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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 11:45 am
Perhaps you should read the link, high seas. and perhaps you should reread your own posts. I believe English is not your first language. Your post of 12:02 says that tectonic plates motion is up to 10 orders of magnitude less than e.g. wind effects. That's what it says the way you phrase it. I assume you meant it the other way around. However that's not how you said it.

In either case, you are obviously unfamiliar with what the NASA report is saying. The only Richter scale measurement I can see in there is a 7.2 quake triggered by the melting of a glacier in 1979. AS THE REPORT SAYS, active mountain-forming areas are where tectonic plates collide. Glaciers sitting on top of them damp the motion of the plates. When the glaciers melt, they can move. It's a double whammy. And a 7.2 quake is something on the order of 4 or 5 times more intense than the 6.6 one that hit northern Japan yesterday, and caused significant damage there.

Further, the crust of the earth moves upward when the weight of glaciers is removed. This occurs for centuries after the melting. New England, among other places, is still slowly elevating, after 10,000 years, from the ending of the last ice age, one of the reasons we are earthquake prone (albeit usually minor ones), in a relatively stable plate area.

So hbg and old europe, on balance, are more accurate than your orders-of-magnitude rant.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 11:51 am
hamburger wrote:
high seas :
perhaps i should have been clearer in my comments .

it just seems to me that when okie looks at scientific reports , he dismisses the scientists as not having a clue .

and if something is demonstrated or taking place , he dismises it as NOT SCIENTIFIC .

btw from what i understand , there may well be a connection between global warming causing heavy rains which may cause landslides - but i am not a scientist - so i will leave it at that .
hbg

hamburger, my post was somewhat in jest, but on a serious note, I have been accused here of using anecdotal evidence in arguing my political points. I think anecdotal evidence is useful, if one uses it honestly and if it is based on anecdotes that are significant. I am not going to dismiss your post, but I thought a picture of a guy diving off an iceberg to prove global warming was somewhat humorous, so I really did not take it too serious as something scientific.

In regard to landslides, heavy rains, whatever, these have happened since time began. Have you ever visited the Grand Canyon? I am a few decades old, and remember floods, landslides, and all the rest, for my entire life, but have only recently heard scientists attempt to assign them to global warming. If someone can actually demonstrate intensity and frequency that are markedly different, then it might be worth looking at, but otherwise I would not give any credence to it. Also, landslides and floods are more likely now to affect people because there is more density of population, plus some very ill advised construction has placed improvements in obviously risky situations.

In regard to earthquakes, again, study history. Have you heard of the New Madrid quake?
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 11:53 am
Few things are more boring than quoting oneself, but given the assorted difficulties here I'll repeat what I said:

Quote:
The Richter scale is logarithmic; motions of the tectonic plates can't even begin to compare with motions resulting from increasing atmospheric pressure, melting snows, rainfall, or other sources of pressure on the top earth layers and the difference is of over 10 orders of magnitude.


The difference is what you're trying to understand? Or the orders of magnitude?
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 11:57 am
High Seas wrote:
maporsche wrote:
High Seas wrote:

Perhaps some elementary arithmetic may be assumed - though given the depths of ignorance displayed by some here said assumption seems overoptimistic - so: the first few numbers in both the Richter and Mercalli scales refer to ground effects relating to changes in atmospheric pressures and ground cover, while the higher magnitudes - logarithmic, got that, meaning that 12 is NOT equal to 2x6 !! - refer to movements of tectonic plates.



I do not see how anything you're posting is relevant to the article about Alaskan earthquakes.

Maybe you could connect the dots for me, and don't forget to call me a moron or mentally challenged.


Those of us who are mentally challenged, or morons, generally know about it and don't wait to be called those things. In any event don't wait for me to call you either one of them - I'm not a medical doctor.

If you have a question please state it plainly.



Fair enough.

Could you please explain to me how your post regarding earthquake magnitudes and increasing atmospheric pressure has anything to do with earthquakes in Alaska caused (or made possible) by receding glaciers.
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username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:02 pm
And I will repeat. The way you wrote that you are saying that melting snows have an effect ten orders of magnitude greater than tectonic plates. Do you really mean that? If so, your argument is nonsense.

And to repeat again, read the link. It is melting glaciers' damping effect on tectonic plates that triggers the quakes when the glaciers melt, in the main example they cite. The damned things are heavy. IT IS SYNERGISTIC.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:08 pm
username wrote:
And I will repeat. The way you wrote that you are saying that melting snows have an effect ten orders of magnitude greater than tectonic plates. Do you really mean that? If so, your argument is nonsense.



I reposted MY exact phrasing so you can see that the term DIFFERENCE says NOTHING about THE DIRECTION of the CHANGE, i.e. which way is GREATER or SMALLER.

Try reading more slowly before posting any additional opinions.
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username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:14 pm
I read it very slowly, becaus it didn't make any apparent sense. It still doesn't. Now you seem to be saying that tectonic plate movement could be either ten orders of magnitude greater, which is oh, let's see, ten billion times greater, an effect than melting snows, OR TEN BILLION TIMES SMALLER. That's is one very large difference. Look, you're the one that's writing something ambiguous. Disambiguate.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:21 pm
maporsche wrote:
High Seas wrote:
maporsche wrote:
High Seas wrote:

Perhaps some elementary arithmetic may be assumed - though given the depths of ignorance displayed by some here said assumption seems overoptimistic - so: the first few numbers in both the Richter and Mercalli scales refer to ground effects relating to changes in atmospheric pressures and ground cover, while the higher magnitudes - logarithmic, got that, meaning that 12 is NOT equal to 2x6 !! - refer to movements of tectonic plates.



I do not see how anything you're posting is relevant to the article about Alaskan earthquakes.

Maybe you could connect the dots for me, and don't forget to call me a moron or mentally challenged.


Those of us who are mentally challenged, or morons, generally know about it and don't wait to be called those things. In any event don't wait for me to call you either one of them - I'm not a medical doctor.

If you have a question please state it plainly.



Fair enough.

Could you please explain to me how your post regarding earthquake magnitudes and increasing atmospheric pressure has anything to do with earthquakes in Alaska caused (or made possible) by receding glaciers.


Thanks for the clarification, Maporsche. Changes in atmospheric pressure have long been known to induce ground motions - recall, please, that these air columns above us do weigh a lot. Summary of related article at:

Quote:
The hypothesis has been advanced that major portions of the annual pole motion are caused by the seasonal transport of air masses. These pole motions in turn can act as trigger forces on earthquakes.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/j853283v73808670/
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:33 pm
username wrote:
..........Disambiguate.


Username - tectonic plates motions cause continental drift, atmospheric pressures don't. Hope we're agreed on that statement. Therefore, the direction of the > or < should be obvious, but since you seem to find my original statement ambiguous I'm happy to clarify that movements in the tectonic plates would be expected to result in stronger earthquakes than any earthquakes caused by changes in atmospheric pressure or composition.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:37 pm
from the USGS

Quote:
The rate of spreading along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge averages about 2.5 centimeters per year (cm/yr), or 25 km in a million years.


now I have no idea if this is the average speed for all plate boundaries, I just picked it at random. But I would suggest its within an order of magnitude of the average.

Now someone here, Highseas I think is saying earth movement due to melting ice or changes in atmospheric pressure is 10 orders of magnitude greater than that from plate shift. 10 orders of magnitude. That is 1*10^10*2.5 centimetres /year. Or 2.5*10^8 m/yr

or 18 mph.

Smile
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username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:39 pm
Fine, that's what I thought you probably meant, however it's not what you said. And it is essentially irrelevant to the discussion here, since the whole point seems to be--and so far no one has offered anything to refute this--that glacier melting (caused by global warming, but for this part of the discussion that's not relevant)--can have a triggering effect on earthquakes (either because of relief of pressure on preexisting fault lines or from crustal rebound). And in the example cited, the result was an earthquake on the scale of the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906. Are we in agreement on that?
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:41 pm
Earthquake damages vary as functions of several variables in addition to magnitude, are we agreed on this? If so, pls proceed, I'm interested to see your reasoning.
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username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:46 pm
(Not quite as powerful as S.F. My memory was faulty. That was 7.7-7.9)
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 12:50 pm
username wrote:
(Not quite as powerful as S.F. My memory was faulty. That was 7.7-7.9)


No matter - what was the point you wanted to make?
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 01:00 pm
Got to leave this internet connection for a few days - look fwd to reading your reply when back.

Steve - Username and I have already "disambiguated" (his verb, sorry! ) the direction of the orders of magnitude in the original statement; you may save time by looking up that exchange.
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username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 01:14 pm
Perfectly fine word--lookit up in your dictionary. I've already made the point several times, e.g i n the 1:39 post. Melting doesn't do it by itself. It's a trigger (that's three times now). Care to address that? I have to go to work too, we'll see what the discussion mutates into in eight hours or so.
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old europe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 01:18 pm
maporsche wrote:
Could you please explain to me how your post regarding earthquake magnitudes and increasing atmospheric pressure has anything to do with earthquakes in Alaska caused (or made possible) by receding glaciers.


High Seas wrote:
Thanks for the clarification, Maporsche. Changes in atmospheric pressure have long been known to induce ground motions - recall, please, that these air columns above us do weigh a lot. Summary of related article at:

Quote:
The hypothesis has been advanced that major portions of the annual pole motion are caused by the seasonal transport of air masses. These pole motions in turn can act as trigger forces on earthquakes.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/j853283v73808670/



Apparently, you haven't bothered to read what has been posted. The article about the receding glaciers was not talking about

- motions resulting from increasing atmospheric pressure
- motions resulting from melting snows
- motions resulting from rainfall
- motions resulting from other sources of pressure on the top earth layers

No. It wasn't. No no.

So all your babbling about order of magnitude has really no relevance at all, as you're merely arguing against a point that nobody has made.

Maybe reading what has been posted before starting to make snotty comments would save you the embarrassment in the future.



Oh, and for your convenience, here's the link to what actually has been posted. Enjoy the read!
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username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 01:20 pm
old europe said quite eloquently what I had been trying to say, but which high seas did not seem to hear.
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old europe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 01:23 pm
Well, she couldn't be bothered to read what has been posted, and she obviously ignored it when people tried to clarify that she had made wrong assumptions - most likely without reading the article.

Didn't stop her from continuing to "correct" everybody for something that hadn't been said...

<shrugs>

I guess if you try so hard to miss the point, you actually deserve some credit as well.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Jul, 2007 04:57 pm
2007 global temperature the 2nd-warmest ever recorded
Updated 3h 41m ago


By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
The Earth's temperature for the first six months of the year was the second-warmest ever recorded, government scientists reported today.
The average temperature of the planet was 1.13 degrees above average, which trails only 1998 for the warmest January-June period on record. January-June 1998 was 1.15 degrees above average.
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