@BillRM,
I was taught that nothing on Earth is lost. It is all recycled in one form or another. I suppose we could manage to ship enough matter into outer space that it would make a difference, but I don't think we're otherwise losing stuff however much we rearrange it.
So, I have faith in humankind that if we run out of one 'raw material', we will have developed a workable substitute or different way of doing things by the time that happens. When butter was severely rationed in WWII, margarine was invented and is now a mult-billion dollar industry. When virtually all available rubber was appropriated for the war effort, we learned how to make vinyl tires. American ingenuity, if not stifled by excessive government mandates and regulations, has always been able to find a solution for virtually every problem thrown at it. If R&D doesn't produce the product they were shooting for, it often produces a product that is useful for something else. Most of the products that we take for granted now did not even exist when I was born.
The thing about computer models, is that we can become to dependent on them. Every now and then I do something that makes an Excel column add incorrectly. Until I learned to check formulas, it took me forever to find an error when that happened because I was so conditioned to trust Excel's addition without question.
Government can help us out by gathering, compiling, and dispensing good information. But government has too long a track record of ineffectiveness, inefficiency, and/or producing unintended bad consequences to be a desirable mechanism for getting things done.