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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 01:31 pm
At least that's a treaty, the US signed and ratified ... in 1992 :wink:
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 01:33 pm
sorry to have to tell you : it's bloody cold in eastern ontario !
snowing on-and-off for the last few days .
i believe the proper term is "climate change" , is it not ?
btw we did have an unusually warm january - somebody seems to be monkeying around with the thermostat .
last year it was PLUS 9 C on april 7 , today it's MINUS 2 C with a nasty wind out of the north-east Shocked
wore my parka this morning .
hbg
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 01:56 pm
It has been snowing off and on all day in Albuquerque too and we're a far sight closer to the equator than anywhere in Canada. Snow during intermittant Aprils is not at all unheard of here, but we did expect some benefit from global warming for Easter weekend. Sad
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 01:59 pm
Though it became a bit colder the last couple of days, it's still too warm, not only in average.

Seems, everone gets for Easter what she/he deserves. :wink:
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 02:32 pm
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/uschill.gif
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 03:15 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Naturally much of the cost of global warming, and fighting it, depends on how severe your predictions about the effects of GW will be.

The economists I have read all start with the IPCC numbers for global warming. Then they ask: "If global warming lies in the range that the IPCC projects, what will its cost be?" My impression is that the economists who publish on this issue behave much better about the scientific division of labor than climatologists tend to do.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 03:25 pm
I'm all for nuclear technology. Build as many of those plants as we can afford.

We do need to keep investing time/money/energy into finding a clean, plentiful, and renewable energy source though. Our worldwide energy needs are not going to just go away.

And as far as the 'Why should the US do it if China and India aren't'.....well the answer there is simple. We can afford to; there is a market for this technology (anyone see "Who killed the electric car?"); we need to be the leaders in this technology so we can export it to combat our trade deficit; and nothing breeds invention like necessity. If we are able to develop a clean, cheap, renewable energy resource then China/India won't need to build coal power plants.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 03:29 pm
Oh, and I love the "It's colder today than it normally is, therefore global warming doesn't exist" talking points. It really says a lot, not on the surface, but more subtly.
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Avatar ADV
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 04:42 pm
maporsche wrote:
I'm all for nuclear technology. Build as many of those plants as we can afford.

We do need to keep investing time/money/energy into finding a clean, plentiful, and renewable energy source though. Our worldwide energy needs are not going to just go away.

And as far as the 'Why should the US do it if China and India aren't'.....well the answer there is simple. We can afford to; there is a market for this technology (anyone see "Who killed the electric car?"); we need to be the leaders in this technology so we can export it to combat our trade deficit; and nothing breeds invention like necessity. If we are able to develop a clean, cheap, renewable energy resource then China/India won't need to build coal power plants.


Yes, well, obviously if someone develops a cheap, clean, renewable energy source, then we don't worry about this anymore. That's kind of a cop-out, though - surely you're not saying that we have no choice but to develop a cheap, clean, renewable source of energy and all other efforts to combat global warming are misguided? (Or possibly you are, in which case, I can't really argue with you. ;p)

Even so, committing increased funding doesn't necessarily mean that we'll get the technology in return - this isn't Civilization we're playing here, heh. Some technical problems are genuinely difficult. They're not remaining unsolved because we're somehow failing to fund efforts to solve them, but because they require a fundamental breakthrough of one kind or another that we just haven't managed yet. Of course, that sort of thing is a lot more likely if we have many different projects working on different approaches to the problem...

But that's not an emissions-centric approach. That's not an "everybody has to do your bit" approach. It's certainly not a reason to panic - I mean, we don't have a cure for cancer, and certainly cancer is going to end the lives of more people in the next century than global warming, but you don't see anyone proposing international limits on the consumption of fast food. (Well, not seriously.) But global warming is absolutely being marketed as "imminent disaster unless we all act now". So what precisely is prescribed under the "act now"? What, specifically, should be done in the absence of the gee-whiz-cool technology that would render this argument unnecessary?

Once you've laid out that proposal, then we can judge it on the merits. It may be too expensive to do under any circumstances - if the solution is more expensive than all but the most unlikely worst-case scenarios, we're simply not going to do it. It may not be too expensive, but require political compromises from people that we cannot make to undertake those compromises - that's going to be China and India and other impoverished third-world nations, for whom the question of industrialization isn't academic or historical. Also, it's entirely possible that your proposed solution could not possibly work - the equivalent of wearing a propeller beanie in order to attempt to fly.

I worry that current anti-global-warming proposals have ALL THREE of these defects... that they're too expensive to undertake, that they require the cooperation of people who cannot be made to cooperate short of outright invasion, and that even if we did, it wouldn't actually do the job!

So if we're looking for technological solutions, that's okay, we can manage that. Increase the research funding, maybe set up some x-prize projects, gotcha. But then, let's throw out Kyoto and send Al Gore home and quit pretending that buying a Prius is an act of morality. ;p
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 06:25 pm
avatar wrote :

Quote:
quit pretending that buying a Prius is an act of morality. ;p


i know a number of people driving a prius and other vehicles that are thrifty in using gasoline , but have never heard them talk about being particularly moral . they just bought their cars because it suited them and they liked them - nothing special about that imo .
from 1960 to 1999 we drove small and thrifty VW's - starting with two beetles - , we didn't want to display our morality but simply wanted inexpensive cars that gave good mileage .

imo taking some simple measures can reap good benefits .
as a former president of american airlines said : "we saved millions of dollars - $25 at a time ! " .
similarly we can probably cut gasoline consumption and emissions "a few gallons/liters at a time" . not only would it cut emissions , it would save as money to boot - nothing wrong with that imo .
when i walk into shopping centers that are too cold in the summer and too hot in summer , when i see people lighting outside christmas trees with 100's of lights - that nobody seems to notice - , when i see carlots with lights blazing all night , i ask myself : what is the purpose of it ?
if people would throw money out the window , one would likely think that they are crazy - but is what i described any different ?
i don't think we need to wear "hairshirts" , but do we need to waste that much of our resources ?
hbg
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 7 Apr, 2007 09:32 pm
maporsche wrote:
I'm all for nuclear technology. Build as many of those plants as we can afford.

Thank the tree huggers for killing the expansion of nuclear in the U.S. more than 20 years ago.

Quote:
...... and nothing breeds invention like necessity. ......


"necessity" is just now coming over the horizon. No need to panic. Even now, oil continues to be the most efficient engine to drive the economies of the world. As oil becomes pricier, harder to find or produce, and shorter in supply, other viable energy sources will grow to increasingly replace it or at least to legitimately compete with it. Oil will probably be around as a valuable energy source for at least decades, and also as a resource for the production of products for a long long time.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2007 07:11 am
okie wrote:

Quote:
...... and nothing breeds invention like necessity. ......


"necessity" is just now coming over the horizon. No need to panic. Even now, oil continues to be the most efficient engine to drive the economies of the world. As oil becomes pricier, harder to find or produce, and shorter in supply, other viable energy sources will grow to increasingly replace it or at least to legitimately compete with it. Oil will probably be around as a valuable energy source for at least decades, and also as a resource for the production of products for a long long time.


I don't see anything efficient about burning oil to make energy. If by efficient, you mean 'cheap' then that's a different story, but as far as energy conversion, you're wrong.

I'm concerned that the 'other viable energy source' you reference above will not be available when oil eventually runs out. It seems to me that the funding to find this source is a political football that gets tossed around depending on who's in charge.

I hope we hit $4.00/gal gas this summer, then $5.00 next summer, then $10.00 the summer after that.
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Avatar ADV
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2007 10:49 am
Actually, running out of oil would probably be worse for global warming, precisely because we're not in danger of running out of ANY oil; there's plenty of oil that is extractable from, for example, tar shale. Canada's deposits of that contain more oil than Saudi Arabia does of crude oil. Only problem is, extracting it is a lot more expensive and energy-intensive than sticking a pipe in a hole and turning on a pump. (Yes, yes, real world oil drilling is harder. But it's still a lot easier than shale extraction!)

So if oil prices increase, say, 50% from current totals, and there's a good chance that they won't just bounce back down from that level, shale extraction becomes economically viable even with today's technology. (And you can bet that plenty of people are attempting to figure out how to get the stuff out cheaper!) Once that happens, oil prices are unlikely to further increase for a long time - there's a lot of shale out there.

So why would that be worse for the environment? Shale extraction (currently) takes a LOT more energy than drilling. I've seen it analogized to a three-steps-forward, one-step-back thing - you have to spend about 33% of the energy you get to get it. That energy expenditure represents increased emissions of CO2 - and a lot of them!

Of course, at the higher oil price, other energy sources are relatively more economical. However, that's as true of the big dirty ones (coal!) as it would be of solar and wind power...
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2007 12:06 pm
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2007 07:06 pm
maporsche wrote:
okie wrote:

Quote:
...... and nothing breeds invention like necessity. ......


"necessity" is just now coming over the horizon. No need to panic. Even now, oil continues to be the most efficient engine to drive the economies of the world. As oil becomes pricier, harder to find or produce, and shorter in supply, other viable energy sources will grow to increasingly replace it or at least to legitimately compete with it. Oil will probably be around as a valuable energy source for at least decades, and also as a resource for the production of products for a long long time.


I don't see anything efficient about burning oil to make energy. If by efficient, you mean 'cheap' then that's a different story, but as far as energy conversion, you're wrong.

Actually, "cheap" or "cheapest" as defined by the free market usually determines or reflects what is most efficient and less damaging to the environment, in my opinion. For example, there is disagreement surrounding ethanol, but it apparently takes almost as much energy to produce as it produces. Some say more energy, some say somewhat less. So, if it takes almost as much energy to produce as it produces, there is nothing efficient about it, and tractors plowing, planting, and harvesting fields of corn, then trucks or trains transporting to the plants all burn more fossil fuels to produce more emissions. Cost of a product usually determines the amount of effort or activity required to develop and produce the product, and all of those efforts and activities also have inherent impacts.

Wind energy and solar are often assumed to have no impacts, but for the massive production of solar and wind generators needed to replace oil, there is still a reason for the cost of these sources, and when examined more closely, cost results from the production, transportation, maintainance, and disposal of the materials associated with it, and they may not be as benign as assumed. I do believe solar and wind can be expanded considerably, however, each carry special problems and considerations. Even in a country like Denmark where wind is optimum throughout the country, and the source has been well promoted and developed, the electricity production does not surpass around 1/3 of the total.

An example of fossil fuels being efficient is a sign somewhere in Kansas that I saw that said one good gas well can provide enough energy for more than 6,000 homes. I don't know what you think about it but that strikes me as being an extremely efficient source of energy.

Often, some alternative energy source seems attractive, but if you consider the impacts of that source if developed to the extent necessary to fuel everything that oil and gas does now, I doubt the source would appear nearly as attractive and also would not be found to be so benign in terms of its environmental impact.

Quote:
I'm concerned that the 'other viable energy source' you reference above will not be available when oil eventually runs out. It seems to me that the funding to find this source is a political football that gets tossed around depending on who's in charge.

I hope we hit $4.00/gal gas this summer, then $5.00 next summer, then $10.00 the summer after that.


Increasing price is both a positive and a negative. I cannot agree that I hope it goes to $10, but I do hope it rises gradually and modestly and I agree an increase is probably in our best interest, as it is the only fool proof factor that really drives technological innovation, and when it happens, thank the free market for doing it for us.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2007 07:10 pm
Foxfyre wrote:


As usual, your opinions have clear thinking, Foxfyre.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2007 07:19 pm
Something I forgot to mention about ethanol, the government is artificially propping up the expansion of this industry by giving significant tax breaks, etc, thus not allowing the free market to truly determine the cost of ethanol. Great for farmers, but in the long term - is it a good thing to artificially expand an industry that is highly inefficient?

I realize the government is involved in all kinds of things artificially, but the ethanol involvement may be more pronounced, thus skewing what would and should happen otherwise.

Oil companies receive breaks for depletion of oil fields, but I think this is an example of being deserved, just as any business receives credit for depleted inventories of products or merchandise.
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 8 Apr, 2007 07:52 pm
Avatar ADV wrote:
Actually, running out of oil would probably be worse for global warming, precisely because we're not in danger of running out of ANY oil; there's plenty of oil that is extractable from, for example, tar shale. Canada's deposits of that contain more oil than Saudi Arabia does of crude oil. Only problem is, extracting it is a lot more expensive and energy-intensive than sticking a pipe in a hole and turning on a pump. (Yes, yes, real world oil drilling is harder. But it's still a lot easier than shale extraction!)

So if oil prices increase, say, 50% from current totals, and there's a good chance that they won't just bounce back down from that level, shale extraction becomes economically viable even with today's technology. (And you can bet that plenty of people are attempting to figure out how to get the stuff out cheaper!) Once that happens, oil prices are unlikely to further increase for a long time - there's a lot of shale out there.

So why would that be worse for the environment? Shale extraction (currently) takes a LOT more energy than drilling. I've seen it analogized to a three-steps-forward, one-step-back thing - you have to spend about 33% of the energy you get to get it. That energy expenditure represents increased emissions of CO2 - and a lot of them!

Of course, at the higher oil price, other energy sources are relatively more economical. However, that's as true of the big dirty ones (coal!) as it would be of solar and wind power...


All good points. Thanks for the input.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 04:57 am
Quote:
Climate change

All washed up
Apr 6th 2007
From Economist.com

As the evidence of global warming proliferates, so do the nasty consequences

damned commie rag doing the alarmist thing and forwarding doomism.
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8966271
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Apr, 2007 09:48 am
Are you starting to see the light, blatham?

I love the picture of mudcracks on your link. I remember those from National Geographics magazines back in the 50's, usually of places in Africa, except then it was for a different reason, called a "drought." If you have ever collected fossils, you can find fossil mudcracks a few million years old in fact.
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