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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Apr, 2007 03:40 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
All they have to do now is build 100 more like it (11MW each) and they will have the equivalent of a single coal-fired or nuclear powerplant.
Here is Mühleberg, a very "small" 355 MWe (1 MW thermal) nuclear power plant embedded in the bucolic Swiss countryside. It must take 5 hectares, well hidden behind trees (I have visited it when I was in Bern).
And its on-time is more than 95% whereas for solar, it's less than 50%. If you want to light up your Christmas tree for you family meeting, don't count on solar.


I let this Solar Folly to desertic southern Spain. For my green backyard, I prefer my roof solar water heater and a nuclear plant with its minute footprint and its high tech workers. I don't want to see huge landscapes clogged with hideous undependable techno fixes instead of being grazed by cows or horses or given back to wilderness.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Apr, 2007 04:05 pm
This remind me a discussion I had with Hamburger about the "difficulties" of the Insurance Industrie due to GW Laughing Laughing Laughing
Hamburger, tell your in-law I want my overbilled premium back. Laughing

Source
Quote:
Fair weather brings strong profit for Lloyds of London

LONDON: Lloyd's of London, the world's biggest insurance market, on Thursday reported a pretax profit of 3.66 billion pounds (€5.4 billion, US$7.2 billion
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Apr, 2007 04:53 pm
The new forecast is out. I didn't start listening until it was halfway through, however, so I'm not sure whether it predicted 17 named storms or that 17 named storms would threaten the U.S.A. I do recall they are putting the odds at 78% that the USA will be hit by a major hurricane this year, and of course the term 'global warming' was evoked at some point in the brief monologue.

I wonder if it is rather unusual for the USA to NOT be hit by a major storm in any given year? That 78% may be low.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 3 Apr, 2007 11:30 pm
From "America's newspaper (page A1 & A10, online report


Quote:
[...]
To avoid global warming, scientists and environmentalists say emissions must be cut by as much as 90 percent below 1990 levels. The biggest reductions in use of oil, coal and other fossil fuels would be required in the United States because the nation is by far the world's biggest energy consumer and producer of carbon emissions -- consuming one-fourth of the world's energy though it has only one-20th of the world's population.
Though the spirit may be willing, the flesh is weak. The institute's report found that few of the "green" cities have significantly increased spending on more efficient buildings or transportation systems despite their commitment to the Kyoto goals, and the ones that have made progress have done so because they rely on emissions-free hydroelectric power plants that have been in place for decades or were aided by state and federal fuel-efficiency mandates.
[...]
Why are Americans so poor at saving energy despite good intentions? One reason is that the heavy use of energy has made life easier for most Americans and is ingrained in the American lifestyle -- from turning on the air conditioner as soon as the temperature hits 80 degrees to using the elevator instead of the stairs and driving cars to work instead of walking or using mass transit.
[...]
Rather than drive less or turn down the thermostat, surveys show that Americans want Congress to curb energy demand by requiring businesses to cut emissions and automakers to make more fuel-efficient cars. Yet most consumers are not buying efficient cars and other available products. Sales of hybrid gas-electric cars are growing rapidly, for example, but constitute 1.4 percent of U.S. vehicle sales.
Small, high-mileage vehicles that are big sellers in Europe and Japan find few takers here. Evidently, Americans are hoping that revolutions in low-carbon fuels will enable them to keep driving big cars. But cars that operate on clean fuels such as hydrogen, cellulosic ethanol or solar energy are in the experimental phase and would require technological breakthroughs to be available to the mass market -- something energy analysts say could take years to decades.


http://i9.tinypic.com/4i6krr9.jpg
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 02:05 am
Foxfyre wrote:
The new forecast is out. I didn't start listening until it was halfway through, however, so I'm not sure whether it predicted 17 named storms or that 17 named storms would threaten the U.S.A. I do recall they are putting the odds at 78% that the USA will be hit by a major hurricane this year, and of course the term 'global warming' was evoked at some point in the brief monologue.

I wonder if it is rather unusual for the USA to NOT be hit by a major storm in any given year? That 78% may be low.


The Colorado State report is the first of the three traditional hurricane forecasts:
http://i14.tinypic.com/2a7u1j4.jpg
source: Chicago Tribune, 04.04.07, page 3
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 04:18 am
Under the heading of "pine beetle unexpected ramifications"... a home town friend of mine, now retired, who worked at the Canadian Fish and Wildlife Service for forty years writes:
Quote:
Snow-pack in the Fraser River Watershed is 120% to 150% above the average. Its the third highest on record (began 1954?). Recent information suggests that the Beetle killed pines will increase risk of quick runoff since those forests have lost their ability to hold back water. Resulting higher peak flows may create increased risk for erosion which then fills the Fraser channel in the lower gradient areas. Also in November a heavy rainfall triggered a series of slope failures within the Thompson River watershed causing huge volumes of gravel/rock to in-fill the Thompson River channel. This will eventually deposit in the low gradient sections of the Fraser channel. Then as dust mixed in water it will be carried to sea.

The Thompson is an inland river which feeds into the Fraser River. Vancouver is situated at the Fraser Delta. What Bruce is talking about here could have significant consequences for salmon spawning habitat (the river bed).

The point being that a single element (the pine beetle) arisen due to global warming can have very far-reaching ramifications for other elements in its ecosystem (river and ocean) which appear only after the fact but which can have significant ripple effects affecting, finally, human live ways.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 05:22 am
Let me see if I've got this right. Global warming has caused an unusually heavy accumulation of winter snow, which, together with the pine beetle infestation, also a product of global warming, will yield increased river runoff which will harm salmon hatcheries on Vancouver island.

Why don't I see the connection?

The Federal alternative minimum tax took a bigger bite out of my income this year than last. I wonder if that is not also a result of global warming?
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 06:00 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Let me see if I've got this right. Global warming has caused an unusually heavy accumulation of winter snow, which, together with the pine beetle infestation, also a product of global warming, will yield increased river runoff which will harm salmon hatcheries on Vancouver island.

Why don't I see the connection?

The Federal alternative minimum tax took a bigger bite out of my income this year than last. I wonder if that is not also a result of global warming?


Nig nog. I shall have my nutritionist send you information on how to slow the cognitive decline attendent with our (your more than mine) years (ps, if he doesn't mention it, there are significant aroma-therapeudic consequences to a life of snuffing in gunpowder rather than patchouli oil and hashish).

The point isn't snowfall. The point relates to a further consequence of the pine beetle's spread (which is facilitated by warming). And that relates to an earlier point regarding how estimations of costs to human societies from GW can easily fail to account for unforseen ramifications cascading through ecological systems. Nig nog.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 03:51 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Let me see if I've got this right. Global warming has caused an unusually heavy accumulation of winter snow, which, together with the pine beetle infestation, also a product of global warming, will yield increased river runoff which will harm salmon hatcheries on Vancouver island.

Why don't I see the connection?

The connection is much more subtle than thought hence the reason it didn't pop up to your eyes Georges. Lastest coupled ocean-land-cryosphere models suggest that, at least locally for N-S-W-E Canada (excluding Quebec whose liberal credentials are impeccable), pine beetle infestation IS responsible for glocal (unles it's lobal) warming.

The climatologists who made this discovery need more funding to investigate the cascade of implications of such causation which are for the moment of everybody's guess.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 04:09 pm
You're a nig nog too.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 04:09 pm
blatham wrote:
And that relates to an earlier point regarding how estimations of costs to human societies from GW can easily fail to account for unforseen ramifications cascading through ecological systems. Nig nog.
Something creeps me out people are pondering possible ramifications of a pest infestation on humans in an undeterminate future whereas you have NOW tens of thousands dying of hunger in Darfour, 3 millions (!) plus Zimbawian refugees in S Africa (much less spectacular than 50 Vanatuans "climatic refugees" I must concede), ten of thousands of Karen refugees herded in Northern Thailand internment camps, slavery (yes slavery) in Mauritania, not to say more than 1 million deaths PER YEAR of malaria, etc, etc...

It reminds of Jackie Chan's films where the malicious little jumping man stares as if a menace is coming from the left (or the right depending on your political motives) which distracts his opponent to look at the same direction and then delivers a knocking right slap that makes the other guy spent the rest of the night looking for his broken teeths. Diversion for short.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 04:15 pm
miniTAX wrote:
blatham wrote:
And that relates to an earlier point regarding how estimations of costs to human societies from GW can easily fail to account for unforseen ramifications cascading through ecological systems. Nig nog.
Something creeps me out people are pondering possible ramifications of a pest infestation on humans in an undeterminate future whereas you have NOW tens of thousands dying of hunger in Darfour, 3 millions (!) plus Zimbawian refugees in S Africa (much less spectacular than 50 Vanatuans "climatic refugees" I must concede), ten of thousands of Karen refugees herded in Northern Thailand internment camps, slavery (yes slavery) in Mauritania, not to say more than 1 million deaths PER YEAR of malaria, etc, etc...

It reminds of Jackie Chan's films where the malicious little jumping man stares as if a menace is coming from the left (or the right depending on your political motives) which distracts his opponent to look at the same direction and then delivers a knocking right slap that makes the other guy spent the rest of the night looking for his broken teeths. Diversion for short.


That there may be more immediate situations of human suffering has no relevance to what we humans morally ought to be doing as regards GW. Though Darfur is a unimaginable tragedy doesn't mean that your local police force ought to park their cars and grab the nearest plane to Africa.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 04:20 pm
blatham wrote:
That there may be more immediate situations of human suffering has no relevance to what we humans morally ought to be doing as regards GW. Though Darfur is a unimaginable tragedy doesn't mean that your local police force ought to park their cars and grab the nearest plane to Africa.
The police for sure NO (we still need them to catch illegal immigrants coming from Darfour). But what about David Suzuki and all the iddle global warmers ? I'd prefer human warmers instead.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 04:36 pm
Back from Paris (didn't go anywhere near the Gare du Nord, speaking of immigration from Darfur) >

Quote:
"A nouveau hier soir, l'amalgame qui est fait entre identité nationale, immigration et fraude ne fait pas honneur à ce candidat", a-t-il ajouté, répétant que le terme "ignoble" n'avait pas été employé par Ségolène Royal à l'encontre personnelle de Nicolas Sarkozy mais à propos de "l'amalgame" fait selon elle entre immigration et identité nationale.

A l'inverse, pour Christian Estrosi, proche du candidat de l'UMP, c'est la candidate PS qui "perd ses nerfs et son sang-froid" et a démontré qu'elle était "plus du côté des voyous que des victimes" après les événements de la gare du Nord à Paris.
http://www.lexpress.fr/info/infojour/reuters.asp?id=41198&1907



> I'd like to ask the chances of Le Pen in the first round, specifically if only he and Sarkozy will be left, as happened last election? Thank you!
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 04:45 pm
LOL High Seas, my translator is on the other computer. Can you translate that for we language challenged whose primary knowledge of French is in food terms and words that would violate TOS?
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 05:22 pm
High Seas wrote:
> I'd like to ask the chances of Le Pen in the first round, specifically if only he and Sarkozy will be left, as happened last election? Thank you!
Lepen is now at about 13% in polls. But his constituency, which doesn't readily confess voting for an extreme-right party is rather around 20% (!) very near to Royal's 23% (Sarkozy is at 26%).

His chances are not bad in the current heated immigration context, but a little bit lower than in 2002 since the left is less split now (in 2002, there was Taubira & Chevenement who were candidates themselves which dispersed the Parti Socialiste's votes). It depens alot on how Royal will limit the number of her many gaffes and my crystall ball would say Lepen chances to reach the final would be 40% (maybe a betting site would tell you better, British bookmakers are making good money with this French presidential election and when people involve hard money, they tend to better analyze information).

Anyway, with such an uncertain score for the first round, that voting day is not a hunting or travelling Sunday even if as a libertarian (in France, greedy men like me are called ultra-liberal, yes liberal, lol), I don't place much hope on the elections since my choice is restricted to Sarkozy the interventionist and Royal, the interventionist power ten, not counting the other 5 Trotskyst candidates for the decorum. A little bit like the Brits' choice for next PM between Gordon the GWming hysterical and Cameron the hysterical GWmer.
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miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 05:26 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
LOL High Seas, my translator is on the other computer. Can you translate that for we language challenged whose primary knowledge of French is in food terms and words that would violate TOS?
Just oral skirmishes between the 2 main candidates about immigration. A blip on the campaign radar compared to the much more vociferous and marketing based elections in the US or in Italy (as an example, private funding for candidates here is forbidden. Costs are covered by ... taxpayers).
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 05:30 pm
miniTAX wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
LOL High Seas, my translator is on the other computer. Can you translate that for we language challenged whose primary knowledge of French is in food terms and words that would violate TOS?
Just oral skirmishes between the 2 main candidates about immigration. A blip on the campaign radar compared to the much more vociferous and marketing based elections in the US or in Italy (as an example, private funding for candidates is forbidden. Costs are covered by ... taxpayers).


With sometimes productive and sometimes heated discussions on the immigration thread, I've wondered if other countries were having as vitriolic debates as we are having on immigration issues here? Are the populations as divided?

For that matter, is the average 'man in the street' in France or Europe in general seriously consumed with the global warming schtick? It honestly rarely comes up in day to day conversations here, at least in the places where I go.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 06:01 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
With sometimes productive and sometimes heated discussions on the immigration thread, I've wondered if other countries were having as vitriolic debates as we are having on immigration issues here? Are the populations as divided?
The general attitude in France is the casual "immigration, what's problem?". A ten'th of what a "moderate" (for examle democrat Wink ) American view would be considered a fascist position. Recent example, an illegal Chinese man was controlled in a pub next to a school. He was waiting for his kid. He was arrested by the police. Parents started a riot, taking the defense of the man AGAINST the police. The school headteacher was even arrested for rebellion (but later released without any charge). All the left assimilated this event with deportation using the word "rafles" (or massive deportation of Jews in WW2), for just ONE illegal !.
[greedy mode on]I'm not against immigration since our demographics is not favorable for the next years contrary to the booming US. Hey, who'll pay my pension. [/greedy mode off]But a lot of people are fed up with insecurity and the lack of integration of 2nd generation arab immigrants (the far East immigrants are as always readily integrated, I even have a Vietnamese in law) and the politicians use this as an excuse not to enforce the law in general (find a scapegoat and people will forget the rest of the problems)


Foxfyre wrote:
For that matter, is the average 'man in the street' in France or Europe in general seriously consumed with the global warming schtick? It honestly rarely comes up in day to day conversations here, at least in the places where I go.
In Europe in general, the public is entirely brainwashed as to the GW schtick, the hopeless of all must be the Brits. We French have 80% of our electricity made by nuclear and as the world second agricultural product exporter have vast potentials for biodiesel so there is not much change in our energy habits so the public remains rather indifferent. In fact, we must be a little bit like anybody else in the world concerning GW: a lot of talk, a lot of donothing, inside the frame of a politicised science and a government always looking for inventive ways to hatch new taxes.
A little bit like the joke:
Joe: GW will rock our lives. What's worse for you, unconsciousness or indifference ?
John : Don't know, don't care. Give me another drink.

What people forget is GW would go away, the taxes will remain Crying or Very sad
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Apr, 2007 06:15 pm
MiniTax writes
Quote:
What people forget is GW would go away, the taxes will remain Sad
0 Replies
 
 

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