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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
okie
 
  0  
Reply Thu 28 Jan, 2010 02:43 pm
More fraud uncovered from the global warming / sky is falling farce. It turns out that the 40% estimate of a rain forest being endangered by global warming was based upon nothing but partisan political speculation by a global warming green activist. Apparently no science involved. Climategate continues to expand.

www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/28/save-rainforest-climate-change-scandal-chopped-facts/

"In the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), issued in 2007 by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), scientists wrote that 40 percent of the Amazon rainforest in South America was endangered by global warming.

But that assertion was discredited this week when it emerged that the findings were based on numbers from a study by the World Wildlife Federation that had nothing to do with the issue of global warming -- and that was written by a freelance journalist and green activist."

0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Jan, 2010 05:32 pm
@georgeob1,
This thread happens to be about global warming however.
parados
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Jan, 2010 05:53 pm
@parados,
By the way okie.. here is a scientific study of those sites you keep claiming have to be wrong

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/menne-etal2010.pdf
Quote:
Nevertheless, the adjusted USHCN temperatures are extremely well aligned with recent measurements from instruments whose exposure characteristics meet the highest standards for climate monitoring.
In summary, we find no evidence that the CONUS temperature trends are inflated due to poor station siting.


Quote:
the USHCN adjusted data averaged over the CONUS are well aligned with the averages derived from the USCRN for the past five years.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Thu 28 Jan, 2010 06:31 pm
@parados,
Typical pedantic defense.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Thu 28 Jan, 2010 07:39 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, more than 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
354
Geologist Dr. Al Pekarek, professor of geology, earth and atmospheric sciences at St. Cloud State University, ridicules man-made global warming fears as a "media circus." "Climate is a very complex system, and anyone who claims we know all there is to know about it, let's say, is charitably misinformed or chooses to be," Pekarek said according to a September 7, 2007 article. "We fool ourselves if we think we have a sufficiently well-understood model of the climate that we can really predict. We can't," he explained. "Geologists know that the Earth's climate has done this all the time in its history. We also know that man has not been around very long and could not have caused that. So we know that there are many natural forces that have caused our climate to change," he continued. "Those of us who don't jump on the bandwagon - we're called deniers and Hitlers and I don't know what all else. Some of us have been threatened - I think some with their life, but more it's trying to destroy our reputations," Pekarek added. He also pulled no punches in criticizing former Vice President Al Gore's documentary An Inconvenient Truth, calling the film "a total misrepresentation of science." He dismissed computer model fears of a climate doomsday. "It's an abuse of science. They are misquoting science. They are misusing science. They are making predictions of dire consequences in the name of science that will not come true, and science will lose its credibility," he explained. "In some of our schools, we are scaring the hell out of our kids. ... They think they have no future," he said. "In 10 years, you won't hear anything about global warming," he concluded. (LINK)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Jan-Dec Global Mean Temperature over Land & Ocean
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2009
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2009
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 10:39 am
@parados,
Interesting, Parados, but I think even more damning for your argument.
I have quoted below from the conclusion of the study. I don't know if you read the article, Parados, but I did read a little of it, enough I think to capture the general conclusion of it. Here is my take on it. They admit the siting of weather stations are poor and are delivering bad data, and further they admit the organization surfacestations.org has indeed documented the problems rather significantly. They then go into their song and dance about how they can allow for and correct for the errors, which I think is an exercise of CYA rather than anything resembling sound science. Would any sane scientist continue to use flawed instruments for measuring a scientific phenomena, even after that scientist was made fully aware of the inaccuracies and bias, even years upon years of collecting further bad data? Would a sane scientist even begin to claim that it would be sensible to claim that he could crank in some kind of correction factor based upon some very questionable assumptions? I do not believe a credible or sane scientist would do that, but that is exactly what this bunch has attempted to do with this opinion or study. In my opinion, it only further erodes their credibility more and more. The only way they will be able to salvage any credibility whatsoever is to finally admit the whole thing is a farce and start over, start over with some credible weather stations that will deliver sound and reliable data based upon some credible siting and equipment standards.

Parados, remember, we are not talking about several degrees, we are talking about global warmers making grand and sweeping pronouncements about temperature, its cause, and their solutions, based upon only a fraction of a degree, and here we have absolute open / shut proof that the entire scenario is based upon bad or fraudulant data that may be off more than one degree, perhaps 5 degrees or more, data that they are claiming can be explained away by cranking in factors that will adjust the data accurately to a fraction of one degree. It is an absolute farce, Parados.

"5. Conclusion
Given the now extensive documentation by surfacestations.org (Watts [2009]) that the
exposure characteristics of many USHCN stations are far from ideal, it is reasonable to question the role that poor exposure may have played in biasing CONUS temperature trends."

......

"Indeed, our analysis does provide evidence of bias in poor exposure sites relative to good exposure sites; however, given the evidence provided by surfacestations.org that poor exposure sites are predominantly MMTS sites, this bias is........"
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 10:58 am
@parados,
parados wrote:
Yes, and the sun will go supernova at some point too. What's your point rosborne?

My point is that it doesn't matter if we stop producing CO2 or not, the same cycle is going to repeat itself. Isn't it obvious. This entire global, political, scientific debate is academic.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 11:08 am
@rosborne979,
rosborne979 wrote:

parados wrote:
Yes, and the sun will go supernova at some point too. What's your point rosborne?

My point is that it doesn't matter if we stop producing CO2 or not, the same cycle is going to repeat itself. Isn't it obvious. This entire global, political, scientific debate is academic.



We don't know for a fact that this is true. It behooves us to exercise caution when playing with our life-support system.

Cycloptichorn
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 11:20 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
We don't know for a fact that this is true. It behooves us to exercise caution when playing with our life-support system.

In the strictest sense we don't know anything for a fact and never will. But the ice-core history is very clear and very regular.

Do you really believe that if we were to stop producing CO2 today (not that we even can), that the ice-core cycles won't simply repeat itself again? There is no reason whatsoever to think that the natural cycles we've seen over the past several hundred thousand years aren't still happening.

And conversely, if we went hell bent for leather trying to *increase* CO2 (which is pretty much what we're doing, although accidentally) to prevent another ice-age, do you really think that we could alter the atmosphere enough to counteract the natural forces which cause the temperature collapse?

Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 11:29 am
@rosborne979,
rosborne979 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:
We don't know for a fact that this is true. It behooves us to exercise caution when playing with our life-support system.

In the strictest sense we don't know anything for a fact and never will. But the ice-core history is very clear and very regular.

Do you really believe that if we were to stop producing CO2 today (not that we even can), that the ice-core cycles won't simply repeat itself again? There is no reason whatsoever to think that the natural cycles we've seen over the past several hundred thousand years aren't still happening.

And conversely, if we went hell bent for leather trying to *increase* CO2 (which is pretty much what we're doing, although accidentally) to prevent another ice-age, do you really think that we could alter the atmosphere enough to counteract the natural forces which cause the temperature collapse?


Do I believe that our actions could change the balance of the atmosphere enough to either speed up or slow down natural cycles? Of course I do! All life effects the ecosystem around it and we are no different.

In a situation in which we don't know for sure what effects we will have on the ecology, on our life-support system, it pays to be conservative. Global warming or cooling overall is just a small part of the problem; what if we screw with things enough to cause weather pattern changes? That would be devastating to us as a species.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 11:31 am
@okie,
The only thing damning is how you cut your quotes okie.

The piece I cited shows that the error is the OPPOSITE of what it you want it to be. The correction introduces an downward trend error in the data and not an upward error when compared to the really good sites.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 11:32 am
@rosborne979,
rosborne979 wrote:

parados wrote:
Yes, and the sun will go supernova at some point too. What's your point rosborne?

My point is that it doesn't matter if we stop producing CO2 or not, the same cycle is going to repeat itself. Isn't it obvious. This entire global, political, scientific debate is academic.


It's only academic if you want to take the long viewpoint while ignoring any immediate consequences.

It would be like arguing we don't have to apply the brakes in a car speeding toward a cliff because we will all eventually die anyway.
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 12:20 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:
It's only academic if you want to take the long viewpoint while ignoring any immediate consequences.

I see. So you think that some meaningful change can be made in the earth's climate trend over a relatively short period of time, say 100 to 500 years? I'm skeptical of that, but it might be possible.

And you're thinking (maybe) that within 500 years humans will be better able to adapt their civilization to a glaciation? So your intent is to postpone the glaciation event for a few hundred years?

Or are you thinking that we've got even more time to play with before anything dramatic happens? What are your time scales approximately?
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 02:03 pm
@rosborne979,
When has a natural glaciation occurred in a period as short as 500 years?
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 03:23 pm
It was reported in the WSJ article today, page A3, "Slowdown in Warming Linked to Water Vapor!"
Quote:
Climatologists have puzzled over why global temperatures have stayed roughly flat in the past decade, despite a long term warming trend. New research suggests that lower levels of water vapor in the stratosphere may partly explain the anomaly.

The study, appearing in the journal Science, points out that the concentration of water vapor in the stratosphere has dropped about 10% in the past decade, triggered by unexplained cooler temperatures at certain high altitudes above the tropics. The study concludes that in the last decade the decline in the water vapor slowed the rate of rising temperature by about 25%, thus partly negating the heat-trapping effect of increasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

Could it be that decreasing water vapor density in the stratosphere is not the cause of global cooling, but is the effect of global cooling?

Yes, perhaps decreasing water vapor density in the stratosphere is the effect of global cooling, because when the globe cools less water vapor is evaporated from the oceans into the atmosphere.

What then could be causing the global cooling?

Could it be the reduction in the irradiance of the sun over the last 13 years? Hmmmm?
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 05:40 pm
@ican711nm,
Interesting ican since that is the opposite of what Lindzner has been claiming would happen.
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 06:34 pm
@parados,
Quote:
The only shame should be yours for not being able to hold a civil conversation.
Have you abandoned your tactics because I was better than you at insults ? Does it take arrogance or stupidity not to realise you started a slanging match but blame me for it ?
0 Replies
 
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 06:37 pm
@parados,
Quote:
So are you willing to argue that an increase in the high/low for a day in no way reflects an increase in temperature?
Thats right. An increase in a high and a low does not indicate a rise in temp.
Quote:
Are you also willing to argue that it is as likely for the average temperature to be lower as it is higher if the high/low is higher?
Yes it is just as possible.
Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 06:39 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
Please present your evidence, or stop making claims for which you have no supporting evidence.
It was presented. Are we to think that the typical blindness that affects Global Warming Thuggees allows them to see facts ? You cant see it because you dont want to...you find it..it is there.

Ionus
 
  0  
Reply Fri 29 Jan, 2010 06:41 pm
@parados,
Quote:
This thread happens to be about global warming however.
I thought it was about okie and ican as has been stated in the past.
0 Replies
 
 

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