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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 10:02 am
okie wrote:
Are you starting to see the light, blatham?

I love the picture of mudcracks on your link. I remember those from National Geographics magazines back in the 50's, usually of places in Africa, except then it was for a different reason, called a "drought." If you have ever collected fossils, you can find fossil mudcracks a few million years old in fact.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 10:25 am
A summary:

Quote:
CLIMATE CHANGE OVER A GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL CYCLE DURING THE MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE: A LONG TERM RECORD FROM THE VALLES CALDERA, NEW MEXICO

FAWCETT, Peter J.1, GOFF, Fraser1, HEIKOOP, Jeff2, ALLEN, Craig D.3, DONOHOO-HURLEY, Linda1, GEISSMAN, John W.1, JOHNSON, Catrina1, WOLDEGABRIEL, Giday2, and FESSENDEN-RAHN, Julianna2, (1) Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, [email protected], (2) Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, (3) Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station, USGS, Los Alamos, NM 87544
The Valles Caldera in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico contains a thick sequence of lacustrine sediments and volcaniclastic sediments that date from the inception of the caldera (c.a. 1.25 Myr). Lakes formed in the caldera immediately after its formation and existed for some period of time before the caldera wall was breached. A major lake formed during the middle Pleistocene in the Valle Grande when a post-caldera eruption (c.a. 520 kyr) filled the drainage to San Diego Canyon. The deposits of this ancient lake were cored in May 2004 (GLAD 5 drilling project) and a total depth of 81 m of lacustrine mud and silts and gravels was recovered. Based on geomorphic relationships and typical sedimentation rates in caldera lakes, the record obtained from the Valles Caldera should span ~80,000 years. As such, it offers a unique opportunity to gain insight into the climatic response to a middle Pleistocene glacial cycle in southwestern North America.

Initial analyses show considerable down-core variability in sedimentary facies, magnetic susceptibility, and gamma-ray density. Pumice sands and gravels at the base of the core grade up into variably laminated and bioturbated diatom-rich silty muds. Turbidites in the lower section interrupt laminated mud sequences and in some sections, thick diatomites occur and are indicative of surface eutrophication in the lake. The mm-scale laminations found in most of the lacustrine mud present possibly represent varves. Higher in the core, thin sand lenses indicate episodes of enhanced runoff into the lake, and occasional dropstones are observed. In the middle sequence, a brecciated, diatom poor facies correlates with high magnetic susceptibility. The rapid vertical facies changes found within this core and intervals with well-developed mudcracks indicate multiple water level changes over the lake history that spans a glacial-interglacial cycle during the middle Pleistocene.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 11:52 am
okie wrote:
maporsche wrote:
I'm all for nuclear technology. Build as many of those plants as we can afford.

Thank the tree huggers for killing the expansion of nuclear in the U.S. more than 20 years ago.


Oh you mean about the same time that 3 mile island had a leak in 1979. Or Chernobyl in 1986?

I probably would have been against building any more plants then as well as accidents and incident reports were much higher than they've been in the last 10-15 years.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 11:58 am
Sigh. If he is so inclined, I'll let our resident nuclear expert, GeorgeOb1, AGAIN explain the excellent safety record of nuclear plants as compared to almost all other means of producing energy in large quantities.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 12:09 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
Sigh. If he is so inclined, I'll let our resident nuclear expert, GeorgeOb1, AGAIN explain the excellent safety record of nuclear plants as compared to almost all other means of producing energy in large quantities.


I agree that they are much better now than 20 years ago which is what okie was referring too.

No explination needed. But I can understand the worry that people may have felt 20 years ago right around the time of 3 mile and Chernobyl.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 12:14 pm
maporsche wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
Sigh. If he is so inclined, I'll let our resident nuclear expert, GeorgeOb1, AGAIN explain the excellent safety record of nuclear plants as compared to almost all other means of producing energy in large quantities.


I agree that they are much better now than 20 years ago which is what okie was referring too.

No explination needed. But I can understand the worry that people may have felt 20 years ago right around the time of 3 mile and Chernobyl.


LOL, okay. I was just explaining to a young person here the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning (that was prompted in a separate thread today) and I misinterpreted your post as faulty inductive reasoning. Smile My apologies for the error.

My son is a mechanical/petroleum engineer at a large refinery. His work is soooo dangerous, I would be thrilled if he found a steady, safe job at any nuclear facility. I would worry a lot less.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 12:54 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
My son is a mechanical/petroleum engineer at a large refinery. His work is soooo dangerous, I would be thrilled if he found a steady, safe job at any nuclear facility. I would worry a lot less.


I know such argumentation: my mother says similar since almost 87 years now at any situation I've been in ...
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 12:57 pm
maporsche wrote:
okie wrote:
maporsche wrote:
I'm all for nuclear technology. Build as many of those plants as we can afford.

Thank the tree huggers for killing the expansion of nuclear in the U.S. more than 20 years ago.


Oh you mean about the same time that 3 mile island had a leak in 1979. Or Chernobyl in 1986?

I probably would have been against building any more plants then as well as accidents and incident reports were much higher than they've been in the last 10-15 years.


Except environmentalists were opposing nuclear before those incidents, and 3 mile island was greatly exaggerated. Chernobyl technology was already antiquated when it happened. The press, as usual, did a very, very bad job of objectively reporting the nuclear industry and those incidents. I hate to say it, but there are plenty of informed people that can now say "I told you so." Often, policy is made on an emotional basis, not a factual basis, and that is what happened with nuclear in the U.S. Unfortunately, policy is still being made on emotional basis and media reporting is still just as bad as ever, if not worse.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 01:06 pm
Interestingly the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) last week announced a request for professional consulting services in processing license applications for 19 new 1300 MWe nuclear power plants, all involving new advanced BWR & PWR reactor designs mostly at existing sites, in the United States. It is a fairly long process, but they have, at last, begun.

Several years ago Sweden and Germany rather loudly announced their intent to shut down their respective nuclear establishments. To date very little progress has been made in either country toward actually achieving these goals. I wonder where they stand now.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 01:30 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Several years ago Sweden and Germany rather loudly announced their intent to shut down their respective nuclear establishments. To date very little progress has been made in either country toward actually achieving these goals. I wonder where they stand now.


Well, that's the dilemna that you Americans read only some internationl headlines -if at all- and then leave it, keeping just that information.

Quote:
Christian Democrats signal Swedish shift to nuclear power

Published: 2nd April

The Christian Democratic party in Sweden has recently announced that it is changing its position on nuclear power. According to a report published by the party, the goal is no longer to "phase out Swedish nuclear energy as renewable sources replace it".

Instead, the Christian Democrats explain that they "do not wish to rule out that new nuclear reactors will be built in Sweden after 2010".

Currently, the nuclear reactors located at Ringhals , Forsmark and Oskarshamn produce around 50 percent of the electricity in Sweden, a substantial figure when viewed in an international perspective.

The ten reactors that are in service began operating between 1972 and 1985 and have been continuously upgraded to increase their yield.

However, the reactors were not built to last and some 15-20 years into the future the need will arise to replace them.

Although Sweden is one of the countries in the world that relies most on nuclear power, there has been wide political resentment against this energy source during the past few decades.

The big shift in the Swedish debate came with the accident in Harrisburg in 1979 and the nuclear-referendum in 1980. Swedish citizens were then given the option to vote for three different strategies for nuclear power, all aiming to ultimately abolish this source of energy.

The result of this vote might very well have been as hotly debated as the referendum itself, but the Parliament ultimately set the year 2010 as the final date when the last reactor would be taken out of action.

After substantial political pressure from Denmark, the two reactors in Barsebäck were closed down on the November 30th 1999 and the May 31st 2005.

But during the last few years, technological improvements in nuclear technology allied with the debate surrounding climate change have stimulated renewed interest in nuclear power. The previous aim to abolish nuclear energy may very well never occur.

Recently even the Centre Party has begun changing its stance on nuclear power. This is astonishing given that a centre-right government was dissolved in 1978 when the Centre Party, being strongly anti nuclear power, could not come to terms with its Liberal and Moderate coalition partners.

That both the Christian Democrats and the Centre party have shifted towards preserving and perhaps even expanding Swedish nuclear power represents an important shift in energy policies. This shift may mean that decision makers gain a more nuanced and less ideological view of nuclear power.

Nuclear power is on the rise internationally. Many reactors are being built in countries such as China and India and the third generation of nuclear reactors are on the rise in Japan, South Korea and European nations such as Finland and France.

At the same time, a massive expansion of nuclear power is expected in the USA beginning with the signing of new government permits in 2010.

In years to come, we might very well see this trend spreading to Sweden, something that was unthinkable only a few years ago.

source: The Local -Swedish news in English

The governing German coalition is clinging to its non-nuclear policy - but the nuclear lobby and most of the conservatives will bring a change .... sooner or later (most probably sooner, I suppose).

But momentarily we're still proceding in the gradual shut down of the country's nineteen nuclear power plants - as planned.
(Which, btw, made a world leader in the use of renewable energy, particularly in photovoltaic and wind turbine installations.)
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 01:47 pm
Walter - I sometimes go days at a time without thinking much about Sweden.

The headlines and hype surrounding the renunciation of nuclear power by Sweden were far bigger than the silence that accompanyed their prolongued inaction on the matter and subsequently their recent reversal of their position.

Apparently (even despite your rebuke) my understanding of the situation in Germany is correct. The declared intent to abandon nuclear power remains in place, but nothing has been done - or likely will be done - to implement it.

Meanwhile, as you say Germany has become a leader in wind and solar power implementation -- progressing all the way from the infinitesimal to the trivial.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 01:55 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Apparently (even despite your rebuke) my understanding of the situation in Germany is correct. The declared intent to abandon nuclear power remains in place, but nothing has been done - or likely will be done - to implement it.

Meanwhile, as you say Germany has become a leader in wind and solar power implementation -- progressing all the way from the infinitesimal to the trivial.


We closed four or five plants until now - the debate about perhaps perhaps running some longer was stopped by the chancellor: she stands to what she had said and decided. She said.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 02:10 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Walter - I sometimes go days at a time without thinking much about Sweden.

The headlines and hype surrounding the renunciation of nuclear power by Sweden were far bigger than the silence that accompanyed their prolongued inaction on the matter and subsequently their recent reversal of their position.


Actually, there weren't much headlines (in the US-press) about the "the most serious nuclear incident in the world since the Chernobyl disaster and that it was pure luck that prevented a meltdown" (according to the former construction chief at Vattenfall).

That happened in June 2006 at Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant.
Two more incidents happened in Sweden afterwards.

This year, in January an internal report made by a few employees at Forsmark who were concerned over a "degrading safety culture" was leaked to media who ran an extensive story on it.
That lead to inspections in all nuclear power plants - results aren't published yet.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 03:21 pm
Walter, I read a brief descriptio of the Forsmark incident in July 2006 on a couple of web sites.

Evidently there was an electrical power failure and the automatic reactor control system successfully shut the plant down (dropped the control rods to get the reactor sub critical). The event was complicated by the failure of two of four emergency deisel generators to auto start, as they were designed to do. However, even with this there was sufficient power to continue pumped coolant flow to the shutdown plant. Forsmark is a Boiling Water Reactor, so all that was required was to maintain the designed coolant level in the reactor core -- easily accomplished with just one deisel generator. In addition there were other available sources of electrical power for the coolant pumps.

Overall this wasn't much of an accident. Evidently there was no damage to the reactor core and no release of radioactivity. While it may well have been "the worst reactor accident since Chernobyl" , that is rather more testimony to the generally high level of operational safety in the world's nuclear plants, than to any even remote similarity to what happened at Chernobyl.

I don't know enough of the details of the design of the Forsmark plant to be sure, but for most US commercial plants (and for all Navy plants) natural convection flow in a shutdown plant is designed to be sufficient to remove decay heat and prevent core damage -- no pumping power of any kind is really required, though it is always available.

Evidently the Swedes are excitable people.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 03:27 pm
Evidently you only read what was first published by Vattensal.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 04:15 pm
I don't know to what sources you are referring. What, in your view, have I missed?

I believe my analysis and assumptions above were clear and specific enough. I do have quite a lot of responsible experience in overseeing the operations of nuclear power plants.

If the Forsmark plant couldn't be cooled (after a successful SCRAM) by convective flow alone without core damage, then it was a seriously defective design. Given that the plant is fairly new, that seems very unlikely.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2007 05:51 am
Sentences in red...what a big fat phucking surprise.
Quote:
Challenge to Emissions Rule Is Set to Start

The fight over cars and carbon dioxide moves today from the Supreme Court to a federal courtroom in Burlington, Vt., in a case that automakers say could reshape vehicles sold on the East and West Coasts.

The industry is suing to block a 2004 California regulation on global warming from taking effect. The rule would require a 30 percent cut in emissions of greenhouse gases from cars and trucks sold in Vermont and New York, which follow California's air quality rules, to be fully phased in by the 2016 model year.

In court filings, automakers have argued that regulating the emissions will increase pollution, cause more traffic deaths and lead domestic automakers to stop selling most of their passenger models in states that adopt such regulations.

The companies have disputed that global warming is a problem, even though they have acknowledged it in different forums as a serious problem. And they tried, mostly unsuccessfully, to close much of this case to the public.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/us/10dioxide.html
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2007 03:27 pm
Gosh Bernie, that comes dangerously close to heresy! Think of it -- they expressed an opinion and an argument to back it up that flies in the face of the dogmas of the GW cult. No punishment is too much for such a crime.

Where have we all seen this sort of thing before?

I am constantly amused that so many people who know so little about the subject are so certain they know and understand the whole truth of it -- an (imagined) 'truth' that is completely outside the domain of their experience.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2007 03:44 pm
Yes, George. The board of directors at GM...experts on the science of global warming. And talk about objectivity. Saints...true saints.
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Avatar ADV
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Apr, 2007 04:56 pm
Be fair, though. It doesn't cost that scientist a damn dime to say "we need to act now on global warming, even though we don't really have a good idea on how much we need to do or even if it will do any good at all." In fact, he's on the receiving end of grant money. But GM has to fork up the design money even if meeting the regulation is completely impossible, or else just close up operations in those states. They don't have a responsibility to be objective - it's directly affecting their interests, they're representing those interests.

If that scientist is wrong, he shrugs, says "okay, guess I was wrong," and goes on to another area of research. But nobody's proposing to pay GM back (if they're even still around - we're not talking about a healthy company.)

The idea of local regulation for contributions to global warming is, if I can put it bluntly, somewhat silly. Unlike other areas of pollution, where local pollutants affect the local population, CO2 emissions have more or less an equal effect everywhere, no matter where they're sourced.
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