http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/a/2005/01/25/national0929EST0528.DTL
As Congress started to digest a new Bush administration request of $80 billion to bankroll wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, its top budget analyst on Tuesday projected $855 billion in deficits for the next decade even without the costs of war and President Bush's Social Security plan.
Three senior administration officials said the White House would request $80 billion for the wars, or a bit more, soon after Bush submits his budget for fiscal 2006 to lawmakers on Feb. 7. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the program has not yet been announced, said $75 billion of it would be for U.S. military costs, with the rest including funds to train and equip Iraqi and Afghan forces, aid the new Palestinian leadership, build an embassy in Baghdad and help victims of warfare in Sudan's Darfur province.
Congress approved $25 billion for the wars last summer. Using figures compiled by the Congressional Research Service, which prepares reports for lawmakers, the newest request would push the totals provided for the conflicts and worldwide efforts against terrorism past $300 billion. That includes $25 billion already provided for rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan.
In a written statement, Bush said the money would support U.S. troops and help the United States "stand with the Iraqi people and against the terrorists trying desperately to block democracy and the advance of human rights."
Amid the White House's preparations, the Congressional Budget Office predicted the government will accumulate another $855 billion in deficits over the next decade.
The projection, for the years 2006 through 2015, is almost two-thirds smaller than what congressional budget analysts predicted last fall. But the drop is due largely to quirks in budget estimates that required the agency to exclude future Iraq and Afghanistan war costs and other expenses. Last September, the 10-year deficit estimate was $2.3 trillion.
The CBO also projected this year's shortfall will be $368 billion. That was close to the $348 billion deficit for 2005 that it had forecast last fall. The two largest deficits ever in dollar terms were last year's $412 billion and the $377 billion gap of 2003.
The budget office estimated that if U.S. troop strength in Iraq and Afghanistan declines gradually after 2006, those wars would add $590 billion to deficits over the next decade. Including war costs, this year's shortfall should hit about $400 billion, the budget office said.
One of the administration officials said the White House will project this year's deficit -- including war costs -- at $427 billion, citing higher overall spending estimates than the congressional estimators used.
Besides lacking war costs, the budget office's deficit estimates also omitted the estimated pricetag of Bush's goal of revamping Social Security, which could cost $1 trillion to $2 trillion and dominate this year's legislative agenda.
Also left out were the price of extending Bush's tax cuts and easing the impact that the alternative minimum tax would have on middle-income Americans, which could exceed $2.3 trillion, the report said.
When those items are included, Bush is a long way from his goal of cutting deficits in half by 2009, Democrats said.
"Republicans control the House, the Senate and the White House, but they can't control the budget and they can't escape responsibility for its dismal condition," said Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, top Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
Republicans used the deficit figures to underscore the need to find budget savings this year, including from popular benefit programs, which include Medicaid.
"If we do nothing, our kids and grandkids will be overwhelmed by the costs of our inaction," said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg, R-N.H.
The White House chose to discuss its war spending package as the United States confronts continued violence in Iraq leading up to that country's Jan. 30 elections.
"We thought it important to make it clear to the Iraqi people that we are committed to success and the mission in Iraq," one administration official said when asked why the White House decided to discuss the package.
Officials said the money would be used to add at least 17 combat brigades to the Army, which is bearing the brunt of the fighting in Iraq. They said it would also finance the military's personnel costs, the replacement of worn out and damaged equipment, and efforts to prevent insurgents from bombing U.S. troops.
One aide said the request will also include funds to help the new Afghan government combat drug trafficking. It might also have money to help two new leaders the U.S. hopes will be allies, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko.
The aides said they were not yet ready with a request to help Indian Ocean countries hit by the devastating December tsunami. They said such costs were averaging $5 million daily, and one said the administration's proposal would be a "significant request, very generous assistance."
The forthcoming request highlights how much war spending has soared past initial White House estimates. Early on, then-presidential economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey placed Iraq costs at $100 billion to $200 billion, only to see his comments derided by administration colleagues.
By pushing war spending beyond $300 billion, the latest proposal would approach nearly half the $613 billion the United States spent for World War I or the $623 billion it expended for the Vietnam War, when the costs of those conflicts are translated into 2005 dollars.