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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 01:57 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
262
Climate scientist Dr. Oliver W. Frauenfeld, a co-author of the 2005 book Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming and a research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Division of Cryospheric and Polar Processes at the University of Colorado, questions the accuracy of climate models. "Without question, much more progress is necessary regarding our current understanding of climate and our abilities to model it. Before we can accurately understand the midlatitudes' response to tropical forcing, the tropical forcings themselves must be identified and understood," Frauenfeld wrote in "Shattered Consensus." Frauenfeld, a Contributing Author to the IPCC Working Group 1 Fourth Assessment Report, added, "Only after we identify these factors and determine how they affect one another, can we begin to produce accurate models. And only then should we rely on those models to shape policy. Until that time, climate variability will remain controversial and uncertain." (LINK)

0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 02:23 pm
http://biocab.org/Amplitude_SI_Lean_s_Database.jpg
http://biocab.org/Amplitude_SI_Lean_s_Database.jpg
FOR THE YEARS 1610-2006
0 Replies
 
Deckland
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 04:52 pm
What the scientists were predicting on Earth Day in 1970, nearly 40 years ago.

Nobel Laureate George Wald said at the time: `Civilisation will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind'.
Another surprising prediction came from ecologist Kenneth Watt who said: `The world has been chilling sharply for about 20 years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but 11 degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age'.
Makes you wonder just how much notice we should be taking of the Earth Day 2009 predictions
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 11:56 pm
@Deckland,
I think it likely that some religious group sometime this year will sell all they own and go sit on a mountain waiting for the certain end of the world. Many are convinced that those who don't heed the warning are headed for hell or at least will suffer great tribulation. Such happens with incomprehensible regularity, and the fact that the world does not end as date after date is set does not seem to deter them.

No more understandable are the AGW religionists who seem to so desperately want humankind to be causing global warming that they will not even look at, much less consider any evidence that points in a different direction. They are not detered as prediction after prediction fails to materialize, and they hold in high contempt any who do not share their convictions. No doubt they are convinced we are all going to hell too and it is their duty to see to it that we suffer great tribulation in the meantime.

But at least the US Congress seems to be cautious re imposing President Obama's request for a brutal cap and trade program, at least for this year:

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/van-hollen-climate-bill-could-wait-2009-04-27.html

Because of the real toll in human suffering, it is tough to hope the recession lingers long enough to make a difference in the next election. But if the current Congress/administration does its worst it has threatened in confiscating the wealth, freedoms, choices, opportunities of the people, the long range toll in human suffering could be much worse. I hope the people remain motivated to turn things around.

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Apr, 2009 12:40 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

I think it likely that some religious group sometime this year will sell all they own and go sit on a mountain waiting for the certain end of the world. Many are convinced that those who don't heed the warning are headed for hell or at least will suffer great tribulation. Such happens with incomprehensible regularity, and the fact that the world does not end as date after date is set does not seem to deter them.


Well, our religious groups - that is the Evangelical/Protestant Church of Germany and the Catholics - spend a lot of time, effort and private money to 'modernise' their churches and parish buildings re climate change and to support groups doing such.
We see it here as part of our Christian conscience to deal that what God had given us.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Apr, 2009 09:17 am
@Walter Hinteler,
That's very nice Walter. Most of our Christian churches here are also environmentally conscious and responsible though I doubt many are AGW religionists.

But what does that have to do with anything I was saying?
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Apr, 2009 10:12 am
@Foxfyre,
That our "religious groups" don't just wait for end due to climate change but act.

We don't see climate change as a religion here like you do. (Actually, no science is thought to be a religion here.) Might be a cultural difference like many others.
Foxfyre
 
  0  
Reply Thu 30 Apr, 2009 12:45 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Oh nobody here thinks of their attitudes toward AGW as a 'religion', but it is their dogma, doctrine, certitude that flies in the face of logic, the mandatory rituals, and the condemnation of heretics demanded by some that makes it so similar to a religion that 'religionists' seems to be the appropriate designation.

Perhaps there is no such thing as metaphorical illustrations in the German culture? That would explain a lot re why you seem to misunderstand what I am saying so often.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 May, 2009 03:03 pm
@Foxfyre,
Well, there are some rather famous Germans who used metaphorical illustrations in the the novels, writings, scripts.
So I'm rather sure that it is to be found in the German culture - we even have it in our language since .... well, some minesingers used it as early as the 11th century.

What obviously is different is that in Europe you don't see "their dogma, doctrine, certitude that flies in the face of logic, the mandatory rituals, and the condemnation of heretics".

That's what many think here to be the description of religion, by the way.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 May, 2009 04:24 pm
It is a fact that during the specific 90 year period,
1908 to 1998, CAD increased, SI increased, AoAAGT
increased, and AAGT increased. It is also a fact that
during the specific 11 year period, 1998 to 2008,
CAD increased, SI decreased, AoAAGT decreased, and
AAGT decreased. Because of these facts, SI increases
and decreases are likely to be the major causes of
AoAAGT and AAGT increases and decreases,
and CAD increases are likely to be minor, if not
negligible, causes of increases of AoAAGT and AAGT.

CAGT = CENTURY AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE,1901-2000, in °K = 287.06°K
AAGT= ANNUAL AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE in °K
AoAAGT = ANOMALIES of AAGT = AAGT - CAGT in °K
AAGT = CAGT + AoAAGT
CAD = CO2 ATMOSPHERIC DENSITY in PPM
SI = SOLAR IRRADIANCE in W/M^2


ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 1 May, 2009 04:28 pm
@ican711nm,
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
263
Geologist David Archibald of Summa Development Limited in Australia wrote a scientific paper titled "Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted Climate Response" in Energy and Environment in 2006 (LINK) showing that solar cycles are more important than CO2 levels. In a May 2007 updated paper, "The Past and Future of Climate" Archibald predicts an "imminent cooling" by 2030 based on solar cycles states. "Most rural temperature records in the United States were set in the 1930s and 1940s. Greenland had its highest recorded temperatures in the 1930s and has been cooler since," Archibald wrote. "The 1.5° temperature decline from the late 1950s to the mid-70s was due to a weak solar cycle 20 after a strong solar cycle 19," Archibald explains. Archibald also noted that the Medieval Warm Period was originally recognized by the UN IPCC to have been warmer than current temperatures, but it "become inconvenient to the IPCC, so they haven't mentioned it since." Archibald asserted, "Anthropogenic warming is real, it is also miniscule." He explained, "Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased the temperature of the atmosphere by 0.1°." "There is no correlation in the geologic record between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature. The Earth went into an ice age 450 million years ago despite a level of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is ten times what it is today," Archibald wrote. "There are no deleterious consequences of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are wholly beneficial," he added. "Anthropogenic Global Warming is so miniscule that the effect cannot be measured from year to year, and even from generation to generation," he concluded. (LINK)

0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 09:43 am
Quote:

.
.
.
Robert J. Brulle of Drexel University, an expert on environmental communications, said ecoAmerica’s campaign was a mirror image of what industry and political conservatives were doing. “The form is the same; the message is just flipped,” he said. “You want to sell toothpaste, we’ll sell it. You want to sell global warming, we’ll sell that. It’s the use of advertising techniques to manipulate public opinion.”

He said the approach was cynical and, worse, ineffective. “The right uses it, the left uses it, but it doesn’t engage people in a face-to-face manner,” he said, “and that’s the only way to achieve real, lasting social change.”

Frank Luntz, a Republican communications consultant, prepared a strikingly similar memorandum in 2002, telling his clients that they were losing the environmental debate and advising them to adjust their language. He suggested referring to themselves as “conservationists” rather than “environmentalists,” and emphasizing “common sense” over scientific argument.

And, Mr. Luntz and Mr. Perkowitz agree, “climate change” is an easier sell than “global warming.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/02/us/politics/02enviro.html?hp

I agree. All attempts to police speech are counterproductive. Manipulation of the language not only will not help us solve problems but it rubs the wrong way those whom have been the subject of the attempted manipulation .
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:04 am
@hawkeye10,
Not only is adjusting language to be more 'acceptable' insulting to the intelligence of the American people, but it is dishonest. What is intended is what is intended no matter what they call it, and manipulating the language is nothing more than an attempt to better manipulate us.

I feel the same degree of irritation and feel that I am being patronized when original writings are amended to take out all gender specific pronouns lest "women feel marginalized or put down". Give me a break. I wonder how many women are so insecure and fragile that they are incapable of translating a word like "mankind" to mean everybody, not just men?
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:10 am
@Foxfyre,
I am not naive enough to have a problem with manipulation, however if it is done so poorly that the victim feels he is being manipulated then the effort is doomed to failure.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:17 am
@hawkeye10,
The thing is they don't do it poorly. They do it quite cleverly and calculated for maximum effect. There are already millions of sheeple out there firmly convinced that the planet is doomed due to human caused global warming unless we radically change our lifestyle, limit our choices, accept restrictions on our activities, and condone higher taxes and higher costs to combat this. By manipulating the language or approach to be something less obvious, they will no doubt suck in many others who now are on the fence or who recognize the more obvious fraud that exists.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:28 am
@Foxfyre,
Quote:
The thing is they don't do it poorly. They do it quite cleverly and calculated for maximum effect. There are already millions of sheeple out there firmly convinced that the planet is doomed due to human caused global warming unless we radically change our lifestyle, limit our choices, accept restrictions on our activities, and condone higher taxes and higher costs to combat this. By manipulating the language or approach to be something less obvious, they will no doubt suck in many others who now are on the fence or who recognize the more obvious fraud that exists.


My position is that the manipulation is done poorly, though it is done well enough to work on the majority of people because the majority of people are incapable of thinking for themselves. On the other hand the democracy has been largely gutted, the majority have let the ruling elite hijack the strings of power in this society, and until the majority addresses that problem the majority is irrelevant anyways. My concern is the the elite, those who are able to think, are aware of all of the efforts to manipulate the debate on environmental degradation, and have thus been turned off from any effort to form a consensious.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:33 am
@ican711nm,
Because you cherry picked certain years doesn't mean anything other than you cherry picked years ican.

All the below disprove your cherry picked years.
1936 t0 1997 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (61 years)
1937 to 1997 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (60 years)
1947 to 1958 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (11 years)
1947-1998 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (41 years)
1957 top 1969 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (12 years)
1968 to 1983 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (15 years)
1967 to 1984 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (17 years)
1966 to 1985 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (19 years)
1965 to 1986 SI decreased but AAGT increased CAD increased (21 years)
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:36 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn I am rolling on the floor if you are claiming that six million people body heat alone will have any effect on the climate!

We had have swings in climate far greater then anything the climate change people are now forcasting for the last few billion years.

The computer models are as of now worthless and can not be run backward for example the earth system is far to complex for any human computer model to deal with adn likley to remain so far into the future.

We may or may not be having a large scale effect on the climate and that effect may or may not be for the good or the bad overall.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:37 am
@hawkeye10,
Quote:

My position is that the manipulation is done poorly, though it is done well enough to work on the majority of people because the majority of people are incapable of thinking for themselves.

There is a slight problem with your argument hawkeye.
Manipulation means you think the science is being manipulated and yet there is no scientific basis to support that almost ALL the known science is being manipulated. If it WAS being manipulated it would be easy for some bright guy with a little knowledge of calculus to point to that manipulation and yet no bright guy has done that. All we see is things like your article claiming it is manipulation while presenting no real evidence.

Language isn't manipulated by science. They rely on numbers. It is those that rely on language that manipulate. You will notice that your article about manipulation only relies on language. Why is that hawkeye? It seems accusing the other side of manipulation can be as much manipulation as anything else.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 2 May, 2009 10:40 am
@BillRM,
I guess if you want to ignore the projected temperature in 1988 models for what it would be today then you can argue that they can't predict anything. But the 1988 models projected a temperature almost exactly where it is today.

That may or may not have been luck but to claim they can't project anything accurately is to deny what they predicted vs what happened.
 

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