Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

So, even if we don't buy Gore and the doom sayers--
the ice is melting, which
leaves more ocean to absorb rather than reflect sunlight (heat), which
makes the seas hotter, which
begins a cycle of hotter water, less ice...

I know this is simplistic, but an issue, don't you think?

There are 400 years of fairly well-documented human observation of the Canadian Arctic, and the Northwest Passage has been ice-choked throughout that peiod.

username wrote:

There are 400 years of fairly well-documented human observation of the Canadian Arctic, and the Northwest Passage has been ice-choked throughout that peiod.

No one lived in the Canadian Arctic 400 years ago accept the Inuits who don't have a written language.
How can something be "well-documented" if it has never been visited ? It's doesn't make sense !
As to the past 200 years, the Norwest Passage has been opened many, many times well before this AGW hoax.

I guess we can all find links to what we want to find...

Global warming isn't the sexy topic we all thought...

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

24.
Renowned agricultural scientist Dr. Norman Borlaug, known as the father of the "Green Revolution" for saving over a billion people from starvation by utilizing pioneering high yield farming techniques, is one of only five people in history who has been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, the Presidential Medal of Freedom ,and the Congressional Gold Medal. Borlaug also declared himself skeptical of man-made climate fears in 2007. "I do believe we are in a period where, no question, the temperatures are going up. But is this a part of another one of those (natural) cycles that have brought on glaciers and caused melting of glaciers?" Borlaug asked, according to a September 21, 2007 article in Saint Paul Pioneer Press. The article reported that Borlaug is "not sure, and he doesn't think the science is, either." Borlaug added, "How much would we have to cut back to take the increasing carbon dioxide and methane production to a level so that it's not a driving force?" We don't even know how much."

Global Warming May Take Ten Year Break

Posted Apr 30, 2008 by Bob Ewing in Environment

To date climate change projections, as published in the last IPCC report, only considered changes in future atmospheric composition. This strategy is appropriate for long-term changes in climate such as predictions for the end of the century.

Climate change projections, as published in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, only consider changes in future atmospheric composition. This strategy is appropriate for long-term changes in climate such as predictions for the end of the century. However, in order to predict short-term developments over the next decade, models need additional information on natural climate variations, in particular associated with ocean currents.

The lack of sufficient data has hampered such predictions in the past.

Scientists at The Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR) and from the MPI for Meteorology have developed a method to derive ocean currents from measurements of sea surface temperature (SST). The latter are available in good quality and global coverage at least for the past 50 years.

The press release says that with this additional information, natural decadal climate variations, which are superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, can be predicted. The improved predictions suggest that global warming will weaken slightly during the next decade.

"Just to make things clear: we are not stating that anthropogenic climate change won't be as bad as previously thought", explains Prof. Mojib Latif from IFM-GEOMAR.

"What we are saying is that on top of the warming trend there is a long-periodic oscillation that will probably lead to a to a lower temperature increase than we would expect from the current trend during the next years", adds Latif.

"That is like driving from the coast to a mountainous area and crossing some hills and valleys before you reach the top", explains Dr. Johann Jungclaus from the MPI for Meteorology. "In some years trends of phenomena, the anthropogenic climate change and the natural decadal variation will add leading to a much stronger temperature rise."

Emmy-Noether1 fellow and lead author Dr. Noel Keenlyside from IFM-GEOMAR continues: "In addition to the greenhouse gas concentrations we are using observed SST's of the past decades in our climate model simulations, a method which has already successfully been applied for seasonal predictions and El Niño forecasting. The SST's influence the winds and the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere, and both factors impact ocean currents. The results are very encouraging and show that at least for some regions around the world, it is possible to predict natural climate oscillations on decadal time scale. Europe and North America are two such regions because they are influenced by the North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific, respectively."

Prof. Latif expands "Such forecasts will not enable us to tell you whether or not we will have a white Christmas in 2012 in northern Germany, but we will be able to provide a tendency as to whether or not some decades will be warmer or cooler than average. Of course, always with the assumption that no other unforeseen effects such as volcanic eruptions occur, which can have a substantial effect on our climate as well".

Quote:

Global Warming May Take Ten Year Break

Posted Apr 30, 2008 by Bob Ewing in Environment

To date climate change projections, as published in the last IPCC report, only considered changes in future atmospheric composition.

False! Actually to date, climate change projections, as published in the last IPCC report, only considered changes in PAST, PRESENT, AS WELL AS future atmospheric composition.

This strategy is appropriate for long-term changes in climate such as predictions for the end of the century.

fALSE! This strategy is INAPPROPRIATE FOR LONG-TERM AS WELL AS short term predictions, because it fails to give proper attention to other causes than atmospheric composition SUCH AS SOLAR CAUSES.

Climate change projections, as published in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, only consider changes in future atmospheric composition.

Again, false! Actually to date, climate change projections, as published in the last IPCC report, only considered changes in PAST, PRESENT, AS WELL AS future atmospheric composition.

This strategy is appropriate for long-term changes in climate such as predictions for the end of the century. However, in order to predict short-term developments over the next decade, models need additional information on natural climate variations, in particular associated with ocean currents.

Again false, this strategy is INAPPROPRIATE FOR LONG-TERM OR short term predictions, because it fails to give proper attention to other causes than atmospheric composition such as SOLAR CAUSES.

The lack of sufficient data has hampered such predictions in the past.

Scientists at The Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR) and from the MPI for Meteorology have developed a method to derive ocean currents from measurements of sea surface temperature (SST). The latter are available in good quality and global coverage at least for the past 50 years.

The press release says that with this additional information, natural decadal climate variations, which are superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, can be predicted. The improved predictions suggest that global warming will weaken slightly during the next decade.

"Just to make things clear: we are not stating that anthropogenic climate change won't be as bad as previously thought", explains Prof. Mojib Latif from IFM-GEOMAR.

"What we are saying is that on top of the warming trend there is a long-periodic oscillation that will probably lead to a to a lower temperature increase than we would expect from the current trend during the next years", adds Latif.

"That is like driving from the coast to a mountainous area and crossing some hills and valleys before you reach the top", explains Dr. Johann Jungclaus from the MPI for Meteorology. "In some years trends of phenomena, the anthropogenic climate change and the natural decadal variation will add leading to a much stronger temperature rise."

Emmy-Noether1 fellow and lead author Dr. Noel Keenlyside from IFM-GEOMAR continues: "In addition to the greenhouse gas concentrations we are using observed SST's of the past decades in our climate model simulations, a method which has already successfully been applied for seasonal predictions and El Niño forecasting. The SST's influence the winds and the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere, and both factors impact ocean currents. The results are very encouraging and show that at least for some regions around the world, it is possible to predict natural climate oscillations on decadal time scale. Europe and North America are two such regions because they are influenced by the North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific, respectively."

Prof. Latif expands "Such forecasts will not enable us to tell you whether or not we will have a white Christmas in 2012 in northern Germany, but we will be able to provide a tendency as to whether or not some decades will be warmer or cooler than average. Of course, always with the assumption that no other unforeseen effects such as volcanic eruptions occur, which can have a substantial effect on our climate as well".

Source

In other words: the warming trend has not gone away and it looks likely that warmer temperatures will boomerang back.

In other words, the current warming trend has gone away and has been replaced by a cooling trend, which eventually will be followed by another warming trend and then another cooling trend as in past decades, centuries, and millenia.

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

25.
Astronomer Dr. Jeff Zweerink of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) studies gamma rays, black holes, and neutron stars and has declared himself a skeptic of man-made climate fears. "Many natural phenomena significantly affect the global climate. Atmospheric conditions are impacted by tectonic activity, erosion, and changes in Earth's biomass, for example," Zweerink wrote on December 18, 2006. "While politicians and activists focus on the effects of fossil fuel burning the breeding and domestication of cows and cultivation of rice, for example, actually does more harm than driving too many SUV's," Zweerink added.

The UN's new top adviser on food has urged a freeze on biofuel investment, saying the blind pursuit of the policy is "irresponsible".

The use of food crops for alternative sources of energy like ethanol is one factor behind the price hike.

Mr de Schutter did not go quite as far as his predecessor in the job, Jean Ziegler, the BBC's Laura Trevelyan reports from New York.

Mr Ziegler had condemned biofuels as a "crime against humanity" and called for an immediate ban on their use.

But the new special rapporteur on the right to food did insist the American and European goals for biofuel production were unrealistic.

"The ambitious goals for biofuel production set by the United States and the European Union are irresponsible," he said in an interview for France's Le Monde newspaper.

"I am calling for a freeze on all investment in this sector."

The biofuel rush was, he argued, a "scandal that only serves the interests of a tiny lobby".

Calling for a special session of the UN Human Rights Council to discuss the food crisis, Mr de Schutter also said he wanted to find ways to limit the impact of speculative investments in food commodities like wheat, which had further driven up prices.

And the rapporteur, a Belgian professor of international law, said it was "unforgivable" that the international community had failed to anticipate the riots sparked last month by soaring food prices.

"Nothing was done to prevent speculation in raw materials, though it was predictable investors would turn to these markets following the stock market slowdown," the UN official said.

"We are paying for 20 years of mistakes."