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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 09:40 am
We have rather tuff environmental laws, here, yes.

Most like them - besides those criminals who disregard every and everyone rights.

I don't believe that any European country will introduce the capital punishment again - most here think such to be a medieval anarchy.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 01:44 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
....................

I don't believe that any European country will introduce the capital punishment again - most here think such to be a medieval anarchy.


Not so, Walter, Switzerland does have the death penalty on the books - for high treason at wartime. The law hasn't been tested in some time, however, last war being 7 centuries ago with no reports of traitors reaching us down the line.
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old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 01:51 pm
High Seas wrote:
Not so, Walter, Switzerland does have the death penalty on the books - for high treason at wartime. The law hasn't been tested in some time, however, last war being 7 centuries ago with no reports of traitors reaching us down the line.


Really? I thought they'd done away with that in 1992....
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 02:02 pm
Old Europe - am fairly certain on the facts surrounding the death of a Russian in Zurich years ago: he is the first person in forensics history to have committed suicide by holding his head underwater in his hotel's bathtub.

The spirit of the original law certainly prevails - and mind you, the unfortunate Russian accident victim could hardly be accused of treason by the Swiss, since he was never a citizen or even resident.

The wording may have been changed somewhat in 1992 but "de jure" means nothing in this particular case Smile
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 02:03 pm
PS however I admit to sloppy wording in my original observation to Walter - sorry.
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old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 02:07 pm
High Seas wrote:
Old Europe - am fairly certain on the facts surrounding the death of a Russian in Zurich years ago: he is the first person in forensics history to have committed suicide by holding his head underwater in his hotel's bathtub.


Well.... yes. That'd require some acrobatic skills, wouldn't it?

<smiles>
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 02:09 pm
High Seas wrote:
Old Europe - am fairly certain on the facts surrounding the death of a Russian in Zurich years ago: he is the first person in forensics history to have committed suicide by holding his head underwater in his hotel's bathtub.

The spirit of the original law certainly prevails - and mind you, the unfortunate Russian accident victim could hardly be accused of treason by the Swiss, since he was never a citizen or even resident.

The wording may have been changed somewhat in 1992 but "de jure" means nothing in this particular case Smile

Swiss Federation - Constitution

Quote:
Article 10 Right to Life and Personal Freedom
(1) Every person has the right to life. The death penalty is prohibited.
(2) Every person has the right to personal liberty, namely to corporal and mental integrity and freedom of movement.
(3) Torture and any other form of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment are prohibited.


The death penalty was only existing in the Military Law until 1992.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 02:16 pm
Thank you, Walter, and kindly refer to my previous comments / qualifications / yeah, even an apology! above yours.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 03:12 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:

I don't believe that any European country will introduce the capital punishment again - most here think such to be a medieval anarchy.


Medieval Walter??? The murderousness of European nationalism, sectarian wars, class struggles, and authoritarianism increased very significantly after the Middle Ages which were a relatively peaceful period, compared to what has followed..

Indeed a very good case can be made suggesting that it was only after the Enlightenment that the full scope of European war, revolution, murder and genocide was unleashed. The worst crimes of Europe all occurred in the modern era.

Do you really believe Europe has ascended into a new era of peaceful enlightenment in which reason and restraint will control all the worst human impulses?? I find this conversion of Europeans a too recent thing to yet be of any enduring historical meaning. Europe is emerging from a 50 year period of amazing prosperity during which it stood aside from most of the ongoing conflicts in the world. Those happy conditions are not likely to continue for another 50 years. Don't confuse the lack of temptation with real virtue.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 03:16 pm
You can be sure, George, that I haven't forgotten everything from what I heard, learnt and studied at three university's history departments :wink:
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 03:20 pm
Then I will assume you agree with me.
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old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 03:32 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
the Middle Ages which were a relatively peaceful period, compared to what has followed..


Don't know. The collapse of the Roman Empire? The Muslim conquests? The destruction of the Carolingian Empire? The crusades? The Hundred Years' War? I'm not sure if I'd call that a "peaceful period."


georgeob1 wrote:
Indeed a very good case can be made suggesting that it was only after the Enlightenment that the full scope of European war, revolution, murder and genocide was unleashed. The worst crimes of Europe all occurred in the modern era.


Well, arguably, if you look at the number of victims as percentage of the total population, I'm not sure that the Second World War was more devastating than e.g. the Thirty Years' War. Which was clearly pre-Enlightenment, and could technically even be called a Religious War (Even though religion was often only a disguise for political ambitions. Not that too much has changed since then...).
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Aug, 2007 03:44 pm
old europe wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
the Middle Ages which were a relatively peaceful period, compared to what has followed..


Don't know. The collapse of the Roman Empire? The Muslim conquests? The destruction of the Carolingian Empire? The crusades? The Hundred Years' War? I'm not sure if I'd call that a "peaceful period."


I agree, not entirely peaceful, but the wars were less murderous and destructive than what followed.


old europe wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
Indeed a very good case can be made suggesting that it was only after the Enlightenment that the full scope of European war, revolution, murder and genocide was unleashed. The worst crimes of Europe all occurred in the modern era.


Well, arguably, if you look at the number of victims as percentage of the total population, I'm not sure that the Second World War was more devastating than e.g. the Thirty Years' War. Which was clearly pre-Enlightenment, and could technically even be called a Religious War (Even though religion was often only a disguise for political ambitions. Not that too much has changed since then...).


You are correct in that I failed to distinguish between the end of the Middle Ages (which to some extent was marked by the Thirty Years War and the Enlightenment (as it ultimately reached France and Germany) - probably I should have written "modern Era" instead. The thirty years war was indeed very destructive, and, in terms of its effects on Europe, somewhat similar to the war of 1914 - 1945, which one day may be called the second thirty years war.

I agree with you in the general proposition -- not too much has changed.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Aug, 2007 06:16 pm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20122975/site/newsweek/

Newsweek article on the industry operations organizing and funding the GW denial campaigns.

As the writer notes, these fellows have taken a successful strategy used by the tobacco industry to delay/eviscerate government and citizen action which might jeopardize their operations by suggesting that "the science is unclear" (that smoking has negative health consequences). The most recent NY Review of Books has an excellent essay on this aspect of the tobacco industy's PR strategy but that article is behind a pay wall.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Aug, 2007 06:39 pm
page 1 of a 3 page report by toronto's "globe and mail" - a business newspaper not known for sensational reporting - on the unique challenges facing alaska as a result of a general global warming trend .
pls go to link for full report .
all in all , a pretty sobering view i'd say .
hbg

Quote:
Alaska's great glaciers are melting away. Some of the smaller ones have completely disappeared in the past few decades, and while many of the bigger ones will be around for a while yet, their yearly retreat is stunning nonetheless.

Alaska has warmed more quickly than any other place on the planet in the past 50 to 75 years, climate-change experts say. It holds a negligible lead over Yukon (canada) , which faces many of the same global-warming-induced challenges.

Statewide temperatures have increased about four degrees Celsius since 1950. There is a range of predictions for how warm it will get here in the coming years, but the most commonly used model sees temperatures rising by between three and six degrees by the end of the century and even more dramatically (up to eight degrees) along the coast, according to John Walsh, director of the Centre for Global Change at the University of Alaska.Not all the warming can be attributed to the rise in greenhouse-gas emissions. There has also been an El Nino-like shift in wind patterns, a phenomenon known as Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The patterns in the waters surrounding Alaska go through a transition every 20 to 30 years, and their effect on the region lasts much longer than El Nino's does elsewhere. The last major wind-pattern shift here was back in the late 1970s, which pumped up temperatures by a degree or two.

Add to that temperature increases due to manmade global warming, and in a place such as Alaska you suddenly have a unique set of challenges.

According to a recent University of Alaska study, climate change could add as much as $6-billion to what is now expected to be the $40-billion cost of building and maintaining public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030.

Alaska's roads, buildings, railroads and airports are all going to cost more to replace in part because the foundation upon which they are built is turning into sludge. That once permanently frozen subsoil - permafrost - is thawing.

"This is a huge issue for the state," said Peter Larsen, co-author of the report by the Institute of Social and Economic Research. "Canadians should be interested in this issue as well because a place like the Yukon faces the same challenges.

"What is going to happen to the permafrost when temperatures go above freezing? The airport in Nome is having a severe problem with thawing permafrost, and there are people from the state's Department of Transportation on the ground there trying to deal with the fact that the runway is facing a serious problem."




MELTING GLACIERS - NEW CHALLENGES
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Aug, 2007 07:01 pm
blatham wrote:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20122975/site/newsweek/

Newsweek article on the industry operations organizing and funding the GW denial campaigns.

As the writer notes, these fellows have taken a successful strategy used by the tobacco industry to delay/eviscerate government and citizen action which might jeopardize their operations by suggesting that "the science is unclear" (that smoking has negative health consequences). The most recent NY Review of Books has an excellent essay on this aspect of the tobacco industy's PR strategy but that article is behind a pay wall.

Come on blatham, apples and oranges. To suggest that man caused global warming is just as verified as lung cancer from smoking is a big stretch. Even my grandfather called cigarettes coffin nails a hundred years ago. Common sense would tell you there is no comparison. If anyone has a PR strategy, it is the environmentalist whackos in regard to this global warming crisis.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Aug, 2007 10:01 am
okie wrote
Quote:
Come on blatham, apples and oranges. To suggest that man caused global warming is just as verified as lung cancer from smoking is a big stretch.
Perhaps a re-read will clarify for you that I didn't say that. I recommend also not a re-read but a first-read of the Newsweek article but you don't demonstrate any habit of accessing sources which won't likely support your worldview.
Quote:
Even my grandfather called cigarettes coffin nails a hundred years ago.

Grandpa said so in 1907? Perhaps he noted his thoughts in wet clay.
Quote:
Common sense would tell you there is no comparison. If anyone has a PR strategy, it is the environmentalist whackos in regard to this global warming crisis.

I really don't have any interest in following up on this stuff with you. I can't imagine any set of data from any source which finds in a direction other than what your preferences/ideology demands that you would ever accept.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Aug, 2007 08:43 pm
Newsweek is about as credible as the National Enquirer, blatham. I dropped my subscription years ago. I read the article, but the photo of mudcracks where water had stood somewhere is a tipoff as to the scientific qualifications of the article, which are virtually nil. All political, which is nothing new.

Here are a couple of pertinent links. First author Christopher Horner's comments on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8w2HxUWdQEs

Also, will it take a bunch of bloggers to keep NASA honest? Not only does this article discuss 1934 being the warmest year in the U.S. instead of 1998 as commonly reported, but it also discusses the heat island effect which has been downplayed, but obviously is a significant factor. People are now beginning to document the erroneous conditions that cause erroneous temperature recordings at many weather stations. Yes, the internet is truly a beautiful thing in regard to some issues. Information cannot be doctored and boilerhoused without somebody figuring it out.

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog

Last but not least, when this whole global warming issue arose many years ago, my first thought was - do we really have enough reliable data with similar conditions from enough places around the world that can even tell us what the globe is doing in fractions of a degree? After all, only one of my questions figured the globe is not going to uniformly heat up or cool down, but there will be shifts and concentrations of change one way or the other, or both, in regions of the world, as orchestrated by the shifts and paths of weather systems, as relates to the ocean and many other factors. Then as this whole thing gathered steam, I kind of relented to the idea that perhaps the scientists must have a fair handle on it to be roughly correct about the temperature trends, although I suspected more land use influence than generally considered.

Now, I think I am going to back up, as I may resort to my first gut reactions about temperature records. Enough good temperature records from around the world that have consistently been recorded accurately under similar conditions are I think a big stretch. And I read that the so-called scientists interpolate temperatures for desert areas, per elevation from known stations, after all - we don't really have good spatial coverage of temperatures around the globe now, let alone decades ago. Perhaps attempts to figure this all out might be okay, but to make grand conclusions as to trends of less than 1 degree are not what I would call very statistically accurate or significant.

If we resort to looking at a weather station with one of the longest records, and with similar conditions for the duration, look at Mt. Armagh in Northern Ireland, and the following graph shows temperatures roughly the same in the year 2000 as it was in 1950, as well as around 1850, certainly within only a very small fraction of a degree C, and the current trend is not remarkably up, but rather on a bit of a plateau and showing no distinct trend as to which way it is headed.

To be accurate, there is no doubt that cycles exist, and that the temperatures are fluctuating, but so is precipitation and cloud cover, and everything else, little of which is very well documented at all, and all of which contribute to the scenario.

My suspicions are confirmed by many readings and observations, one being this site:

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/03/15/an-extreme-view-of-global-warming/

The sky is falling crowd, along with Al Gore can keep running off into the sunset, in total panic, but I am going to continue to harbor healthy skepticism, as so far the data does not appear to justify the former. We have not even established a very sound global system of recording of temperature and other weather patterns that have a sufficiently historical record to make grand pronouncements in fractions of a degree, let alone establish what is causing it.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Aug, 2007 06:59 pm
a report released in the online edition of the SCIENCE journal , claims that "Around the middle of the 19th century, the Arctic took a sooty turn for the worse " .
The arctic soot research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Desert Research Institute, Office of Naval Research and NASA .


Quote:
Soot blamed for ice melt

August 10, 2007

By Randolph E. Schmid
WASHINGTON/The Associated Press

Around the middle of the 19th century, the Arctic took a sooty turn for the worse, according to researchers studying how humans have affected the climate.
Soot can darken snow, causing it to absorb sunlight, warm up and melt. That, in turn, can add to local climate warming by exposing darker ground which absorbs energy from the sun that the white snow would have reflected.
Ice cores from before about 1850 show most soot came from forest fires. But since then, black soot in the snow has increased several times over and most now comes from industrial activities, according to a paper in yesterday's online edition of the journal
Science.


In a separate paper in that journal, a team of British researchers forecast that climate warming will slow for about a decade, then bounce back to record-setting temperatures.
That group added new detail to improve the accuracy of complex computer models that calculate changes in weather and climate to come up with their new outlook.
The soot study was done by a team led by Joseph McConnell of the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada.
The researchers analysed black carbon levels in ice from Greenland, covering the last 215 years.
They found that the older soot samples contained vanillic acid, an indicator of burning conifer trees.
In the more recent years, the soot was seven times more common and contained a larger concentration of non-ocean sulfur, an indicator of industrial emissions.
Soot concentrations peaked in 1906-10 and remained high for decades. Sulfur emissions declined following the Clean Air Act in 1970, they noted.
In the early 20th century, the Arctic warmed more than anywhere else on Earth, Richard Alley of the California Institute of Technology observes in a commentary on the report, noting a "broad correspondence between the soot peak and the observed warming."
Doug Smith and colleagues at the British Meteorological Office produced the improved climate model.
They added the effects of natural climate changes, such as the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, fluctuations in ocean circulation and anomalies in ocean heat content to their computer models.
In general, climate models have focused on the impact of outside factors such as solar radiation, atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases.
The new outlook calls for a slowdown in warming for the next few years, but then an increase again.
They forecast that at least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the warmest year to date according to the Met Office.
The U.S. National Climate Data Center ranked 2005 in a virtual tie with 1998.
The arctic soot research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Desert Research Institute, Office of Naval Research and NASA.
The climate forecasters were supported by the United Kingdom Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the U.K. Government Meteorological Research Programme.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Aug, 2007 09:28 pm
"Current global model studies project that the Antarctic ice sheet will remain too cold for widespread surface melting and is expected to gain in mass due to increased snowfall."

"Amazing - one would never suspect such conclusions given a cover story in National Geographic titled "THE BIG THAW.""


http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/07/17/global-warming-debate-upside-down-antarctic-update/
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