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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Dec, 2005 01:45 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
oralloy wrote:
cicerone imposter wrote:
Steve, They are now dumping it into the oceans - hoping they don't leak for over a thousand years.


They who?

We sure aren't doing that in the US.


The Army had admitted [three years after Norwegian scientists published a report] that it secretly dumped 64 million pounds of nerve and mustard agents into the sea, along with 400,000 chemical-filled bombs, land mines and rockets and more than 500 tons of radioactive waste - either tossed overboard or packed into the holds of scuttled vessels.

source: various media, e.g. KRT Wire


Hmmm.... Wonder if there were any laws broken there.

At any rate, it certainly isn't what is being done with civilian nuclear waste. That is still on the site of the reactors, and will likely be transferred to some Indian reservation in Utah.
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oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Dec, 2005 01:49 pm
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:
>Some while back I said I had a solution to the problem of radioactive waste. I think now is the time to reveal to the world for the very first time what my proposal entails. As oralloy says, the technical problems of nuclear fission are solved, with the exception of a truly satisfactory resolution for the waste. As it is not physically possible to destroy it, I propose dumping it in the s...

>no not sea

>SUN.

>All you have to do is get the stuff safely into space, then give it a gentle nudge towards our nearest star. Gravity will do the rest. And as the sun is one giant nuclear furnace, a tiny amount of man made radioactive waste is not going to upset the apple cart.

>However, as one or two of you might have noticed, there is a small matter of getting several hundred tonnes of highly radioactive and extremely dangerous material safely into space. The Russians have already suggested we use their rockets, but even using the best rocket technology money can buy, the thought of a catastrophic accident involving several tonnes of radioactive waste falling back to earth is somewhat sobering.

>So, what I propose is to build a space elevator. You simply take the well packaged material, load it onto a specially designed vehicle, put that on the elevator and send it upwards on the lift until its out there floating all by itself. You only have to give it a little nudge and it will fall into the sun.
>Bye bye radionucleides, welcome to truly clean green and plentiful nuclear power.


The space elevator is a great idea, but I don't like the idea of permanently disposing of those isotopes.

What if in the future they could be used in an important medical procedure?
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oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Dec, 2005 01:56 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Not true. There are a host of long-lived nuclides produced by fission that are not themselves suitable as fuel in a secondary process.


Such as?



georgeob1 wrote:
Separating the fissionable U-235 and the several fissionable Plutonium isotopes from spent fuel will yield more useful power for a given quantity of long-lived high level waste, but it will not eliminate it entirely.


I was thinking of separating every isotope of uranium, plutonium, neptunium, americium, and curium from the waste, for use as fuel for fast-neutron reactors.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Dec, 2005 02:07 pm
oralloy wrote:
The space elevator is a great idea...


thanks its patented, just send the money c/o steve41oo Bahamas.

oralloy wrote:
What if in the future they could be used in an important medical procedure?


We just send a team to the sun to get it back....alternatively produce some more and dont shoot it up the space lift.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Dec, 2005 02:12 pm
Is the Americium fissionable in a fast neutron process? It decays with a very high energy gamma and is a diffivult masterial to handle'

Are there any operational (as opposed to experimental plants) fast neutron reactors in operation anywhere?
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Dec, 2005 02:15 pm
Oralloy brings up an excellent point. Highly radioactive materials, while dangerous, are not to be wasted!

You never know what will be the spaceship fuel of tommorrow. So, while I am a big fan of the space elevator, it would make much more sense to put a storage facility at L2 and keep all the waste rather than shoot it into the sun.

Cycloptichorn
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Dec, 2005 04:58 pm
we can always make sh1t

why do you want to preserve poisonous sh1t?
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 06:05 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Not true. There are a host of long-lived nuclides produced by fission that are not themselves suitable as fuel in a secondary process.

While Oralloy did say "nuclear" rectors, perhaps what he meant was a different sort of devices that made their way through the press a couple of months ago. These devices are basically long-lived batteries. They exploit the fact that radioactive materials are usually a few degrees warmer than their surroundings. They use some radioactive, non-fissionable element (Radium? not sure), plug it into a heat pump or Peltier element, and generate electricity with it, usually for some kind of spy equipment that has to work autonomously. I don't want to put words in Oralloy's mouth, but maybe that's what he means.

georgeob1 wrote:
The most interesting possibility - for me at least - is dumping the waste material in suitably designed low drag containers into the ocean in certain deep (25,000+ feet) subduction zones in the western Pacific Ocean. The descending ogive would dig a fairly deep hole, and in certain areas that have been studied extensively the sedimentation rate is over a meter per year. Thus the material would be buried beneath the ocean floor with a steadily increasing thickness of cover. More importantly, it will be driven into the molten sublayer below the earth's crust by the action of the colliding plates -- not to appear again for a few eons, by which time the hazard is gone.

I'd like to add a point that may go without saying for you, but may not be obvious to the others. The state-of-the-art processing for spent fuel elements is to melt them into a glass. Lays usually connote the word "fuel" with something liquid. Hence they get worried when somebody dumps spent nuclear "fuel" into the sea. What we are talking about is a solid that does not dissolve in water. So even in a leaky container, it will just keep sitting wherever it sits.

I tried to find the percentage of radioactive waste that is actually liquid, but didn't succeed. Do you have a figure, George?
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 08:17 am
Vitrification (turning into glass) was heralded as the answer for high level nuclear waste. But as far as I'm aware its never really worked very well. The spent fuel rods from the reactor are basically dissolved in nitric acid and from that solution the plutonium and any other fissile materials they might be interested in is separated by chemical means. This of course leaves behind a very unpleasant concentrated radioactive soup. This is where vitrification was going to render it relatively harmless, but as far as I am aware most of the high level waste is still in liquid form...although thats just a guess.

The subduction disposal method seems attractive. But one would have to be sure the material really was being carried deep into the earth.

I still think the best method is to get it off the planet altogether...but certainly not on top of a rocket.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 12:17 pm
Thomas wrote:

I'd like to add a point that may go without saying for you, but may not be obvious to the others. The state-of-the-art processing for spent fuel elements is to melt them into a glass. Lays usually connote the word "fuel" with something liquid. Hence they get worried when somebody dumps spent nuclear "fuel" into the sea. What we are talking about is a solid that does not dissolve in water. So even in a leaky container, it will just keep sitting wherever it sits.

I tried to find the percentage of radioactive waste that is actually liquid, but didn't succeed. Do you have a figure, George?


"Radioactive waste" is a term that covers a wide spectrum of stuff, ranging from slightly contaminated tools and work clothing for which the cost of cleaning exceeds its value or replacement cost, to high concentrations of of radioactive heavy elements with half lives in the 10,000 to 20,000 year range found in spent fuel - and everything in between.

The spent fuel waste that goes into the Yucca Mountain repository constitutes no more than a few percent of the total by volume. What goes into the repository includes the (usually zirconium) matrix into which the fuel is blended and the cladding that encloses it. All of this is enclosed in a stainless steel container, so that, by the time it gets to the repository the stored material is no more than about 20% by volume, high level waste.

Generally the economics of disposal strongly favor concentrating the waste by separating the innocuous components from the radioactive ones. This usually means separating the solid component from any waste generated in liquid form. The principal liquid wastes generated are cleaning solvents and, in the case of fuel reprocessing plants, the nitric acid solution into which the spent fuel is dissolved and from which plutonium and other useful nuclides are precipitated. This latter is one of the principal legacy problems at the Hanford Washington site where it was simply stored in large buried tanks and with little control of just what went in them.

Discharged reactor coolant (water) is, I suppose, an important source. However the principal activated component (N-17) has a half life of seconds, so by the time the water is cooled down the only radioactive components are dissolved corrosion products, generally with half lives of a year or so. (In a well-maintained plant these should involve extremeny small concentrations.) These are easily removed in ion exchangers and carbon filters, yielding VERY pure water that meets public source standards.

The great majority of solid radioactive waste generated by nuclear plants is generated by exposure of structural metals to the primary radiation from the reactors, including the corrosion products that coat the interiors of fluid systems. These generally have half lives of about two years, so they are not a long-term hazard. (The worst of them is cobalt-60 which has a 5.1 year half life. Improved valve seat design has eliminated that source in newer plants)

The big emotional issues that surround radiation arise from the facts tha (1) you can't see or feel it, and (2) it is easily and cheaply detected in extremely small quantities. The best medical science can do is to detect a tumor containing millions of cells and billions of atoms, while with an instrument costing just a few hundred dollars one can detect the presence of a few thousand radioactive nuclides. The earth is deterctably radioactive and many emotional radioactive waste public issues involve material less radioactive than the soil in the regions where these issues arise. (We had this problem at Rocky Flats in Colorado)

I agree about oralloy's likely point. I think he was also referring to fast neutron reactors. However, to my lnowledge, there are no operational powerplants of this type anywhere. It is an interesting research possibility and one that promises much cheaper access to fissionable fuel. However there are some serious control issues in the physics of plant design. Most of the world's nuclear plants are water cooled and moderated using thermal neutrons to initiate fission of U-235. I believe the latest designs are gas-cooled variants with improved fuel cladding, permitting much higher operating temperatures and higher Carnot efficiencies.


It is very odd to me that throughout Europe and North America the most avid fear mongers of global warming are also strong opponents of nuclear power. This irrational combination of ideas is an indicator of the emotional and superstitious motivation behid their activism.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 01:36 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
It is very odd to me that throughout Europe and North America the most avid fear mongers of global warming are also strong opponents of nuclear power. This irrational combination of ideas is an indicator of the emotional and superstitious motivation behid their activism.

I know. Personally I find it even odder that several environmentalists I know simultaneously fear global warming and the oil running out of oil, gas, and coal. When I pointed out to one of them that these fears are mutually exclusive, he replied that this was easy for me to say, since I obviously don't care about the environment.

Anyway, thanks a lot for your primer on radioactive waste.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 01:47 pm
Foolish boys. One can fear the consequences of global warming and also fear the consequences of another nuclear plant catastrophe.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 01:56 pm
That is true, but nuclear catastrophes are almost as overhyped as terrorism as a source of public fear. And for the same reason: they tend to occur in few, spectacular events which are rewarding to televise. None of this is true for the coal workers who have died of lung cancer or silicosis at 50, or those who got blown up in underground explosions. Historically, the death toll of coal has been a good deal higher than that of nuclear energy. But this hasn't entered the public consciousness because that death toll arose from sources that TV cameras don't reach.
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mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 02:03 pm
Thomas wrote:
That is true, but nuclear catastrophes are almost as overhyped as terrorism as a source of public fear. And for the same reason: they tend to occur in few, spectacular events which are rewarding to televise. None of this is true for the coal workers who have died of lung cancer or silicosis at 50, or those who got blown up in underground explosions. Historically, the death toll of coal has been a good deal higher than that of nuclear energy. But this hasn't entered the public consciousness because that death toll arose from sources that TV cameras don't reach.


To illustrate the point,more people have died in China's coal mines this year then the total of people killed by nuclear power plant accidents.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 02:50 pm
Thomas wrote:
That is true, but nuclear catastrophes are almost as overhyped as terrorism as a source of public fear. And for the same reason: they tend to occur in few, spectacular events which are rewarding to televise. None of this is true for the coal workers who have died of lung cancer or silicosis at 50, or those who got blown up in underground explosions. Historically, the death toll of coal has been a good deal higher than that of nuclear energy. But this hasn't entered the public consciousness because that death toll arose from sources that TV cameras don't reach.


That's true, thomas. Of course the potential scale of disaster has to be put into the calculation (think of Bhopal, for example). It's not entirely irrational for folks to get upset about a reactor meltdown because they could be affected whereas they (almost everyone) will never be affected by a mine shaft collapse.

There's a dilemma here. A state health representative or an economist will look at the numbers and probabilities and conclude a 'best for everybody' formula. That will include some calculation of probability of something really bad but rare happening. Of course, if he gets unlucky (along with everyone else), then folks are up **** creek. And it's not irrational for folks to make decisions which place greater emphasis on prudence (even if the cold numbers advise they will be better off in 9 out of 10 instances).
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 02:58 pm
blatham wrote:
There's a dilemma here. A state health representative or an economist will look at the numbers and probabilities and conclude a 'best for everybody' formula. That will include some calculation of probability of something really bad but rare happening. Of course, if he gets unlucky (along with everyone else), then folks are up **** creek. And it's not irrational for folks to make decisions which place greater emphasis on prudence (even if the cold numbers advise they will be better off in 9 out of 10 instances).

Thats actually a fundamental point Blatham. Do we follow reason or gut instinct? (No question if you ask me)
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 03:06 pm
How do you calculate suffering? There's the classic case of GM knowing that some percentage of a particular auto would burst into flames in a rear end collision, and they could calculate the probabilities of how much they would have to pay in damages resulting from suits related to those deaths and mutilations. The calculation found that these costs were likely to be less than the cost related to recall and repair. So they let the folks burn.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 03:11 pm
blatham wrote:
And it's not irrational for folks to make decisions which place greater emphasis on prudence (even if the cold numbers advise they will be better off in 9 out of 10 instances).

I'm not saying it's irrational. Nuclear accidents have killed a few people of every profession while coal mine accidents have killed a lot of coal miners. Why bother with dying coal miners if I ain't one of them? You're right, it's perfectly rational for me to oppose nuclear energy and support coal. It's just not a position I have a lot of respect for.

I am unpersuaded by the point about prudence you have made in this context. It is prudent to avoid deaths from coal; it is just as prudent to avoid deaths from uranium and plutonium; and coal is the energy source that is killing more people. So in my opinion, most people who favor coal over nuclear energy are less prudent than those with the opposite preference. They are just more prudent about risks that affect themselves than about risks that only affect others.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 03:14 pm
I'll add another quick point too...

Above, thomas made the wonderful comparison with the overhyping of terrorism. Now, I consider that overhyping of terrorism and al Qaida has been an ongoing project since 9/11 (a notion greatly increased after seeing that BBC documentary, thanks steve).

But to make sense of these issues, we are much aided by considering motives and who, if anyone, is in a position to gain from deceitful hyping.

We can easily see the benefits that accrue to certain key economic and or political players from the hyping of terrorist threat. We can see the benefits to key economic interests from the downplaying of global warming/pollution threats. Whether or not those motives are difficult to identify in the specific or to measure, ignoring them is simply foolish.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 Dec, 2005 03:16 pm
blatham wrote:
How do you calculate suffering? There's the classic case of GM knowing that some percentage of a particular auto would burst into flames in a rear end collision, and they could calculate the probabilities of how much they would have to pay in damages resulting from suits related to those deaths and mutilations. The calculation found that these costs were likely to be less than the cost related to recall and repair. So they let the folks burn.


Yeah it was the Pinto, and Ralph Nader made an issue of it rightly, imo.

How indeed do you calculate suffering? Greatest good for the greatest number (inverse of).

why do we put a value on compensation claims? loss of arm leg etc?

I dunno B and after excellent bottle of Merlot Ruby Cabernet not that inclined to speculate, well not in any meaningful sense just now....except

would just say farts to you too

and thanks for the various neo con/Straussian pointers, most interesting. Smile
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