71
   

Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
snood
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 06:35 am
@blatham,
blatham wrote:

The consequences of this in terms of climate-forced migration truly scares the hell out of me. The modern tendencies we see towards authoritarian/totalitarian "solutions" are surely only going to get worse, perhaps very much worse.


Which is exactly why, in saner times (before three years ago) the military was freely expressing that they considered climate change a major(some said the biggest) threat to national security.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 06:43 am
@hightor,
God damn that is a good piece. "California technological dream in disguise". Half way done and I'll get to the rest a bit later. Thanks, my man!
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 06:58 am
@snood,
Quote:
Which is exactly why, in saner times (before three years ago) the military was freely expressing that they considered climate change a major(some said the biggest) threat to national security.
Yes. Any contemporary expression of those concerns will be squelched.

More and more, I feel like we're members of a tragic Greek chorus. We've been around a long time and we know that if someone does X then a shitstorm is going to come down inevitably. And no one can hear our warnings.

What's a bit upsetting in this is that the Evangelicals have their own chorus shouting a different tale of woe and warning. And no one hears them either.

I think there's room for a play where the regular sort of Oedipus characters disappear early and then vicious war breaks out among various camps of choruses.

Note: surely this has nothing to do with our ascent to senior citizenry.
0 Replies
 
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 04:13 pm
@snood,
snood wrote:

Which is exactly why, in saner times (before three years ago) the military was freely expressing that they considered climate change a major(some said the biggest) threat to national security.

The political polarization was influencing both sides of climate belief before the latest presidential election. Many Democrats were asserting climate claims not because they were objectively convinced of it but because there was political/social validation in doing so, and then because there were economic benefits associated with exercising government (spending and regulation) to do something about it.

What you have to realize about regulations, taxes, spending programs, etc. is that there are people who analyze how to trigger spending in any way they can, because doing so results in fiscal transfers that they can invest in or profit from.

So, for example, I read about this water-protection rollback the other day and of course my first response is to be offended, but then I have to think about who has an interest in triggering pollution fines by stimulating pollution of some water way.

Someone might love their local river, but not enough to avoid triggering pollution that will result in fines, which will transfer funds from the rich local corporation (that will be blamed for the pollution) to the cleanup effort or other mitigation efforts that will result from the fine.

Really it's no different than scamming insurance by causing a crash and then filing for an insurance claim to pay for the damage, doctor bills, etc. and then getting kickbacks from the people who get paid because they are grateful you chose them to fix the damage.

Yes, something needs to be done about climate-altering industrial-consumer practices; but we need to be more aware about how and why the climate-changing economic behaviors don't change even when the government is ostensibly pursuing reform.

In reality, if people really wanted to reduce CO2 emissions and other harms, they could - but because they care more about things like money and comfort and whatever else is threatened by reform, they will find ways to undermine and escape responsibility.

Think about it. Let's say the Trump administration suddenly completely agreed with climate reform and did something drastic like mandate 50% less automobiles on the roads. If they even tried to do that, corporations and local governments, unions, etc. would intervene and obstruct the government restrictions until the administration could be voted out and replaced with a more moderate one, which might still claim to have solutions to the problems but which would only achieve those reforms that were popular enough not to get them in trouble with the stakeholders.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 03:24 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
Many Democrats were asserting climate claims not because they were objectively convinced of it but because there was political/social validation in doing so, and then because there were economic benefits associated with exercising government (spending and regulation) to do something about it.

That's a lie. You know not what motivates people, and have no way of knowing.
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 06:17 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
So, for example, I read about this water-protection rollback the other day and of course my first response is to be offended, but then I have to think about who has an interest in triggering pollution fines by stimulating pollution of some water way.

Can you provide even one example where pollutants were intentionally discharged into a waterway in order to trigger fines?
Quote:
Yes, something needs to be done about climate-altering industrial-consumer practices; but we need to be more aware about how and why the climate-changing economic behaviors don't change even when the government is ostensibly pursuing reform.

The US government is not pursuing reform so it's no wonder economic behavior hasn't changed.
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 09:32 am
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

Quote:
Many Democrats were asserting climate claims not because they were objectively convinced of it but because there was political/social validation in doing so, and then because there were economic benefits associated with exercising government (spending and regulation) to do something about it.

That's a lie. You know not what motivates people, and have no way of knowing.

Try an experiment: ask any Democrat if they believe in climate reform enough to support it if it involves reducing government spending and regulation instead of inducing it.

If Democrats are objectively concerned with climate, and it turns out that government-stimulated economic growth makes climate change worse and reform more difficult, then they will look for another strategy to resolve social problems and pursue sustainability besides stimulating the economy with various spending projects, right?
livinglava
 
  2  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 09:41 am
@hightor,
hightor wrote:

Quote:
So, for example, I read about this water-protection rollback the other day and of course my first response is to be offended, but then I have to think about who has an interest in triggering pollution fines by stimulating pollution of some water way.

Can you provide even one example where pollutants were intentionally discharged into a waterway in order to trigger fines?

It was an example to illustrate the general principle that people can look at regulation in two ways: 1) obey the regulation and avoid fines/punishments; or 2) stimulate others to disobey the regulations in order to trigger fines/punishments so that they can benefit in some way from the resulting economic activity/stimulus.

Quote:
Yes, something needs to be done about climate-altering industrial-consumer practices; but we need to be more aware about how and why the climate-changing economic behaviors don't change even when the government is ostensibly pursuing reform.

The US government is not pursuing reform so it's no wonder economic behavior hasn't changed.
[/quote]
That's a false assumption. When government gives the appearance that it is taking care of reforms, it lulls the people into just going on with business as usual without considering the ways that government's hands are tied by democracy.

Just think about it: what would happen if any government, Democrat or Republican, tried to enforce a mandatory reduction of private motor-vehicle ownership by 50%? How long do you think it would be before industry would lobby that government out of office and replace it with a new one that claimed to have better solutions that didn't require reducing the motor-vehicle population and the footprint of paved infrastructure and developed land?

Government is thus powerless to do anything that is economically unpopular; and then instead of just allowing the free market to deter people/investors from risking money unnecessarily, they stimulate growth so that investors have to keep investing their money to keep up with inflation instead of saving it.

If government didn't stimulate growth, there would be little new land development because it would be too risky. It is because people want jobs and business investments that the government stimulates new development and infrastructure projects all the time, even when some other already-developed property would be fine.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:02 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
That's a false assumption.

It's not a "false assumption" — the federal government is not doing anything about carbon emissions.
Quote:
When government gives the appearance that it is taking care of reforms, it lulls the people into just going on with business as usual without considering the ways that government's hands are tied by democracy.

If the regulations are meaningful and effectively address the issue neither business nor the public will be able to continue operating in the same manner.
Quote:
Just think about it: what would happen if any government, Democrat or Republican, tried to enforce a mandatory reduction of private motor-vehicle ownership by 50%?

Be realistic — no US government is going to do that. Yes, it's true that enraged citizens can force unpopular laws to be changed. So lawmakers need to craft the regulations skillfully so they appear fair. It's unusual but not impossible.
Quote:
If government didn't stimulate growth, there would be little new land development because it would be too risky.

I agree that government pro-growth policies need to end. But I don't ever expect to see that sort of policy. It's too much of an admission of responsibility for the climate crisis and I don't think the national psyche could handle it. I don't expect pro-growth policies to end until climatic conditions dictate it.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:17 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
ask any Democrat if they believe in climate reform enough to support it if it involves reducing government spending and regulation instead of inducing it.

Of course they would say "Wonderful! We can save public money and fight climate change at the same time. Double whammy!
0 Replies
 
livinglava
 
  0  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:29 am
@hightor,
hightor wrote:

Quote:
That's a false assumption.

It's not a "false assumption" — the federal government is not doing anything about carbon emissions.

Don't twist what I said in order to respond with something else that has nothing to do with it. If you're not going to adequately read what I wrote before responding to it, don't respond.

Quote:
Quote:
When government gives the appearance that it is taking care of reforms, it lulls the people into just going on with business as usual without considering the ways that government's hands are tied by democracy.

If the regulations are meaningful and effectively address the issue neither business nor the public will be able to continue operating in the same manner.

BS. The public and business want to all buy and drive cars and trucks and they want the money that comes from everyone being in debt to the auto companies and making insurance payments, etc. They want the big road/highway contracts and they want to build lots of new residential and retail developments that everyone drives around to.

The government could easily mandate people live and work and shop within walkable communities and that the vast majority have to use public transit to travel between such communities, and massive amounts of land could be restored by doing that; but it would change the way the current economy operates and people are afraid they won't make as much money that way, so the people and the businesses would vote out any government that effectively requires such change.

Quote:
Quote:
Just think about it: what would happen if any government, Democrat or Republican, tried to enforce a mandatory reduction of private motor-vehicle ownership by 50%?

Be realistic — no US government is going to do that. Yes, it's true that enraged citizens can force unpopular laws to be changed. So lawmakers need to craft the regulations skillfully so they appear fair. It's unusual but not impossible.

Yes, that is exactly my point. The government isn't going to do what it takes to resolve climate problems because they care more about being popular and not getting voted out. Then, what's worse, is they go on stimulated the status quo, which is resistant to change.

Quote:
Quote:
If government didn't stimulate growth, there would be little new land development because it would be too risky.

I agree that government pro-growth policies need to end. But I don't ever expect to see that sort of policy. It's too much of an admission of responsibility for the climate crisis and I don't think the national psyche could handle it. I don't expect pro-growth policies to end until climatic conditions dictate it.

Then why are you pro-government? You admit that I am right that it isn't going to change things for the better; and you also seem to acknowledge that the growth-stimulus makes it worse.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:29 am
On a related issue involving our understanding of "elites". Take, on the one hand, scientists and academics working on GW and on the other, the lobbyists and fossil fuel executives and how they are remunerated
Quote:
John Warner
@biblioracle
I used to play "guess my salary" when I was a full-time lecturer at Clemson. Probably 30 guesses, lowest was $75k. Highest was $140k. Actual salary (2005-2011) was $25k.


This breaks my heart. But in the future, when anyone suggests that scientists/academics are "promoting GW for financial gain", please grab the nearest fire extinguisher and shove it up their ass.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 11:17 am
@livinglava,
Quote:
Then why are you pro-government?

I'm not "pro-government". If you're not going to adequately read what I wrote before responding to it, don't respond.
livinglava
 
  0  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 12:06 pm
@hightor,
hightor wrote:

Quote:
Then why are you pro-government?

I'm not "pro-government". If you're not going to adequately read what I wrote before responding to it, don't respond.

You said the following, implying that you believe government to be more effective than I claimed it to be:

Quote:
If the regulations are meaningful and effectively address the issue neither business nor the public will be able to continue operating in the same manner.


I already responded to it, so I'm not going to do so further again now.
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 12:32 pm
@livinglava,
Quote:
You said the following, implying that you believe government to be more effective than I claimed it to be

I didn't imply that I believed government to be effective — note the "if" in my statement:
I wrote:
If the regulations are meaningful and effectively address the issue neither business nor the public will be able to continue operating in the same manner.

I never claimed government was acting this way, I merely held it out as a possibility. A possibility I doubt will occur:
Quote:
But I don't ever expect to see that sort of policy.


There's no reason for you to be so dismissive of my response. I actually agree with some of what you have to say.

livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 01:27 pm
@hightor,
hightor wrote:

Quote:
You said the following, implying that you believe government to be more effective than I claimed it to be

I didn't imply that I believed government to be effective — note the "if" in my statement:
I wrote:
If the regulations are meaningful and effectively address the issue neither business nor the public will be able to continue operating in the same manner.

I never claimed government was acting this way, I merely held it out as a possibility. A possibility I doubt will occur:
Quote:
But I don't ever expect to see that sort of policy.


There's no reason for you to be so dismissive of my response. I actually agree with some of what you have to say.

I'm sorry it came across as dismissive. There are small miscommunications that are frustrating to deal with.

We agree that government won't do what it takes to fix climate; and I hope you also can see how government stimulus and even just stable regulatory frameworks that encourage investment only promote more unsustainable economic activities.

If you look at the trade war currently going on, you will see that global investment regimes are angered by the difficulties in planning their economic activities within a unpredictable regulatory environment.

That means that government enables them to stabilize markets for the sake of trade, and then they try to maximize revenues in every way they can. That is causing climate change and unsustainability.

For climate reform to happen, something fundamental about economic expectations has to change. People have to expect less money, less consumption, public transportation instead of personal motor-vehicles, etc. Until it does, government is part of the problem, not the solution.
0 Replies
 
RABEL222
 
  2  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2020 06:19 pm
Is it surprising That all the climate change deniers live on high ground?
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 27 Jan, 2020 09:06 am
@RABEL222,
New Jersey to Become First State to Make Builders Consider Climate Change

The move is part of an effort by states to counteract the Trump administration’s rollback of environmental regulations.

Quote:
New Jersey will become the first state to require that builders take into account the impact of climate change, including rising sea levels, in order to win government approval for projects, Gov. Philip D. Murphy plans to announce on Monday.

The move by Mr. Murphy, a Democrat, is part of a widening effort by states to use regulations to address worsening climate conditions and to aggressively counteract the Trump administration’s push to roll back environmental regulations.

“This is not abstract for us,” Mr. Murphy said in an interview. “This is real. The dangers are there.”

New Jersey’s initiative is believed to be the broadest, and most specific, attempt to leverage land-use rules to control where and what developers can build, and to limit the volume of emissions that are spewed into the air.

... ... ...
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jan, 2020 05:29 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

New Jersey to Become First State to Make Builders Consider Climate Change

The move is part of an effort by states to counteract the Trump administration’s rollback of environmental regulations.

Quote:
New Jersey will become the first state to require that builders take into account the impact of climate change, including rising sea levels, in order to win government approval for projects, Gov. Philip D. Murphy plans to announce on Monday.

The move by Mr. Murphy, a Democrat, is part of a widening effort by states to use regulations to address worsening climate conditions and to aggressively counteract the Trump administration’s push to roll back environmental regulations.

“This is not abstract for us,” Mr. Murphy said in an interview. “This is real. The dangers are there.”

New Jersey’s initiative is believed to be the broadest, and most specific, attempt to leverage land-use rules to control where and what developers can build, and to limit the volume of emissions that are spewed into the air.

... ... ...


The question is why they don't also require more incorporation of living, CO2-absorbing soil and trees into land-use codes.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jan, 2020 01:18 pm
@livinglava,
the lands being slowly inundted are also causing the newly planted trees (the banks ner Avalon) to drown. An entire area around Salem NJ is overlying deep sand reav=ches in which entire forests were inundated and logged out after the 1850;s. Replanting has been a false hope because the salt water weges underlying the fresh ground water has forced the ground water to rise .

Delaware used to hve an effective "Coastal Zoning ACt" which was supposed to consider inundation due to Climte Change. This went into effect in the late 70's and the Developers fought is and , because they hired and paid for a lot of the hillbilly state legislators, they got their way. Delaware is now built up to the shoreline and almost as densely as NJ. A good storm will happen within my lifetime and wipe away many houses, but the developer will still come back and build.
I feel that, before we get too fancy about what trees to plnt qnd what riprin zones, we should make laws that say,
"If your house gets swept in a storm once, insurance will cover. If it gets swept twice, we aint payin you squat. Ya wanna rebuild, its your personal nickel. I feel that insurance is too accessible .
 

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