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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jul, 2009 11:35 am
Well of course you don't know, ican. You've demonstrated that repeatedly. NASA and NOAA, however, do know, and as they say repeatedly, the two strongest effects on average temperature change are CO2 accumulation and teh transitory WEATHER phenomena ENSO/elNino. 1998 was the strongest el Nino on record, hence the high. 2008 was a pretty strong la Nina, hence the low. Take a look at the Hadcrut data you posted a few pages back. Notice the correlations: transitory high--el Nino year. Transitory low--la Nina year. When Nino/Nina pass, the global temp reverts toward the (rising)mean.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jul, 2009 12:19 pm
1898, incidentally, was a la Nina year
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jul, 2009 01:33 pm
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:

1898, incidentally, was a la Nina year


What evidence do you have that it affected the mean temperatures of the Earth?

Quote:
Winter temperatures with El Nino conditions tend to be warmer than usual from Washington and northern Oregon across the northern tier to Montana, and also along the West Coast. Conversely, cooler than normal temperatures are seen in the far southeastern portion of the West, especially in southeastern New Mexico.


The reverse occurs in La Ninas which appear to be less common than El Ninos.
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/ensofaq.html

But wouldn't the different effects occur over the planet with warmer and cooler evident in each cycle?
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jul, 2009 01:57 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, more than 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
294
Chemical Engineer Dr. Tony Burns of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia expressed skepticism of man-made global warming. "The common viewpoint is that man-made carbon dioxide is to blame, but the Earth has been through ice ages and periods of global warming for millions of years," Burns wrote in an April 2006 essay. "As recently as 1,000 years ago, the Earth was a degree warmer in the ‘Medieval Warm Period' and the Vikings could grow crops in Greenland," Burns explained. "No one questions how this could happen so many years before our recent fuel consumption excesses. No one questions why man-made carbon dioxide would have any effect on global warming when it constitutes less than 1 percent of greenhouse gases (the major greenhouse gas is water vapor). No one questions the recent Antarctic ice cores from Dome Concordia, with ice up to 700,000 years old, which show increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration occurring about 1,000 years after global temperature rises, thus suggesting that high carbon dioxide levels are a result of global warming, not a cause," he added. Burns decried the demonization of climate skeptics. "In 1633, opposition to the common viewpoint could mean death. This was the case with Galileo when he proposed that the Earth revolved around the sun. He was tried for heresy. Of course things are different today. People who question dogma are no longer burnt at the stake. Instead, they're branded as having suspect motives, as reactionaries or simply as nutcases," he concluded. (LINK)

ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jul, 2009 03:21 pm
@ican711nm,
Perhaps the intensity of the sun's irradiation has something to do with global warming: the more the sun's irradiation, the warmer the average annual global temperature; the less the sun's irradiation, the cooler the average annual global temperature.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2008

http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611 t0 2001

http://biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_is_Actually_Increasing.html
Solar Irradiance 2001 t0 2008 in Watts per square Meter
2001 1366.40
2002 1366.37
2003 1366.07
2004 1365.91
2005 1365.81
2006 1365.72
2007 1365.66
2008 1365.60*
*estimated

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png
CO2 Atmospheric Density Trend 1958-2008

ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jul, 2009 03:42 pm
@ican711nm,
It is a fact that during the specific 90 year period, 1908 to 1998, CAD increased, SI increased, AoAAGT increased, and AAGT increased. It is also a fact that during the specific 11 year period, 1998 to 2008, CAD increased, SI decreased, AoAAGT decreased, and AAGT decreased. Because of these facts, SI increases and decreases are likely to be the major causes of AoAAGT and AAGT increases and decreases, and CAD increases are likely to be minor, if not negligible, causes of increases of AoAAGT and AAGT.

Where:
CAGT = CENTURY AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE,1901-2000, in °K = 287.06°K
AAGT= ANNUAL AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE in °K
AoAAGT = ANOMALIES of AAGT = AAGT - CAGT in °K
AAGT = CAGT + AoAAGT
CAD = CO2 ATMOSPHERIC DENSITY in PPM
SI = SOLAR IRRADIANCE in W/M^2
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jul, 2009 04:26 pm
@parados,
Quote:

http://unabridged.merriam-webster.com/cgi-bin/unabridged?va=parados&x=30&y=8
Main Entry: pa·ra·do
Pronunciation Guide
Pronunciation: prä()d, -r(-
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): -s
Etymology: modification of French parade -- more at PARADE
1 obsolete : PARADE
2 : a boastful swaggering air

0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 01:44 pm
@Foxfyre,
Still considering MJ's take on this versus mine, and the big picture overall:

Quote:
Jul 28, 2009
Central Chicago Sees Coldest July In 67 Years
Average Temperature Only 68.9 Degrees
CHICAGO (CBS)

Have you left your air conditioner in the closet this summer, and worn long pants more often than shorts? If so, you may not be surprised to find out that Chicago is seeing its coldest July in more than 65 years.

The National Weather Service says 2009 has seen the coldest July since the official recording station was moved away from the lakefront in 1942. The average temperature this month in Chicago has been a mere 68.9 degrees.

Even in the years before 1942, when the National Weather Service recorded temperatures at the cooler lakefront, there are only three years that had colder Julys through the 26th.

There have also been far more days than usual with high temperatures less than 80 degrees this year. In 2009, there were 13 days where the temperature did not exceed 80 degrees. Only three Julys in the past 67 years have had more days in Chicago with highs less than 80 " there were 18 such days in 1992, and 14 in 1996 and 2000.
http://cbs2chicago.com/local/chicago.coldest.july.2.1103959.html


Conversely, over the weekend they were predicting a strong high pressure ridge to develop over the Pacific Northwest with accompanying record high temperatures for a few days.

Look for the AGW religionists to point to both anomalies as evidence of global warming, and with nary a suggestion that such anomalies might possibly cancel each other out on a global scale.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 02:23 pm
We've got here - this year - a typical summer like it should be in Central Europe, sunny, rainy, windy, hot, colder.
So people complain about it.

It's - according to weather data - about 2°C warmer than it was in the 60's.
But in those days people didn't complain as much as this year, a study found out. The reason seems to be quite simple: summer = holidays = warm = free time. In many (the most populous) states, however, this year's holidays were very early - and the most warm and sunny days were during the week.


But the data are there ..... and the harvest is two to three weeks earlier than usually - a picture outside, you usually only see around August 10 and later.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 02:31 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
And Iceland and Central England have recently been experiencing unusuallycold winters and summers. It should give us reason to at least consider whether such anomalies have always been the case on Planet Earth and whether they do indeed mostly cancel each other out on the grand scale of things.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 02:45 pm
Ah, yes, how could I forget Central England

Mean Central England Temperature, 2009
http://i25.tinypic.com/5n90m9.jpg

And Iceland?
Quote:
Iceland enjoys a much milder climate than its name and location adjacent to the Arctic circle would imply.


The data are here
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 05:14 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

Quote:
While pointing out that Politifact said that and not me, I agree that it is not only disingenous but I think it is most probably hugely dishonest, either intentionally or out of tunnel-visioned ignorance.


Look Foxy--forget about who said what. Anybody who reads the thread with interest knows it wasn't you who said that. And what do you care about those who don't?

It was worse than dishonest. It was an insult to your intelligence. And it was your administration. Your top brass.

And next news there's another speech about developing your full potential. As dimwits presumably.


Or in the proper context of this thread, dimmer bulbs in your chandelier.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 05:15 pm
As a follow up to a brief discussion last week:

Quote:
nation and world
HFCs did their job, doing another
By The Washington Post
Posted: 07/21/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT

This is not the funny kind of irony: Scientists say the chemicals that helped solve the last global environmental crisis " the hole in the ozone layer " are making the current one worse.

The chemicals, called hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, were introduced widely in the 1990s to replace ozone-depleting gases used in air conditioners, refrigerators and insulating foam.

They worked: Earth's protective shield seems to be recovering. But researchers say what's good for ozone is bad for climate change. These chemicals act like "super" greenhouse gases, with a heat-trapping power that can be 4,470 times that of carbon dioxide.

Now, scientists say, the world must find replacements for the replacements " or these super-emissions could cancel out other efforts to stop global warming.

"Whatever targets you thought you were going to make," said David Fahey, a physicist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "it will be undermined by the fact that you have . . . additional emissions that you hadn't planned on."
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_12879799?source=rss
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 05:17 pm
@Foxfyre,
Quote:

Look for the AGW religionists to point to both anomalies as evidence of global warming, and with nary a suggestion that such anomalies might possibly cancel each other out on a global scale.


They might cancel each other out. The only way to know for sure is to look at the temperature for the entire globe using the two scientific methods for doing that.

Of course, that would end up pointing out again that the temperature has risen over the last 100 years.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 05:19 pm
@Foxfyre,
Nice to see you think man is causing global warming Fox.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 05:22 pm
@parados,
Except that I don't think that. Do you think that? I thought you at least admitted that most global warming is from natural sources. But are you now saying that man is responsible for it all?

I am open to the possibility that human activity has caused some changes in the Earth's atmosphere/environment/climate whatever. But I am not convinced that it is in a proportion that allows us to effectively analyze whatever variables exist or that there is anything that we can or necessarily should do about it. I am happy to do the best we can to keep unnecessary pollutants and toxins and other substances that seriously disrupt ecology out of the system and to preserve the beauty of the beautiful Earth God gave us.

I am not willing to give up my freedoms, options, choices, opportunities for what has not yet been proved, however.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 05:31 pm
@Foxfyre,
Come on Foxy.. That's ridiculous. It's having it both ways. Being a friend of the earth and a rampant polluter all in one paragraph.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 06:26 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, more than 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

295
Dr. Michael J. Economides, Professor of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Cullen College of Engineering at University of Houston and the author of numerous books and over 50 scientific studies, rejected climate fears. "After a desperate literature search over four years, involving as many as 30 engineering and science graduate students, we have yet to come up with one professional paper that shows a quantitative causality between increased carbon dioxide and enhanced global temperature," Economides, who is a member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, wrote in a April 9, 2007 article in Energy Tribune. "This means there is not one paper in the literature of heat transfer or thermodynamics that shows the physics of global warming in a quantified way, using well-known laws or principles. There are, however, many arm-waving and postulating writings, often in the popular press, all referencing the other ‘hundreds of papers,'" Economides explained. (LINK) & (LINK)

parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 06:36 pm
@ican711nm,
I would like to point out that ican's math is still terrible as 400 is a minority compared to the 1700 and 1100 that signed the following

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/big_picture_solutions/scientists-and-economists.html

http://www.gcrio.org/OnLnDoc/pdf/THE_STATE_OF_CLIMATE_SCIENCE.pdf
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Jul, 2009 06:48 pm
@parados,
Just another evidence that these losers have no logic or simple math ability.
0 Replies
 
 

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