parados wrote:Humans are accountable for 5% of CO2 per year.
But that doesn't account for the "increase" in CO2.
1975 - 2005 is 30 years. Humans put 6 billion tons per year into the atmosphere. The oceans and plants remove more than 150 billion tons per year will putting 150 billion in per year.
That assumes that humans put 5% per year into the atmosphere.
F for a 30 year time frame is NOT figured by 6/(90+60)
You have to figure the total contributed each year and the total taken out each year by the ocean and vegetation.
Cr = the amount of CO2 removed by oceans and vegetation each year.
Cr would be about 154 billion tons based on a rough percentage of increase.
F would be (6x30)-(30x(CR-(90+60)))
180 - 120 = 40
That means that 40 billion tons have been contributed over the course of the 30 years. This is NOT 5% of the atmospheric total CO2. It is 40/156 if 156 is really the TOTAL CO2 in the atmosphere. But we don't know that for certain based on the information given since it assumes that ALL the CO2 is cycled every year. Something that isn't realistic.
But then you make the SAME error I pointed out earlier leaving out in this case 96% of human CO2. Humans cause 4-5% of the heat created by CO2. You can't multiply the increase by the % of CO2 since you haven't shown that the oceans or vegetation make up 96% of the increase. In fact we know they can NOT make up 96% of the increase since that would mean that humans only contribute .0016 of the CO2 which you just said they contributed .04. Your math is faulty and your assumptions are even worse.
In order to use the 5% of CO2 figure to show what % is contributed by humans you would have to know what % of the total temperature of the earth is caused by CO2.
If the sun's irradiance were always constant, and the density of CO2 in the oceans and global atmosphere were also constant, then it would be accurate to say that when humans added CO2 to the oceans and atmosphere, they were the sole cause of the additional CO2 in the oceans and atmosphere. But even if humans added nothing to the oceans and atmosphere, the increased heating of the oceans by the sun's increased irradiance would cause increased amounts of CO2 to leave the oceans and enter the atmosphere.
So the question to be answered scientifically is: how much of the additional CO2 in the atmosphere is caused by the sun's increased irradiance, and how much by humans' increased CO2 emissions? Humans are alleged to annually be putting into the atmosphere 1/X the amount of the annual extra amount of CO2 put there by increased warming of the oceans. What is the value of X?
For lack of a more supportable number, I have claimed X = 20. I claim X = 20, because 20 times more CO2 leaves earth's surfaces and enters the atmosphere each year than is put there by humans.
However, I know I cannot prove X = 20, by that reasoning. I don't actually know the actual ratio of human caused CO2 emissions to increased solar irradiation caused CO2 emissions. But if no one knows that ratio, then how can anyone truly know how much of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in any year is human caused? I say they cannot really know such until they really know that ratio.
Show me where I'm wrong ... if you can!
