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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 01:05 pm
Avatar ADV wrote:
Say what you will, but it's a good point - a few degrees warmer is an inconvenience, a few degrees cooler means glaciers over Manhattan. ;p


'till an ice shelf slides off

Jeez

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
HokieBird
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 01:06 pm
Avatar ADV wrote:
Say what you will, but it's a good point - a few degrees warmer is an inconvenience, a few degrees cooler means glaciers over Manhattan. ;p


I think his most relevant claim is that climate study is fantastically complex and still in it's infancy. That's not near as fun as doomsaying though.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 01:09 pm
HokieBird wrote:
Avatar ADV wrote:
Say what you will, but it's a good point - a few degrees warmer is an inconvenience, a few degrees cooler means glaciers over Manhattan. ;p


I think his most relevant claim is that climate study is fantastically complex and still in it's infancy. That's not near as fun as doomsaying though.
who is doomsaying? I'm pointing out that you have no idea what you are talking about. You just make it up as you go along.
0 Replies
 
HokieBird
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 01:13 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
HokieBird wrote:
Avatar ADV wrote:
Say what you will, but it's a good point - a few degrees warmer is an inconvenience, a few degrees cooler means glaciers over Manhattan. ;p


I think his most relevant claim is that climate study is fantastically complex and still in it's infancy. That's not near as fun as doomsaying though.
who is doomsaying? I'm pointing out that you have no idea what you are talking about. You just make it up as you go along.


Making up what, exactly? You think we know all we need to know about climate change? No need for more study?
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 01:42 pm
HokieBird wrote:
Steve 41oo wrote:
HokieBird wrote:
Avatar ADV wrote:
Say what you will, but it's a good point - a few degrees warmer is an inconvenience, a few degrees cooler means glaciers over Manhattan. ;p


I think his most relevant claim is that climate study is fantastically complex and still in it's infancy. That's not near as fun as doomsaying though.
who is doomsaying? I'm pointing out that you have no idea what you are talking about. You just make it up as you go along.


Making up what, exactly? You think we know all we need to know about climate change? No need for more study?
yes of course there is need for more study. But that does not mean, in the case of cosmology, that we keep checking Copernicus was right. Some things are established. And as far as I can understand it, anthropogenic global warming is one.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 04:14 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:

yes of course there is need for more study. But that does not mean, in the case of cosmology, that we keep checking Copernicus was right. Some things are established. And as far as I can understand it, anthropogenic global warming is one.


If you are trying to imply that currently fashonable ideas about AGW have all the scientific certainty of Copernicus' solar-centric planetary system, then you are certainly wrong.
0 Replies
 
Avatar ADV
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jun, 2007 10:39 pm
Or more like, have you been reading the thread? I'm not the only one to have detailed the shortcomings of the current state of climate prediction science.

Look, if you want to claim something's fully understood, you need to be able to use your understanding to make predictions. If you think you have a model of planetary motion, you can sit down and do the math and TELL where the planets are going to be, say, next Thursday. And indeed this was done. (In fact, it was inconsistencies in the measurements of the position of Mercury that first opened up the field of relativity.)

We can't do that with climate. Anyone forgotten the days after Katrina, when we had to listen to a lot of predictions that, well, of course global warming would produce more violent storms and that we could expect every hurricane season to have lots of hurricanes. Didn't pan out the next year, and looking good so far this year. ;p Yes, yes, of course climate prediction is incredibly difficult and subject to a lot of uncertainties. We understand that.

But then don't turn around and tell us that your prediction for climate change is incontrovertible and verified. It's not. It's a little better than a wild-ass guess, but only a little. The model is -not like reality-. There are many things which are definitely big, even overriding factors in climate change, but that are simply -not- modeled in current climate change models. Okay, yes, that's because they are very hard to model and we don't understand things like solar variability or water vapor formation, and we have very little historical data on those topics. But that doesn't mean they aren't important! And even if the model is the best we can possibly do, made only by the most well-meaning scientists, that doesn't mean that it's actually any good.

If you don't understand these shortcomings in the scientific models, read up on 'em. It's not terribly difficult.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 04:44 am
I'm not quite as stupid as you seem to think. The earth's climate has changed roughly in line with AGW model predictions. I say roughly because its not an exact science. And anyone who thinks the link between warming and more severe storms is disproved because there wasnt a severe storm last year really doesnt understand the basis on which those predictions were made.

Quote:
But then don't turn around and tell us that your prediction for climate change is incontrovertible and verified. It's not. It's a little better than a wild-ass guess, but only a little. The model is -not like reality-. There are many things which are definitely big, even overriding factors in climate change, but that are simply -not- modeled in current climate change models. Okay, yes, that's because they are very hard to model and we don't understand things like solar variability or water vapor formation, and we have very little historical data on those topics. But that doesn't mean they aren't important! And even if the model is the best we can possibly do, made only by the most well-meaning scientists, that doesn't mean that it's actually any good.


Are you seriously suggesting that the climate change scientists at the recent IPCC conference forgot about water vapour? Or didnt factor it in because it was too difficult? Or didnt take into consideration solar variation?

Its utterly preposterous to suggest that it all amounts to little more than a wild ass guess or whatever phrase you used. Of course its not as clear cut as Newtonian mechanics, but then Newton wasn't dead right was he?

The central proposition which is now accepted by all but a few mavericks and contrarians is that the Earth is undergoing a period of rapid and unprecedented warming, the main cause of which is human activity related to fossil fuel burning. We are no longer living in the holocene but the anthropocene.

[But if you ask what we should do about it...thats far more difficult]
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 07:08 am
Steve 41oo wrote:

The central proposition which is now accepted by all but a few mavericks and contrarians is that the Earth is undergoing a period of rapid and unprecedented warming, the main cause of which is human activity related to fossil fuel burning. We are no longer living in the holocene but the anthropocene.

[But if you ask what we should do about it...thats far more difficult]


The central ideas in the quoted statement are mostly false

The observed warming is no more rapid than what began in the 18th century as the earth recovered from what was called a "little ice age" (and which coincided with a period of reduced solar activity). The rate of temperature change is hardlly unprecedented or unusually rapid - such changes have occurred many times previously. The observed warming trend is not nearly so simply connected to or explained by the anthromorphic factors as you imply. Why did temperatures fall slightly in the late 1940s thru mid 1970s - a period of rapid expansion in the very anthromorphic factors you say define the current age?

We generally agree on the facts and observations before us, but the certainty you imply about the theory and, more importantly, the predictions you make based on it, is not sufficient to require the costly remedies you advocate.

Copernicus and Gallileo were also maverics and contrarians in their age.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 02:46 pm
Quote:
The rate of temperature change is hardlly unprecedented or unusually rapid
I really think you are wrong here.

Quote:
the predictions you make based on it, is not sufficient to require the costly remedies you advocate.


well actually I havent made any predictions. I'm just alarmed by what people who know more than me about this topic are predicting.

Second I havent advocated any particular remedy, because I dont know what to do about it. Except that nuclear (fission) power has to be part of the mix.

Third what does anthromorphic mean? Wink
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 03:08 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
The observed warming is no more rapid than what began in the 18th century as the earth recovered from what was called a "little ice age" (and which coincided with a period of reduced solar activity). The rate of temperature change is hardlly unprecedented or unusually rapid - such changes have occurred many times previously. The observed warming trend is not nearly so simply connected to or explained by the anthromorphic factors as you imply. Why did temperatures fall slightly in the late 1940s thru mid 1970s - a period of rapid expansion in the very anthromorphic factors you say define the current age?


And one theory of what caused the "little ice age" was a rapid warming period directly preceding it which added large quantities of fresh water from melting glaciers to the oceans (similar to what we are seeing now). Enough fresh water was added from the glaciers that the salinity of the oceans changed, preventing the thermal layers from following their normal paths. The Gulf Stream is one part of a vast thermal current which affects the atmosphere of coastal areas. It is thought that Greenland was once lush pasture that became barren only after the little ice age and that the climate there became so much colder because the waters were no longer warmed by the thermal currents. The Inuits survived because of their dependency on cold-water fish. The Vikings perished because of their dependency on agriculture and warm-water cod.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 03:19 pm
A couple of days ago, the New Scientist published a Climate change: A guide for the perplexed.

There, it says about the Little Ice Age:

Quote:
The term "Little Ice Age" is somewhat questionable, because there was no single, well-defined period of prolonged cold around the entire planet. After 1600, there are records of average winter temperatures in Europe and North America that were as much as 2°C lower than present (although the third coldest winter in England since 1659 was in 1963).

Comparisons of temperature indicators such as tree-ring records from around the northern hemisphere suggest there were several widespread cold intervals between 1580 and 1850.

Yet while there is some evidence of cold intervals in parts of the southern hemisphere during this time, they do not appear to coincide with those in the northern hemisphere. Such findings suggest the Little Ice Age may have been more of a regional phenomenon than a global one.
0 Replies
 
username
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 03:21 pm
Greenland was never "lush pastures"..It wasn't when the Vikings were there. It was barely habitable then by a pastoral economy, by people who were forced out of Iceland by population pressure and political problems. Paleobotanical, archaeological, and ehtnohistorical evidence all pretty much concur. The only areas the Vikings lived in were the areas that Europeans settled from about 1750 on--the southwest coast, which is warmed to a degree by the North Atlantic Drift, the northern extension of the Gulf Stream, which curls around the southern tip of Greenland. The rest of Greenland was then and was until 20th century technology, pretty much uninhabitable except by Inuit with a different skill set than the Vikings. The growing season was too short for any edible grains to grow--they had to get grain from Norway to brew beer, which being Vikings really REALLY ticked them off. Their economy was pastoral, relying on native grasses and imported grasses with very short growing seasons. It wasn't "lush", it was always very marginal.

Basically what it boils down to is that the anecdotal evidence for a "Medieval Warm Period" which the climate change denialists like to cite, which in large measure deals with the Greenland Vikings, is only cherry picking of the available data. When you actually check the sources and look at ALL the data, it doesn't show what they claim it shows. It wasn't any warmer than the turn of the 20th century, and quite a bit cooler than the last few years of the 20th century.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 03:25 pm
thanks walter and for anyone who didnt get it...

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 03:42 pm
That article certainly doesn't have all of the answers, but it's a publication that both climate change skeptics and as well as believers might find interesting.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 22 Jun, 2007 03:42 pm
Interesting discussion on snopes pertaining to the history of Greenland's climate Here.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jun, 2007 01:14 pm
Quote:
But perhaps the biggest rift is over nuclear power. Here, disagreements reach the most rarefied levels. James Lovelock, a chemist who invented the Gaia hypothesis (the earth is a balance of interdependent mechanisms) and is godfather to a generation of greens, provoked much anger and soul-searching in 2004 when he declared that nuclear power offered the only credible solution to climate change. Opposition to atomic energy, said Mr Lovelock, was based on "irrational fear fed by Hollywood-style fiction, the Green lobbies and the media". Equally influential organisations such as Friends of the Earth, the Sierra Club and Greenpeace preach the traditional anti-atomic doctrine.

http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/greenview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9390797
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jun, 2007 02:57 pm
JPB wrote:

And one theory of what caused the "little ice age" was a rapid warming period directly preceding it which added large quantities of fresh water from melting glaciers to the oceans (similar to what we are seeing now). Enough fresh water was added from the glaciers that the salinity of the oceans changed, preventing the thermal layers from following their normal paths. The Gulf Stream is one part of a vast thermal current which affects the atmosphere of coastal areas. It is thought that Greenland was once lush pasture that became barren only after the little ice age and that the climate there became so much colder because the waters were no longer warmed by the thermal currents. The Inuits survived because of their dependency on cold-water fish. The Vikings perished because of their dependency on agriculture and warm-water cod.


That may be "one theory" but I doubt that anyone with a scientific background takes it seriously.

In the first place there is no data to support the glacier melting hypothesis in the "rapid warming period directly preceding it". No records of past ocean currents exist, and even the models we use today to "predict" changes in them don't work because of the non-linearity and complexity of the factors involved -- sensitive dependence and chaos. (We can't even predict the next appearance of the El Ninho current in the southern Pacific, though we know empirically that its cycle varies from 8 to 20 years in length.)

The fact is that the so called "little Ice age correlates very well with an unusual minimum in the observed activity of solar flares (the Maunder Minimum). In addition the complex relationship of the periodic variations in the inclination of the earth's axis to the ecliptic plane with those of the major & minor axes of the earth's orbit also yielded less exposure to solar radiation during that period. Both factors are supported by real data and are likely to have been sufficient to have caused the cooling --- and very likely the warm period that preceeded it.

No one has suggested that Greenland was "covered with lush pastures". However known parts of it certainly were and are even pastureland today. The old Norse settlement at Scoresbysund on Greenland's East coast (which is still inhabited today) has yielded substantial evidence of the animal husbandry of the early Norse settlers and even some of the primitive agriculture they practiced. The subsequent cooling reduced the pastureland available to them; eliminated the agriculture and probably led to the abandonment of the settlement.

The key point which you apparently missed is that the "period of rapid warming directly preceding it", the Little Ice Age itself, and the subsequent warming all occurred without any anthromorphic input. Given that the bland assumption, so credulously accepted by the AGW cultists, that manmade factors MUST certainly be behind the contemporary observed warming - and that all other known historical factors MUST be absent - is palpably laughable.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jun, 2007 03:04 pm
Quote:

The key point which you apparently missed is that the "period of rapid warming directly preceding it", the Little Ice Age itself, and the subsequent warming all occurred without any anthromorphic input. Given that the bland assumption, so credulously accepted by the AGW cultists, that manmade factors MUST certainly be behind the contemporary observed warming - and that all other known historical factors MUST be absent - is palpably laughable.


Please don't generalize the most extreme version of a theory to all the proponents of the theory as a whole. You know that isn't intellectually honest.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jun, 2007 03:20 pm
To what theory do you refer? The one to which I cited as accepted by the cultists, or some other more reasonable one?

My response was indeed a fitting observation concerning those who argue that the contemporarily observed warming must be the exclusive result of manmade factors; that it will continue; and that we should surrender our freedoms and dedicate 10-20% of the world's GDP to combatting it.
0 Replies
 
 

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