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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Jun, 2007 07:31 pm
Here is another great point in the DOE study that I referenced above.

Quote:
It should be noted that with the emergence of PHEV, the emission sources will shift from millions of individual vehicles to a few hundred central generation facilities. The economics for emission reduction and carbon sequestration technologies may look much more attractive when installed at central power plants rather than in motor vehicles, especially when the costs are spread over longer operating periods and billions of additional kilowatt hours.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 16 Jun, 2007 08:25 pm
maporsche wrote:
I'm sorry, I should have known from reading some of your previous posts that you don't like to do your own research. I should have realized that you already have fully formed opinions on certain matters and refuse to research anything that may refute those previously held opinions. Well, I'm doing you a favor and providing the government sources you asked for.

Here is the study that was completed by the Department of Energy (notice the .gov in the URL, specifying a government entity), specifically the by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. It was released on or near December 11th 2006. It's a 39 page document so I doubt you'll take any time to read it. Let me extract some points for you.

http://www.pnl.gov/energy/eed/etd/pdfs/phev_feasibility_analysis_combined.pdf


I did read the report and I have long been generally familiar with its contents. The report basically calculates the unused potential of the total U.S. productive capacity in terms of equivalent numbers of electrically powered light vehicles, based on certain assumptions about their distribution by type (truck, SUV etc.) and others regarding the power requirements and efficiencies of the imaginary vehicles that would be so supplied. It turns out that under these assumptions the total number of vehicles so powered is large. The study goes on to estimate the oil import and atmospheric emission potential of this transfer based on additional assumptions about the efficacy of new emission controls at fossil fueled power generationg plants.

What is missing from the report is any consideration of the practical value of the power demand "valleys" and the relationship of the reliability of the generation/distribution system to the average load imposed on it. To illustrate - if their proposal were applied to its fullest potential (i.e. the very numbers they calculated) then the first hiccup at a power station, major transmission line, or a regional network station, or even at some obscure local transformer station would result in a major regional or nationwide system cascading failure. We have already seen examples of such cascading failures, even under less than peak demand situations.

A significant reserve of excess capacity is needed to cover issues ranging from plant maintenance requirements to unscheduled outages of plants or transmission facilities. Additional online, operating reserve is required for redundancy & short-term reliability including reserve capacity for matters such as rerouting power flows, and the huge power surges that can result from local system failures or changes in configuration of the network.

The truth is we don't have suffucient redundancy in the existing generating and transmission capacity in certain regions of the country. The report you so value already noted that our current system operates at 100% of capacity about 5% of the time -- i.e. about 70 minutes every day. From a systems perspective this is already a dangerous source of unreliability.

It is true that in an ideal world the "valleys" in the seasonal and diurnal demand curves could power a large number of vehicles (if they existed; and if the needed transmission and charging facilities were built). In this same ideal world the mice found a way to put a bell around the cat's neck and lived without fear. Unfortunately this isn't the world we live in.

The report you cited was a very good example of the insubstantial fluff you get posing as science on a "hot" topic like AGW. I know the Pacific NW Lab well, and know that they produce a lot of this stuff (it is run bt Battele Inc under contract to the government). It is interesting to note that most U.S. utilities are today running various programs to bribe their customers into using less power, not more. Have you ever wondered why they do this? Do businesses usually ask their customers to buy less of their product? The truth is they are capacity limited and, given the environmental issues they face and the various NIMBYs they must deal with they know they can raise their profits by limiting demand and avoiding the regulatory and intervener hassle - as well as the capital requirements - of new plant construction.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jun, 2007 08:22 am
Today in our state (Northrhine-Westphalia) the Evangelical Churches, Greenpeace, environmental organisations and consumer protection agencies founded a climate protection alliance.

20 different organisation are participating. (Similar exists on federal level already, with 60 different organisations and churches [here's the Catholic Church a partner as well].)
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jun, 2007 07:56 pm
Well they were wrong about the concepts of Aristotle and Ptolemy concerning the structure of the solar system too.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jun, 2007 11:03 pm
Exactly who of those? :wink:
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Jun, 2007 08:24 am
georgeob1 wrote:


...................................................

Incredible as it may seem to those rightly concerned about shielding and the consequences of a crash, the USAF did indeed attempt to build a nuclear powered aircraft, back in the late 1950s. The prototype plant still exists at the DoE Idaho National Laboratory near Arco - a fenced off mausoleum. The reactor was of a very primitive design, due in part to weight considerations and it provided for manual operation of the control rods. An operator error (fatal to the operator in question) yielded a "prompt criticality" accident that in effect turned the facility momentarily into a high energy microwave oven. The project was quickly abandoned.

Interestingly on a ship the combined weight (and volume) of an oil-fired steam plant and its fuel, is a good deal greater than that of a reactor plant and its shielding. Even a thirty year old Nimitz class carrier has more than twice the aviation fuel and ammunition storage capacity of a conventionally-powered carrier of the same size and displacement. Modern Naval reactors use highly enriched fuel; are loaded with boron and other neutron-absorbing "poisions" to limit reactivity early in plant life; have very high power densities; and don't need refuelling for the life of the ship.


Tks, George - these are 2 distinct things I never knew until your post on the previous page!

Btw, I knew there had been an accident with the nuclear-powered airplane prototype, and that it killed the pilot, but I hope you'll take a sec to walk me through the steps involved: presumably testing in a wind tunnel, he pulled out the rods? How could that produce radiation in the microwave range, or did you mean that as a figure of speech?
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Jun, 2007 04:26 pm
High Seas wrote:

Btw, I knew there had been an accident with the nuclear-powered airplane prototype, and that it killed the pilot, but I hope you'll take a sec to walk me through the steps involved: presumably testing in a wind tunnel, he pulled out the rods? How could that produce radiation in the microwave range, or did you mean that as a figure of speech?


The facility in Idaho where the accident occurred was only a prototype of the powerplant - no airframe or wind tunnel. They were conducting tests to verify the basic physics and operating parameters of the prototype plant.

You are correct, I was employing a figure of speech. Most people think of a criticality incident as a nuclear explosion, instead of the generally self-limiting burst of radiation that it truly is - hence my metaphorical phrase.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jun, 2007 11:46 am
Tks very much, George, very instructive.

Anybody here has an opinion on the Energy Bill discussed yesterday? Am particularly interested in the latest coal-to-liquids technology - with sequestration of CO2 - for both US and China.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jun, 2007 11:52 am
It isn't just the sequestration of the CO2 which is the issue, but the fact that coal itself has a lot more chemicals in it which aren't great for the environment then we think - the significantly radioactive material released by coal burning is in the millions of tons annually...

I'm interested in the 'algal cleansing' technology that has been proposed for coal-burning plants; seems a good solution

Cycloptichorn
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jun, 2007 01:34 pm
Coal isn't all bad. The sulfur dioxide is a very effective solar reflector -- an 'anti greenhouse gas'. Cool
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jun, 2007 02:57 pm
Well you can all relax now

China is the world's worst polluter
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username
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jun, 2007 03:05 pm
Depends. Per capita we have them beat by miles.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 03:34 am
username wrote:
Depends. Per capita we have them beat by miles.
True. Resume guilt complex immediately.
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HokieBird
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 08:03 am
Prepare for Global COOLING

Climate stability has never been a feature of planet Earth. The only constant about climate is change; it changes continually and, at times, quite rapidly. Many times in the past, temperatures were far higher than today, and occasionally, temperatures were colder. As recently as 6,000 years ago, it was about 3C warmer than now. Ten thousand years ago, while the world was coming out of the thou-sand-year-long "Younger Dryas" cold episode, temperatures rose as much as 6C in a decade -- 100 times faster than the past century's 0.6C warming that has so upset environmentalists.

It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada. As a country at the northern limit to agriculture in the world, it would take very little cooling to destroy much of our food crops, while a warming would only require that we adopt farming techniques practiced to the south of us.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 12:32 pm
hokiebird wrote ;

Quote:
It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada. As a country at the northern limit to agriculture in the world, it would take very little cooling to destroy much of our food crops,


if it gets any colder here in canada , we'll simply be eating more seal and whale blubber ... but we won't be sharing any ; it's all ours !
and we'll outlive all of you !
hbg

Quote:
"The big killer" (cardiovascular disease) is the most frequent cause of death in Europe and the USA. In the last fifty years great changes in diet have led to rapid acceleration of the disease. In Europe and the USA many people die at ages as early as 40-50 of thrombosis. In the USA half a million people a year contact thrombosis and die of it. A further million are permanently disabled by thrombosis. A billion dollars a year are spent on medicine for atherosclerosis and thrombosis.

Atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries) begins in childhood. Post-mortems on American soldiers who died in Korean War showed that there were already clear indications of atherosclerosis in twenty-year-olds.

In Greenland atherosclerosis is a more or less unknown disease. For example, in the 1970s there was not a single death due to cardiovascular disease in the hunting district of Uummannaq with about 3,000 inhabitants. In recent years some Greenlanders have moved to Denmark. Following the same pattern as elsewhere in the world, these immigrants have contracted the same cardiovascular diseases as the Danes. So the very low incidence of cardiovascular disease in Greenland cannot be explained by hereditary immunity. In other words, something in the environment has given the Inuit protection against "the big killer". So it is a natural step to investigate the Greenland diet.

As early as 1908 the Danish doctors Krogh & Krogh studied the Greenlandic diet. They demonstrated that Greenlanders were the most meat-eating population known at that time. The Danish doctors Bang and Dyerberg confirmed this in the studies they made between 1970 and 1979. They found that certain poly- unsaturated fatty acids, the so-called OMEGA-3 fatty acids, are richly represented in the diet, which consists mainly of seal and small whales. These polyunsaturated OMEGA-3 fatty acids may explain the low incidence of cardiovascular diseases. It is true that the food in the diet of the western world also includes polyunsaturated fatty acids, especially since vegetable margarine has replaced butter on most people's lunch tables; but these belong to another family - the OMEGA-6 acids.

Both OMEGA-3 and OMEGA-6 are essential substances which the organism needs to get from its diet. OMEGA-3 is particularly well-represented in sea-food, OMEGA-3 in food from land.

Both these fats are structural elements in every single cell in the organism, and can to some extent replace each other. But it is very important whether it is one type or the other that forms part of the blood platelets. The more OMEGA-6, the stronger the tendency for the blood platelets to clot. This lays the basis for thrombosis, and to some extent for atherosclerosis. In the diet of the western world the ratio of OMEGA-6 to OMEGA-3 is 50:1 (that is 50 kilos of meat for every kilo of fish). In the Inuit diet the ratio is 1:1.

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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 12:33 pm
http://i9.tinypic.com/4xuw7jc.jpg
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 12:40 pm
we canadians are not worried about "global cooling" and "carbon fuel" - we've got our seal and whale blubber and our dogteams !
LET THE BIG FREEZE START - we're prepared !
hbg

http://www.sleddogcentral.com/images/Canadian_Eskimo_Dog_Team2.jpg
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 12:54 pm
I know that dog. 4th from right.

He answers to the name Ogo

Short for Ogopogo

Its when he doesnt answer you have to be careful, likely to bite your nether regions.
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Avatar ADV
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 12:58 pm
Say what you will, but it's a good point - a few degrees warmer is an inconvenience, a few degrees cooler means glaciers over Manhattan. ;p
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 01:02 pm
Avatar ADV wrote:
Say what you will, but it's a good point - a few degrees warmer is an inconvenience, a few degrees cooler means glaciers over Manhattan. ;p
you have no idea
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