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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Apr, 2008 05:09 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

10.
Chief Meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart of the MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center in Sao Leopoldo - Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil declared himself a skeptic. "The media is promoting an unprecedented hyping related to global warming. The media and many scientists are ignoring very important facts that point to a natural variation in the climate system as the cause of the recent global warming," Hackbart wrote on May 30, 2007. "I believe we have the duty to inform people about the true facts of global warming. It is interesting that is this global warming era of hysteria we just lived a very cold week with snow in the higher elevation of Southern Brazil and that the next week could be even colder with low temperatures not seen in this part of the globe during the month of May in the last 20 to 30 years. It is not only South Africa that is freezing. South America is under a sequence of cold blasts not seen since the very cold climatic winter of 2000 (La Niña)," Hackbart concluded. In a June 5, 2007 article, Hackbart noted that the "historical cold events in Southern Brazil (in 1957, 1965, 1975, 1984, 1996 and 2006) have another aspect in common. They all took place around the 11-year sun cycle solar minimum."
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Apr, 2008 05:27 pm
I am surprised that there has so far been so little comment on the recent spikes in food prices and the political reactions that have resulted in a variety of places around the world.

Among the many factors identified as contributing to the problem are rising fuel prices and , perhaps more interestingly, the displacement of crops from food sources to feed stock for biofuels (mostly ethanol) that has occurred, largely with generous government subsidies in many large nations, including the U.S.

This illustrates what may become a telling indicator of a growing problem -- namely, the competition between the favored activities and programs of AGW lobbies and essential human economic needs. While most blithely acknowledge that the cost of measures advocated to combat the specter of AGW so ceaselessly presented to us will be very great, few take the trouble to acknowledge the reality of it and the effects on those who find themselves as its victims.

This competition will eventually force us to confront the reality of the contradictions we will increasingly face and the necessity of evaluating the cost and potential benefits of various competing alternatives.

Those who so blithely suggest that we can "easily" transition our power production from nuclear ($.06 per KW-Hr) or coal ($.08 per KW-Hr) to solar or wind power ($.16 per KW-Hr) and substitute biofuels for petroleum will have to look much harder at the practical reality before them (and us) and, as well, deal with some very difficult trade-offs.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Apr, 2008 05:32 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Among the many factors identified as contributing to the problem are rising fuel prices and , perhaps more interestingly, the displacement of crops from food sources to feed stock for biofuels (mostly ethanol) that has occurred, largely with generous government subsidies in many large nations, including the U.S.

You must understand it's a terribly hard dilemma. On the one hand, starving people in poor countries. On the other hand, Senate seats from America's many agricultural states that politicians of both parties want. Hmmm ... how to decide ..............
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Apr, 2008 05:41 pm
I'm not sure it is really a dilemma. Very hard to get excited about the efficiency of food production in India, Haiti, or the enlightened socialist paradises of Africa. However, I am confident of the inclination of the media and the class of self-appointed commentators to eventually portray it in those terms.

We have both in previous discussions attempted - without much success - to assert that eventually unfolding reality would force us to consider the relative costs and effectiveness of competing remedies for the challenges before us, particularly as it might affect the rather unbounded demands of the AGW zealots. We may now be seeing the leading edge of that phemomenon.
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ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Apr, 2008 06:56 pm
Thomas wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
Among the many factors identified as contributing to the problem are rising fuel prices and , perhaps more interestingly, the displacement of crops from food sources to feed stock for biofuels (mostly ethanol) that has occurred, largely with generous government subsidies in many large nations, including the U.S.

You must understand it's a terribly hard dilemma. On the one hand, starving people in poor countries. On the other hand, Senate seats from America's many agricultural states that politicians of both parties want. Hmmm ... how to decide ..............

It is not a "hard dilemma!" All that need be done is ignore the fraudulent claims that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is the principal cause of AGW, and therefore stop the production of ethanol.

By the way, switching from oil to ethanol, will not reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The production of ethanol plus the combustion of ethanol will emit per barrel of ethanol far more CO2 into the atmosphere than does oil. Continuing this global warming hoax will starve a lot more people than will ever be overheated by oil's CO2 emissions.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Apr, 2008 08:14 pm
Amen, ican. Get rid of fraudulant and emotional policies. Pretty simple really. Ethanol is not competitive in the market without artificially propping it up, so just get rid of artificial government manipulation of a free market, and the problem goes away. There will still be high energy prices, etc., but at least the best efficiency of all the competing forces bring things back into the proper equilibrium.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Apr, 2008 09:38 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
I'm not sure it is really a dilemma. Very hard to get excited about the efficiency of food production in India, Haiti, or the enlightened socialist paradises of Africa. However, I am confident of the inclination of the media and the class of self-appointed commentators to eventually portray it in those terms.

We have both in previous discussions attempted - without much success - to assert that eventually unfolding reality would force us to consider the relative costs and effectiveness of competing remedies for the challenges before us, particularly as it might affect the rather unbounded demands of the AGW zealots. We may now be seeing the leading edge of that phemomenon.


The issue of rising food costs is not going without notice. I don't recall if anything has been posted here, but there has been spirited discussion of the pros and cons of bio fuels discussed on another site that I visit at times. One question that came up was why diesel, which used to be the cheap fuel, is hovering around $4.00/gallon while gasoline averages between $3.29 and $3.39 for regular unleaded.

So I asked my son who is engineering supervisor at a large West Texas refinery and this was his response:

Quote:
Hi mom...

There are a few reasons why diesel is so high...

1) Demand is way up primarily due to European and Chinese markets. This along with a tightening refining capacity has supplies lower than in past years.

2) Government requirements on low-sulfur diesel (for emissions purposes) has also has a huge effect on diesel prices that were not there a few years ago. It costs the refiners more to get almost all of the sulfur out of the diesel and therefore higher prices at the pump. Also, not all refineries are set up to produce low-sulfur diesel which tightens supplies even further.

3) Federal and state taxes on diesel are about $.06 per gallon higher than for gasoline

4) Also, bio-diesel requirements are now starting to have some effect on prices and this will likely get worse as we get closer to the 20% bio-diesel/gasoline requirement in the current energy bill over the next few years.


His #4 especially caught my attention as it related to the discussion on biofuels. The 20% does not apply to diesel only but to all petroleum based fuels.

At the grocery store today, small 4" to 5" ears of corn were selling for 79 cents each - large ears for more than $1.25. This is a huge increase over last year at this time. All meat and diary products are also showing significantly higher prices.

None of this is any huge deal for me, but for those with limited resources, I can see how diverting more and more food products to fuels could become a serous problem. Also more and more money diverted to fuel costs and related food costs is money that isn't being spent to sustain other areas of the economy with a probable negative ripple effect.

I am all for research into all manner of energy production, but I hope we are paying enough attention to the possible unintended negative consequences of the policy.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 01:14 am
EU defends biofuel goals amid food crises
Quote:
The EU Commission on Monday rejected claims that producing biofuels is a "crime against humanity" that threatens food supplies, and vowed to stick to its goals as part of a climate change package.

"There is no question for now of suspending the target fixed for biofuels," said Barbara Helfferich, spokeswoman for EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas


Now that stories about this biofuel-food riots fiasco crop out in the mass media (we are fed with it daily on French TV for nearly a week now), I hope those bastard bureaucrats from the IPCC and EU will be minced and feed to the hungry poor Mad
And wonder that some are ready to let those uncompetent, non elected and unaccountable parasites "save the climate" with 20, 50 year plans while they don't even see a disaster banging right in their face !
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 07:35 am
The largest driving cost in food price increases is the increase in oil costs.

Natural Gas is used to make fertilizer which has increased in cost by 200% in the last year.
Oil is used to make diesel fuel which is used to work the fields.
Oil is used to transport the food to stores.
Oil is used to manufacture the food products that appear in boxes on the shelfs of stores.
Energy is used to heat the stores and cool the food in those stores.


The argument that somehow the costs of food are a result of the increase in corn prices is silly if not out right disingenuous by those making it.
Corn has NOT doubled in price in the last 12 years.

In 1996 Corn was 3.64 a bushel. Today on the spot market it is 6.18
In 1996 Soybeans were $7.91 Today they are $10.64

In 1996 gasoline was $1.25 a gallon. Yesterday it was $3.45
Diesel fuel has gone from $1.22 in 1996 to $4.00 yesterday.

This from the USDA
Quote:
The USDA estimates of food input costs as a percentage of retail prices are incorporated into
this study, and are as follows:
• Cereal and bakery items: input costs represent 4% of the price paid by consumers
• Beef: input costs represent 48% of the price paid by consumers
• Pork: input costs represent 27% of the price paid by consumers
• Chicken (fryers): input costs represent 50% of the price paid by consumers
• Dairy products: input costs represent 38% of the price paid by consumers
• Fats and oils: input costs represent 15% of the price paid by consumers
• All other (including fruits and vegetables) were assumed to not be impacted by a
sustained increase in the price of corn


Anyone willing to bet that the cost of beef since 1996 has only gone up the 28% that the increased corn prices would have driven it up?

When checking the annual inflation rates it seems soybeans have just barely increased more than inflation and corn has only gone up about double the inflation rate. Meanwhile gasoline has tripled in price and diesel fuel has more than tripled in price.

The increase in costs of fuel and fertilizer have driven the costs to produce corn up by 60% or more. If corn was at $4.00 a bushel, there would be very few if any farmers planting it this year because the cost to produce it would be more than selling price.
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username
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 10:40 am
Corn ethanol in the States is not there because of anything to do with global warming. Remember that George Bush and the Republican Party didn't believe in global warming then. It's part of the "Reduce dependence on foreign oil" boondoggle (and to get farm state votes and agribusiness bucks for Republicans).

Talk to our idiot president about it, not those of us who actually follow climate science. We've been telling you for a couple years now that cane ethanol, as in Brazil, makes some sense but food stock ethanol doesn't.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 11:13 am
Username - anyone with even remote familiarity with both petrochemicals and farm subsidies knows that corn ethanol in the U.S. is a non-starter, financially; politically matters may be viewed differently.

Perhaps only the self-proclaimed "climate scientists" are so blinded by a political agenda as to miss any and all connection to finances Smile
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 11:46 am
Corn ethanol may be silly, but ... has anybody calculated the business case and environmental case of making woodgas from corn straw and powering vehicles with it? It strikes me as a plausible option for having your corn in the tank and eating it, too.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 11:51 am
Yes, Thomas, and prairie grass (a native American variety that used to grow where corn is planted now) has also been tested. At current petroleum prices neither has much future as a fuel without government subsidies.

Take a look at this, though, sobering pictures of oceanic pollution:
http://www.pbs.org/strangedays/?email=Inside18Apr08
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 11:55 am
Thomas wrote:
Corn ethanol may be silly, but ... has anybody calculated the business case and environmental case of making woodgas from corn straw and powering vehicles with it? It strikes me as a plausible option for having your corn in the tank and eating it, too.


I'm pretty sure there are folks doing experiments and trying to come up with a better mousetrap in every aspect of energy production and use that any of us can think of and a lot we haven't thought of too.

The issue isn't what are the possibilities. The possibilities are endless; ergo my opinion that within this generation we will likely see new and better energy sources replace petroleum based energy products AND biofuels altogether. All that is needed is a plentiful or renewable source that is practical, user friendly, and reasonable to use to mass produce energy for universal use.

The issue as I see it is what the immediate POLICIES should be so far as what the government promotes, subsidizes, mandates, etc. For me it is extremely short sighted and counterproductive to assume that there is anything that can or will replace petroleum in the near future without devasting billions of people. Therefore the best ways to develop and use existing petroleum reserves is a useful and practical and necessary human activity WHILE we work on processes that will become the energy sources of the future.

And I think the IPCC blueprint is likely counterproductive to all that.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 12:10 pm
Thomas wrote:
Corn ethanol may be silly, but ... has anybody calculated the business case and environmental case of making woodgas from corn straw and powering vehicles with it?


What process for woodgas production do you have in mind? Anerobic decay??

As you likely know there are already lots of in situ applications of methane production & use from food-processing waste ponds, landfills and other like sources (the former, being the richest sources). The resulting gas often requires further treatment (moisture & H2S scrubbing, etc.) and usually ends up with a gas with about 75% the BTU content of natural gas. As a result it doesn't compete well for vehicular applications with natural gas.

However, it is interesting that, the 16% of our electrical power generation currently coming from compound gas turbine plants, involves an energy potential about equal to over half of our vehicular consumption of petroleum (almost all of which is imported). The mere substitution of new nuclear plants for this generating capacity would make enough high quality natural gas available to become the chief fuel for our transport system.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 01:05 pm
I was referred to this site that provides a good comparison of ethanol to gasoline. It is, however, basing its price analysis on 1991 prices and that would need to be significantly adjusted for today's prices:

http://auto.howstuffworks.com/question707.htm

It is from the "Howstuffworks" site and was in response to how much corn would it require to produce enough ethanol for a cross country automobile trip.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 01:38 pm
Thomas wrote:
Corn ethanol may be silly, but ... has anybody calculated the business case and environmental case of making woodgas from corn straw and powering vehicles with it? It strikes me as a plausible option for having your corn in the tank and eating it, too.



Trees, straw and sour milk are said to be the second generation of bio-fuels.

(Actually, we don't use corn but rape here for the "first generation".)
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 01:42 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
What process for woodgas production do you have in mind? Anerobic decay??

In principle yes, though it's a rather rapid form of decay. I was thinking of the same process by which Germans powered their trucks immediately after World War II, when they didn't have the money to import crude oil. The technical term is Holzvergaser, which I couldn't find an English translation for. Maybe HighSeas knows one. Anyway, a Holzvergaser was an appendage to the truck, somewhat like an oven. It produced carbon monoxide by burning wood under a shortage of oxygen. The carbon monoxide, in turn, powered a regular Otto motor, much as Propane sometimes does today.

I see no reason why the technique wouldn't work with straw instead of wood. But of course, as High Seas indicated, the business case may not check out yet.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 01:48 pm
Charcoal gas producer = Holzvergaser?
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Apr, 2008 01:54 pm
Is "wood gasifier" acceptable? Here's a picture:

http://www.bio-wasserstoff.de/h2/Kleinvergaser/Kaefer_mit_Holzgas.jpg
0 Replies
 
 

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