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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Thu 11 Dec, 2008 08:38 pm
@okie,
How many years of continued global cooling have to occur before these asshats understand global warming is a scam.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 04:52 am
Ask that question again when there have been some, H20.

And, no, the world has not been cooling since 1998. That's just bullshit from the denialist blogs.

1998 was not the high point. Global temperatures in 2005 were higher, says NOAA.

It is well known that there is significant inter-year variability in global temp due to weather variation, since it's a chaotic system, but the overall trend is still up. You get a tempreature spike in an el Nino year and a temp. dip in a la Nina year, those are part of the largest single weather event on the earth, ENSO, but they are just redistributions of heat already in the system, but they are superpositions atop long-range trends. 1998 was the largest el Nino on record. 2005 was hotter, with a smaller el Nino effect, since the baseline continues to increase. 2007-8 was a pretty strong la Nina year, hence the temporary dip. But October '08, after the la Nina ended, returned to the upward trend and was the second warmest on record.The ENSO corrected HadCRUT and NASA-GISTEMP temperature records continue to increase. www.realclimate.org for 18 Nov.

Sorry, but it ain't goin' down.

H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 05:48 am
@MontereyJack,
This GW bullshit is getting out of hand.
Owl Gore is an asshole and so are those that believe his fictional story.

The earth has been cooling for years - accept it!
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 05:56 am
http://www.grunt.com/images-bs/TOPIX_IRAQ_US_MILITARY_WAR_143200349%5B1%5D.jpg
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 07:41 am
The facts don't agree with you, H2O. And that's the fact.
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 07:54 am
@MontereyJack,
The true facts are on my side.

The pseudo facts are on you.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 12:35 pm
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt
ANNUAL AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN DEGREES CELSIUS RELATIVE TO AN AGREED NORM FOR THE YEARS 1997 THROUGH OCTOBER 2008

Year .. Annual Average

Quote:
1997 ... 0.351
1998 ... 0.546
1999 ... 0.296
2000 ... 0.270
2001 ... 0.409
2002 ... 0.464
2003 ... 0.473
2004 ... 0.447
2005 ... 0.482
2006 ... 0.422
2007 ... 0.405
2008 ... 0.315*
*Average for January through October.

Please note that all of the annual average global temperature anomalies after 1998 are less than the 1998 anomaly.


Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 12:53 pm
@ican711nm,
As we have seen over the relatively long life of this thread, any of us can produce charts and graphs that appear to be proof of whatever point of view is being expressed re global warming.

There is no getting around the fact that CO2 levels have been steadily increasing in the last several decades and no serious climate models suggest otherwise.

There are also plenty of credible climate models being put out by quite credible scientists that show that rising global temperatures have stalled and/or are retreating over the last decade, however, and even the staunchest global warming activists aren't trying to dispute that any more.

To non-religionists, this does raise serious questions whether CO2 in the atmosphere is driving climate change or whether reducing anthropogenic generated CO2 will have any measurable effect whatsoever.

And we now seem to be drifting into a new debate. Is global warming no longer a problem? Or, as the global warming religionist say, is it only temporarily stalled and will soon resume and therefore the draconian measures required to save the planet must still be implemented? Or, as some suggest, has the warming cycle completed and we are now headed into a new ice age?

All interesting stuff.

The debate goes on.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 02:36 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:
There are also plenty of credible climate models being put out by quite credible scientists that show that rising global temperatures have stalled and/or are retreating over the last decade, however, and even the staunchest global warming activists aren't trying to dispute that any more.


Plenty climate models? And 'credible''? And those models (sic!) show that "that rising global temperatures have stalled and/or are retreating over the last decade" (sic!)???
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 02:45 pm
http://i35.tinypic.com/2hd1cwo.png
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 03:41 pm
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
http://www.eoearth.org/image/Mauna_loa_curve.jpg

ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 04:57 pm
http://www.biocab.org/Comparison_Solar_Irradiance_Espa_ol.jpg

http://www.biocab.org/Comparison_Solar_Irradiance_Espa_ol.jpg
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 12 Dec, 2008 05:26 pm
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif


0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2008 01:46 am
Report commissioned by French government finds electric cars are unviable? It is a sufficient problem for a President eager to impress the global environmental community that it appears he probably won't allow the report to be published.

It's just one among several incidents that makes skeptics wonder if anybody on the AGW side of the debate is being honest about the science and issues as well as the proposed 'fixes' involved.

Quote:
Politically inconvenient truth about electric cars
By Paul Betts and Song Jung-a
Published: December 11 2008 19:24

President Nicolas Sarkozy would dearly like to end France’s rotating presidency of the European Union on a high note by brokering this week a deal on a grand European response to global warming and energy efficiency. The ultimate plan is to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent with member states at the same time drawing their future energy needs from clean renewable sources by the same percentage amount. Under the circumstances, it is no surprise that the automobile industry has found itself at the heart of the climate change debate.

Indeed, Mr Sarkozy’s own government commissioned months ago one of France’s leading energy experts " Jean Syrota, the former French energy industry regulator " to draw up a report to analyse all the options for building cleaner and more efficient mass-market cars by 2030. The 129-page report was completed in September to coincide with the Paris motor show. But the government has continued to sit on it and seems reluctant to ever publish it.

Yet all those who have managed to glimpse at the document agree that it makes interesting reading. It concludes that there is not much future in the much vaunted developed of all electric-powered cars. Instead, it suggests that the traditional combustion engine powered by petrol, diesel, ethanol or new biofuels still offers the most realistic prospect of developing cleaner vehicles. Carbon emissions and fuel consumption could be cut by 30-40 per cent simply by improving the performance and efficiency of traditional engines and limiting the top speed to about 170km/hr. Even that is well above the average top speed restriction in Europe, with the notable exception of Germany. New so-called “stop and start” mechanisms can produce further 10 per cent reductions that can rise to 25-30 per cent in cities. Enhancements in car electronics as well as the development of more energy efficient tyres, such as Michelin’s new “energy saver” technology, are also expected to help reduce consumption and pollution.

Overall, the Syrota report says that adapting and improving conventional engines could enhance their efficiency by an average of 50 per cent. It also argues that new-generation hybrid cars combining conventional engines with electric propulsion could provide an interesting future alternative.

By combining electric batteries with conventional fuel-driven engines, cars could run on clean electricity for short urban trips while switching over to fuel on motorways. This would resolve one of the biggest problems facing all electric cars " the need to install costly battery recharging infrastructures.The report warns that the overall cost of an all-electric car remains unviable at around double that of a conventional vehicle. Battery technology is still unsatisfactory, severely limiting performance both in terms of range and speed. The electricity supply for these batteries would continue to come from mostly fossil sources.

The misgivings over the future of the electric car may explain why the French government appears to have spiked the report. It probably considers it politically incorrect, especially when some of Mr Sarkozy’s big business chums such as Vincent Bolloré and Serge Dassault are developing either electric cars and lobbying hard. Renault too has struck a deal with Israel to jointly develop a mass-market electric vehicle. To paraphrase Al Gore’s documentary on climate change, Paris may feel it is not the best of times to publicise the inconvenient truth about electric cars.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37f1f624-c7b0-11dd-b611-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2008 02:19 am
@Foxfyre,
I suppose, Foxfyre, your above quote says (and deals) more about "Napoléon" Sarkozy and his understanding of « Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité » than about climate change.


Speaking about serious sources: the chair of environmental meteorology at the Brandenburg technological university Cottbus just published a new regional model for Germany: it will get 4.5°C warmer in the next decades ...

http://www.tu-cottbus.de/meteo/Forum_Klima/CLM_Szenarien.pdf
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2008 05:38 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I don't know that the chair of environmental meteorology at the Brandenburg technological university Cottbus just publishing a new regional model for Germany is convincing evidence that it will actually get 4.5°C warmer in the next decades.

It's evidence that the chair likes to see his name and title in the news the mass production, distribution and disposal of which contributes to the problem as does the the demand whipped up by adverts accompanying this dramatic newsflash as indeed does the maintenance of Cottbus university and the lifestyles of all those, directly or indirectly make a living from it.

The phrase "the next decades" can easily be stretched to coverr the period when the chair will no longer be with us thus avoiding any embarrassment to the chair in the event of the chair's prediction being incorrect.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2008 08:07 am
@spendius,
Well, spendi, I don't know what you understand re 'climate model'.

My understanding is the same as that of many others: it's a model for the future. (The phrase "the next decades" was of course mine. As you noticed in the linked source, it's actually until 2100.)

And "yes", they wanted to be in the news/media since they presented their new results made with "COSMO-CLM". (The COSMO-CLM [COSMO model in Climate Mode] is a nonhydrostatic regional climate model developed from the Local Model [LM] by the CLM Modelling Community . Since 2005 it is the Community-Model of the german climate research.
The Local Model [LM] has been developed by the Deutscher Wetterdienst [DWD] for operational weather forecast. Meanwhile it is used and further developed by several weather services organized in the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling [COSMO].)

spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2008 10:44 am
@Walter Hinteler,
So?

Developing models is a nice lucrative occupation far removed from the nitty-gritty of any real low status productive work and a pollution agent of some magnitude compared with some ways of living I might mention if I thought viewers here were not aware of them.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2008 05:09 pm
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Dec, 2008 06:01 pm
@ican711nm,
Please study the graphs in my previous post and please note:.

1. The atmospheric density of CO2 increased steadily from 1958 to 1982, BUT the average global temperature from 1958 to 1982 was relatively stable and decreased somewhat;

2. The atmospheric density of CO2 continued to increase steadily from 1982 to 1998, AND the average global temperature began to increase in 1982 and subsequently continued to increase until 1998;

3. The atmospheric density of CO2 continued to increase steadily from 1998 to the present, BUT after 1998 the average global temperature began to level off and decrease somewhat to the present.

All that appears to imply that the atmospheric density of CO2 has little if any effect on the average global temperature, and something else is causing the average global temperature to fluctuate.
 

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