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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 09:31 am
Mercy. I certainly hope the climate is changing. It always has. We watched the movie "Groundhog Day" on Saturday to commemorate the actual event. And I have this nightmare in my mind that the climate might become so stable and so static that we get up every day to the same sky, the same windspeed or lack thereof, the same humidity etc. If it is all good, then maybe there could be some advantages. But those who get stuck in one of the yucky days......sheesh. I vote for climate change, the natural way of course.
0 Replies
 
cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 09:35 am
We are losing our snow for the fifth time this year. It's been the snowiest winter in 119 years or something like that. We get dumped on, then it warms up and rains, it all melts, then repeats. I'm sure not looking forward to the 6th time. Enough already!!!

Oh, for those that remember the Lake Michigan digression, this also means that we've had enough water hit the shed that the lake levels should rise substantially by spring. If they don't, then there's only one conclusion. Our water is being siphoned off, possibly stolen.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 11:17 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Mercy. I certainly hope the climate is changing. It always has. We watched the movie "Groundhog Day" on Saturday to commemorate the actual event. And I have this nightmare in my mind that the climate might become so stable and so static that we get up every day to the same sky, the same windspeed or lack thereof, the same humidity etc. If it is all good, then maybe there could be some advantages. But those who get stuck in one of the yucky days......sheesh. I vote for climate change, the natural way of course.



I know a lot who want to live in parts of the worlds with a different climate than in theirs.

A stable climate is what I was used to live until a couple of years: with cold winters, warm summers.


And perhaps with a couple of days showing such weather as you described above as your 'nightmare climate'.


Quote:
Climate

conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements (and their variations) that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation (type, frequency, and amount), atmospheric pressure, and wind (speed and direction).
... The best modern definitions of climate regard it as constituting the total experience of weather and atmospheric behaviour over a number of years in a given region. Climate is not just the "average weather" (an obsolete, and always inadequate, definition). It should include not only the average values of the climatic elements that prevail at different times but also their extreme ranges and variability and the frequency of various occurrences. Just as one year differs from another, decades and centuries are found to differ from one another by a smaller, but sometimes significant, amount. Climate is therefore time-dependent, and climatic values or indexes should not be quoted without specifying what years they refer to. [And 102 more pages]
climate." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 5 Feb. 2008 http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9106248.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 12:54 pm
cjhsa wrote:
We are losing our snow for the fifth time this year. It's been the snowiest winter in 119 years or something like that. We get dumped on, then it warms up and rains, it all melts, then repeats. I'm sure not looking forward to the 6th time. Enough already!!!

Oh, for those that remember the Lake Michigan digression, this also means that we've had enough water hit the shed that the lake levels should rise substantially by spring. If they don't, then there's only one conclusion. Our water is being siphoned off, possibly stolen.


Sorry CJ. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow last Saturday.

Meanwhile its spitting some snow again as lunch hour approaches on top of the 2+ inches that finally stuck last night. As we are in a La Nina year, the experts predicted a warmer and drier winter than normal for us. It has been anything but. Taos ski valley is digging out from four feet of recent snow. Elephant Butte lake, the state's largest was so low after a prolonged drought a few years ago, they estimated it would take 20 years of normal snowfall to refill it. I think it might make it this summer.

Given how much guesswork goes into these things and how wrong the 'experts' are so much of the time, I'm guessing Punxsutawney Phil's prediction may be as accurate as anything else we're getting.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:01 pm
miniTAX wrote:
Here in France, I have bought Philips and Osram CFLs. Both don't work with dimmers.


I'll look for that myself tomorrow (and ask since when they are sold in France :wink: ).
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:06 pm
Walter wrote
Quote:
I know a lot who want to live in parts of the worlds with a different climate than in theirs.


And that is one of the benefits some see from climate change that would moderate some of those places. I've mentioned before that Russia is thinking that if the Siberian climate should become warmer, Siberia could become the breadbasket of the world.

New Mexico's climate is considerably more moderate than we recember when we first moved back here more than 20 years ago. The winters are remembered as much colder than now (at least until this year) and the summers much warmer. We have had mild winters and mild summers for several years now. Then again, I suspect many of us remember the weather the way 'it used to be' differently than it probably actually was.

Then again, Hamburger's observations of ice or the absence thereof on Lake Ontario is certainly a valid observation. Is it unusual in the grand scheme of things? I don't know.

But I know that climate does change and does so dramatically over centuries and millenia and eons. And that, in the grand scheme of things, is probably exactly what is supposed to be.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:08 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
Walter wrote
Quote:
I know a lot who want to live in parts of the worlds with a different climate than in theirs.


And that is one of the benefits some see from climate change that would moderate some of those places. I've mentioned before that Russia is thinking that if the Siberian climate should become warmer, Siberia could become the breadbasket of the world.

New Mexico's climate is considerably more moderate than we recember when we first moved back here more than 20 years ago. The winters are remembered as much colder than now (at least until this year) and the summers much warmer. We have had mild winters and mild summers for several years now. Then again, I suspect many of us remember the weather the way 'it used to be' differently than it probably actually was.

Then again, Hamburger's observations of ice or the absence thereof on Lake Ontario is certainly a valid observation. Is it unusual in the grand scheme of things? I don't know.

But I know that climate does change and does so dramatically over centuries and millenia and eons. And that, in the grand scheme of things, is probably exactly what is supposed to be.


It's not predictable, though. That's the problem. It can cause big problems for people that we can't foresee.

It's amazing the gambles some are willing to take in the long run with the enviorment, but never on other issues, such as social ones.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:15 pm
Who's gambling? I have been a strong advocate for focusing on helping people deal with inevitable climate change as I don't believe that we have the power to reverse whatever climate change is happening whether or not we had anything to do with that change. Despite Kyoto and a gazillion mandates and a lot of hand wringing it simply hasn't happened and it isn't going to happen. So far better to set about making a silk purse as necessary out of the sows ear.

Humans survived the last ice age. And they survived the last periods that were warmer than now. And they are certainly in a position to survive whatever mother nature throws at us now. Lets concentrate on that.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:30 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

Humans survived the last ice age. And they survived the last periods that were warmer than now. And they are certainly in a position to survive whatever mother nature throws at us now. Lets concentrate on that.


That's right. And humans survived Hitler, the bubonic plague, invasions, wars ... ...
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:35 pm
That's Knut, the baby polar bear of the Berlin zoo, seeing snow for the first time.

http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/00432/mim_knut3_DW_Berlin_432053g.jpg
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:49 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

Humans survived the last ice age. And they survived the last periods that were warmer than now. And they are certainly in a position to survive whatever mother nature throws at us now. Lets concentrate on that.


That's right. And humans survived Hitler, the bubonic plague, invasions, wars ... ...


I suppose I see the analogy you're making Walter. But I see climate change as something entirely different that Hitler, the bubonic (or any other plague), invasions, or wars and rather regard those as large red herrings in this discussion.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 01:58 pm
Well, many think different - one of the main topics in our (local) churches (both evangelical as well as catholic) here is ... saving energy to save God's nature.
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ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 03:01 pm
okie wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Okie, Is this what you want?

Yes, your graph appears to show an "alarming" rise of 0.4 C since 1880.

Shocked
Yes, and when that alarming 0.4C rise increases all the way up to a horrendous 0.5C rise, it will be time to buy big beach umbrellas, hip boots, lots of vaseline, and move to either pole. By the time we all get to the poles, all the ice will be melted there, and fishing should be good. Good that is, if we don't have to fight off the Polar Bears in the north, the Penquins in the south, and the environmentalists in between.
Cool
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 08:55 pm
parados wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
You do not have a cause and effect shown by experiments. All you have is a possible correlation shown by experiments. But currently it looks like it is a weak correlation because the temperature increased at a much slower rate 1976-2007 than did the CO2 in the atmosphere during the same period.
Also, do not forget, correlation alone does not prove cause.

Tyndall, John (1861). "On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by
Gases and Vapours..." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 22: 169-94,
273-85.


Tyndall, John (1863). "On Radiation through the Earth's Atmosphere."
Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 25: 200-206.


Tyndall, John (1863). "On the Relation of Radiant Heat to Aqueous
Vapor." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 26: 30-54.


Tyndall, John (1873). Contributions to Molecular Physics in the Domain
of Radiant Heat. New York: Appleton.


Tyndall, John (1873). "Further Researches on the Absorption and
Radiation of Heat by Gaseous Matter (1862)." In Contributions to
Molecular Physics in the Domain of Radiant Heat pp. 69-121. New York:
Appleton.

The link between gas heating and the composition of the gas has been known for 150 years. You have bull **** when you claim there is nothing more than "correlation". There is a very real DIRECT relation. The problem is not that there isn't a direct relation. The problem is in modeling all the other factors that also affect temperature.

You also don't know **** about what "direct relation" means. X = 10Y is a direct relation. X = Y^2 is also a direct relation. A direct relation in no way means that X and Y have to increase at the same rate. It only means that as one increases then the other would also increase. This is something that is quite clear from the graphs. Your statement highlighted in red is nothing but bull **** and pretty poor bull **** at that.


A Presumed Direct Relationship

Basis:
For the years 1976 thru 2007,
Global Temperature up 0.66K from 286.95K to 287.61K
Global Atmosphere CO2 up 55 ppm from 330 ppm to 385 ppm

Let:
T = global temperature in degrees Kelvin.
C = CO2 in the atmosphere in ppm
Y = Any Year 1976 thru 2007

Assume:
C = C76 + Y x 55/31.
T = T76 + Y x 0.66/31

C76 = 330.0
T76 = 286.95

Then:
C = 330 + 1.774Y
Y = (C - 330)/1.774
T = 286.95 + 0.0213Y
Y = (T - 286.95)/0.0213
(C - 330)/1.774 = (T - 286.95)/0.0213
((C-330)/1.774) x 0.0213 = T - 286.95
(((C-330)/1.774) x 0.0213) + 286.95 = T
T = ((C-330) x 0.0213/1.774) + 286.95
T = ((C-330) x 0.0120) +286.95
T = 0.0120C - 3.96 +286.95

T = 0.0120C + 282.99

If C = 330, Then T = 3.96 + 282.99 = 286.95
If C = 385, Then T = 4.62 + 282.99 = 287.61

Problem:
While my presumed relationship between T and C is very accurate for the years 1976 and 2007, it is not as accurate for the in between years. Furthermore, I cannot prove that C actually causes T to the same extent I presumed. Also, if C were to increase (or decrease) significantly in futures years, I will probably find that my presumed relationship is not accurate for those future years.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 09:49 pm
You don't know a damn thing about statistics, do you ican?

If you want to claim that CO2 has no relationship then you have to account for ALL other variables. You have not done so. If the output of the sun is a component of warming then you have to show that the sun's output was the same for all those years if you want to claim those years show CO2 isn't accurate.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 11:29 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Well, many think different - one of the main topics in our (local) churches (both evangelical as well as catholic) here is ... saving energy to save God's nature.


I wasn't talking about pros and cons of energy savings. I was talking about what humankind is capable of surviving regarding climate change when humankind is forced to survive and that we are certainly capable of doing whatever is necessary to do that now better than humans were during former largescale climate change. And that has absolutely nothing to do with Hitler or plagues or wars etc.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Feb, 2008 11:24 am
Comparing fractions of a degree in climate change to something like Hitler is truly an out of whack comparison. Besides, since when did the climate ever stay static, and since when could we ever control climate? Thanks to the allies, Hitler was finally stopped from murdering a few more tens of millions. Bizarre comparison by Walter, indeed.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Feb, 2008 12:43 pm
parados wrote:

...

If you want to claim that CO2 has no relationship then you have to account for ALL other variables. You have not done so. If the output of the sun is a component of warming then you have to show that the sun's output was the same for all those years if you want to claim those years show CO2 isn't accurate.


You show that you have considerable difficulty understanding written English.

I wrote:

Let:
T = global temperature in degrees Kelvin.
C = CO2 in the atmosphere in ppm
Y = Any Year 1976 thru 2007

Assume:
C = C76 + Y x 55/31.
T = T76 + Y x 0.66/31

C76 = 330.0
T76 = 286.95
...

T = 0.0120C + 282.99

Problem:
While my presumed relationship between T and C is very accurate for the years 1976 and 2007, it is not as accurate for the in between years. Furthermore, I cannot prove that C actually causes T to the same extent I presumed. Also, if C were to increase (or decrease) significantly in futures years, I will probably find that my presumed relationship is not accurate for those future years.

---

In posting the above, I was analyzing my presumed relationship between T and C. I did not say or imply there is no relationship between T and C. I did not say or imply the sun's radiation output 1976 thru 2007 was constant or otherwise was an insignificant factor contributing to the value of T.

I did imply that people competent in algebra can come up with a relationship between T and C that is valid for selected years, but is not necessarily valid for a period between or greater than the years selected. By that I implied, that merely asserting that C causes T says nothing about the degree to which C or anything else causes T.

I think the sun contributes significantly to T fluctuations global region to global region, hour to hour, season to season, year to year, and sunspot cycle to sunspot cycle. I think the primary cause of CO2 ppm changes in the atmosphere is the temperature of the Oceans whose waters are rich in CO2. I think human caused emissions of CO2 are trivial by comparison.

However, I cannot prove any of that, and no one thus far has proven any differently.

Rather than spending your time here criticizing my views, why not try to prove your views (whatever they are) are the more valid views. I suggest these words of caution: you cannot prove your views are more valid merely by quoting someone (no matter what their credentials) whose views are qualified with words like:
possibly, perhaps, looks like, maybe, seems to be, could be ...
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Feb, 2008 04:30 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:

It's amazing the gambles some are willing to take in the long run with the enviorment, but never on other issues, such as social ones.
The gamblers are those who want to risk billions $ in a ressource scarce world for unknown results to "stabilize the climate", a trade war with the Chinese or the Indian, the energy policy decisions dictated by corrupt UN's non-elected bureaucrats for a global gouvernance to comply with a central planning protocol which has PROVED to be an utter failure.
Talk about the precautionnary principle Shocked
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Feb, 2008 04:47 pm
miniTAX wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

It's amazing the gambles some are willing to take in the long run with the enviorment, but never on other issues, such as social ones.
The gamblers are those who want to risk billions $ in a ressource scarce world for unknown results to "stabilize the climate", a trade war with the Chinese or the Indian, the energy policy decisions dictated by corrupt UN's non-elected bureaucrats for a global gouvernance to comply with a central planning protocol which has PROVED to be an utter failure.
Talk about the precautionnary principle Shocked


Same people will risk billions EVERY MONTH on war with hardly a second thought. That's exactly what I mean.

Billions is nothing in world terms. 100 billion dollars isn't even 1/30th of our proposed budget next year. To claim that it's not worth spending money on the future to try and hedge our bets against catastrophe is ridiculous.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
 

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