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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Apr, 2009 09:35 pm
@Foxfyre,
"former boss" is still just nothing but BS

Quote:
Dr. Theon appears to have retired from NASA in 1994, some 15 years ago. Until yesterday I had never heard of him (despite working with and for NASA for the last 13 years). His insights into both modelling and publicity appear to date from then, rather than any recent events. He was not Hansen's 'boss' (the director of GISS reports to the director of GSFC, who reports to the NASA Administrator). His "some scientists" quote is simply a smear - which scientists? where? what did they do? what data? what manipulation? This kind of thing plays well with Inhofe et al because it appears to add something to the 'debate', but in actual fact there is nothing here. Just vague, unsubstantiated accusations.

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/so_who_is_john_s_theon.php
So, could you tell us what years Theon was director of GSFC or the NASA administrator?

Maybe we should listen to someone that worked at NASA at the time, namely James Hansen who would have known who his supervisor was..
http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com/2009/02/hansen-strikes-back-more-on-john-s.html
Quote:
John Theon never had any supervisory authority over me.

I remember that he was in the bureaucracy at NASA Headquarters, but I cannot recall having any interactions with him. His claim of association is misleading, to say the least.

What he can legitimately say is that he had a reasonably high position in the Headquarters bureaucracy. A job in that bureaucracy is not considered to be a plum, so we should probably be grateful that somebody is willing to do it, and I don't particularly want to kick the fellow around.


It seems Theon worked in DC while Hansen worked in NYC.

If justifying funding makes someone a "supervisor" then every bean counter in any a corporation would be considered a "supervisor" over the CEO.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Apr, 2009 10:21 pm
I wish I had this much "BS" on my resume:

Quote:
From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXX]
Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:50 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)

Subject: Re: Nice seeing you

Marc, Indeed, it was a pleasure to see you again. I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that Global Warming is man made. A brief bio follows. Use as much or as little of it as you wish.

John S. Theon Education: B.S. Aero. Engr. (1953-57); Aerodynamicist, Douglas Aircraft Co. (1957-58); As USAF Reserve Officer (1958-60),B.S. Meteorology (1959); Served as Weather Officer 1959-60; M.S, Meteorology (1960-62); NASA Research Scientist, Goddard Space Flight Ctr. (1962-74); Head Meteorology Branch, GSFC (1974-76); Asst. Chief, Lab. for Atmos. Sciences, GSFC (1977-78); Program Scientist, NASA Global Weather Research Program, NASA Hq. (1978-82); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch NASA Hq., (1982-91); Ph.D., Engr. Science & Mech.: course of study and dissertation in atmos. science (1983-85); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics, Radiation, & Hydrology Branch, NASA Hq. (1991-93); Chief, Climate Processes Research Program, NASA Hq. (1993-94); Senior Scientist, Mission to Planet Earth Office, NASA Hq. (1994-95); Science Consultant, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (1995-99); Science Consultant Orbital Sciences Corp. (1996-97) and NASA Jet Propulsion Lab., (1997-99).

As Chief of several NASA Hq. Programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research. This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles. I hope that this is helpful.

Best wishes, John
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/01/28/james-hansen-s-former-boss-on-james-hansen.aspx


I can find absolutely nothing to support your assertions that James Theron was not Hansen's supervisor in effect other than unsourced comments in two or three leftwing blogs.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 03:47 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

So specifically what did Monckton advise Ms. Thatcher about? Are you certain that there were no science issues involved whether or not they were political?


"Political issues".

I'm not 100% sure that he hadn't have given any scientific advice. But Thatcher was not only quite educated in science (she studied Natural Sciences, specialising in Chemistry, at Oxford, as you certainly remember) but had a couple of [different] wellknown scientists as advisers. (Thus, she took a totally different approach to climate change as Viscount Monckton did: see e.g. her speech at the Royal Society in 1988. [And this lead the conservatives to name Thatcher to be a Climate Change pioneer.])

[You can easily look that up at the UK government handbook's - should be in any major library.]
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 06:54 am
@Foxfyre,
Funny thing about that resume Fox. At no time does it claim he was the NASA administrator or the director of GSFC.

Perhaps you could point out the Chief of climate process on this chart.
http://sciences.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/SED_orgchart-sm.jpg

http://sciences.gsfc.nasa.gov/organization/

As for Theon's claim that Hansen was never muzzled, it seems the NASA inspector general found
Quote:
Our investigation found that during the fall of 2004 through early 2006, the NASA Headquarters Office of Public Affairs managed the topic of climate change
in a manner that reduced, marginalized, or mischaracterized climate change science made available to the general public through those particular media over which the Office of Public Affairs had control (i.e., news releases and media access).

Quote:
The supporting evidence detailed in this report reveals that climate change scientists and the majority of career Public Affairs Officers strongly believe that the alleged actions taken by senior NASA Headquarters Public Affairs officials intended to systemically portray NASA in a light most favorable to Administration policies at the expense of reporting unfiltered research results. Senior NASA Headquarters Office of Public Affairs officials (political appointees3) deny such actions, claiming that many of the proposed news releases were poorly written or too technical in nature for meaningful broad public dissemination.

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=28174

So.. when you want to talk about politics over science, it isn't Hansen that did that. It was the Bush appointees that were in charge of releasing the information that were found to act in a political fashion.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 07:00 am
@parados,
Here is an even better organizational chart for NASA
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/300630main_Org%20Chart_Agencywide_Nov%202008.pdf

You will notice that the budget management areas under "Institution and Management" are NOT in charge of Goddard but rather Goddard reports to the NASA administration.

While Theon might like to think he had some oversight because he worked on the budget for Goddard it doesn't make him a "supervisor" under any possible meaning of the word.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 02:58 pm
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2008

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png
CO2 Trend 1958-2008

http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg

http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611 t0 2001

It is a fact that during the specific 90 year period,
1908 to 1998, CAD increased, SI increased, A-AAGT
increased, and AAGT increased. It is also a fact that
during the specific 11 year period, 1998 to 2008,
CAD increased, SI decreased, A-AAGT decreased, and
AAGT decreased. Because of these facts, SI increases
and decreases are likely to be the major causes of
A-AAGT and AAGT increases and decreases,
and CAD increases are likely to be minor, if not
negligible, causes of increases of A-AAGT and AAGT.

THEREFORE:
If SI increases over the next 3 years, A-AAGT and AAGT will probably increase over that same period.
If SI continues to decrease over the next 3 years, A-AAGT and AAGT will probably continue to decrease over that same period.


CAGT = CENTURY AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE,1901-2000, in °K = 287.06°K
AAGT= ANNUAL AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE in °K
A-AAGT = ANOMALIES of AAGT = AAGT - CAGT in °K
AAGT = CAGT + A-AAGT
CAD = CO2 ATMOSPHERIC DENSITY in PPM
SI = SOLAR IRRADIANCE in W/M^2

0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 03:16 pm
Ed Miliband in The Times:
Quote:
The biggest barrier to preventing climate change is no longer denial, but defeatism: the technologies are at our disposal or within our grasp. In Washington today, President Obama is hosting negotiators from the major economies, preparing for the global summit on climate change in Copenhagen in December. With international co-operation and political will, we can make the shift to low carbon, protect our energy security and make the world safe from dangerous climate change.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 03:24 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:
we know that SI will increase because it is the start of an upward trend in the cycle.


"upward trend in the cycle"??? What cycle? If it's the 11 year solar cycle you are talking about, then recognize that for the last 8 years, SI has been decreasing.

8 years! That's 8/11 of a solar cycle! That's more than half a solar cycle! That's more than 2/11 more than half a solar cycle!

YEAR… CAD... SI... A-AAGT... AAGT
1987 349.90 1365.79 0.179 287.239
1988 352.16 1366.09 0.180 287.240
1989 353.56 1366.66 0.103 287.163
1990 355.15 1366.56 0.254 287.314
1991 355.91 1366.45 0.212 287.272
1992 356.27 1366.31 0.061 287.121
1993 357.59 1366.04 0.105 287.165
1994 359.65 1365.81 0.171 287.231
1995 361.29 1365.71 0.275 287.335
1996 362.78 1365.62 0.137 287.197
1997 364.89 1365.62 0.351 287.411
1998 367.61 1365.75 0.546 287.606
1999 368.59 1366.11 0.296 287.356
2000 370.33 1366.67 0.270 287.330
2001 371.83 1366.40 0.409 287.469
2002 374.45 1366.37 0.464 287.524
2003 376.71 1366.07 0.473 287.533
2004 378.31 1365.91 0.447 287.507
2005 380.87 1365.81 0.482 287.542
2006 382.64 1365.72 0.422 287.482
2007 384.64 1365.66 0.405 287.465
2008 386.33 1365.60 0.324 287.384
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 05:06 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
261
Dr. Martin Hertzberg, a retired Navy meteorologist with a PhD in physical chemistry, distrusts climate computer models and believes the models do not adequately account for water in the atmosphere. According to the May 14, 2007 issue of The Nation magazine, Hertzberg said water in the form of oceans, snow, ice cover, clouds and vapor "is overwhelming in the radiative and energy balance between the Earth and the sun.... Carbon dioxide and the greenhouse gases are, by comparison, the equivalent of a few farts in a hurricane." The article explained Hertzberg's views: "Water covers 71 percent of Earth's surface. Compared with the atmosphere, there's 100 times more CO2 in the oceans, dissolved as carbonate. As the post-glacial thaw progresses the oceans warm up, and some of the dissolved carbon emits into the atmosphere, like fizz from soda." Hertzberg is quoted saying, "The greenhouse global warming theory has it ass backwards. It is the warming of the Earth that is causing the increase of carbon dioxide and not the reverse." The article noted, "In vivid confirmation of that conclusion, several new papers show that for the last 750,000 years, CO2 changes have always lagged behind global temperatures by 800 to 2,600 years." (LINK) & (LINK)

0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 05:24 pm
@ican711nm,
You post the same information over and over again ican, one would expect you to pick up at least some of it by osmosis.

The TSI 11 year cycle is NOT exactly 11 years. Sometimes it is shorter and sometimes longer. It also does NOT rise for 5.5 years and then fall for 5.5 years. The cycle tends to be a rapid rise before falling off which takes longer.

If you look at the numbers you just posted you will see a 4 year rise followed by a 7 year decrease then a 3 year rise followed by the current 8 year decrease. The cycle is not restricted to calender years.
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 09:00 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:
You post the same information over and over again ican

SO DO YOU!

You post the same falsities over and over again.

I post the same rebuttals to those falsities over and over again.
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 11:53 pm
ican, your rebuttals do not rebut. The falsities are all yours, not parados's. Read the numbers on your own table of SI. The last cycle was NOT 11 years. It was in fact more than 12 (notice the last minimum? 1996? Notice the current minimum? 2008). What is the interval between those, ican? As parados says, the interval is not based on a calendar year. The sun does not care what we do on January 1. Parados is also correct about the behavior of the sun during the solar cycle. SI builds rapidly to a maximum and t hen declines more slowly to the minimum. Look at the graphs of SI of any solar cycles. That IS the way it happens. That is one of the reasons your repeated use of "the specific period 1997-2008" is sheer nonsense and tells us nothing. You cannot determine anything when you use two different points in a cyclic variable. You ignore what the variable does in the interim. You ignore other factors that have been identified as having a major, transietn effect on global temperature. You pick a start point and an endpoint which are effected by the two opposite phases of that major variable which you ignore, and then you purport to tell us something about two other variables/ Further your argument ONLY YIELDS WHAT YOU REGARD AS CONFIRMATION FOR THE SPECIFIC INTERVAL YOU CHERRY PICKED. IT DOES NOT WORK, FOR EXAMPLE, FOR THE ALMOST IDENTICAL INTERVAL 1996-2007. You are, in other words, producing invalid math, invalid science, and sheer nonsense.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Apr, 2009 11:57 pm
I might add that your statement to the effect that changing SI is the only cause of El Nino ENSO variation is sheer nonsense too. Youj pulled it only out of you imagination. I invite you to document it, if you think it has some validity. You have not. ENSO is part of the heat transfer from euqatorial regions to the arctic. It has probably existed as long as the sun has shone on the earth and there has been liquid water. It will exist whether SI changes or not. The heat transfer, incidentally, is what we know as "weather".
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Apr, 2009 07:01 am
@ican711nm,
It's too bad that the facts and figures support what I say and not what you say ican.

How many years did it take to go from min to max in each of the last 3 solar cycles based on your information? I only have to point out what it says. I don't have to post a lot of smoke and BS. You have to make up thing like AAGT and A-AA-GT to try to hide what the actual numbers say. You also don't give the exact sources for your numbers.

You still have not told us where you get TSI from. Please post a link to your source of your numbers.
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Apr, 2009 04:08 pm
@parados,
Parados, I've posted each of these links to my posted numbers, many times:

A-AAGT
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

CAGT: The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature is 13.9°C = 287.06°K (13.9°C + 273.16°K = 287.06°K);
AAGT = A-AAGT +CAGT.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html

CAD
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt

SI
http://biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_is_Actually_Increasing.html

Note that SI for 2008 was projected from SI in 2005, and this graph:
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png

ALSO, I have posted thes links to my posted graphs many times:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2008

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png
CO2 Trend 1958-2008

http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611 t0 2001
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Apr, 2009 05:09 pm
@MontereyJack,
Monterey Jack, my statement actually and "in effect," is that SI is the MAJOR cause of El Nino ENSO variation.

This statement of yours is correct: ENSO is part of the heat transfer from euqatorial regions to the arctic. It has probably existed as long as the sun has shone on the earth and there has been liquid water. It will exist whether SI changes or not. The heat transfer, incidentally, is what we know as "weather".

Ask yourself this obvious question with the obvious answer: Where does that heat that is transferred come from? Then ask what causes that heat that is transferred to fluctuate?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 07:07 am
@ican711nm,
Gotta love your source for SI ican..

He states he is using Lean's numbers from 2004 and yet puts out numbers for 2005-2008. Where did he get those numbers?

Then he says this which is in direct conflict with ACRIM where we DO have actual SI measurements.
Quote:
Take into account that the reconstruction of Dr. Judith Lean considered in plotting this graph is based only on sunspots number. This means that there could be many solar factors that can drive the Earth's climate other than the number of sunspots; for example, the amplitude of the fluctuations of the Intensity of SI.


Since Lean's numbers ended prior to 2004, where did your source get his numbers for the years after that?
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 07:08 am
@parados,
The last source you listed gives us Lean's numbers from 2004 and it shows they actually ended in 2001.

So.. where did you get your numbers for 2002-2008? Your source doesn't tell us. You don't tell us. They could be made up numbers without a source.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 07:11 am
@parados,
Quote:
Take into account that the reconstruction of Dr. Judith Lean considered in plotting this graph is based only on sunspots number. This means that there could be many solar factors that can drive the Earth's climate other than the number of sunspots; for example, the amplitude of the fluctuations of the Intensity of SI.

By the way ican. This statement by your source, who is a biologist not a climatologist, shows that he has no concept of what the fluctuations in SI are as measured by satellite since 1979. The amplitude of fluctuations have turned out to be lower than expected from earlier reconstructions using sun spots.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 28 Apr, 2009 01:53 pm
IT IS A FACT
During the specific 90 year period, 1908 to 1998, CAD increased, SI increased, AoAAGT increased, and AAGT increased. It is also a fact that
during the specific 11 year period, 1998 to 2008, CAD increased, SI decreased, AoAAGT decreased, and AAGT decreased.

Because of these facts, SI increases and decreases are likely to be the MAJOR causes of AoAAGT and AAGT increases and decreases, and CAD increases are likely to be MINOR, if not negligible, causes of increases of AoAAGT and AAGT.

THEREFORE:
If SI increases over the next 3 years, AoAAGT and AAGT will probably increase over that same period.
If SI continues to decrease over the next 3 years, AoAAGT and AAGT will probably continue to decrease over that same period.


CAGT = CENTURY AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE,1901-2000, in °K = 287.06°K
AAGT= ANNUAL AVERAGE GLOBALTEMPERATURE in °K
AoAAGT = ANOMALIES of AAGT = AAGT - CAGT in °K
AAGT = CAGT + AoAAGT
CAD = CO2 ATMOSPHERIC DENSITY in PPM
SI = SOLAR IRRADIANCE in W/M^2
0 Replies
 
 

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