Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

However, in some regions absorption frequencies of various GHGs overlap; [...] Methane does not have a separate and distinct absorption window for itself like other GHGs.

But molecule for molecule methane is a much more potent "warmer".

P.S. to Steve: how did you come up with your "molecule for molecule" idea for methane?

According to the SAR, methane is 21 times more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere when compared to CO2 over a 100-year time period.

Steve 41oo wrote:

But molecule for molecule methane is a much more potent "warmer".

Yes, the most dangerous methane is the heated methane freshly released by cows.
Don't believe it? A recent UN report says cows' emissions cause more damage to the Earth than cars'.

Okie - Hawking may have exaggerated only slightly, if pollution continues unabated; but at least he never claimed that sulphuric acid is a greenhouse gas, as Cyclop here presumably believes. Nice to see you too, Cyclop, and btw you got my old name right.

Steve - there isn't much doubt on atmospheric water vapor as % of all greenhouse gases; it does average 95% (as Okie said), so I don't see where your problem lies.

miniTAX wrote:

Yes, the most dangerous methane is the heated methane freshly released by cows.
Don't believe it? A recent UN report says cows' emissions cause more damage to the Earth than cars'.

MiniTax, has this problem been considered for the human population explosion? I can foresee real problems here if this subject is ever addressed. For starters, I think beans should be outlawed.

small changes to complicated systems can have big effects over time.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

small changes to complicated systems can have big effects over time.

I don't think it's true when applied to geo-physical systems. Unless you can give me an example which proves otherwise.

The Earth's climate system is very robust. It has lived thru many cataclysmic events, giant meteorites, widespread volcanic eruptions, CO2 contents more than 5x current levels, glacial-interglacial cycles, even winter-summer cycles where huge temperature diffrences occur (more than 16°C in France, to be compared to the "unprecedented" temperature rise of ... 0,6°C per century) without entering in a thermal runaway a la Al Gore.

I'm not an AGW alarmist!!! I just think that playing it safe is rarely a bad option when it comes to dealing with systems we don't understand!

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I'm not an AGW alarmist!!! I just think that playing it safe is rarely a bad option when it comes to dealing with systems we don't understand!

We live in a real world with limited resources and many priorities Cycloptichorn. Don't forget it !
You wouldn't want to pay a ultra-costly insurance premium for your house which sucks up your money for other spendings like renovation, decoration, a decent plumbing or a puppy for the kids right? So why would you do it for GW ? Because it's others' money ?

But we can see climate change coming. In fact its happening right now. We have unknowingly built our house in the middle of the railway track. But now we understand better, and many people say there's a train coming. To suggest that rebuilding off the track is too expensive is ludicrous.

What and where are your numbers ?

Kyoto was nothing more than a gesture. But it was an important one. It was an acknowledgement that we have a global problem needing global action. Is it any surprise to you that America is held in such low esteem by much of the rest of the world when the US response is first to pretend there is no problem, second to invade Iraq for its oil?

I said

"Kyoto was nothing more than a gesture. But it was an important one. It was an acknowledgement that we have a global problem needing global action."

Gestures can be important. If the world comes together to agree there is a problem, thats the first step in trying to solve it.

The American gesture in return, of one or two digits, and the bloody illegal immoral and in fact outrageous invasion of another sovereign state to secure America's oil fix is frankly shameful. Its got nothing to do with liberal/conservative. Bush is just following the Carter doctrine. The President of the United States has admitted you are a nation addicted to oil. Unfortunately for you most of your oil fix comes from countries that hate you.

Liberals, at least in this country, too often think a gesture is enough. They actually think they're doing something with a resolution that has no teeth or a 'sense of the Congress' that will not be implemented. It's enough to talk the talk. Never mind if it is nothing more than talk.

...a numerical method based on Wiener Chaos expansion and apply it to solve the stochastic Burgers and Navier-Stokes equations driven by Brownian motion. The main advantage of the Wiener Chaos approach is that it allows for the separation of random and deterministic effects in a rigorous and effective manner. The separation principle effectively reduces a stochastic equation to its associated propagator, a system of deterministic equations for the coefficients of the Wiener Chaos expansion. Simple formulas for statistical moments of the stochastic solution are presented. These formulas only involve the solutions of the propagator. We demonstrate that for short time solutions the numerical methods based on the Wiener Chaos expansion are more efficient and accurate than those based on the Monte Carlo simulations.