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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 01:33 pm
In the long run I believe our only reliable solutions are solar and nuclear fusion. Biofuels, wind, and hydroelectrical power will play enduring minor roles, but the first two are our only long-term reliable sources. Unfortunately neither is technologically ready, and much more investigation, innovation and experimentation will be required to make them viable.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 02:43 pm
foxfire wrote :

Quote:
However, I am already seeing the escalation of wind farms across Eastern New Mexico and West Texas and this escalation is producing some definite eyesores blocking once magnificent views.


i can list a lot of EYESORES ... but my question is : do these eyesores cause any asthma or other lung diseases ?

(i'll be posting an article on the increased health costs of pollution some time later) .

as far as nuclear plants are concerned , there is certainly one word i will NEVER forget CHERNOBYL !
while in north-america we hardly noticed the fallout from chernobyl , it was a different story in europe !
here is just a brief overview of the fallout from the chernobyl disaster , if anyone's memory needs a refresher .
CHERNOBYL FALLOUT

if anyone wants to tell me that it could NEVER happen again , i wonder why my insurance company EXCLUDES claims for damage from nuclear incidents ?

there certainly have been plenty of NEAR accidents . my completely unscientific opinion is that nuclear power is certainly not a safe source of power AT THIS TIME - i might change my mind when the insurance companies do .

this is only somewhat related , but it is an example how difficult it still is - even for top scientists - to deal with nuclear reactors and their frailties .

NUCLEAR SAFETY ISSUE AT REACTOR
from the above linked article (see full story at link)
Quote:


the current chalk river reactor - producing much of the isotopes for medical use around the world - had been closed down already for a major upgrade upon orders of the nuclear safety board . canada's minister of health ordered it to be re-opened AGAINST the advice of the nuclear safety board !

Quote:
Chalk River reactor returns to service
TheStar.com - Canada - Chalk River reactor returns to service


TORONTO STAR FILE PHOTO
A nuclear reactor, owned and operated by Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. at its Chalk River laboratory (above), was shut down on Nov. 18 for scheduled maintenance. Will begin producing medical isotopes within four days, says AECL

December 17, 2007
OTTAWA - The Chalk River nuclear reactor, offline since mid-November, started back in service yesterday morning and is expected to begin producing medical isotopes within four days, Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd said.

The reactor makes more than two-thirds of global supply of the radioisotopes used in cancer tests. Shortages were quickly triggered last month when the reactor was shut down.

The reactor was supposed to be closed from Nov. 18 to Nov. 23 for planned maintenance, but the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission refused to let it be restarted without an upgrade on the cooling pumps that prevent the reactor core from melting down.

The commission had discovered that AECL had been operating the reactor for 17 months without a battery-operated starter on the pumps, which the commission said was a condition of renewing the 50-year-old reactor's licence.

AECL spokesperson Dale Coffin said the Crown corporation voluntarily extended the maintenance shutdown to address the safety commission's concerns.

"We're still operating very safely and the reactor with the new upgrade in place already is even safer," said David Torgerson, the president of Atomic Energy of Canada's research and technology division.

Parliament pushed through legislation Wednesday to bypass the commission's objections and get the reactor back online.

Meanwhile, the Conservative government says it's just a coincidence the AECL chairman quit last week following a furor over the shutdown of the reactor.

Health Minister Tony Clement said Michael Burns thought the chairman's post was a part-time one when he took it a year ago.

"As it turns out, there's a lot of work to be done," Clement said yesterday on CTV's Question Period. "So I think there were some indications this (resignation) might be coming up."

Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced the departure of Burns, a former Tory party fundraiser, in a terse news release late Friday.

The Tories appointed former Ontario bureaucrat Glenna Carr as the new chairman and named business executive Hugh MacDiarmid as chief executive officer.


source :
CHALK RIVER REACTOR

(there have been plenty of jokes about canada's health minister in the newspapers . of course , he was between a rock and a hard stone , since hospitals had already started to close down their equipment and patients waiting for diagnostic services were livid .
imo the nuclear safety issue is not quite as clear cut as we are made to believe) .
hbg
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 02:52 pm
And even allowing for Chernobyl which was of defective design and probably was cursed with sloppy management, and the occasional 'mishap' involving other nuclear reactors, not one of which, except for Chernobyl, has produced any known injury or illness, nuclear has proved to be one of the cleanest, safest, efficient, and most environmentally friendly sources of energy yet devised.

With competent design and management, it could virtually eliminate the need for fossil fuels and all those allergies too.

I think most objections may be based more on prejudice than on rational assessment.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 03:12 pm
Quote:
With competent design and management, it could virtually eliminate the need for fossil fuels and all those allergies too.


that does not sound unreasonable to me . it seems , however , that some of the safety issues have not been resolved yet , not even for some of the nuclear scientists responsble for the oversight .

certainly makes me just a little uneasy !

considering the possible damage that could result from a malfunction , i'm not all all convinced of the safety - and neither are the insurance companies !
hbg
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 03:20 pm
hamburger wrote:
Quote:
With competent design and management, it could virtually eliminate the need for fossil fuels and all those allergies too.


that does not sound unreasonable to me . it seems , however , that some of the safety issues have not been resolved yet , not even for some of the nuclear scientists responsble for the oversight .

certainly makes me just a little uneasy !

considering the possible damage that could result from a malfunction , i'm not all all convinced of the safety - and neither are the insurance companies !
hbg


But don't you think the public will demand competent design, regulation, and management of nuclear facilities sufficient to calm the fears of even the insurance companies? Given the advantages, why aren't we putting our time, energy, money, and other resources into that given the proven assurance of a positive payoff for our efforts rather than focusing on energy sources that may be ecologically friendly, but which realistically will not feasiably solve our energy needs?
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 03:54 pm
hamburger wrote:
that does not sound unreasonable to me . it seems , however , that some of the safety issues have not been resolved yet , not even for some of the nuclear scientists responsble for the oversight .

certainly makes me just a little uneasy !

considering the possible damage that could result from a malfunction , i'm not all all convinced of the safety - and neither are the insurance companies !
hbg



The perception might also be different depending on how densely populated a country is. If you can put a nuclear power plant anywhere without it ending up in somebody's back yard rather than some hundred miles away, people might be more alert.

Pertinent point: the recent study of the German Federal Radiation Protection Agency.

Quote:
Study Finds More Childhood Cancer Near Nuclear Power Plants

Children living near nuclear power stations are more likely to suffer leukemia than those living farther away, a report funded by the German government has found, according to German media.

"Our study confirmed that in Germany a connection has been observed between the distance of a domicile to the nearest nuclear power plant ... and the risk of developing cancer, such as leukemia, before the fifth birthday," the daily Süddeutsche Zeitung quoted the report as saying.

Government radiation specialists said they could not explain the finding, since there was no direct radiation from the 16 German plants, which are all scheduled for closure in the early 2020s.

The study was paid for by the German Federal Radiation Protection Agency [BfS] the government's main adviser on nuclear health.

It was conducted by the German Register of Child Cancer, an office in Mainz which is funded by the 16 German states and the federal Health Ministry.

The study found that 37 children had come down with leukemia in the period between 1980 and 2003 while having home addresses within 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) of nuclear power plants. The statistical average for Germany would have predicted just 17 cases in that group.

Statistically, the 20 extra cases could be associated with living close to the plants, but the BfS said more research was needed to discover if the presence of reactors was actually the cause of the cancers.



After the results were first published, German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel had the findings analysed, but data and methodology were found to be sound. No explication to the correlation between distance to a nuclear power plant and likelihood to suffer leukemia has been found so far. No increased radiation levels were found; in some cases the radiation levels found in the immediate neighborhood of a nuclear power plant were even lower than natural radiation levels in other areas.

Quite a bit of a mystery, really.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 04:56 pm
No more of a mystery than the finding that cancer rates among U.S. radiation workers are lower than that of the general population.

When the basic rates in question are very small the likelihod of uncontrolled variables significantly altering the data is very high. In addition, given the relative disparity in the sample sizes (total children and those living near nuclear plants) it would be interesting to know the statistical confidence interval in the results.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 05:07 pm
Then we're back to the lower cost alternative of petroleum generated energy and development of domestic reserves. That only threatens more CO2 in the atmosphere, which may prove a blessing if the earth turns cool again.

According to:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

Back in 1909, the average annual global temperature was at a low of 14.436C or (32+25.98) = 57.98F.

In 1998, the average annual global temperature was at a high of 15.546C or (32+27.98) = 59.98F, a 2 degree Fahrenheit increase over 98 years.

For the 11 month period January 2007 to November 2007, the average global temperature was 15.414C or (32+27.75) = 59.75F, a 0.23 degree Fahrenheit decrease over the first 11 months of 2007.

Anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the 12 month period January 2007 to December 2007?

More importantly, anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the year 2017?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 05:18 pm
ican711nm wrote:
Then we're back to the lower cost alternative of petroleum generated energy and development of domestic reserves. That only threatens more CO2 in the atmosphere, which may prove a blessing if the earth turns cool again.

According to:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

Back in 1909, the average annual global temperature was at a low of 14.436C or (32+25.98) = 57.98F.

In 1998, the average annual global temperature was at a high of 15.546C or (32+27.98) = 59.98F, a 2 degree Fahrenheit increase over 98 years.

For the 11 month period January 2007 to November 2007, the average global temperature was 15.414C or (32+27.75) = 59.75F, a 0.23 degree Fahrenheit decrease over the first 11 months of 2007.

Anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the 12 month period January 2007 to December 2007?

More importantly, anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the year 2017?


Petroleum-generated energy also contributes a significant amount of waste products other then CO2 into our ecosystem, often toxic in nature; there are many reasons to oppose the widespread usage of fossil fuels to generate energy independent of any GW concerns.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 05:48 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Then we're back to the lower cost alternative of petroleum generated energy and development of domestic reserves. That only threatens more CO2 in the atmosphere, which may prove a blessing if the earth turns cool again.

According to:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

Back in 1909, the average annual global temperature was at a low of 14.436C or (32+25.98) = 57.98F.

In 1998, the average annual global temperature was at a high of 15.546C or (32+27.98) = 59.98F, a 2 degree Fahrenheit increase over 98 years.

For the 11 month period January 2007 to November 2007, the average global temperature was 15.414C or (32+27.75) = 59.75F, a 0.23 degree Fahrenheit decrease over the first 11 months of 2007.

Anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the 12 month period January 2007 to December 2007?

More importantly, anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the year 2017?


Petroleum-generated energy also contributes a significant amount of waste products other then CO2 into our ecosystem, often toxic in nature; there are many reasons to oppose the widespread usage of fossil fuels to generate energy independent of any GW concerns.

Cycloptichorn

Human life expectancies have increased significantly over the last 100 years inspite of those alleged toxic waste products from Petroleum-generated energy.

I admittedly haven't kept up with nuclear waste disposal technology. But back in the 1960s, nuclear waste was highly toxic and very difficult and expensive to dispose of safely.

I'll check into it.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 05:51 pm
ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Then we're back to the lower cost alternative of petroleum generated energy and development of domestic reserves. That only threatens more CO2 in the atmosphere, which may prove a blessing if the earth turns cool again.

According to:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

Back in 1909, the average annual global temperature was at a low of 14.436C or (32+25.98) = 57.98F.

In 1998, the average annual global temperature was at a high of 15.546C or (32+27.98) = 59.98F, a 2 degree Fahrenheit increase over 98 years.

For the 11 month period January 2007 to November 2007, the average global temperature was 15.414C or (32+27.75) = 59.75F, a 0.23 degree Fahrenheit decrease over the first 11 months of 2007.

Anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the 12 month period January 2007 to December 2007?

More importantly, anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the year 2017?


Petroleum-generated energy also contributes a significant amount of waste products other then CO2 into our ecosystem, often toxic in nature; there are many reasons to oppose the widespread usage of fossil fuels to generate energy independent of any GW concerns.

Cycloptichorn

Human life expectancies have increased significantly over the last 100 years inspite of those alleged toxic waste products from Petroleum-generated energy.

I admittedly haven't kept up with nuclear waste disposal technology. But back in the 1960s, nuclear waste was highly toxic and very difficult and expensive to dispose of safely.

I'll check into it.


Imagine what the life expectancies could be without the waste? Somewhat higher, I have no doubt.

Nuclear waste is difficult to dispose of, but conveniently, there's much less of it.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 05:53 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
When the basic rates in question are very small the likelihod of uncontrolled variables significantly altering the data is very high. In addition, given the relative disparity in the sample sizes (total children and those living near nuclear plants) it would be interesting to know the statistical confidence interval in the results.


Well, no conclusions have been drawn so far. However, this is the third in a series of studies that rendered similar results. It's also conclusive with British studies from 1987 and 1989 that showed a statistically significant increased risk for children of developing leukemia if they were living within a 10 miles radius of nuclear power plants in England and Wales.

The current study covers a period of 23 years (1980-2003). The study included all 16 counties where the 22 German nuclear power plants are located. All cases of children up to 5 years who were living in the regions around the nuclear power plants and who were diagnosed with cancer within that time period were included (1,592 cases in total), as well as 4,735 controls.

For each case of cancer, controls (children of same sex and age as those diagnosed with cancer) were randomly chosen via registration offices. Distance of residence relative to the nuclear power plant was then determined with an accuracy of 25 meters for all 6,327 children.

The study was tested by computing the results, dropping one of the 16 locations each round to check against increased risk for only one specific location. No influence on the results was noticed, though. In a follow-up test, the inner 5km perimeter was omitted. However, it still rendered an increasing trend of leukemia cases relative to the distance from a nuclear power plant.

(more info here, complete study here - both in German, though)
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 05:56 pm
Quote:
But don't you think the public will demand competent design, regulation, and management of nuclear facilities sufficient to calm the fears of even the insurance companies? Given the advantages, why aren't we putting our time, energy, money, and other resources into that given the proven assurance of a positive payoff for our efforts rather than focusing on energy sources that may be ecologically friendly, but which realistically will not feasiably solve our energy needs?


again , i think i can agree with you . i doubt , however , that any commercial enterprise has the resources to fully develop a safe system .
perhaps it requires another (government) program , similar to the "manhattan project" or the space program to achieve that .
even just thinking about the space program , i understand that it has paid its cost many times in the many industrial and medical discoveries and procedures that have grown out of it .
not being a scientist or economist , i can't quantify it . i do wonder if such studies have ever been undertaken . it just seems strange to me that one hears next to nothing about any scientific research dealing with it .
even as a canadian , i was quite interested when the space program started - and i was really quite proud when i was able to see canada's SPACE ARM (admittedly a small contribution) when visiting the kennedy space center .
here in canada , some of canada's astronauts are visiting schools quite regularly to talk to the students about their experiences and accomplishments . one of our local schools was even able to send some seeds along on a space trip to test the influence of space on those seeds , but other than that , it seems unusually quiet .

no doubt about it in my mind , the war in iraq and afghanistan and other world problems are getting top billing right now - and have perhaps for far too long .
hbg
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 06:12 pm
CORRECTIONS

According to:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

The lowest average annual global temperature for the years 1850 to the present occurred in 1911 (not 1909) and was (15-0.581) = 14.419C or (32+25.95) = 57.95F.

The highest average annual global temperature for the years 1850 to the present occurred in 1998 and was 15.546C or (32+27.98) = 59.98F, a 2.03 degree Fahrenheit increase over 96 years.

For the 11 month period January 2007 to November 2007, the average global temperature was 15.414C or (32+27.75) = 59.75F, a 0.23 degree Fahrenheit decrease since 1998.

Anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the 12 month period January 2007 to December 2007?

More importantly, anyone want to make any bets for what the average global temperature will turn out to be for the year 2017?[/quote]
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 06:21 pm
okie wrote:


I think it was MM posted a link (a few pages back) to somebodys report on over 600 things reportedly caused by global warming, Walter, ranging from the sublime to the ridiculous, and many of them contradictory. It wouldn't surprise me to see a report one of these days that will assert that global warming will cause better health, leading to over population and pending disaster from that.

Much of this is due to an obsession by people that need to justify their research dollars and jobs, in my opinion.

I find it humorous as well that the title says "could decline" rather than "will decline." My response is -- well, do tell. Health could decline, stay the same, or increase? Great research there. Temperatures could decline, stay the same, or increase, a scientific paper is surely needed to report such startling news.


Here is the post you are talking about, along with links to the sources.


Quote:
I found a website that really makes it hard to take global warming seriously.
It lists about 600 things that have been blamed on global warming, including several that contradict each other.

Such as this one...

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050629_fresh_water.html

Quote:
Since the late 1960s, much of the North Atlantic Ocean has become less salty, in part due to increases in fresh water runoff induced by global warming, scientists say.


That article is directly contradicted by this one...

http://environment.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn12528&feedId=online-news_rss20

Quote:
This is because saltier waters in the upper levels of the North Atlantic ocean may mean that the global ocean conveyor belt - the vital piece of planetary plumbing which some scientists fear may slow down because of global warming - will remain stable.


So, is the Atlantic getting saltier or not?

Of course, GW is getting blamed for everything now, including the fact that circumcisions are on the decline in part of Africa...

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/11/02/circumcision-rates-africa-decline-because-global-warming#comments

Now here...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1816860.stm

It says that the earth is slowing down its spin due to global warming.

But here...

http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn11555-global-warming-will-make-earth-spin-faster.html

It says that the earth is spinning FASTER due to global warming.

So tell me, which is true?
Is the earth spinning faster or slower?

For your education and amusement, here is a list of about 600 different things that global warming is being blamed for...

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

If you read the list, you will see that many of them contradict each other.
With all of these things being blamed on global warming, it really makes it tough to take the GW crowd seriously.


That was originally Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 20:03 Post: 2967904 -
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 06:46 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:

...
ican711nm wrote:
Human life expectancies have increased significantly over the last 100 years inspite of those alleged toxic waste products from Petroleum-generated energy.

I admittedly haven't kept up with nuclear waste disposal technology. But back in the 1960s, nuclear waste was highly toxic and very difficult and expensive to dispose of safely.

I'll check into it.


Imagine what the life expectancies could be without the waste? Somewhat higher, I have no doubt.

Nuclear waste is difficult to dispose of, but conveniently, there's much less of it.

Cycloptichorn

Whether or not life expectancies would be higher if we hadn't used petroleum generated energy, depends on what we might have chosen instead and what we do choose in future instead.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 07:00 pm
Quote:

I wonder how much more nuclear waste the Yucca Mountain can store safely, and how much waste will be produced annually in the USA if we were to shift from petroleum to nuclear generated power. I'll look that up too.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 07:09 pm
Quote:
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 07:22 pm
One of the reasons that coal and other fossil fuel plants are considered cheap, is the fact that one does not take into account the environmental impact of the waste produced - it is omitted from the cost as if it does not exist, when it most certainly does. Once the full picture is looked at, solar starts becoming a lot more viable.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/technology/18solar.html?_r=1&oref=login

Quote:
Start-Up Sells Solar Panels at Lower-Than-Usual CostNanosolar's founder and chief executive, Martin Roscheisen, claims to be the first solar panel manufacturer to be able to profitably sell solar panels for less than $1 a watt. That is the price at which solar energy becomes less expensive than coal.

"With a $1-per-watt panel," he said, "it is possible to build $2-per-watt systems."

According to the Energy Department, building a new coal plant costs about $2.1 a watt, plus the cost of fuel and emissions, he said.


The first Nanosolar panels are destined for a one-megawatt solar plant to be installed in Germany on a former landfill owned by a waste management company. The plant, being developed by Beck Energy, is expected to initially supply electrical power for about 400 homes.

The company chose to build its plant in southern San Jose, news that was cheered by local development officials. Much of the microelectronics industry created here has moved to Asia and new factories are a rare commodity in Silicon Valley.


That seems pretty competitive to me. And this is merely the beginning. Why drill for more oil, when we know that solar is going to be a better, less pollutive, and more stable technology, not just in the long run but in the medium run?

One can look at a historical chart of efficiency increases and price decreases for solar panels, and see that we will most likely see increases in both of these. Why imagine that we will not? On the other hand, it is difficult to see an increase in the power output of fossil fuels any time soon.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Dec, 2007 07:32 pm
Quote:
That seems pretty competitive to me. And this is merely the beginning. Why drill for more oil, when we know that solar is going to be a better, less pollutive, and more stable technology, not just in the long run but in the medium run?


I agree about in the long and medium run, but its the short run we should be concerned about.

I 100% agree that solar, nuclear, wind and other alternative fuels are required, the problem I have is that until those are developed AND made economically feasible we still need oil.

The best analogy I can come up is a bathtub.
We need to find other ways to fill it besides a faucet, but until we do find and develop those ways we still need to use the faucet.
We are emptying the bathtub, and no matter how slowly you empty it, unless you fill it up it will eventually be empty.

For the short term, we need to develop AND exploit domestic sources of oil, in ANWR, oil shale, offshore, or anyplace else in US territory we can find oil.

I would be in favor of capping every well in the US, once alternative sources become economically viable.
I dont see that happening in the next few years though.
0 Replies
 
 

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