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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 11:55 am
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

livinglava wrote:
Think of it this way: if journals were rejecting articles containing data supporting climate change theory, there would be people online doing what you are doing, only the other way around. They would be saying that the journals are biased and that they should publish dissenting views.

They would be right to complain.

Maybe, but my point is that it wouldn't solve anything. You would just end up with more debate among factions that are politically motivated to subvert any discourse that trends toward the view they oppose.

Quote:

I have not expressed such a view and do not hold such a view.

For the record, I don't hold any view at all on this issue besides the view that we should not trust the claims of bogus science.

How can you question science and/or discern when science is 'bogus,' without having some understanding of what would make science legitimate?

Quote:
livinglava wrote:
What is needed is substantial discussion of why/how climate works, not discussion about the politics of journalistic bias for or against a certain theory of climate.

What we need are reliable facts based on sound science.

You post a superficial soundbite in response to something substantial that I said? Why? What does your response add? You think using the adjective 'reliable' to 'facts,' and 'sound' to 'science' makes makes your POV seem stronger?

Quote:
Unfortunately we are not going to get that. But that doesn't mean we should trust the bogus claims of the climate hucksters.

You need to start studying basic science and formulate some idea of what legitimate science would include and what it would not. You may be right that there is bogus science, but then you have to have a way of evaluating it besides just deeming it 'bogus' because some journal editors are politically biased.
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 12:05 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

There is no reason to think that the scientists whose data is being suppressed have any motivation other than good science.

Of course there is. People are human and thus subject to biases and temptations beyond selfless submission to the pursuit of pure truth. The fact that our legal system requires we treat people as innocent until proven guilty doesn't mean that they really are.

Quote:
livinglava wrote:
Regardless of some people's motives, the goal should be to gain at least an understanding of the basic relationship between energy and carbon in generating a biosphere of ecosystems and the fossil fuels that form from their sediments.

Not possible without good data.

You have the data already. Look at the entire surface of the Earth and all the carboniferous organisms of the biosphere. Look at how they function, where they get their energy, and how their droppings contain fats/oils that contain energy stored in carbon-compounds. Look at how sediments build up underground as fossil fuels. That is all the data you need to assess the energy supply-chain that connects the sun to the deeper Earth.


Quote:
livinglava wrote:
Then you need to sit down and learn how energy works, how living things that make up ecosystems are made up of carbon, how energy from the sun is taken up by those organisms and ecosystems, and how their dropping sediment over time to build up as fossil fuels.

I perceive no such need.

Thermodynamics, i.e. energy science, is the basis for science. Even motion is just another form of energy. If you don't have any understanding of energy in all its forms, then how can you even begin to decipher good science from bad science?


Quote:
livinglava wrote:
Once you understand the basics, you may have reason to debate about climate, but until then you just have no idea what you're talking about.

That is incorrect. My point about bad data is well grounded in fact.

How is that possible?

Quote:
livinglava wrote:
All you probably know is that you like industrial economics and consumerisms and you are afraid it is being threatened by climate science politics.

I know that climate change journals are suppressing data and skewing the results.

Lies are data. Slander is data. Fake news is data. You could say that all publications that reject lies, slander, and fake news are 'suppressing data.' That doesn't mean they should publish lies, slander, and fake news, though, does it?

Quote:

All I want to do is disregard unreliable data.

That what you are criticizing journals for doing when they 'suppress data and skew results.'

oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 12:53 pm
@livinglava,
livinglava wrote:
How can you question science and/or discern when science is 'bogus,' without having some understanding of what would make science legitimate?

When you see legitimate science being blocked from publication because progressives find the data inconvenient, you know that the data is being skewed.


livinglava wrote:
You post a superficial soundbite in response to something substantial that I said?

The need for reliable data is not superficial. Accurate conclusions cannot be arrived at without accurate data.


livinglava wrote:
You need to start studying basic science and formulate some idea of what legitimate science would include and what it would not. You may be right that there is bogus science, but then you have to have a way of evaluating it besides just deeming it 'bogus' because some journal editors are politically biased.

I do not agree that I need to do this.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 12:54 pm
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
pretty much any of your posts proves farmer is right

Wrong again. You cannot provide any examples of farmerman pointing out any errors in my posts.

Farmerman is all talk. Just like you, he cannot back up any of his claims.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 12:57 pm
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:
In other words, you want to ignore everything that does not support your ideological bias.

No. I ignore biased and unreliable data.


MontereyJack wrote:
And unfortunately the mountains of accurate data do not support your ideological bias.

No accurate data exists. It's all been cherry picked.

Not to mention the fact that I have no ideological bias on this issue. I merely ask for conclusions to be based on sound science.

Unless maybe a demand for accurate facts could be deemed an "anti-progressive bias" because of the way progressives hate facts and reality.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 12:58 pm
@livinglava,
livinglava wrote:
Of course there is.

No there isn't. You are slandering good scientists who are striving to produce reliable data.


livinglava wrote:
You have the data already.

That is incorrect. There is no reliable data to be had since the journals are cherry picking it.


livinglava wrote:
If you don't have any understanding of energy in all its forms, then how can you even begin to decipher good science from bad science?

When I see data being censored because people don't like what it says, I know that the result is bad science.


livinglava wrote:
How is that possible?

Because it is a fact that journals are censoring data that they find inconvenient.


livinglava wrote:
Lies are data. Slander is data. Fake news is data. You could say that all publications that reject lies, slander, and fake news are 'suppressing data.' That doesn't mean they should publish lies, slander, and fake news, though, does it?

No. But it doesn't change the fact that scientists should be allowed to publish accurate data without being censored.


livinglava wrote:
That what you are criticizing journals for doing when they 'suppress data and skew results.'

No. I am criticizing them for disregarding reliable data.
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 02:34 pm
@Olivier5,
This surprises you? This has been going on since the 1930 when the cigarette companies declared cigarettes a health substance.
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 02:35 pm
Conservative States Seek Billions to Brace for Disaster. (Just Don’t Call It Climate Change.)
Quote:
[...]
The Trump administration is about to distribute billions of dollars to coastal states mainly in the South to help steel them against natural disasters worsened by climate change.

But states that qualify must first explain why they need the money. That has triggered linguistic acrobatics as some conservative states submit lengthy, detailed proposals on how they will use the money, while mostly not mentioning climate change.

A 306-page draft proposal from Texas doesn’t use the terms “climate change” or “global warming,” nor does South Carolina’s proposal. Instead, Texas refers to “changing coastal conditions” and South Carolina talks about the “destabilizing effects and unpredictability” of being hit by three major storms in four years, while being barely missed by three other hurricanes.

Louisiana, a state taking some of the most aggressive steps in the nation to prepare for climate change, does include the phrase “climate change” in its proposal in one place, an appendix on the final page.
[...]
The housing department has itself been careful about how it described the program’s goals. When HUD in August released the rules governing the money, it didn’t use the terms “climate change” and “global warming” but referred to “changing environmental conditions.”

Still, the rule required states that received money to describe their “current and future risks.” And when those risks included flooding — the most costly type of disaster nationwide — states were instructed to account for “continued sea level rise,” which is one consequence of global warming.
... ... ...
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 02:45 pm
@oralloy,
so you slander the thousands of scientists who have done the good science that does in fact eshow cc is real because you believe in what amounts to a conspiracy theory.
oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 02:47 pm
@MontereyJack,
No conspiracy theory. Climate journals have been caught censoring data.
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 03:03 pm
@oralloy,
yes cons[iracy t5heory. ghe rejectenyion it wassupression is pure suppositiond article was weak and its cpnclusion we invalidated by subsequwent research. the denialist contention nywas really supressiion is pure malignant suppositionsupposition , not fact. the article was correctly turned down. it was weak science.
oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 03:09 pm
@MontereyJack,
There was nothing weak about the article. It was merely inconvenient to the progressive narrative.

I doubt that you can cite any subsequent research that invalidates the article. But even if such research did happen, the possibility of being challenged by future research is not justification for refusing to publish an article.
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 03:15 pm
@oralloy,
pure erroneous supposition. no valid facts.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 03:16 pm
@MontereyJack,
No error and no supposition. It is a fact that climate journals have been caught red handed refusing to publish valid data that is inconvenient to progressives and their doomsday narrative.
0 Replies
 
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 04:54 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

When you see legitimate science being blocked from publication because progressives find the data inconvenient, you know that the data is being skewed.

Look, I understand your concern but my concern is that there are people who are only interested in debating endlessly about climate science in order to avoid making the sacrifices it takes to restore natural climate.

The sacrifices I am talking about are not lives but lifestyles. People don't want to change their lifestyles to restore the proper amount of organic life to the biosphere.

There are many ways to restore life to the land that don't reduce the food supply. Reforestation can take the form of orchards the produce food. Meat substitutes provide the same protein and nutrition as dead animal carcasses. Transit and responsible development can provide just as much economic opportunity as everyone driving around on multilane roads and highways to park in parking lots wherever they go.


Quote:
livinglava wrote:
You post a superficial soundbite in response to something substantial that I said?

The need for reliable data is not superficial. Accurate conclusions cannot be arrived at without accurate data.

That is an obvious and superficial thing to say.

Quote:
livinglava wrote:
You need to start studying basic science and formulate some idea of what legitimate science would include and what it would not. You may be right that there is bogus science, but then you have to have a way of evaluating it besides just deeming it 'bogus' because some journal editors are politically biased.

I do not agree that I need to do this.

You can't solve bias in scientific discourse with only discursive politics. The only way to solve bias in science is to learn enough science to actually weigh in on what is biased and why/how, and what the implications are on different levels. To do that, you need to understand at least the basics of science.
0 Replies
 
livinglava
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Jan, 2020 05:05 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:

livinglava wrote:
You have the data already.

That is incorrect. There is no reliable data to be had since the journals are cherry picking it.

Journals are just academic discussions and reports about what academicians are doing with their time.

The data I am talking about is basic and observable to you or anyone else with eyes and exposure to documentary footage of the various ecosystems around the world. It is all made out of carbon and energy. Likewise, all the fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas are made of carbon and energy. It is obvious that they form from biological sediments over long spans of geological time. These are not disputed claims. They are basic and I cannot understand how you can presume to understand scientific discourse without knowing the difference between the most basic level of knowledge and what issues get disputed at the level of periodical journals.

Quote:
livinglava wrote:
If you don't have any understanding of energy in all its forms, then how can you even begin to decipher good science from bad science?

When I see data being censored because people don't like what it says, I know that the result is bad science.

Ok, I'm starting to get that I have to just stop replying to your posts because you are not going to respond to what I say except to continue re-asserting the same discourse-level arguments that are totally devoid of anything regarding the scientific content of the discourse you are claiming is censored and biased.

You are right that there is bias and censorship, but if you don't go beyond that, you're not contributing anything to moving forward with better discourse.

Quote:

Because it is a fact that journals are censoring data that they find inconvenient.

Don't you see that if you win, all that will happen is people will deny climate change and mock it so that they can ignore the need to restore natural climate?

Quote:

No. But it doesn't change the fact that scientists should be allowed to publish accurate data without being censored.

Nothing stops anyone from publishing anything in the age of internet. We can publish whatever we want right here in this discussion forum. What you want is to require journals to allow dissenting voices into their forums, which may be legitimate, but it has the adverse effect of allowing politically-motivated BSers to undermine legitimate discourse.

Quote:

No. I am criticizing them for disregarding reliable data.

Claiming data is 'reliable' is meaningless. Who decides which data is reliable and which isn't? Science is supposed to be repeatable but we don't have the ability to repeat everything we read about. You just have to tentatively accept what you read without dismissing the possibility that it is wrong for some reason or other, e.g. because of bias at the level of the research and/or the publication.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 05:01 am
Intense floods and storms around the world could double in frequency within 13 years, as climate breakdown and socioeconomic factors combine, according to a new study.

The authors of the analysis say it’s the first to incorporate historical local and global climate data and information about population density, income and poverty to estimate how many hard-hitting disasters to expect. They counted floods and storms that would affect 1,000 people or kill 100 people.

Broadly, the researchers also see governments around the world as critically unprepared. The authors found very high risks for countries such as Australia, Bangladesh and China. Risks are highest for countries that are already seeing far more extreme events than the global average.

The study is published in the peer-reviewed Climate, Disaster and Development Journal.

Impacts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions on Global Intense Hydrometeorological Disasters
Quote:
Abstract: This research explains the factors that contribute to the global increase in the frequency of intense hydrometeorological disasters, particularly those related to floods and storms. It describes how the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) accumulation and its associated changes in climatic patterns contribute to the increased frequency of these intense events. The novelty of this study lies in how climate effects are examined within a socioeconomic framework that includes factors that turn natural hazards into intense disasters. These factors include people’s increasing exposure and their vulnerability to these hazards.

This study uses climate data from 155 countries, with a period spanning 46 years (1970–2016). It adopts a statistical and econometric approach, instead of climate models, to assess the factors that have contributed to the increase in the frequency of intense flood and storm events. The findings show that in addition to socioeconomic factors, the continuous increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the past four decades is significantly correlated with the increase in the number of extreme flood and storm events. Moreover, the results show that global climate conditions significantly affect the frequency of these disasters.

The estimates in this study further suggest that if current trends in environmental degradation and CO2 accumulation remain unchecked, then the frequency of intense hydrometeorological disasters would increase. Our results also highlight the link between climate change and natural hazards, and support the broader pathways between climate hazards and socioeconomic variables traced by Mora et al. (2018). This scenario is a ground for the immediate implementation of adaptation measures and for taking strong mitigation measures to reverse runaway climate change.
blatham
 
  0  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 06:01 am
@RABEL222,
Quote:
This has been going on since the 1930 when the cigarette companies declared cigarettes a health substance.
One has to be of a certain age to recall the many TV cigarette ads featuring a man in a white lab coat sitting on the edge of his office desk and with a stethoscope around his neck saying:

"That's why we doctors recommend Salem"
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 06:04 am
@Walter Hinteler,
The consequences of this in terms of climate-forced migration truly scares the hell out of me. The modern tendencies we see towards authoritarian/totalitarian "solutions" are surely only going to get worse, perhaps very much worse.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2020 06:10 am
@blatham,
Quote:
What this would all mean in terms of human pain and suffering ought to be enough to make us want to avoid these thresholds at all cost. Heat waves, droughts, and other forms of extreme weather will increase in frequency and severity. Agriculture will become less reliable and suffer declining yields. Rising sea-levels will mean the submersion of many coastal regions. Accustomed to the relatively stable climate that prevailed during the “Holocene,” the geological epoch since the last ice age, our societies will buckle under the new conditions created by our experiment with fossil fuels. Skirmishes, if not outright wars, will result over arable land and dwindling fresh-water reserves, and mass migration from the parched climates around the Equator will provoke nationalist backlashes in the habitable parts of the world. All against a backdrop of raging wildfires. A grim future indeed.

Most discussions of the environmental crisis stop there, however. We then go on to demand an end to fossil-fuel extraction and the redoubling of efforts to convert our economies to renewable forms of energy. Initiatives such as the Green New Deal express a growing sentiment that the private sector will not by itself “transition” its practices, let alone those of our society as a whole, toward a more sustainable energy system. If anything, the opposite is the case: the revelation that oil multinationals such as Exxon Mobile have for decades known of the ruinous effects of greenhouse gas emissions has justified the suspicion that liberal politics-as-usual will not suffice. With good reason, we now talk of the need for a full-scale social “mobilization” of the kind we engaged in to fight World War II.

(...)

“I don’t believe in it for one instant,” he [Yves Cochet, environmental minister under Lionel Jospin] said. Efforts such as the Green New Deal suffer ultimately “from the technological illusion. It’s the Californian technological dream in disguise.”

nyrb
 

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