Given the limited to nonexistent advantages of using biofuels to reduce greenhouse gasses coupled with quite real food shortages and runaway inflation on food prices, I think only the most hopeless AGW fanatic cannot see the downside of converting food products to biofuels. The folly continues even when non food crops are converted to biofuels if such crops take up land that would normally be used to grow food crops.
For an organization that doesn't often score well on the positive side, the UN did actually get something right this time.
Not to belabor the point, fox, well, actually, yes, to belabor the point, there is a large difference between foodstock biofuels and non-foodstock. Again, cane ethanol in Brazil produces 30% of their fuel needs on 2% of the cropland (and that 2% actually produces sugar too, since the ethanol is made from the waste stalks). And while corn ethabnol only produces on the order of 1.3 units of energy for 1 unit involkved in producing it, the cane return is 8 to 1 (wikipedia). All ethanols are not created equal. The corn ethanol situation in the States is George Bush's boondoggle to reduce dependence on foreign oil, not to reduce global warming.
This mostly silly controversy is very illustrative of the usually unseen, but very significant side effects of government intervention in economic activity to achieve other goals.
In the first place the rising food prices we see are mainly a result of rising demand for more and better food products from China, India and other countries, -- and NOT the diversion of food production for alternate fuels.
Rising food prices will very quickly stimulate added production, and, we hope, the dismantlement of the various subsidy programs governments operate to "protect" politically powerful food producers from the challenges of the marketplace - these usually involve expensive schemes to limit production and keep prices high - exactly the opposite of what is truly needed.
In the second place the "problem" is NOT biofuels generally: rather it is only those biofuels derived from corn (mostly under government subsidized programs), which yield very little net gain in either energy independence or GHG reduction. This is a result of the relatively low energy yield of corn-based ethanol, compared to the energy consumed in producing it. Cane sugar has a much higher ethanol energy yield, and requires much less energy to produce. In the case of Brazil, the largest producer, most of the cane-producing land had been undeveloped forest & grasslands and was not diverted from agriculture. Other biofuels, derived from waste greases and oils; or those involving gases derived from landfill or waste product decay; have no impact on food production whatever. They should be left unmolested by government (or the UN) and used to the extent they are economically beneficiel.
All this is a good example of the mischief governments can create when they intervene in otherwise beneficial economic activity for the sake of unrelated goals. This is particularly relevant, given the exaggerated public frenzy over AGW. An unholy combination of foolish government programs (government subsidies of the corn market generally and additional subsidies for the production of ethanol from corn), motivated by the greedy self-intrest of corn producers and enabled by exaggerated public concerns about AGW, has driven the price of corn up 30% this year in the U.S. Corn is a ubiquitous component of foods, and the effects here on prices have been a substantial addition to others resulting from rising demand.
Electrical energy is an even more ubiquitous and pervasive element in the production of all the foods, manufactured products, and even services we consume. Given the effects of a 30% increase in corn prices on the price of food, consider for a moment what a more than 100% increase in the price of electrical energy will have on everything. This is exactly what we will get as a result of the government subsidies and mandates now demanded by solar producers and AGW zealots.
Walter Hinteler wrote:
In other words: the warming trend has not gone away and it looks likely that warmer temperatures will boomerang back.
A (not so) fictional visit of Walter to the Medecine Man
-Med man: Walter, you're sick (after making some impressive and naturally ununderstandable incantations)
-Walter: no, I'm fine, just some backpain
-Med man: Walter, you're sick. Your sickness is just hidden but it has not gone away and looks likely that it will boomerang back.
-Walter: oh yes, tell me what to do, I'm ready to ACT.
username wrote:Again, cane ethanol in Brazil produces 30% of their fuel needs on 2% of the cropland (and that 2% actually produces sugar too, since the ethanol is made from the waste stalks).
Er no, ethanol is NOT made from the waste stalks, not in Brazil anyway.
username wrote:SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC CONTINUES TO GROW. ANOTHER FORMER SKEPTICAL SCIENTIST, CONFRONTED BY EVIDENCE, CONVERTS.
...
Overland said he used to be among those skeptical about the effects of global climate change. The new findings, which he termed "startling," were developed at a recent workshop, he said.
A scientist who co-authors a
1999 paper linking zooplanktons' activity to climate change (translation: we need more funding to know the effect of GW on the tiny and vulnerable planktons, send in the bucks), claiming to be a former skeptics ???
This guy has no shame!
Oh, BTW, wiki has a list of "former skeptics". Seems some first class "scientists" have been converting en masse
:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Former_global_warming_skeptics
SORRY USERNAME, YOU'RE STILL MAKING BIG FALSE CONCLUSIONS.
There is NO SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE PROVIDED in this article that supports the claim that Arctic warming is caused by human activities. All there is in this article is one additional sentence alleging that "all studies now show human activities are the drivers of climate change in the Antarctic." No specific references are given to any such alleged "all studies now show."
ON THE OTHER HAND
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists
--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.
THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
The CO2 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution, but the average global temperature has been fluctuating since then until 1975. From 1975 to 2005, CO2 ppm in the atmosphere increased more than 14%, while the average global temperature increased less than 0.23%. Also from 1975 to 2005 the sun's irradiance increased more than 0.07%. Since 2005, the sun's irradiance has decreased, and so has the average global temperature, even though the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere has continued to increase.
http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611 t0 2001
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Temperature Anomalies relative to the 1901-2000 average for the years 1880 to 2007
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html
The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_and_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
1880 thru 2007 Yearly Average Mean Measurements of Temperature Anomalies
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt
The 1975 to 2005 CO2 ppm increase
And on that Brazlian ethanol made from cane? The devil is always in the details isn't it? More cane grown for more ethanol or more rain forest? While of course reducing dependency on oil imports from dubious sources is a worthy goal, is an increase in biofuels production worth the loss of a lot of rain forest?
Quote:March 9, 2007
The Downside of Brazilian Ethanol
Ethanol is in the news with President Bush touring Latin America and forming an ethanol alliance with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Brazil is a world leader in ethanol production, using sugar cane as the source of much of the nation's transport fuel.
We've talked about Brazilian ethanol here before and some readers have raised questions about damage to the Amazon rain forest - not because rain forest is being cut to grow sugar cane, but because sugar cane is pushing other crops into the rain forest region. Protection of the Amazon has been highlighted this week in the run-up to President Bush's trip.
Brazil slowed the loss of the rain forest by 11 percent last year, but if the region's soybean market expands, growers will push into the Amazon region. Farmland farther south in Brazil has largely moved to sugar cane production.
LINK
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists
--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.
THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
27.
Anton Uriarte, a professor of Physical Geography at the University of the Basque Country in Spain and author of a book on the paleoclimate, rejected man-made climate fears. "It's just a political thing, and the lies about global warming are contributing to the proliferation of nuclear energy," Uriarte said according to a September 2007 article in the Spanish newspaper El Correo. "There's no need to be worried. It's very interesting to study [climate change], but there's no need to be worried," Uriarte wrote. "Far from provoking the so-called greenhouse effect, [CO2] stabilizes the climate." Uriarte noted that "the Earth is not becoming desertified, it's greener all the time." Uriarte says natural factors dominate the climate system. "The Earth being spherical, the tropics always receive more heat than the poles and the imbalance has to be continually rectified. They change places because of the tilt of the earth's axis. And, moreover, the planet isn't smooth, but rough, which produces perturbations in the interchange of air masses. We know the history of the climate very well and it has changed continuously," he wrote. "It's evident that the Earth is a human planet, and that being so, it's quite normal that we influence the atmosphere. It's something else altogether to say that things will get worse. I believe that a little more heat will be very good for us. The epochs of vegetational exuberance coincided with those of more heat," he explained. "In warm periods, when there are more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - more CO2 and water vapour - climate variability is less. In these periods greenhouse gases, which act as a blanket, cushion the differences between the tropics and the poles. There is less interchange of air masses, less storms. We're talking about a climate which is much less variable," he added.
The CO2 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution, but the average global temperature has been fluctuating since then until 1975. From 1975 to 2005, CO2 ppm in the atmosphere increased more than 14%, while the average global temperature increased less than 0.23%. Also from 1975 to 2005 the sun's irradiance increased more than 0.07%. Since 2005, the sun's irradiance has decreased, and so has the average global temperature, even though the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere has continued to increase.
http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611 t0 2001
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Temperature Anomalies relative to the 1901-2000 average for the years 1880 to 2007
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html
The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_and_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
1975 thru 2005 Yearly Average Mean Measurements of Temperature Anomalies
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt
The 1975 to 2005 CO2 ppm increase
http://www.biocab.org/Comparison_TT-CO2-Solar_Irradiance.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611-2006
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists
--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.
THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
28.
Professor David F. Noble of Canada's York University authored the book "America by Design: Science, Technology and the Rise of Corporate Capitalism" and co-founded a group designed to make scientific and technological research relevant to the needs of working people. Noble, a former curator at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington and a former professor at MIT, is a committed environmentalist and a man-made global warming skeptic. Noble now believes that the movement has "hyped the global climate issue into an obsession." Noble wrote a May 8, 2007 essay entitled "The Corporate Climate Coup" which details how global warming has "hijacked" the environmental left and created a "corporate climate campaign" which has "diverted attention from the radical challenges of the global justice movement." Noble wrote,"Don't breathe. There's a total war on against CO2 emissions, and you are releasing CO2 with every breath. The multi-media campaign against global warming now saturating our senses, which insists that an increasing CO2 component of greenhouse gases is the enemy, takes no prisoners: you are either with us or you are with the 'deniers.' No one can question the new orthodoxy or dare risk the sin of emission. If Bill Clinton were running for president today he would swear he didn't exhale." Noble added,"How did scientific speculation so swiftly erupt into ubiquitous intimations of apocalypse?"
The CO2 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution, but the average global temperature has been fluctuating since then until 1975. From 1975 to 2005, CO2 ppm in the atmosphere increased more than 14%, while the average global temperature increased less than 0.23%. Also from 1975 to 2005 the sun's irradiance increased more than 0.07%. Since 2005, the sun's irradiance has decreased, and so has the average global temperature, even though the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere has continued to increase.
http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611 t0 2001
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Temperature Anomalies relative to the 1901-2000 average for the years 1880 to 2007
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html
The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_and_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
1975 thru 2005 Yearly Average Mean Measurements of Temperature Anomalies
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt
The 1975 to 2005 CO2 ppm increase
http://www.biocab.org/Comparison_TT-CO2-Solar_Irradiance.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611-2006
The reason this thread has degenerated is that there is no dispute any more. Just as we accept the earth orbits the sun and that life is the result of evolution...so its settled. The earth's climate is changing and its anthropogenic. The debate has moved on.
Steve 41oo wrote:The reason this thread has degenerated is that there is no dispute any more. Just as we accept the earth orbits the sun and that life is the result of evolution...so its settled. The earth's climate is changing and its anthropogenic. The debate has moved on.
The debate has moved on only for the environmental religionists. It doesn't bother you at all that billions of dollars that could be utilized for better infrastruture or to adapt to natural (and/or irreversible) climate change could be diverted to useless concepts that could actually hurt people and ill prepare us to cope with reality?
If humans do have the ability to alter their climate in constructive ways, I'm all for it. I do not object in any way to continued study and research.
But if such ability would be misused or could produce unintended negative consequences or if we might divert massive resources to fight a nonexistent monster, I think we would be wise to know with a whole lot more certainty than now exists before we go that route.
Foxfyre wrote:
The debate has moved on only for the environmental religionists. It doesn't bother you at all that billions of dollars that could be utilized for better infrastruture or to adapt to natural (and/or irreversible) climate change could be diverted to useless concepts that could actually hurt people and ill prepare us to cope with reality?
Which "billions of dollars" are you talking about Fox?
Please provide us of some evidence of these "billions of dollars" and then tell us how they could be better used.
It is so easy to make statements in the abstract but when you want to claim there is no evidence on the global warming side you better be able to provide MORE evidence than what you are arguing against.
parados wrote:Foxfyre wrote:
The debate has moved on only for the environmental religionists. It doesn't bother you at all that billions of dollars that could be utilized for better infrastruture or to adapt to natural (and/or irreversible) climate change could be diverted to useless concepts that could actually hurt people and ill prepare us to cope with reality?
Which "billions of dollars" are you talking about Fox?
Please provide us of some evidence of these "billions of dollars" and then tell us how they could be better used.
It is so easy to make statements in the abstract but when you want to claim there is no evidence on the global warming side you better be able to provide MORE evidence than what you are arguing against.
Parados, I'm sure you are a wonderful person. But experience here suggests that attempts to provide you with evidence about anything are pretty much an exercise in futility so far as settling anything goes. So I will simply expect your objection along with a recitation of flawed assumptions about my opinion and/or motives when I refer you to the many hundreds of pages of posts that have dealt with that very subject over the last many months.
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists
--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.
THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
29.
Award-winning quaternary geologist Dr. Olafur Ingolfsson, a professor from the University of Iceland who has conducted extensive expeditions and field research in the both the Arctic and Antarctic, chilled fears that the iconic polar bear is threatened by global warming. Ingolfsson was awarded the prestigious "Antarctic Service Medal of the United States" by the National Science Foundation. "We have this specimen that confirms the polar bear was a morphologically distinct species at least 100,000 years ago, and this basically means that the polar bear has already survived one interglacial period," Ingolfsson said according to a December 10, 2007 article in the BBC. The article explained, "And what's interesting about that is that the Eeemian - the last interglacial - was much warmer than the Holocene (the present)." Ingolfsson continued, "This is telling us that despite the on-going warming in the Arctic today, maybe we don't have to be quite so worried about the polar bear. That would be very encouraging." Ingolfsson is optimistic about the polar bears future because of his research about the Earth's history. "The polar bear is basically a brown bear that decided some time ago that it would be easier to feed on seals on the ice. So long as there are seals, there are going to be polar bears. I think the threat to the polar bears is much more to do with pollution, the build up of heavy metals in the Arctic. This is just how I interpret it. But this is science - when you have little data, you have lots of freedom," he concluded.
The CO2 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution, but the average global temperature has been fluctuating since then until 1975. From 1975 to 2005, CO2 ppm in the atmosphere increased more than 14%, while the average global temperature increased less than 0.23%. Also from 1975 to 2005 the sun's irradiance increased more than 0.07%. Since 2005, the sun's irradiance has decreased, and so has the average global temperature, even though the CO2 ppm in the atmosphere has continued to increase.
http://www.biocab.org/Solar_Irradiance_English.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611 t0 2001
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Global Mean Temperature Anomalies relative to the 1901-2000 average for the years 1880 to 2007
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html
The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_and_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
1975 thru 2005 Yearly Average Mean Measurements of Temperature Anomalies
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt
The 1975 to 2005 CO2 ppm increase
http://www.biocab.org/Comparison_TT-CO2-Solar_Irradiance.jpg
Solar Irradiance 1611-2006
Factor in increased Volcanic activity and we are well on our way to a global cool down.
MORE OF THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
30 + 100 = 130.
Over 100 Prominent International Scientists Warn UN Against 'Futile' Climate Control Efforts in a December 13, 2007 open letter. "Attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic misallocation of resources that would be better spent on humanity's real and pressing problems[
NOTE
]
The scientists' letter continued: "The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is essential to plant photosynthesis. While we understand the evidence that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC's conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for implementing policies that will markedly diminish future prosperity. In particular, it is not established that it is possible to significantly alter global climate through cuts in human greenhouse gas emissions." "The IPCC Summaries for Policy Makers are the most widely read IPCC reports amongst politicians and non-scientists and are the basis for most climate change policy formulation. Yet these Summaries are prepared by a relatively small core writing team with the final drafts approved line-by-line by ¬government ¬representatives. The great ¬majority of IPCC contributors and ¬reviewers, and the tens of thousands of other scientists who are qualified to comment on these matters, are not involved in the preparation of these documents. The summaries therefore cannot properly be represented as a consensus view among experts," the letter added.
[
NOTE
Only 52 scientists participated in the UN IPCC Summary for Policymakers in April 2007, according to the Associated Press. ...]
The letter was signed by renowned scientists such as Dr. Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists;
[
LIST OF THE REST OF THE SIGNATORIES
]