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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 04:14 am
When I read through the data as follows, and it seems to be supported by so many of the other skeptics, I can't see why it shouldn't be included in the debate. This group does not deny that global warming is occurring no do they deny that at least some of it or maybe a lot of the CO2 levels in the atmosphere are a result of anthropogenic causes.

They strongly question the concusions of what the higher CO2 levels mean in the big picture, however. (Note to the consensus lovers: you might want to read through the HUGE number of people who signed onto this scientitic opinion that supported a petition for the USA to reject Kyoto. No idea whether any or all of the signatories are scientists however.)

The following is quoted from the website:
The computer climate models upon which ''global warming'' is based have substantial uncertainties. This is not surprising, since the climate is a coupled, non-linear dynamical system in layman's terms, a very complex one. Figure 10 summarizes some of the difficulties by comparing the radiative CO2 greenhouse effect with correction factors and uncertainties in some of the parameters in the computer climate calculations. Other factors, too, such as the effects of volcanoes, cannot now be reliably computer modeled.

Figure 11 compares the trend in atmospheric temperatures predicted by computer models adopted by the IPCC with that actually observed during the past 19 years those years in which the highest atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs have occurred.

In effect, an experiment has been performed on the Earth during the past half-century an experiment that includes all of the complex factors and feedback effects that determine the Earth's temperature and climate. Since 1940, atmospheric GHGs have risen substantially. Yet atmospheric temperatures have not risen. In fact, during the 19 years with the highest atmospheric levels of CO2 and other GHGs, temperatures have fallen.

http://www.oism.org/pproject/fig11.gif
Figure 11:
Global annual lower tropospheric temperatures as measured by satellite MSU between latitudes 83 N and 83 S (17, 18) plotted as deviations from the 1979 value. The trend line of these experimental measurements is compared with the corresponding trend line predicted by International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) computer climate models (14).

Not only has the global warming hypothesis failed the experimental test; it is theoretically flawed as well. It can reasonably be argued that cooling from negative physical and biological feedbacks to GHGs will nullify the initial temperature rise (26, 30).

The reasons for this failure of the computer climate models are subjects of scientific debate. For example, water vapor is the largest contributor to the overall greenhouse effect (31). It has been suggested that the computer climate models treat feedbacks related to water vapor incorrectly (27, 32).

The global warming hypothesis is not based upon the radiative properties of the GHGs themselves. It is based entirely upon a small initial increase in temperature caused by GHGs and a large theoretical amplification of that temperature change. Any comparable temperature increase from another cause would produce the same outcome from the calculations.

At present, science does not have comprehensive quantitative knowledge about the Earth's atmosphere. Very few of the relevant parameters are known with enough rigor to permit reliable theoretical calculations. Each hypothesis must be judged by empirical results. The global warming hypothesis has been thoroughly evaluated. It does not agree with the data and is, therefore, not validated.

http://www.oism.org/pproject/fig12.gif
Figure 12: Eleven-year moving average of global surface temperature, as estimated by NASA GISS (23, 33, and 34), plotted as deviation from 1890 (left axis and light line), as compared with atmospheric CO2 (right axis and dark line) (2). Approximately 82% of the increase in CO2 occurred after the temperature maximum in 1940, as is shown in figure 1.
SOURCE
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 05:31 am
george said
Quote:
I know bernie. That means he really liked it. I did too.


I did. And, ironically, Marin County is one of the few California counties I have not driven through while smoking a joint and listening to Creedence. Have you rented The Big Liebowski yet? I have it on very good authority (there you go) that you and I make a fine match for the two Liebowskis portrayed.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 05:42 am
Thomas wrote:
blatham wrote:
But it is quite a different thing to hold that where a preponderance of experts in a field concur that X is probable, then it is entirely reasonable to think that they may well have it right and less reasonable to believe that a contrarian minority has it right.

I'm afraid in my last answer to this paragraph, I got distracted from making the points I wanted to make. Here's another try.

1) Since we want science to inform our public policy, and since most citizens aren't scientists, it's inevitable that we use arguments from the authority of scientists. This is also fair, as long as the scientific community continues to allocate positions of authority to scientists who are good at figuring out facts. Currently I see no problem with this constraint.

2) It's important to keep in mind that a scientist's proper authority is limited to the specific field that he works in. This is important because global warming policies affect many scientific fields. Climatologists have authority to tell us that global warming is real, and that it's man made. Economists have expertise in answering what material damage global warming will cause, what the cost of preventing it is, and how to make good decisions under uncertainty. Neither climatologists nor economists are experts on the ethics of it all.

So even if you accept that we need arguments from authority in the global warming debate, you still have to be careful about scientists exceeding the bounds of their proper authority.


thomas

I don't have a disagreement with your understanding here of how the argument from authority fallacy applies. Taking a statement from a geologist, say, on relative costs as being true would be an instance of that fallacy. And yes, neither community ought to be considered experts on the ethics of the matter...ethical experts notably hard to isolate other than myself.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 05:47 am
re the Durkin programme and fox's post above...
Quote:

Mr Durkin's film argued that most global warming over the past century occurred between 1900 and 1940 and that there was a period of cooling between 1940 and 1975 when the post-war economic boom was under way. This showed, he said, that global warming had little to do with industrial emissions of carbon dioxide.

The programme-makers labelled the source of the world temperature data as "Nasa" but when we inquired about where we could find this information, we received an email through Wag TV's PR consultant saying that the graph was drawn from a 1998 diagram published in an obscure journal called Medical Sentinel. The authors of the paper are well-known climate sceptics who were funded by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine and the George C Marshall Institute, a right-wing Washington think-tank.

However, there are no diagrams in the paper that accurately compare with the C4 graph. The nearest comparison is a diagram of "terrestrial northern hemisphere" temperatures - which refers only to data gathered by weather stations in the top one third of the globe.

However, further inquiries revealed that the C4 graph was based on a diagram in another paper produced as part of a "petition project" by the same group of climate sceptics. This diagram was itself based on long out-of-date information on terrestrial temperatures compiled by Nasa scientists.
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2355956.ece

A list of funders for the George C Marshall Institute...
Quote:
Funding
The Institute received $5,577,803 in 77 separate grants from only five foundations between 1985 and 2001 [2]

Earhart Foundation
John M. Olin Foundation, Inc.
Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation
Scaife Foundations (Sarah Mellon Scaife, Carthage)
During 2002, ExxonMobil donated $90,000 to the Institute, $80,000 of which was for the "Global Climate Change Program". [3]

The George C. Marshall Institute no longer shows an overview of recent funders, but in 2000 they listed:

Richard Lounsbery Foundation
Sarah Scaife Foundation
Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation
American Standard Companies
Exxon Education Foundation
H.B. Earhart Foundation
John M. Olin Foundation
Gelman Education Foundation (Charles Gelman)
Fieldstead Foundation
Historical Research Foundation
Charles and Jean Brunie Foundation
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=George_C._Marshall_Institute
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 05:51 am
And once again, here's the background data on the Oregon Institute...
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Oregon_Institute_of_Science_and_Medicine
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 07:05 am
Oh, for goodness sake. Can we at least use up to the date information?
Posting discredited 'science' from 1998 doesn't make it a valid criticism of today's science Fox. It only means you are left grasping at straws after you demand that we be "careful when scientific opinion is cited with more authority than is warranted".

There is no authority in your quoted "science" Fox. It is outdated. It is proven false. There is no science there. The satellite data has since been corrected to compensate for the loss in orbit which affects the readings. I challenge you to find current data that in any way reflects what is cited in your article. It can't be done.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 07:34 am
Current Satellite data can be found here..

http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

Plot it yourself

You can find some of the info here
Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere

From the press report for the release of the above
Quote:
According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of global average temperature increase for the surface compared with higher levels in the atmosphere. This discrepancy had previously been used to challenge the validity of climate models used to detect and attribute the causes of observed climate change. This is an important revision to and update of the conclusions of earlier reports from the U.S. National Research Council and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 08:13 am
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 08:54 am
Satellite data plots temperature.

Can you not even read what you yourself posted Fox? Your first chart is troposphere temperature from the satellite MSU. None of them have anything to do with CO2.

The data the the Oregon project used in 1998 has been corrected since then. It is no longer valid data. Satellites read temperature based on the time it takes light to travel to them. It was discovered that the satellites have a deteriorating orbit so the distance being used in 1998 to determine temperature was innacurate. The data is not accurate. There have been several published papers pointing this out including ones that corrected the first correction.

If you want to use data from the time period of Kyoto then you should use all the data from that time period and not just the selected parts that have since proven to be not true. The surface readings have not yet shown to be innaccurate in 1998.

Then perhaps you could address the issue that none of those writing the paper are in the field of climatology, meteorology or any related field. Robinson is a biochemist. Baliunas is an astrophysicist. Soon is an astrophysicist. Zachary Robinson is a mathematician.

The second chart is pretty meaningless. It compares a mean for CO2 to temperature that has not been adjusted to the mean. If you adjust the temperature using the same mean that the CO2 uses you get very similar curves. Then in the area of charting you can make them do all kinds of things by simply changing the scale of one or the other. I could chart it so that the increase in temperature appears greater or less than the increase in CO2 by fiddling with the scale.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:09 am
parados wrote:
Current Satellite data can be found here..

http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

Plot it yourself

You can find some of the info here
Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere

From the press report for the release of the above
Quote:
According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of global average temperature increase for the surface compared with higher levels in the atmosphere. This discrepancy had previously been used to challenge the validity of climate models used to detect and attribute the causes of observed climate change. This is an important revision to and update of the conclusions of earlier reports from the U.S. National Research Council and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


Interesting. However it does not address the two central issues of atmospheric cooling in the post WWII era and the observed phase delay in the correlation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature, with CO2 concentrations following temperature. The report also acknowledges the existence of other unresolved discrepancies in temperature data in the tropics and the general disposition of NOAA to regard them as indicative of flaws in the data - and not in the global atmospheric model -- an interesting admission.

I don't think anyone seriously doubts the merits of studying the GW issue, or that we may find that human activity yields some net warming effects. The problem is that unreliable and somewhat extreme climatological forecasts are being made, along with demands for quick application of drastic and authoritarian economic controls, without adequate consideration of the costs of the danger avoided and the remedy applied. Moreover none of this involves any rational comparison with other risks and dangers besetting humanity , the costs of their remedies and the effect of the desired GW remedy on them.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:11 am
Quote:
The problem is that unreliable and somewhat extreme climatological forecasts are being made, along with demands for quick application of drastic and authoritarian economic controls, without adequate consideration of the costs of the danger avoided and the remedy applied.


Again with the exaggerations. Who is calling for such drastic economic controls? Why do they control my side of the debate, in your mind?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:14 am
georgeob1 wrote:

..............................................................................

parados wrote:
There is a difference between probability and predictability. Chaos theory means I can't predict where the ball on a roulette wheel will fall on a given spin. But probability theory tells me the likelyhood of it falling into the 00. If I put a second 00 on the wheel, I still can't predict based on chaos theory but I have changed the probability of the ball falling on the 00. I can quite easily figure that probability.


Not all random variables have Normal distributions (I mean the statistical definition of that term) - or even symmetrical ones.



Parados - anyone as thoroughly discredited as yourself on probability theory would do well to stay away from that topic, at least on the selfsame thread.

Our host, Blatham, will tell you about our poker-playing expedition (on an evening when Lola was out of town) in which he discovered there ain't no chaos theory involved - just that some of us will only bet on distributions we estimate to be Poisson; alas, you can't even tell binomial from Cauchy <G>
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:18 am
Ah, Cycl, the other technical giant here has also put in an appearance!

Perhaps the ridicule suffered when you mistook Hawking's statement on sulphuric acid (possibly you've heard of it by its common name of "vitriol"?) as somehow related to anthropogenic CO2 wasn't enough. I note that George OB, gentleman that he is, never corrected your claim of CO2 being "anthropomorphic" (sic) instead of (allegedly) "anthropogenic" either. Some introspection might be indicated in your case as well Smile
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:25 am
Cycloptichorn wrote:
[Again with the exaggerations. Who is calling for such drastic economic controls?

The signatories of the Kyoto treaty.

Cycloptichorn wrote:
[ Why do they control my side of the debate, in your mind?

Cycloptichorn


I don't know. Certainly the failure of any of the treaty signatories to act effectively on the positions they have taken, and who criticise us so assiduously for openly declining to take on an obligation we didn't intend to implement, have given us all some reason to doubt either the sincerity or the rationality of their actions.

I really don't know what "your side" of the debate is. The whole thing has degenerated to a cult of true believers who castigate anyone who expresses skepticism for either the AGW theories themselves or the appropriateness of the economic and political remedies they advocate. Truth and rationality are the first casualties.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:25 am
High Seas wrote:
Ah, Cycl, the other technical giant here has also put in an appearance!

Perhaps the ridicule suffered when you mistook Hawking's statement on sulphuric acid (possibly you've heard of it by its common name of "vitriol"?) as somehow related to anthropogenic CO2 wasn't enough. I note that George OB, gentleman that he is, never corrected your claim of CO2 being "anthropomorphic" (sic) instead of (allegedly) "anthropogenic" either. Some introspection might be indicated in your case as well Smile


I merely asked a question, Helen. There really isn't any reason to attack me for mis-stating 'anthropomorphic' instead of 'anthropogenic,' either; I didn't know I was using the wrong term and was just looking to help another poster out.

Was it me who mistook Hawking's statement, even? I don't remember ever talking about him at all.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:27 am
georgeob1 wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
[Again with the exaggerations. Who is calling for such drastic economic controls?

The signatories of the Kyoto treaty.

Cycloptichorn wrote:
[ Why do they control my side of the debate, in your mind?

Cycloptichorn


I don't know. Certainly the failure of any of the treaty signatories to act effectively on the positions they have taken, and who criticise us so assiduously for openly declining to take on an obligation we didn't intend to implement, have given us all some reason to doubt either the sincerity or the rationality of their actions.

I really don't know what "your side" of the debate is. The whole thing has degenerated to a cult of true believers who castigate anyone who expresses skepticism for either the AGW theories themselves or the appropriateness of the economic and political remedies they advocate. Truth and rationality are the first casualties.


I think this is rather hyperbolic. My 'side' of the debate are those who are concerned with climate change, whether it's AGW or not.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:31 am
georgeob1 wrote:


Interesting. However it does not address the two central issues of atmospheric cooling in the post WWII era
Which atmospheric cooling are you referring to?
Quote:
and the observed phase delay in the correlation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature, with CO2 concentrations following temperature.
Are you saying that CO2 increases can't precede temperature increases? On what basis can you make that statement?
Quote:

The report also acknowledges the existence of other unresolved discrepancies in temperature data in the tropics and the general disposition of NOAA to regard them as indicative of flaws in the data - and not in the global atmospheric model -- an interesting admission.
Citation for this?
Quote:

I don't think anyone seriously doubts the merits of studying the GW issue, or that we may find that human activity yields some net warming effects. The problem is that unreliable and somewhat extreme climatological forecasts are being made, along with demands for quick application of drastic and authoritarian economic controls, without adequate consideration of the costs of the danger avoided and the remedy applied. Moreover none of this involves any rational comparison with other risks and dangers besetting humanity , the costs of their remedies and the effect of the desired GW remedy on them.
Trot out that same strawman again. It seems to be the argument of choice this week.



Let me rephrase your arguments and their progression for you.
Global warming doesn't exist.
Global warming does exist but isn't caused by humans.
Global warming may be caused by humans but there isn't real evidence of that.
Global warming proponents want everyone to live in caves!!!


Please provide your estimates of the cost of remedying global warming. Be specific so we can look at your mathematical models and examine them in light of your discussion of chaos theory.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:32 am
In fact, Helen, I went back and checked -

http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=2491170#2491170

You are the one who brought up 'sulfuric acid being a greenhouse gas.' Not I. My only statement on the matter was -

Quote:

Haha, I don't think sulfur is a greenhouse gas. I think Hawking was exaggerating for effect.


http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=2491908#2491908

Don't mis-represent my positions again, thanks

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:34 am
Cycloptichorn wrote:
High Seas wrote:
Ah, Cycl, the other technical giant here has also put in an appearance!

Perhaps the ridicule suffered when you mistook Hawking's statement on sulphuric acid (possibly you've heard of it by its common name of "vitriol"?) as somehow related to anthropogenic CO2 wasn't enough. I note that George OB, gentleman that he is, never corrected your claim of CO2 being "anthropomorphic" (sic) instead of (allegedly) "anthropogenic" either. Some introspection might be indicated in your case as well Smile


I merely asked a question, Helen. There really isn't any reason to attack me for mis-stating 'anthropomorphic' instead of 'anthropogenic,' either; I didn't know I was using the wrong term and was just looking to help another poster out.

Was it me who mistook Hawking's statement, even? I don't remember ever talking about him at all.

Cycloptichorn


Cycl - no offense meant; love you too Smile
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Mar, 2007 11:39 am
High Seas wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
High Seas wrote:
Ah, Cycl, the other technical giant here has also put in an appearance!

Perhaps the ridicule suffered when you mistook Hawking's statement on sulphuric acid (possibly you've heard of it by its common name of "vitriol"?) as somehow related to anthropogenic CO2 wasn't enough. I note that George OB, gentleman that he is, never corrected your claim of CO2 being "anthropomorphic" (sic) instead of (allegedly) "anthropogenic" either. Some introspection might be indicated in your case as well Smile


I merely asked a question, Helen. There really isn't any reason to attack me for mis-stating 'anthropomorphic' instead of 'anthropogenic,' either; I didn't know I was using the wrong term and was just looking to help another poster out.

Was it me who mistook Hawking's statement, even? I don't remember ever talking about him at all.

Cycloptichorn


Cycl - no offense meant; love you too Smile


haha, okay, cheers!

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
 

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