government, but even more than that they want to be left alone to pursue their own dreams. That's what inspires people living in chains, gagged from speaking their minds. It is the feast of liberty that people are starved for even more than the desire for a few more calories per day. What we all want is to secure for our families and ourselves those things that are pleasant while avoiding the risk of suffering.

It doesn't matter whether the individual is Chinese, or Bulgarian. The wealthiest and most powerfully connected member of the Party wants liberty almost as much as their prisoners behind thick stone walls. When one lends themselves to the oppression of others, they are themselves oppressed. The heart knows oppression and yearns always for liberty.

Second what governmental systems might realize our dreams of personal liberty? In the United States we have a constitutional representative form of government. The "purer democracy" of Athens and other small organizations would be a disaster for a modern nation of millions with worldwide interests. This system is designed to balance the power of interest groups so that none can seize total power, nor any sort of power for extended periods of time. We have two major political parties to guarantee that there will always be an opposition party to constrain the party in power. Both of the major political parties are kept from extreme positions by their need to win the votes of those millions who occupy the middle of the political spectrum. The Constitution constrains those in power from abridging the fundamental processes upon which the whole system depends for stability. In this system, politicians promise a lot, but are actually only capable of keeping a small percentage of the promises. Compromise is the grease that keeps the system going, though the extreme partisans of both parties hate compromise with a passion. Once representatives to local, State, and Federal governments are elected, most folks do little more than complain about the government. Most folks are so busy living their everyday lives that government is almost entirely in the hands of our representatives. If you don't like what happened, then you throw the rascals out of office and elect someone else. This system has played an important role in making the United States prosperous, stable and our citizens reasonably content. The system has worked very well for us for a couple of hundred years now.

Fascism at its best was the modern equivalent of idea of a Philosopher King. Governments should be led by wise almost saintly leaders who know what's best for everyone. Hey, the trains in Italy ran on time under the Fascists. Hitler sold the idea that he and his Party would create the perfect German world, if you just leave every thing to the Fuhrer. The Philosopher King is the story that despots and dictators always like to sell. A few historical figures actually do meet the bill, sorta. Marcus Aurelius is notable.

Communism based on the idealism of Marx garnered a lot of followers during the 20th century, but it was a terrible failure. Communism lasted less than a hundred years, hardly an eye-blink in history. Communists and kings are all men, and men allowed unchecked, unconstrained powers are easily turned into beasts. Selfishness and vanity overturn the finest of ideals. If you want to see the dangers of unconstrained leadership, you need look no further than Kim Jong-Il and the hell that he has made of the DPRK. There is NO man who can be trusted with the liberty of another. If we ever surrender our liberty to some other person, or entity, it is gone forever. We can and do loan our consent in order to secure the blessings of liberty, but we can never give them up. Is there another way to provide the blessings of liberty that were described at the beginning of this essay?

Third, how is the East, China in particular, different from the West? The history of Western Civilization took a very different path from that followed by Asia. About three thousand years ago the cultural divide between East and West was already well underway. Western Civilization owes much of its character to Greece and Athens in particular. The Greeks were individualists who valued innovation and questioning. The Athenians struck the balance between the rights of society and in the individual strongly in favor of the individual. To the East, the balance was against the individual and in favor of society, especially as defined by the King. The Greeks were creative and sly (remember the Trojan Horse), while the Persians favored overwhelming an obstacle with sheer thoughtless masses. To the Persians, the individual counted for almost nothing.

The Roman Empire was heir to Greek idealism and continued to value the individual highly, though with much more emphasis on discipline. From ancient times until very recently, Europe has never been a fully consolidated and integrated. The whole continent was a patchwork of small governmental entities struggling with one another for territory, religion, etc. Struggle and competition has kept the idea of individualism central to Western ways of approaching things. What is good for "me", is seldom trumped by the question what is best for the group.

This has both upsides and downsides. Westerners tend to be creative, but egotistical. We tend to be arrogant, but confident in our own ability to do anything. We take risks almost without thinking about it, but fail frequently because of our imprudence. We believe in Progress toward a better world, but overlook the many problems that our progress spawns. We seldom let tradition get in the way of change, but we have generally a rotten grasp of history. We look always forward and forget the lessons of the past. We ARE the epitome, so those before us are discounted while we expect those who follow us will screw up our carefully laid plans. We are impatient. Constitutional representative democracy has proven to be a very good system for us over the last couple of hundred years.

China, on the other hand, has been with few exceptions a single entity for most of the past 3,000 years. Confucism, Taoism and Buddhism never fought a major religious war. Chinese culture adapted well to the social structuring of Confucism. An Imperial bureaucracy ruled China until recent times, but that bureaucracy was at least theoretically a meritocracy. To enter and gain power in the government one had to pass a series of Civil Service examinations. Anyone might qualify whether they were peasant or a favorite of the Emperor. The reality was that those who came from wealthy families were tutored and prepared far beyond what most peasants could ever hope to achieve. Another problem was that the examinations weren't on practical subjects, but on how well one had memorized the classical texts of Confucism. If a young person could manage to pass the exams, he was in a position then to help and enrich his extended family. The Mandarate provided local justice, directed local government projects like road building, grain storage, waterworks etc., and collected the Imperial taxes. Corruption was common, and with the passage of time each dynasty began to rot from within. When things became very bad, the People would begin to believe that the Mandate of Heaven was being withdrawn from the ruling dynasty. Revolts, first among the peasants and then within the military, became more common and eventually the Dynasty would fall.

At the fall of each dynasty, there would be a period of chaos during which local commanders (often peasants who held office in one or another of the secret societies … Triads) contended for power. When one Warlord finally reconsolidated the country, a new Dynasty was born, and the Mandate of Heaven was restored. During the early dynastic period discipline tended to be brutal, but fair and with a minimum of corruption. The next stage in the Dynastic Cycle showed the fruit of improved government. Prosperity and economic well being would reign for a time. The arts and poetry would flourish, and the People tended to be content. As the Emperor pursued personal pleasure instead of managing the country, things would begin to slip. Folks would begin cheating on the Civil Service Exams, misappropriating funds, diverting food stocks, using inferior materials on government projects, hiring incompetent nephews, selling judicial decrees, and striking deals with the local gentry. Discontent would begin to rise, and the secret societies would become active again. This Dynastic Cycle happened again and again in Chinese history, but the basic system and culture never really changed. The Chinese tend to be very traditionally biased, and very practical in meeting circumstances. In Chinese culture nothing has endured so well as the value of the family and the group over the value of any individual. "Nothing ever really changes, though nothing will ever be so good again as during the time of the Yellow Emperor." The Chinese have historically looked backward for Utopia, not forward. This is a very different way of looking at things than we find in the Western World.

There are upsides and downsides. Depending upon the group and family has a very high survival quotient in a system given to the Dynastic Cycle and periodic flood, famine and destructive earthquakes. The Chinese struck a balance between the "democratic principles" of a meritocracy based on civil service examination, and the absolutism one associates with an Emperor holding the Mandate of Heaven. If the Emperor screws up and loses the Mandate, then even a peasant might rise to receive the Mandate of Heaven and the Chinese throne. Extended periods of stability and plenty have generally served the Chinese People well. Even if the individual fails to prosper, his well being will be guaranteed by his extended family/group/society. No one need ever be alone. Work hard and support the group, and a person can have a reasonably good life. Mao understood the underpinnings of Chinese society, and he did a pretty good job of molding his own brand of Communism to it.

********************

The question posed by ^JB^ is not a mere academic exercise. The situation faced by the leaders of China today is very real and serious. Even a small slip might cause chaos and the deaths of millions of people. If what happened in the Soviet Union was repeated in China, the world would be at far greater risk. The PRC leadership is riding a hungry tiger in a dark closet. Rapid change could easily slip out of control, with nothing to prevent economic and social disaster in China. This would be disaster for the entire world.

It appears that the PRC leadership is aware of the dangers, and is moving to defuse the situation as quickly as they can. The problems are immense. The Birth/Mortality Rate is far too great, and the resources available to prevent mass starvation are finite. There is an imbalance between males and females within the younger demographic cohorts. Shifting from a central planned government owned economy to a more capitalistic one is a great challenge. Many in the power elite, and among the People themselves are still reluctant to abandon the Communist dreams of utopia. The healthcare system is seriously deficient. The amount of consumer goods available is insufficient for the demand, so prices are beyond most people and the system is unlikely to be able to supply enough of the most desirable goods soon. The government/management system is still blocked to many of those whose efforts are needed. How can a system of merit be reintroduced in a timely manner, without losing control of the system? What will happen if famine, flood, or disease sweeps the country?

I wish that I knew how best to reform the PRC in the shortest time and with the least risk of the country falling into chaos. I'm sorry I can't, and I doubt that anyone can. The Chinese People continue to work toward a new system, but need to be patient. Everything takes time. It is possible that some "democratic" system more congenial to Chinese culture than the constitutional representative system of the United States might be devised. Personally, I think that a constitutional representative system would probably be best, but that it might take another hundred years to get there. In the meantime, each day we work as hard as we might to improve conditions incrementally within our own reach. I can't make the world perfect, but I can perfect my own life. I can't feed all the starving nations, but I can feed my family and the stranger at my door. I have little control over the policies of my government, but I can govern my little corner of the world well.
0 Replies
 
J-B
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Feb, 2005 12:03 am
Fantastic Asherman Smile
I nearly readi it within just one breath. Very Happy

I especially impressed by your view of Chinese history and culture.
And you have made a link between politics and culture-----That was long I ignore and now I feel the link is vitally important.

Yes, CCP fear the situation to be got out of control. Here I can tell you something that can prove it which you might have not known before.
In recent months, the Party has sponsored 3 major movements within the memers:
(Maybe my translation is not quite good)
1. Keep members' advantages of the spirit
2. Promote the ability of ruling of the Party
3. (most recently) Establish a harmonious society.

Personally I don't think these things have any effect. But It DOES indicate that CCP is very concerned with the stability of the country.
0 Replies
 
SerSo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Feb, 2005 05:08 am
Reading with great interest!

I do hope that having the example of the transition from socialism to capitalism in Russia, China can find her way to combine the virtues of both systems and avoid our mistakes.
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Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Feb, 2005 12:07 pm
1. FEED THE TIGER

The Chinese People, billions of them, are the tiger and they are hungry. They want stability, reduced risks and the opportunity to improve their lot in life. So far the CCP holds power by overwhelming and unyielding force. The Party would do well to demonstrate its legitimacy by showing it has the Mandate of Heaven. Traditionally, the People recognize the Mandate of Heaven as when the government is run by merit demonstrated by open and fair civil service examinations. When the Mandate of Heaven is granted there is economic stability and plenty. The nation's roads and waterways are safe and in good repair. There is little corruption, and justice is dealt fairly in the courts. The arts flourish. Here are some of the things that I believe would help improve things in China if adopted by the CCP:

a. Open and expand educational opportunities throughout the country. The goal is 100% literacy, and creation of a highly skilled and educated work force. Education, especially in critical disciplines, is essential and needs to be ideologically free of political cant. Some critical disciplines are medicine, engineering, mathematics, computer sciences, management, European languages, teaching, and etc. Chinese literature, history, and the study of law are among the many other major fields that would help to transform China. Education in the trades and occupations should be just as diligently pursued. Education has for thousands of years been the key to economic and social advancement for the Chinese, so put that key back into their hands.

Military rank and promotion should favor graduates of military academies similar to West Point and Sandhurst. Political ideology should only be considered for the highest military ranks. As the population swells, the percentage of Chinese engaged in farming is steadily dropping. To best employ the urban masses, they must be skilled and able to lead productive lives. Students and faculty may be prohibited from public political demonstrations during at least the transitional period.

b. Reintroduce politically unbiased civil service examinations for every job within the government. There should be no ideological purity test for government positions. Make the civil service examinations appropriate to the jobs, and leave them open to everyone. Let the best-qualified person have the job, and the whole system will become less corrupt, more effective and efficient. By opening the doors to merit, the People will seize the opportunity and will have greater faith in the PRC's ability to govern. As the number of highly skilled, but non-political, workers, opportunities for relatively non-threatening opposition to the CCP will emerge.

c. Reform the tax system. Peasant farmers should pay their 10% tax in kind, with the food being stockpiled in government facilities as a reserve against famine, and to control food prices. This bias in favor of the small farmer is important to insure maximum agricultural production, and to prepare for the periodical famines so common to China.

All other earnings to be taxed at 10% of the gross on all adults. An additional 5% tax levied on each child in excess of two. For example, a working couple with two children would pay 10% of each salary. If they had a third child, their tax goes up by 5%. Four children would mean a tax burden of 20%, and that should discourage large families. From the tax base, the government would provide subsistence to the old and infirm unable to work … again to discourage large families. I'm suggesting here that the tax system be used to curb the birthrate that is one of China's biggest and worst problems. Well-educated, skilled professionals tend to have fewer children, and that is an additional reason for policies encouraging upward mobility.

d. Improve and extend China's physical infrastructures. This is especially important when applied to waterways, dams and flood control projects. Roadways suitable for automobile/truck traffic need to be in good repair, and reach into even the most remote villages of the provinces. The real emphasis though, should be on railroads capable of carrying heavy cargo and passengers. During times of crisis, like famine, the greatest failure is often the distribution networks. Rail is probably the best and most economical way to insure against regional scarcity. Rail also would enhance the ability of remote regions to improve their productivity, while gaining access to highly desirable consumer goods. China's air system still lags behind its needs, so new high capacity airfields need to be created in many locations.

Electrical power is another critical requirement for the transformation of China. Hydro-electrical power plants, especially in the South may provide a partial answer. However, if the country is to abandon the burning of soft coal much more will be required. In the western regions wind and solar power production should be at least investigated. In the end, the PRC may be forced to design and construct the most modern and efficient atomic power plants possible.

e. Improve the country's health system. In particular, the sanitation and public health system in the South desperately needs to be upgraded. The greatest danger of an epidemic with a 20-30% mortality rate is centered in the South where people live in squalid conditions with their domestic livestock and wildlife. Educate the People and clean up the conditions that foster disease. Every province should have a first-rate modern medical facility that is fully staffed and well stocked with the best medicines available. If an epidemic breaks out time is of the essence, and only advance preparation has any chance of diverting disaster.

f. New technology should be required to conform to the best and highest environmental standards possible. The introduction of large numbers of high polluting, gas-guzzling automobiles is extremely counterproductive to internal improvements and wasteful of resources badly needed elsewhere. I've already spoken to the need for more clean power generation, and reductions in the use of soft coal. I expect that there would be increased use of chemicals as productivity increased, and they should be carefully regulated and monitored to avoid the cesspools so common in the old Soviet Union.

g. Make the Justice System independent of politics. Police, Judges, lawyers, and prisons should operate solely on the factual evidence that an individual has committed a specific and non-political crime. Contracts and business agreements are basically a private matter, not political. Political crimes should only be charged against members of the CCP, and only such trials should be conducted before political courts.

2. TURN ON THE LIGHTS.

The time for censorship and the suppression of opposition can not continue indefinitely. The shrinking of the modern world just won't allow it. Increased use of cellular communications and the pervasiveness of the Internet makes it harder and harder to control the information available to the People at large. China is a part of the global economy, and it has to compete with societies unconstrained by political censorship. India, another emerging nation with terrible problems and a birth rate that leads almost inevitably to disaster, isn't going to give up any economic advantage it might have to China. Information IS power, and China needs to harness that power as soon as it possibly can. Once people are exposed to different ideas, they will talk about them, discuss and argue them. It would be economic and political suicide to close the door to open communications within China.

Allowing open opposition to the CCP is a very big risk, but if the "tiger has been fed" and the People accept that the CCP has the Mandate of Heaven, the risk though substantial is worth it. Legitimizing opposition gradually among the professional/managerial classes chosen on merit rather than political purity can minimize the risk. By reducing over time the need for ideological correctness, the force of opposition would be defused.

a. Communicate honestly, and openly to the Chinese People what the problems faced by the nation are, and ask for their support and efforts to solve the problems. Folks with control issues often find it difficult to admit that they are having difficulties with large problems. That's a mistake, the bigger the problem the more important it is that everyone in the group understand it and is committed to overcoming the problems. Most people have more understanding than they are given credit for by those "who know what's best". Harness the power of the Chinese People, and you have an almost unbelievable resource.

b. Allow the creation of single opposition party. If folks don't agree with the CCP's national policies, then they would have a "place" to voice their opposition rather than in secret, or in the streets. In an early phase the Party could keep an eye on the opposition, while making it possible to let systemic stresses to be reduced without open revolt. If the Party were wise, they'd pretty much keep their hands off the opposition party. No heavy handed actions taken against individuals, or groups, unless there was a very clear danger. As mentioned above individuals opposing CCP policies might be tried in civil courts, but not be subject to political trials. Having an open Opposition Party would signal the CCP's confidence, and that in turn would consolidate support for their policies.

c. Gradually eliminate all censorship of written materials, including political documents.

d. Increase access to radio, television and film media throughout the country. Development of a sophisticated communications network will help to knit the country together in times of crisis, and provide opportunities to encourage policies intended to benefit the whole nation.

e. Produce and distribute radio, television and film entertainment popular with the masses. Reintroduce traditional Chinese Opera, Kung-Fu movies, and stories based on traditional Chinese literature and art. Confucian, Taoist and Buddhist influences are found in almost all of the traditional materials that have been popular with the Chinese for a thousand years, or more. Those influences aren't to be feared, but can be used to help restore unanimity of community throughout China. Old stories might be given modern settings, but the morals taught in the stories shouldn't be forced into some political mold. Never underestimate the power of the circus, nor the presistence of cultural traditions as old as those in China.

3. OPEN THE DOOR

After a transitional period, hold a national election where the People can vote for either the CCP, or the Opposition Party. If the CCP has done a proper job of seizing the Mandate of Heaven, they'll almost certainly be elected in a landslide. A national election, after a suitable period of preparation, would finally legitimize the opposition and give them some access to the policy-making apparatus of the central government. The People would have the opportunity of expressing their individual feelings about how China is governed, and the foundations would be laid for a long period of national stability and prosperity.

It would be very helpful during the leadup to this stage if the PRC were to withdraw from Tibet, and forswear any intention to militarily force the return of Taiwan to China. Let Taiwan know that they would be welcome to rejoin Jung-Gwo, but that the reconciliation must be voluntary. These two actions would reduce the difficulties of governing China, and would signal to the rest of the world that China is not a military threat to anyone.

4. DISMOUNT THE TIGER
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